After looking at this game for pretty much close to an hour I've deemed this contest pretty much unbettable.
You guys have any angles tonight?
I don't trust the Browns in many spots.
I was one of the few posters here back in August who saw this Browns underachieving act coming.
Just because you add a collection of talented 'me first' head case players doesn't make you instant champions.
I can only think of George Steinbrenner's early ownership days that pulled that off.
Like I said, I don't trust the Browns especially at home.
Look at their home games so far.
Blown out of the water versus at best a mediocre Titan team.
A loss to a suddenly mediocre Rams team, and a four point loss to Seattle.
If you're going to contend for a championship you have to beat Seattle at home. That's the way I see it.
Browns only win at home was last week against a new and improved Bills squad by three, hardly a quality win.
A decent win? Yes. A quality win? no.
And I don't trust the Steelers on the road either.
At first glance that 5-4 record may seem pretty good without the services of Bell, Brown, and Ben.
This is the Steelers fourth road game, they have one win against a Charger team where half of Rivers offensive linemen were out on IR and had second teamers blocking for him.
The other two games were a blowout by 30 to the Champs, no crime in losing to New England but could you please put up a better showing? And a tough beat on the road to SF however a loss is a loss tough beat or rout.
(Most JV squads can win at home against the Bengals and the Dolphins but Pitt isn't home)
I don't trust Cleveland at home and I don't trust Pitt on the road.
I might play the Steelers if I could get +3.5 but the line isn't budging off of 3 flat.
Now before you say "Nasher, buy the half point" I'll tell you a thousand times a resounding NO!
Riddle me this fellas? If buying the half point (the hook) was +EV for us bettors do you really think the books would offer that option? It's a long term losing proposition.
I'm not going to get into an elaborate math example here but briefly unless your shop is giving you a discounted price on buying a half point off of a three point line one must pay a premium price of .25 cents.
So instead of (unless you have a reduced juice shop) moving a 3 point line from -110 to -2.5 means you are now laying -135 juice.
Since 2003 there have been 664 NFL games where the home team was a three point favorite.
In those 664 NFL games the home team at -3 has a record of 287-316-61 ATS
(I did the work using Sports Insight's Bet Labs Software.)
Almost all of you know you must win 52.4 percent of your games or better to turn a profit at -110 juice.
Like I mentioned the ATS record since 2003 of games where the favorite was exactly three points has a record of 287-316-61 (ATS) which is a win percentage of 47.6 percent far below the 52.4 percent you need to turn a profit.
Now here's the important part.
There were 61 pushes at -3 in those 664 games.
If you bought the hook in each and every game that was -3 and made it -2.5 your record will be now be 348 and 316 which is a win percentage of 52.4 percent.
Now before you break into a victory dance you paid -135 juice for all those 664 games. not -110.
At -135 one must win 57.45 percent of the time not 52.4 percent of the time at -110.
You guys are smart a 52.4 percent win rate where you need to win at a 57.45 percent win rate makes you (say it with your pal Nasher) a long term loser.
Oh, not for nothing not only can't I find a side to bet the 41.5 total makes me nervous too.
Do I dare say it, I'm going to sit this one out and just watch it.
You guys have any angles tonight?
I don't trust the Browns in many spots.
I was one of the few posters here back in August who saw this Browns underachieving act coming.
Just because you add a collection of talented 'me first' head case players doesn't make you instant champions.
I can only think of George Steinbrenner's early ownership days that pulled that off.
Like I said, I don't trust the Browns especially at home.
Look at their home games so far.
Blown out of the water versus at best a mediocre Titan team.
A loss to a suddenly mediocre Rams team, and a four point loss to Seattle.
If you're going to contend for a championship you have to beat Seattle at home. That's the way I see it.
Browns only win at home was last week against a new and improved Bills squad by three, hardly a quality win.
A decent win? Yes. A quality win? no.
And I don't trust the Steelers on the road either.
At first glance that 5-4 record may seem pretty good without the services of Bell, Brown, and Ben.
This is the Steelers fourth road game, they have one win against a Charger team where half of Rivers offensive linemen were out on IR and had second teamers blocking for him.
The other two games were a blowout by 30 to the Champs, no crime in losing to New England but could you please put up a better showing? And a tough beat on the road to SF however a loss is a loss tough beat or rout.
(Most JV squads can win at home against the Bengals and the Dolphins but Pitt isn't home)
I don't trust Cleveland at home and I don't trust Pitt on the road.
I might play the Steelers if I could get +3.5 but the line isn't budging off of 3 flat.
Now before you say "Nasher, buy the half point" I'll tell you a thousand times a resounding NO!
Riddle me this fellas? If buying the half point (the hook) was +EV for us bettors do you really think the books would offer that option? It's a long term losing proposition.
I'm not going to get into an elaborate math example here but briefly unless your shop is giving you a discounted price on buying a half point off of a three point line one must pay a premium price of .25 cents.
So instead of (unless you have a reduced juice shop) moving a 3 point line from -110 to -2.5 means you are now laying -135 juice.
Since 2003 there have been 664 NFL games where the home team was a three point favorite.
In those 664 NFL games the home team at -3 has a record of 287-316-61 ATS
(I did the work using Sports Insight's Bet Labs Software.)
Almost all of you know you must win 52.4 percent of your games or better to turn a profit at -110 juice.
Like I mentioned the ATS record since 2003 of games where the favorite was exactly three points has a record of 287-316-61 (ATS) which is a win percentage of 47.6 percent far below the 52.4 percent you need to turn a profit.
Now here's the important part.
There were 61 pushes at -3 in those 664 games.
If you bought the hook in each and every game that was -3 and made it -2.5 your record will be now be 348 and 316 which is a win percentage of 52.4 percent.
Now before you break into a victory dance you paid -135 juice for all those 664 games. not -110.
At -135 one must win 57.45 percent of the time not 52.4 percent of the time at -110.
You guys are smart a 52.4 percent win rate where you need to win at a 57.45 percent win rate makes you (say it with your pal Nasher) a long term loser.
Oh, not for nothing not only can't I find a side to bet the 41.5 total makes me nervous too.
Do I dare say it, I'm going to sit this one out and just watch it.
