Let’s talk ncaa week 7

[2daBank]

Agree, Wisconsin's QB Coan is nothing without a running game. I think the the value is with Michigan State. Every team that gets shit kicked by Ohio State seems to become undervalued. Not a great spot or MSU though obiously off the big game.

Historically they been pretty good off a big loss but I dunno how often that Is them facing one the bottom feeders or another good team?

[thomorino]

I guess everyone almost everyone agrees this is the week that Penn St falls out of the race for the playoff. I don't agree and took PSU -3.5.

Yeah so much love for Iowa, I think we see 2.5 by game time.

[thomorino]

Historically they been pretty good off a big loss but I dunno how often that Is them facing one the bottom feeders or another good team?

I will never lay big points with Michigan State against good teams, offense is so conservative and stale, the problem with the dantonio era. But that also makes them a good dog, they don't turn the ball over much and are very conservative in close games. I think Wisconsin wins by 4-7, at 10 this line seems inflated. Wisconsin has one impressive win, and Michigan State is a better team than Michigan, their defensive line can contain taylor.

[teecee]

Yeah so much love for Iowa, I think we see 2.5 by game time.

Yeah, I'm sure I could have gotten a better number, but when you have to take 2.5 hrs out of your day to make a wager (driving to Indiana), you put your play in when you have the time.

[2daBank]

I guess everyone almost everyone agrees this is the week that Penn St falls out of the race for the playoff. I don't agree and took PSU -3.5.

I dunno if them losing necessarily means they out? Seems like mixed opinions but I like Iowa w the points. I’ll love psu next week to curb stomp Michigan tho!! Just think Iowa gonna get little revenge here off 2 very tough losses to psu the last 2 years. If anything dunno how ya could feel good laying over a fg? Feel like this for sure be close. Certainly not saying I couldn’t be wrong but think you be better served waiting and shopping cause I saw some -3s out there today.

[veriableodds]

Just the fact that Miami is a favorite tonight, which makes zero sense, means they prolly the play.

what does not makes sense?? va/39 @ Miami/44 giving the lower ranked team 3 for home court Miami wins by 2 points

have not looked at spread but makes sense to me

[2daBank]

what does not makes sense?? va/39 @ Miami/44 giving the lower ranked team 3 for home court Miami wins by 2 points

have not looked at spread but makes sense to me

Perception bro. They coulda easily made uva small road favs and still got plenty of action on uva imo.

[thomorino]

what does not makes sense?? va/39 @ Miami/44 giving the lower ranked team 3 for home court Miami wins by 2 points

have not looked at spread but makes sense to me

Diaz such overrated garage, every year a great recruiting class to waste.

[2daBank]

I will never lay big points with Michigan State against good teams, offense is so conservative and stale, the problem with the dantonio era. But that also makes them a good dog, they don't turn the ball over much and are very conservative in close games. I think Wisconsin wins by 4-7, at 10 this line seems inflated. Wisconsin has one impressive win, and Michigan State is a better team than Michigan, their defensive line can contain taylor.

Pretty much agree with all that. Supposed to be super windy too. I heard 30-40 mph forecasted!!

What you think of red river? Gotta like the horns w the points right? Game always close!!

[teecee]

I dunno if them losing necessarily means they out? Seems like mixed opinions but I like Iowa w the points. I’ll love psu next week to curb stomp Michigan tho!! Just think Iowa gonna get little revenge here off 2 very tough losses to psu the last 2 years. If anything dunno how ya could feel good laying over a fg? Feel like this for sure be close. Certainly not saying I couldn’t be wrong but think you be better served waiting and shopping cause I saw some -3s out there today.

I don't have much of a choice, man. Ohio won't let us wager (rolls eyes) and I've got stuff to do. I had yesterday to make the drive, so I got 3.5. Hollywood, Rivers and DraftKings (my 3 options, unless I want to keep playing offshore) all had 3.5.

[thomorino]

Pretty much agree with all that. Supposed to be super windy too. I heard 30-40 mph forecasted!!

What you think of red river? Gotta like the horns w the points right? Game always close!!

I've gone back and forth on that game, tough game, but Texas secondary is trash, it is every year. The key is how good is Oklahoma' defense. The consenus is take the points its a rivary game an will be lose but I think Oklahoma likely covers, the new defensive coordinator has done a great job. I'd lean Oklahoma but I'm not on the game. Line keeps dropping, if it goes to 9.5 I'll be on Oklahoma.

[veriableodds]

have not looked at the stats or matchups i admit, if the line does not have 5 points variance then model i dont even pay attention.
here is the matchup then.

Friday, 10/11/2019 at 8:00 PM				VIRGINIA (4-1) at MIAMI (2-3)
Expanded Matchup | FoxSheet				Results				Offensive Statistics				Defensive Statistics
Teams	Line	PF	PA	SU	ATS	O/U/P	TO	RY	RYPA	PY	PYPA	RY	RYPA	PY	PYPA
109: VIRGINIA	43.0	32.2	21.4	4-1	2-2-1	3-2-0	-6	107.6	3.4	256.0	7.2	91.4	2.6	184.0	6.5
110: MIAMI	-2.5	32.0	21.2	2-3	2-3-0	3-2-0	+1	135.0	4.0	315.0	8.7	78.8	2.5	204.6	7.0

10/11	Virginia at Miami FL	Virginia	+105	+115	+105	52.6%	24.00	46.90
Miami FL	-125	-125	-125	47.4%	22.90

[teecee]

what does not makes sense?? va/39 @ Miami/44 giving the lower ranked team 3 for home court Miami wins by 2 points

have not looked at spread but makes sense to me

Where do you get those ratings?

[2daBank]

I’m not gonna make a thread for the nlcs but if anyone curious I think the way to play it is to chase cards to get a win at home. Reason being pretty simple, I wouldn’t argue with anyone chasing nats for a road win either (especially now that line is climbing).

I got cards -115 tonight so they were cheap enough to go this route since I’m assuming Nats will prob be -140ish 2marro so chasing cards just made a little more sense (chasing w plus money way smarter imo!)., fully expect they leave stl tied 1-1 but more confident cards for sure win at least 1., not scared of going against max if we lose tonight. I’d be more scared having to chase w nats laying -140 or -150 (assuming that where gm2 will be) against waino at home where he been great and now that temps cool so park playing big. I don’t think nats can mask their pen in a 7 game series the way they did in the 5 gm nlds.

I’d love to play the over tonight but the weather is holding me back, rainy and gonna be really chilly tonight so the park gonna play big. They gonna have to absolutely crush a ball to get it out of park the next 2 days!!!

[thomorino]

I’m not gonna make a thread for the nlcs but if anyone curious I think the way to play it is to chase cards to get a win at home. Reason being pretty simple, I wouldn’t argue with anyone chasing nats for a road win either (especially now that line is climbing).

I got cards -115 tonight so they were cheap enough to go this route since I’m assuming Nats will prob be -140ish 2marro so chasing cards just made a little more sense (chasing w plus money way smarter imo!)., fully expect they leave stl tied 1-1 but more confident cards for sure win at least 1., not scared of going against max if we lose tonight. I’d be more scared having to chase w nats laying -140 or -150 (assuming that where gm2 will be) against waino at home where he been great and now that temps cool so park playing big. I don’t think nats can mask their pen in a 7 game series the way they did in the 5 gm nlds.

I’d love to play the over tonight but the weather is holding me back, rainy and gonna be really chilly tonight so the park gonna play big. They gonna have to absolutely crush a ball to get it out of park the next 2 days!!!

Cards are tough team for sure, but it just seems like Nats year, I don't trust Mikolas on the road, Wainright has been much better at home too.

[2daBank]

I've gone back and forth on that game, tough game, but Texas secondary is trash, it is every year. The key is how good is Oklahoma' defense. The consenus is take the points its a rivary game an will be lose but I think Oklahoma likely covers, the new defensive coordinator has done a great job. I'd lean Oklahoma but I'm not on the game. Line keeps dropping, if it goes to 9.5 I'll be on Oklahoma.

I think the sooner d is a bit of a mirage at this point, they haven’t been tested at all like they will be here. Horns secondary is basically kids off the street at this point so you not wrong there. Thing is Sooners always look like the better team coming in but it always close!! There no fukkin way I could lay even 7 in this game. Matchups be damned, Getting 10.5 in this game is a gift imo. Horns coach has always been great as a dog going back to his Houston days!!

[thomorino]

I think the sooner d is a bit of a mirage at this point, they haven’t been tested at all like they will be here. Horns secondary is basically kids off the street at this point so you not wrong there. Thing is Sooners always look like the better team coming in but it always close!! There no fukkin way I could lay even 7 in this game. Matchups be damned, Getting 10.5 in this game is a gift imo. Horns coach has always been great as a dog going back to his Houston days!!

You are right they haven't really been tested, but they did look great against Houston, a team that only scored in garage time. Strength of schedule arguments only go so far though, Oklahomas defense looks for real to me.

[teecee]

It absolutely does matter who teams have played, imo. If you score 70 on Dayton, that's not the same as scoring 70 on North Carolina. I always take competition played into account.

[2daBank]

Cards are tough team for sure, but it just seems like Nats year, I don't trust Mikolas on the road, Wainright has been much better at home too.

Mikolas ain’t on road bro, they in stl! I don’t trust mikolas either. But against sanchez think this game probably decided by pens which advantage cards., I like them both, I have futures I played at all star break on both (cards 32-1, nats 42-1!).,

I actually think nats would have a better chance vs either AL team than cards would but think cards a bad matchup for them, styles make fights as they say!!! Other than flaherty I think yanks or Stros would tee off on cards starting pitching!

Like I said I don’t think anything be wrong with chasing nats to get a road win either. Reason I went cards is because I think nats be sizable favs 2marro so I rather be chasing w the dog if need be in game 2. I also played cards early tonight at -115, now that it up to -130ish I could def see goin nats instead: it just be pricier to chase them 2marro if need be., that only reason I choose cards (more so than being a homer. Lol).

Sucks the weather so bad or this game would be a dead over for me!!!

[Buckandadime]

I think the sooner d is a bit of a mirage at this point, they haven’t been tested at all like they will be here. Horns secondary is basically kids off the street at this point so you not wrong there. Thing is Sooners always look like the better team coming in but it always close!! There no fukkin way I could lay even 7 in this game. Matchups be damned, Getting 10.5 in this game is a gift imo. Horns coach has always been great as a dog going back to his Houston days!!

I like the Under ALOT..
Think it's 10 pts too high @ 75..
Just my thought..

[thomorino]

Mikolas ain’t on road bro, they in stl! I don’t trust mikolas either. But against sanchez think this game probably decided by pens which advantage cards., I like them both, I have futures I played at all star break on both (cards 32-1, nats 42-1!).,

I actually think nats would have a better chance vs either AL team than cards would but think cards a bad matchup for them, styles make fights as they say!!! Other than flaherty I think yanks or Stros would tee off on cards starting pitching!

Like I said I don’t think anything be wrong with chasing nats to get a road win either. Reason I went cards is because I think nats be sizable favs 2marro so I rather be chasing w the dog if need be in game 2. I also played cards early tonight at -115, now that it up to -130ish I could def see goin nats instead: it just be pricier to chase them 2marro if need be., that only reason I choose cards (more so than being a homer. Lol).

Sucks the weather so bad or this game would be a dead over for me!!!

I'd lean over,Sanchez is hard to predict can get hammered or be great,relies on ground balls. Mikolas looks like he's wearing down, don't care.

[2daBank]

You are right they haven't really been tested, but they did look great against Houston, a team that only scored in garage time. Strength of schedule arguments only go so far though, Oklahomas defense looks for real to me.

I try not to use the strength of schedule argument much. For most part I can’t stand when guys say a team isn’t good cause they haven’t played anyone, that is never true. Who a team has played doesn’t mean they not good. Just means we don’t know yet.

That said, Far as Sooners d goes, I’m just not sold yet. Don’t think they gonna be able to slow what’s his face down. Qb runs I think will be big for horns.

[thomorino]

Mikolas ain’t on road bro, they in stl! I don’t trust mikolas either. But against sanchez think this game probably decided by pens which advantage cards., I like them both, I have futures I played at all star break on both (cards 32-1, nats 42-1!).,

I actually think nats would have a better chance vs either AL team than cards would but think cards a bad matchup for them, styles make fights as they say!!! Other than flaherty I think yanks or Stros would tee off on cards starting pitching!

Like I said I don’t think anything be wrong with chasing nats to get a road win either. Reason I went cards is because I think nats be sizable favs 2marro so I rather be chasing w the dog if need be in game 2. I also played cards early tonight at -115, now that it up to -130ish I could def see goin nats instead: it just be pricier to chase them 2marro if need be., that only reason I choose cards (more so than being a homer. Lol).

Sucks the weather so bad or this game would be a dead over for me!!!

I think its Nats year, but I'd hedge if they play Houston, the one team left that would have a better rotation than them.

[thomorino]

I try not to use the strength of schedule argument much. For most part I can’t stand when guys say a team isn’t good cause they haven’t played anyone, that is never true. Who a team has played doesn’t mean they not good. Just means we don’t know yet.

That said, Far as Sooners d goes, I’m just not sold yet. Don’t think they gonna be able to slow what’s his face down. Qb runs I think will be big for horns.

Agree,I'm not sold on sooner d either, I think they are for real though. Top recruits every year and they have the coordinator now.

[2daBank]

I'd lean over,Sanchez is hard to predict can get hammered or be great,relies on ground balls. Mikolas looks like he's wearing down, don't care.

It just the weather. Busch plays huge when it chilly and it gonna be in 40s. Ball won’t carry at all. Did you watch gm 3 of nlds? Atl hit about 5 balls that woulda been home runs most places that died at or in front of track vs waino. They gonna have to string hits together to score. I lean over too but park factor a big concern.

[BIGDAY]

IowaSt

[2daBank]

I think its Nats year, but I'd hedge if they play Houston, the one team left that would have a better rotation than them.

I’m most likely gonna put all potential winnings on the AL team, lol. Problem w nats is they won’t be able to mask pen in 7 game series like they did the nlds.., just wish I knew who the fukk was gonna win the yanks/Stros series so I could take now at plus money but I honestly have no clue who gonna win that series!!! Lol

[2daBank]

IowaSt

If I lay DD this week that is who I’d lay it with!

[2daBank]

It absolutely does matter who teams have played, imo. If you score 70 on Dayton, that's not the same as scoring 70 on North Carolina. I always take competition played into account.

I’ve cashed fat 2 weeks in a row w soft lines on Baylor cause ppl said they hadn’t played anyone. Just because you played a weak schedule doesn’t mean you not good. It means there more unknown but can’t stand when guys act like a team isn’t good because they haven’t played tough teams yet. We don’t know.

[2daBank]

I like the Under ALOT..
Think it's 10 pts too high @ 75..
Just my thought..

I kinda agree but would you really be shocked if it was 41-38? I feel better w the 10.5 w horns.

[SBR Drew]

I like Miami, Colorado and Colorado St tonight. Miami is best of three .

[2daBank]

I like Miami, Colorado and Colorado St tonight. Miami is best of three .

You contrarian! I feel like if Buffs cover my over should be golden. I think ducks hang 40+ pretty easily tonight!!!

I hate Miami but I’m staying far away., gl Drew.

[teecee]

If I lay DD this week that is who I’d lay it with!

What about Florida Atlantic? MTSU is awful.

[2daBank]

What about Florida Atlantic? MTSU is awful.

No idea., tell me about them!! Only time I saw Mtsu was against Michigan and they looked decent but coulda been Michigan was just awful!! Lol. Don’t know anything bout fla Atlantic! Lol

[Buckandadime]

I kinda agree but would you really be shocked if it was 41-38? I feel better w the 10.5 w horns.

Not shocked at all..
Just think OU scores at will in the beginning and UT struggles..
Looking at 37-27..
I think 10 is the margin..
Hard to take or lay the points for.me..