Can you really make $40K a month bonus scalping?

[kiwi]

I tried registering on that site it keeps giving me an error message..

Is Arbing profitable in NBA or College Basketball?

Yes, of course it is also profitable in NBA and other US sports (especially if you combine slow moving european books with books like Pinnacle or TheGreek).

To register at this site shouldn't be a problem...

[tribet]

No one is making 40k a month doing this if they were they surely wouldn't be telling everyone the secret..

A guy I know on here had that ARB alert software and ihe told me all about it, it was a lot of waiting on the computer to be alerted of an 0.87% ARB and you had to have a ton of books a lot of them rated D or less on here..

Profitable arbers do not rely soley on software to find arbs,that is where most people come unstuck as they only get low % arbs.

[jjgold]

The lines are too tight now to scalp and most books copy numbers and most of the ones that do not are not financially stable.

[tribet]

Rubbish.

[VegasDave]

Seems like a pretty foolproof system to me, if the books are trustworthy and you have the money...

Just playing smart and not expecting to get rich quick, there is really no reason why this shouldn't work.

[bigloser]

If someone is actually making money scalping/arbing why don't they post some stuff immediately after making their wagers and we can check line histories to confirm their stories?

How about some advice and tutorials as well.. Thought we were here to help each other?

A lot of storytellers around..

There is a big difference between advising on the quality of a book and advising on scalping.
I pay little attention to those who suggest scalping is unprofitable, as his is what they would say even if it was profitable. The value of scalping goes down the more people that participate .
Those that criticise it most could well be the most successful scalpers.
There was a poster called Halifax who would post upwards of 50 or so scalps a day. He no longer does this but I have no doubt he successfully scalps many books.

[EBone]

I did it awhile back. I got someone to give me $20K. Had I stuck with it the whole year, I think I would have made $20K on top of the original bankroll of $20K (about $1700 a month as a part time gig). I ended up stopping 8 months into it and made right at $14K.

But I stuck with only SBR B+ rated books and above which made it real, real tough. But I was very, very concerned about online security so I stuck to books I know I could paid from.

My experience tells me that:

1) You need a ton more than a $20K bankroll to make it in the scalping world. On a part-time basis, you should be able to make 100% of your bankroll annually.

2) The work is ungodly. I did it on a part-time basis but it became a full-time obsession.

3) Having read what kiwi and tribet and Sam Odom said in this thread, I say "ditto". The arb finding software only finds the ones that everyone and their Mom knows about. The real secret (which is an art, I might add) is finding the arbs in the obscure sports which no arb software will find. The problem with finding the obscure arbs, which are very profitable, are the book limits. The limits can make all your hard work of finding the obscure arbs "not worth it".

Probably the best arber I know of (I do not know him personally) is Jenx. From some things I have read, Jenx has been doing this for a very long time. He knows the ins and outs quite well. He's a legend in my opinion. He actually has an account on the SBR Forum. I think he and Mudcat are big buddies if recollection of past SBRForum posts serve me correctly.


That's all I know about scalping. I do not think I have posted anything here that would violate the arber creed. If I have, please feel free to ridicule me.


E

[noyb]

in my opinion this whole topic kind of violates the arber creed

[bigloser]

If someone is actually making money scalping/arbing why don't they post some stuff immediately after making their wagers and we can check line histories to confirm their stories?

How about some advice and tutorials as well.. Thought we were here to help each other?

A lot of storytellers around..

There is a big difference between advising on the quality of a book and advising on scalping.
I pay little attention to those who suggest scalping is unprofitable, as his is what they would say even if it was profitable. The value of scalping goes down the more people that participate .
Those that criticise it most could well be the most successful scalpers.
There was a poster called Halifax who would post upwards of 50 or so scalps a day. He no longer does this but I have no doubt he successfully scalps many books.

[Bill Dozer]

I would say a consistent day trading profit of $40k/month is no longer possible for someone playing in the US-only books. I'm sure those that utilize the Asian market and a good Betfair user could do it easily. The 2005 version of Mansion would have contributed to that.

Like many of the guys already said, if you are that skilled at trading you know where the value is and get more for your time actually making the play. Lots of grinders start off using Pinnacle against their soft local or other books and get sick of seeing Pinnacle eat up a 60% winners profit that they would have had if they didn't bet off all the juicy numbers. If it happens long enough they eventually start playing the "Pinnacle lean" straight up. You don't want to get kicked out of the books with juicey lines only scoring 20 middles or scalps.

[Mudcat]

There is absolutely no money to be made from scalping and arbing. Don't waste your time even thinking about it.

[Sam Odom]

There is absolutely no money to be made from scalping and arbing. Don't waste your time even thinking about it.

"Please dont throw me into the briar patch!"

[RickySteve]

This is not the case. No expectation is given away.

eg
2 leg scalp
Outcome A 2.05
Outcome B 1.98
Correct odds for both outcomes is 2.0

Straight bettor bets $100 (10% of bank) on outcome A
over 100 bets profit is $250

Scalper bets (100% of bank)
Outcome A $491.32
Outcome B $508.68

Return 1007.20 on either outcome

$720.00 profit over 100 bets


The straight bettor would not (or should not, maybe Ricky would ?) make the scalpers bet so it is not possible to lose equity

The quote above shows no understanding of variance or money management.

As a side benefit the scalper will turn over any bonus requirements far more quickly.

In that scenario, someone with a $1K bankroll who likes money should bet $620 @ 2.05 and $380 @ 1.98, rounded to the nearest $5 and assuming these are within the maximum wager limits.

[RickySteve]

My previous post was actually for someone with a $50K bankroll and the constraint that A + B <= $1000.

For someone with just a $1000 bankroll in that situation, he/she would be correct to wager $500 on each side.

[PeterWellington]

There is definitely money to be made scalping, but it's not for everyone. You need a nice bankroll and you need to be at your computer at key times during the day/night. You also need a good scalping service. I ended up writing my own program so I have the ability to customize it and probably find certain opportunities that many others aren't catching right away. I will say that the books/customers are getting quicker though.

The reason you don't see a lot of people posting specific bets is, by nature, when you tell too many people about these types of things then the opportunities disappear. It's kind of like a gold rush. But I wouldn't mind sharing certain ones if people are interested in them.

As to the original topic, $40K/month is really farfetched unless you're talking about the first month and you've got a gigantic bankroll (so much money that I'd wonder why you're not just living off the interest) and you're opening new accounts all over the place.

[CA_Bettor06]

I agree with you Peter. If you are able to code, it certainly helps. I tried the arb software services but that's VERY tedious and time consuming and it doesn't do what I want. For example it didn't support all the books I wanted and it showed only pure arbs. A scalper is more interested in a low cost bet than a positive bet which are rare and occur with books you shouldn't be in. The arb software makes you a slave of your computer and you have to stay glued to it for hours.

Do you scrape HTML or do you use the XML feeds?

I developed my own software also (those years at Microsoft paid off). It's the only way to make decent money sportsbetting without spending much time on it. Instead of using XML feeds direct from the books, I used a direct HTML retrieval and scrape. Not all books provide reliable XML feeds. Plus some books you have to log in to get the "real" lines. The published lines may be different since some books don't update their published lines as quickly and some books have different lines for different bettors, so you have to login first to get the correct lines. So I just select the books I want to compare lines with, save their HTML source to a local folder and click a button to process all the lines. About half the books I work have HTML that's easy to parse and published lines that agree to the logged in version so these I can parse directly from the URL without a manual save. I use PINN alot and there's good lines to compare when you click on the drop down boxes on the spreads and point totals. So I make sure my system parses those lines automatically too.

After my application parses the data it calculates each lines price against every selected book displays the results in descending cost order. Sometimes I pick up pure arbs in books that I have money in, but most of the time I quickly get the <1% cost best. I find that if you eliminate the manual reading of lines, scalping becomes very easy and it frees up your time to do other things. When you automate this way, the cheap bets are always there whenever you need them within seconds. So you trade on your own schedule.

The coding effort was not that difficult. It took about 2 months to build. You do have to stay up with the HTML structure changes from the books, but that's doesn't take much time at all.

I'm surprised more computer programmers don't get into this. Sorry I'm a bit of a geek. This posting probably makes no sense to the non-geeks.

[zippo]

I don't like this idea because you would have to have a lot of money spread out all over the place and at books that have bad ratings and will give you hassles about collecting. Plus it is way too time consuming for the small peanuts you're going to make anyway.

Call me old fashioned, but I like beating the books straight up and take more pride in that and feel a sense of accomplishment, if that makes any sense.

I also think that this method is for guys that can't pick their way out of a paper bag straight up, so they have to do this in order to make some kind of profit and make up for the amount of straight wagers lost.

More successful players really just pick there spots slowly and consistently by spot betting when something looks really good and then hammer the play. Thats what I do anyway. Instead of betting the board everyday, maybe just make a couple really big plays a week. Basically pick and choose your spots and hit them hard.

[PeterWellington]

I also scrape HTML but I have everything automated aside from the actual placing of the bets. You touched on what I've found to be the biggest problem -- stale lines. This is really what makes things more time consuming than they should be.

I agree with you about the cheap bets. I can have the best odds for any game in front of me within seconds. This also makes clearing bonuses very easy. Books count on that vig to eat away at your bonus while you meet the rollover requirements, but I can place bets so cheap that it's barely noticeable (most of the time I can actually arb my way to the rollover target).

And, yes, I love Pinnacle. I feel like I'm in Purgatory on the rare days I can't get enough funding there.

[slacker00]

It's a tough way to make easy money. $40k/mo, you'd need a ridiculous bankroll. Buy a nice house instead.

[Stumpage]

I don't like this idea because you would have to have a lot of money spread out all over the place and at books that have bad ratings and will give you hassles about collecting. Plus it is way too time consuming for the small peanuts you're going to make anyway.

With respect Zippo, this is not at all the case...Far from it, in fact. Money is spread out, you are correct about that. But this can be done without going into any risky books at all.

As for the "small peanuts", let me just state as I've done in the past: You'd be simply amazed.

[Yoshi]

Those scalping threads all end the same way ^^

[Ganchrow]

The published lines may be different since some books don't update their published lines as quickly and some books have different lines for different bettors, so you have to login first to get the correct lines. So I just select the books I want to compare lines with, save their HTML source to a local folder and click a button to process all the lines. About half the books I work have HTML that's easy to parse and published lines that agree to the logged in version so these I can parse directly from the URL without a manual save.

I'll just point out that it's actually quite unnecessary to manually log in and save the source code. It's a fairly simple automating a login process and maintaining the appropriate cookies for each site. This is exactly what I do myself. I'm not sure if you participated in BTP, but it's also the methodology I haf used to "autopost" with PrickBot.

Anyway, if you design your software correctly, you should never have to open a sportsbook in a browser ever again.

[cobra_king]

I'd love to hear more about those self written programs....unfortunately i'm not a computer geek and those posts were half german to me as they were!

[DrSlamm]

anyone posting brags about scalping is an idiot. any additional scalper that you convince to try it out is $$$ out of YOUR pocket

[pags11]

good point doc...

[imgv94]

Nevermind..

[aaronb]

Interesting point about not creating more competition for bonus scalping. But my view is there's plenty to go around if you scalp because scalpers are and will always be a very very small percentage of bettors. The *gamblers* will always be the majority. Gambling is both fun and addicting. The thrills and highs and lows. The lure of the big payoff. Scalping is for the conservatives who don't have gambling fever in their blood. Just my theory. You won't ever see a mass infusion of scalpers even if leveraging technology makes it easier. The average Joe off the street is sticking to his day job. They are not going to take the risks with sportsbetting. Even scalping can be risky. Bettors should be encouraged to share their methods on this forum without being called idiots for sharing. The more knowledge we have the *bettor* off we all are. We shouldn't feel threatened by that IMHO.

[Yoshi]

Scalping is for the conservatives who don't have gambling fever in their blood.

Scalping and gambling have nothing to do with each other, someone going for some scalping money might also place gambling bets.

[Fishhead]

Fisheahd..how do you make $63K/month? Do you have a really large amount invested?

$1700 should be very easy, I'm sure anyone can make $3K/month or more just by reloading sportsbooks. But $40K or $60K is "real" money. You would have to many people helping and lots of money invested to make that much I think.

63K a month is completely false by whoever posted such a ridiculous amount.

First off, when I was doing this(completely out of offshore currently), was making roughly $10,000 a month simply between scalping/bonus whoring, and playing various contests..........and there was no teamwork involved or using false aliases..........and also by not putting through much of an effort. With literally hundreds of books and Neteller, it was relatively easy work/play.

I guarantee you that a few made way more than this that really attacked it with a cutthroat mentality and through much harder work than I was willing to put in.