Riding baseball's hidden gem

[sosawestbrook]

Wade Miley has not given up more then 4 earned runs in any one start in nearly 2 full seasons which spans a total of 39 starts up to this point.

4ER games: 2
3ER games: 9
2ER or less games: 28

with the Astros lineup looking more dangerous then ever before, im gonna ride the Wade Miley train with first five bets for the remainder of the season and track how well it does here.

tonight the Astros are in Camden yards matching up against the Orioles. the money line is too high so im going with First five PK -160 for tonight.

[2daBank]

Why only ff? Not like Stros have a bad pen and they win games.

Imo if you playing fav FF always lay the half run. Rather get the better price than lay the extra juice for chance at a push.

[NBAtony]

FF -160? SIGN ME UP

its -280 on my site lol

[2daBank]

FF -160? SIGN ME UP

its -280 on my site lol

Obviously he laying the half run. Lol

[funnyb25]

FF -160? SIGN ME UP

its -280 on my site lol

Think it was a typo. -0.5 is -160..

[NBAtony]

Think it was a typo. -0.5 is -160..

he probably means -260 cause he clearly says PK

[Mike Huntertz]

I also like Hou., but took -1.5 -165

[funnyb25]

he probably means -260 cause he clearly says PK

Or this...Lol

[sosawestbrook]

Why only ff? Not like Stros have a bad pen and they win games.

Imo if you playing fav FF always lay the half run. Rather get the better price than lay the extra juice for chance at a push.

those prices get too crazy. when its a high price like this ill play PK. if its fair price ill play ML.

[2daBank]

those prices get too crazy. when its a high price like this ill play PK. if its fair price ill play ML.

You mean ff minus the half run? That how I play a lot of favs myself.

[2daBank]

he probably means -260 cause he clearly says PK

The pk thing he sayin is very confusing cause obviously he means that as something different than ml. Lol.

[sosawestbrook]

yeah first five PK (-0.5)

even though thats the incorrect term its easier for me to put it in my books that way. my bad.

play it how you want but this will strictly be first five bets on either PK or ML.

[2daBank]

yeah first five PK (-0.5)

even though thats the incorrect term its easier for me to put it in my books that way. my bad.

play it how you want but this will strictly be first five bets on either PK or ML.

Make it more easier for us and just say ff -.5

[funnyb25]

You mean ff minus the half run? That how I play a lot of favs myself.

Same thing different lingo I guess since a tie loses, yes, -0.5 unless his book offers 3 way baseball.

[NBAtony]

Everyone slacking at their job on fridays apparently. hahaha

no worries m8 -- astros ff -.5 got it.

[asiagambler]

Can't imagine his numbers at Camden Yards are any good though. His HR/FB ratio has to be pretty high there... though the Orioles are still the Orioles.

[2daBank]

It not really a hidden gem when he pitches for best team in baseball and he has lines above -200 all the time. Lol

[2daBank]

those prices get too crazy. when its a high price like this ill play PK. if its fair price ill play ML.

I don’t ever lay that kind of juice. I mostly don’t venture above -150 for bases and that pretty rare for me. Don’t mind laying the half run on ff if I can get that at reasonable price w fav, especially at home or in what i think be a lower scoring game where I won’t lay the 1.5 for game.

I put Houston rl in some parlays today. Even the ff -.5 was little too pricey for me. Gl

[sosawestbrook]

Can't imagine his numbers at Camden Yards are any good though. His HR/FB ratio has to be pretty high there... though the Orioles are still the Orioles.

doesn't matter who or where they play. the collection of data is large enough to be trusted. thats what im going off.

I noticed this trend about 2 months ago & feel good about starting to play these regularly due to the revived Astros offense. because their offense is fully recouped health wise & because I feel like the kid Alvarez makes them one of the toughest lineups in the league, I will play these blindly for the rest of the season.

[sosawestbrook]

you fellas can do as you please with this info. im just sharing for whoever is interested. will be tracking every start.

[2daBank]

you fellas can do as you please with this info. im just sharing for whoever is interested. will be tracking every start.

Nothing wrong w it, I seriously doubt you will end up down riding him. Just don’t think it a very hidden gem considering how big a fav he will typically be. Years ago Jamie Garcia was a amazing ff bet, and was priced way sweeter cause he typically fell apart after the 5th so you could get favorable lines on him in the ff. Think we rode that for almost 2 years and paid off nice, I’m sure if you go search archives from 7-8 years ago or whatever it was you could find us discussing it! Lol.

I love hidden gems, especially ones you can bet blind and don’t have to cap. We were doing that with nfl Thursday night 1st half unders for several years as well, hasn’t been nearly as strong more recently tho, I still play them at times but more a case by case basis these days w capping involved. As with all good things like that the key is getting on early cause nothing last forever, books adjust!!

[jjgold]

Thanks for tip

[KVB]

On BALTY +1.5.

[2daBank]

On BALTY +1.5.

So what you saying is he might be doomed on the FF as you usually have a lead get blown on those, lol.

[Chi_archie]

late to party most likely IMO


regression coming

[ElJefe305]

late to party most likely IMO


regression coming

Agreed. Saw an article somewhere that Miley has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the MLB this season (think the list included Dakota Hudson, Julio Teheran, Mike Fiers, and one more I can't remember off the top of my head) and while idk if Baltimore has any sort of capability to put this streak to an end, reality should hit fairly soon.

[sosawestbrook]

late to party most likely IMO


regression coming

true, but like I said I noticed this a while ago. I've got a little bit of a head start. should've posted sooner but I still feel the data is strong enough to be profitable from here on out because the Astros offense is another level w/ Alvarez manning the middle of that order.

if you look at Miley's starts in the middle of the season, there was a good number of games where he pitched well but Astros couldn't cover the deficits(first five)

things are different now. there is a reason Astros are clear cut favorites to win WS & it isn't because they added Greinke.

[sosawestbrook]

Agreed. Saw an article somewhere that Miley has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the MLB this season (think the list included Dakota Hudson, Julio Teheran, Mike Fiers, and one more I can't remember off the top of my head) and while idk if Baltimore has any sort of capability to put this streak to an end, reality should hit fairly soon.

dont read articles. do your own research & count the cash.

[jolyolyolyman]

dont read articles. do your own research & count the cash.

I think this guy has been reading too much of the Action Network App, which isn’t a bad source, but should be taken with a grain of salt. Just because it gets published and looks pretty doesn’t mean anything. I find Fangraphs to be the best source of information in regards to pitchers. It’s just straight data and numbers. Wade Miley will continue to grind. He seems like a pitcher, sort of like Lance Lynn, who knows who he is at this point in his career. Definitely a guy I can root for. Good luck with the experiment! Hopefully it gets off to a good start tonight.

[RockBottom]

I thought the hidden gem was playing against Edwin Jackson -155.

Yes, THAT Edwin Jackson.

[94dc4]

im on the FF -.5 train as well at -170 :/ max bet. astros have put up a lot of points in the ff last couple weeks. with orioles pitching and miley current trend, ff seemed like best bet vs current lines.

[Otters27]

Going points with the Astros

[sosawestbrook]

I think this guy has been reading too much of the Action Network App, which isn’t a bad source, but should be taken with a grain of salt. Just because it gets published and looks pretty doesn’t mean anything. I find Fangraphs to be the best source of information in regards to pitchers. It’s just straight data and numbers. Wade Miley will continue to grind. He seems like a pitcher, sort of like Lance Lynn, who knows who he is at this point in his career. Definitely a guy I can root for. Good luck with the experiment! Hopefully it gets off to a good start tonight.

you are always supportive in my threads & I appreciate that. thanks for chiming in.

[sosawestbrook]

I thought the hidden gem was playing against Edwin Jackson -155.

Yes, THAT Edwin Jackson.

ooh shit. maybe. I just snuck in a cool lil title. didn't mean to be dramatic. good luck with Edwin.

[NBAtony]

Astros have some new undetectable pine tar - every pitcher that goes there becomes amazing.

Bauer is pissed about it