Just Really... MLB : How good is beating the closing line by 10c ?
Sammy's dear friend NoCoin used to say zero advantage... Maybe you'll lose more
Example : Get Team A -121... Closes at A -131
Any real $$$ advantage ?
vividjohn45
SBR Hall of Famer
11-21-10
6331
#2
In your example was jj on the dog and posting it in his spread sheet? + Expected value
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#3
Doesn’t mean anything
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#4
Originally posted by jjgold
Doesn’t mean anything
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funnyb25
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07-09-09
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#5
Ask LT
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#6
where is Mathy when you need him
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TommieGunshot
SBR MVP
03-27-12
1607
#7
Originally posted by jjgold
Doesn’t mean anything
At -131, a winning bet pays out 76%; at -121 is pays out 83%. At that number, favorite should win about 57% of the time, so more than 3% better. Or it means more than $30,000 for every $1,000,000 bet (a level most of us can reach every few years). Of course $30,000 over a few years means hardly anything to someone like you who wins so much.
Would need to know the takeback to get the most accurate edge. With 10-cent lines, that means it closes -131/121. Getting -121 is exactly the same as the book, which means your edge should be whatever their edge is (around 2.3% on baseball).
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KiDBaZkiT
SBR Posting Legend
10-20-09
14962
#8
Cap the games not the lines. Thank me later.
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
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#9
Originally posted by jjgold
Doesn’t mean anything
Duly noted. Watch + learn, boys. If JJ it doesn't mean anything...that means that it's EVERYTHING.
Give me that portfolio every day of the week. And twice on Sundays.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#10
IT MEANS NOTHING, random beating closers
WHY?????
Yeh you beat some closers 10 -30 cents but you also have tons of bets you get 20 cents or worse!!!
Squares born every minute here, long run you get destroyed gambling daily all sports unless your risk free arbing, hedging and bonus pros
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
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#11
Plz shut the fk up.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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CWD
SBR Hall of Famer
01-22-12
7665
#12
bonus pros is that what they call u when u wiggle william hill for $50 spot sign up bonus
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DrunkHorseplayer
SBR Hall of Famer
05-15-10
7719
#13
It's huge, especially when you're betting into a 10 cent line. If you do that on a consistent basis and the book is tracking you, you'll be booted.
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#14
Nobody does it on a consistent basis
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asiagambler
SBR Hall of Famer
07-23-17
6827
#15
It is good but you need to do it about 80% of the time to win long term
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
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#16
Originally posted by jjgold
Nobody does it on a consistent basis
You're a retard. Plz get lost.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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RudyRuetigger
SBR Aristocracy
08-24-10
65084
#17
sammy this could be your dumbest question ever
which speaks VOLUMES
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#18
People chasing the dream to be broke never forget that
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sweep
SBR Posting Legend
10-09-10
16753
#19
Impossible to beat a closer in NJ....Lines too wide. Can cherry pick dogs and props here & there that are better than the market but it takes A TON of time. MLB run lines only thing Ive seen that can be +ev so far in NJ. That said, I got a payout from BetStars in 6 minutes yesterday to their play+ card
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vampire assassin
SBR Sharp
03-09-18
296
#20
Originally posted by TommieGunshot
At -131, a winning bet pays out 76%; at -121 is pays out 83%. At that number, favorite should win about 57% of the time, so more than 3% better. Or it means more than $30,000 for every $1,000,000 bet (a level most of us can reach every few years). Of course $30,000 over a few years means hardly anything to someone like you who wins so much.
Would need to know the takeback to get the most accurate edge. With 10-cent lines, that means it closes -131/121. Getting -121 is exactly the same as the book, which means your edge should be whatever their edge is (around 2.3% on baseball).
It doesn't work that way.
When the line moves one direction with no reversals, the closing line is the move after the last bet good enough for a pro to fire. If a pro thought he had a 2% edge and fired at -127, perhaps the book moved to -132. In that case, -127 had a player advantage of 2%. You got -121, so your advantage is closer to 4.5%.
If a player consistently beats a big market closer by 10 cents, he will crush that market.
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#21
Originally posted by vampire assassin
If a player consistently beats a big market closer by 10 cents, he will crush that market.
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TheMoneyShot
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02-14-07
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#22
Don't worry about beating the line... just pick winners.
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
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#23
Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
Don't worry about beating the line... just pick winners.
U Rockefeller now?
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
37438
#24
Originally posted by Sam Odom
Sam, how did u go about picking that avatar?
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#25
Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Sam, how did u go about picking that avatar?
Guy is a Tout... Fuk Him
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TheMoneyShot
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02-14-07
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#26
Originally posted by Sam Odom
Guy is a Tout... Fuk Him
Looks like a politician
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kingdom
SBR Posting Legend
07-25-10
10099
#27
Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
Looks like a politician
Trump, Al Gore, and Jimmy Carter in a blender.
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stackz125
SBR Hall of Famer
01-03-16
6191
#28
Originally posted by jjgold
IT MEANS NOTHING, random beating closers
WHY?????
Yeh you beat some closers 10 -30 cents but you also have tons of bets you get 20 cents or worse!!!
Squares born every minute here, long run you get destroyed gambling daily all sports unless your risk free arbing, hedging and bonus pros
Comment
BuckyOne
SBR MVP
01-02-15
2728
#29
Sam - you would have the world by the NUTS! If you average beating the closing line in baseball on a 10 cent line or better by 10 cents (unless they are all -200) you will make a lot of money and you could do it several ways.
But, you are in la la land dreaming. Nobody is that good!
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#30
Thanks Bucky
GL
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
37438
#31
Originally posted by BuckyOne
Sam - you would have the world by the NUTS! If you average beating the closing line in baseball on a 10 cent line or better by 10 cents (unless they are all -200) you will make a lot of money and you could do it several ways.
But, you are in la la land dreaming. Nobody is that good!
Bucky is spot on here. It's a simple concept. But hard to execute.
Think about it like a compound interest machine. If you had a printing press that was spitting out +2.3% on every spin, what's not to like?
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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ChuckyTheGoat
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04-04-11
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#32
Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
Looks like a politician
Funny thing, Shot. He IS a politician!
Root is noted as a Tout. But he also dabbled in politics. Amazingly, Root was VP on Libertarian ticket in 2008 (w/ Barr).
, Root has stated on a number of occasions that he has no recollection of having met or seen Obama at Columbia.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
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Sam Odom
SBR Aristocracy
10-30-05
58063
#34
Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Root has stated on a number of occasions that he has no recollection of having met or seen Obama at Columbia.
So have others
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bettingman6
SBR Wise Guy
12-21-18
626
#35
Originally posted by Sam Odom
Sammy's dear friend NoCoin used to say zero advantage... Maybe you'll lose more
Example : Get Team A -121... Closes at A -131
Any real $$$ advantage ?
Of course it has an advantage. You'd automatically get more money if you win the bet. The advantage for a better line is more obvious in baseball than it is in any other sport. Getting a better line will help you in about half of your baseball bets. (The bets you win)
In basketball and football, getting an extra point on the spread is only going to make a difference in a small number of games, but the games where it will help you it will be a huge deal. (Since it would mean the difference between winning and losing the bet, or at least would turn a push into a win or a loss into a push.) Basically in baseball a better line will help you a little bit in a large number of games, while in basketball and football a better line will help you a lot in a small number of games.