Thursday Plays?? I Would Think Sharps On Denver

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  • 5mike5
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 09-21-11
    • 52034

    #36
    Originally posted by Big Bear
    there is no such thing as a sharp


    it’s all random

    just got to flip a coin and hope for a lucky break

    the sooner you realize this the sooner you will find inner peace

    He who has conquered fear and doubt has conquered failure
    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #37
      Only question for me is ok to be greedy and play the run line or just take the ml? Not a huge fan of laying the 1.5 at home but this bandbox one of the places I will consider it more often, the total steaming up lends itself to laying it as well. Don’t think yanks leaving this up to a 1run game late!!
      Comment
      • jjgold
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-20-05
        • 388179

        #38
        Thanks you men

        Banker always with great analysis
        Comment
        • pickle_texas
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 10-26-16
          • 750

          #39
          Originally posted by 2daBank
          Only question for me is ok to be greedy and play the run line or just take the ml? Not a huge fan of laying the 1.5 at home but this bandbox one of the places I will consider it more often, the total steaming up lends itself to laying it as well. Don’t think yanks leaving this up to a 1run game late!!
          If greinke can allow 2-3 runs max, astros might have a chance to win this game.
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #40
            Originally posted by pickle_texas
            If greinke can allow 2-3 runs max, astros might have a chance to win this game.
            Id be foolish to say they can’t win, they are the best team in baseball after all. Just like bombers chances here. I don’t think they gonna fall down 3-1 with jv and Cole looking them in the face. I’ll take Tanaka-son over Greinke all day, then bombers obviously have the pen advantage, although Stros pen been good.,
            Comment
            • albinoshark
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-16-13
              • 124

              #41
              KC does have a beatable Defense! And then there is Mr cool Joe... Flacco has passed for 6 TD's and 5 interceptions & his rating is 87.4. Broncos now avg 336 yards/game. Also Sanders is out this week and that could be problematic on a short week.
              Comment
              • 2daBank
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-26-09
                • 88966

                #42
                Originally posted by albinoshark
                KC does have a beatable Defense! And then there is Mr cool Joe... Flacco has passed for 6 TD's and 5 interceptions & his rating is 87.4. Broncos now avg 336 yards/game. Also Sanders is out this week and that could be problematic on a short week.
                Gonna be all about the donks run game if they gonna get the W.

                I really feel like “squares” take one here but a case can certainly be made for donks. You could argue donks very close to being 4-2 honestly. Got hosed in the bears game. Gave away the jags game. They have the run game to do what teams been doing to kc and dominate top. End of day tho I think kc gets back on track. I’ve heard mahomes ankle is getting better., they still banged up but having hill and Kelce prob enough here.
                Comment
                • pickle_texas
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-26-16
                  • 750

                  #43
                  Originally posted by 2daBank
                  Id be foolish to say they can’t win, they are the best team in baseball after all. Just like bombers chances here. I don’t think they gonna fall down 3-1 with jv and Cole looking them in the face. I’ll take Tanaka-son over Greinke all day, then bombers obviously have the pen advantage, although Stros pen been good.,
                  Yeah, man, stros pen right now is very rested and ready to roll. It's gonna come down to Greinke's performance because Tanaka is strong at home.
                  Comment
                  • 2daBank
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 88966

                    #44
                    Originally posted by pickle_texas
                    Yeah, man, stros pen right now is very rested and ready to roll. It's gonna come down to Greinke's performance because Tanaka is strong at home.
                    I just can’t see this being a easy series and if Stros win tonight it be exactly that. Bombers have a tough enough road as it is when Stros have 2 in hand and jv plus Cole looming. They lose tonight it over before it started. Just don’t see that happening.
                    Comment
                    • ThaTopMoron
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 04-30-10
                      • 27020

                      #45
                      just bet broncos kc under

                      has den played an over yet?
                      Comment
                      • alon7777777
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-11-10
                        • 1864

                        #46
                        over 49 is the play after struggling on offence last week both teams will score and I can feel a chiefs blowout
                        Comment
                        • pickle_texas
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 10-26-16
                          • 750

                          #47
                          Originally posted by 2daBank
                          I just can’t see this being a easy series and if Stros win tonight it be exactly that. Bombers have a tough enough road as it is when Stros have 2 in hand and jv plus Cole looming. They lose tonight it over before it started. Just don’t see that happening.
                          Well, anything can happen. Sometimes, it looks predicable about a certain team winning and then all of a sudden, we get surprised with the end result. Good luck today on your picks. I'm rolling with denver and arkansas state as well. And a sprinkle on over 49 points
                          Comment
                          • 2daBank
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-26-09
                            • 88966

                            #48
                            Originally posted by alon7777777
                            over 49 is the play after struggling on offence last week both teams will score and I can feel a chiefs blowout
                            There has to be a incredible case for me to play Thursday night over (think packers/eagles). I naturally lean under in this game and it takes a lot for me to go over,, I just don’t see it here, donks gonna try to play keep away., I’m not touching total tho so gl. Think you be better off playing kc if you feel that way. 27-17 type game imo.
                            Comment
                            • 2daBank
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-26-09
                              • 88966

                              #49
                              Originally posted by pickle_texas
                              Well, anything can happen. Sometimes, it looks predicable about a certain team winning and then all of a sudden, we get surprised with the end result. Good luck today on your picks. I'm rolling with denver and arkansas state as well. And a sprinkle on over 49 points
                              Never says it couldn’t. Just that I don’t see it, lol. I got bombers and kc so one of us gonna be bumming. Lol
                              Comment
                              • pickle_texas
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 10-26-16
                                • 750

                                #50
                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                Never says it couldn’t. Just that I don’t see it, lol. I got bombers and kc so one of us gonna be bumming. Lol
                                One of us is eating $1 burgers after tonight.
                                Comment
                                • JIBBBY
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-10-09
                                  • 83686

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by dawg58kahn
                                  I know I like the chiefs now....Trolling you as always lmao
                                  Fixed.. Get a life son.. Good luck Malibu Most Wanted with the fade..

                                  Comment
                                  • QuantumLeap
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-22-08
                                    • 6880

                                    #52
                                    This game is a perfect example of why 95% of bettors lose. Books don't reverse a line on big games like this with a huge amount of public on the other side.

                                    Public slaughter tonight both on KC and on Stanford.
                                    Comment
                                    • jjgold
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 07-20-05
                                      • 388179

                                      #53
                                      Look at nhl also
                                      Could be a sleeper


                                      Working on something now
                                      Comment
                                      • Unrivaled
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 10-24-11
                                        • 6685

                                        #54
                                        Just because it's the "Sharp Play" doesn't mean it's the right play. Just saying.
                                        Comment
                                        • Sam Odom
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-30-05
                                          • 58063

                                          #55
                                          Sharps do lose
                                          Comment
                                          • Buckandadime
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 04-21-15
                                            • 8847

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by jjgold
                                            Look at nhl also
                                            Could be a sleeper


                                            Working on something now
                                            NYR/NJ Under 6.5
                                            NYI +115
                                            Buff +105
                                            Comment
                                            • shocka1212
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 10-06-12
                                              • 16788

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by QuantumLeap
                                              This game is a perfect example of why 95% of bettors lose. Books don't reverse a line on big games like this with a huge amount of public on the other side.

                                              Public slaughter tonight both on KC and on Stanford.
                                              Me likey the under in that Stanford game
                                              Comment
                                              • shocka1212
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 10-06-12
                                                • 16788

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by jjgold
                                                Look at nhl also
                                                Could be a sleeper


                                                Working on something now
                                                gimme a winner baldy
                                                Comment
                                                • ThaTopMoron
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 04-30-10
                                                  • 27020

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by ThaTopMoron
                                                  just bet broncos kc under

                                                  has den played an over yet?
                                                  so has Denver played an over yet?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JayDr3am
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-06-14
                                                    • 18260

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by pickle_texas
                                                    If greinke can allow 2-3 runs max, astros might have a chance to win this game.
                                                    big brain
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JIBBBY
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-10-09
                                                      • 83686

                                                      #61
                                                      Sharps lost tonight.. Yankees are done.. Broncos got smoked..

                                                      Damn I need to invest in a new crystal ball..

                                                      Anyone got one for sale I'll pay big for one my shiit broke?

                                                      Comment
                                                      • shocka1212
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 10-06-12
                                                        • 16788

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by shocka1212
                                                        Yankees ML

                                                        Arkansas St +6.5
                                                        Ouch
                                                        Comment
                                                        • dj_destroyer
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-28-10
                                                          • 3856

                                                          #63
                                                          Originally posted by Unrivaled
                                                          Just because it's the "Sharp Play" doesn't mean it's the right play. Just saying.
                                                          This is actually so wrong, it's palpable. If it's the sharp play then 100% it's the right play. On the contrary, just because you won a wager doesn't mean it was the right play. The sooner you realize this, the sooner you'll start winning longterm. No one has a crystal ball and can correctly predict the future but if you treat sports betting as what it is, a market, you learn that you just need to find value, not winners.

                                                          For example, if someone is giving you -110/-110 odds on a coin flip and you guess right ten flips in a row, you still didn't make a sharp wager. If someone offered +110/+110 odds and you got ten wrong in a row, you're still sharp for betting. Being right or wrong is inconsequential if your edge is true.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 2daBank
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 88966

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                            Sharps lost tonight.. Yankees are done.. Broncos got smoked..

                                                            Damn I need to invest in a new crystal ball..

                                                            Anyone got one for sale I'll pay big for one my shiit broke?

                                                            Bombers fukked me w no lube, kicking myself for not at least getting some back w over.

                                                            pretty confident kc was the right side. Even without mahomes they whipped them.

                                                            My theory on lines like the kc/donks is long as I understand why it seemingly short like that I can go against it if I disagree. It those sketchy lines I don’t understand that scare me away cause obviously I’m missing something.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Unrivaled
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 10-24-11
                                                              • 6685

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by dj_destroyer
                                                              This is actually so wrong, it's palpable. If it's the sharp play then 100% it's the right play. On the contrary, just because you won a wager doesn't mean it was the right play. The sooner you realize this, the sooner you'll start winning longterm. No one has a crystal ball and can correctly predict the future but if you treat sports betting as what it is, a market, you learn that you just need to find value, not winners.

                                                              For example, if someone is giving you -110/-110 odds on a coin flip and you guess right ten flips in a row, you still didn't make a sharp wager. If someone offered +110/+110 odds and you got ten wrong in a row, you're still sharp for betting. Being right or wrong is inconsequential if your edge is true.
                                                              All I care about is winning. I'll take the "sharp" side if I agree with the pick and I'll take the public side if I strongly agree with the pick.

                                                              If the sharps are going to bet on Flacco and that dreadful oline in prime time, against an angry Chiefs team then I hope they're patting themselves on the back for being on the "right play".
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Sam Odom
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-30-05
                                                                • 58063

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by Sam Odom


                                                                Sharps do lose


                                                                Comment
                                                                • STANDARD BET
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 05-10-19
                                                                  • 224

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Anyone who bet the Broncos is the opposite of a sharp.
                                                                  Comment
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