Just Really... MLB : How good is beating the closing line by 10c ?

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  • Sam Odom
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-30-05
    • 58063

    #1
    Just Really... MLB : How good is beating the closing line by 10c ?
    Sammy's dear friend NoCoin used to say zero advantage... Maybe you'll lose more

    Example : Get Team A -121... Closes at A -131

    Any real $$$ advantage ?
  • vividjohn45
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-21-10
    • 6331

    #2
    In your example was jj on the dog and posting it in his spread sheet? + Expected value
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388179

      #3
      Doesn’t mean anything
      Comment
      • Sam Odom
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-30-05
        • 58063

        #4
        Originally posted by jjgold


        Doesn’t mean anything


        Comment
        • funnyb25
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 07-09-09
          • 39663

          #5
          Ask LT
          Comment
          • Sam Odom
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-30-05
            • 58063

            #6
            where is Mathy when you need him
            Comment
            • TommieGunshot
              SBR MVP
              • 03-27-12
              • 1607

              #7
              Originally posted by jjgold
              Doesn’t mean anything
              At -131, a winning bet pays out 76%; at -121 is pays out 83%. At that number, favorite should win about 57% of the time, so more than 3% better. Or it means more than $30,000 for every $1,000,000 bet (a level most of us can reach every few years). Of course $30,000 over a few years means hardly anything to someone like you who wins so much.

              Would need to know the takeback to get the most accurate edge. With 10-cent lines, that means it closes -131/121. Getting -121 is exactly the same as the book, which means your edge should be whatever their edge is (around 2.3% on baseball).
              Comment
              • KiDBaZkiT
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-20-09
                • 14962

                #8
                Cap the games not the lines. Thank me later.
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 37438

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jjgold
                  Doesn’t mean anything
                  Duly noted. Watch + learn, boys. If JJ it doesn't mean anything...that means that it's EVERYTHING.

                  Give me that portfolio every day of the week. And twice on Sundays.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • jjgold
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-20-05
                    • 388179

                    #10
                    IT MEANS NOTHING, random beating closers

                    WHY?????

                    Yeh you beat some closers 10 -30 cents but you also have tons of bets you get 20 cents or worse!!!

                    Squares born every minute here, long run you get destroyed gambling daily all sports unless your risk free arbing, hedging and bonus pros
                    Comment
                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 04-04-11
                      • 37438

                      #11
                      Plz shut the fk up.
                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                      Comment
                      • CWD
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-22-12
                        • 7665

                        #12
                        bonus pros is that what they call u when u wiggle william hill for $50 spot sign up bonus
                        Comment
                        • DrunkHorseplayer
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 05-15-10
                          • 7719

                          #13
                          It's huge, especially when you're betting into a 10 cent line. If you do that on a consistent basis and the book is tracking you, you'll be booted.
                          Comment
                          • jjgold
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 07-20-05
                            • 388179

                            #14
                            Nobody does it on a consistent basis
                            Comment
                            • asiagambler
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-23-17
                              • 6827

                              #15
                              It is good but you need to do it about 80% of the time to win long term
                              Comment
                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-04-11
                                • 37438

                                #16
                                Originally posted by jjgold
                                Nobody does it on a consistent basis
                                You're a retard. Plz get lost.
                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                Comment
                                • RudyRuetigger
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 08-24-10
                                  • 65084

                                  #17
                                  sammy this could be your dumbest question ever

                                  which speaks VOLUMES
                                  Comment
                                  • jjgold
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 07-20-05
                                    • 388179

                                    #18
                                    People chasing the dream to be broke never forget that
                                    Comment
                                    • sweep
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-09-10
                                      • 16753

                                      #19
                                      Impossible to beat a closer in NJ....Lines too wide. Can cherry pick dogs and props here & there that are better than the market but it takes A TON of time. MLB run lines only thing Ive seen that can be +ev so far in NJ. That said, I got a payout from BetStars in 6 minutes yesterday to their play+ card
                                      Comment
                                      • vampire assassin
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 03-09-18
                                        • 296

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by TommieGunshot
                                        At -131, a winning bet pays out 76%; at -121 is pays out 83%. At that number, favorite should win about 57% of the time, so more than 3% better. Or it means more than $30,000 for every $1,000,000 bet (a level most of us can reach every few years). Of course $30,000 over a few years means hardly anything to someone like you who wins so much.

                                        Would need to know the takeback to get the most accurate edge. With 10-cent lines, that means it closes -131/121. Getting -121 is exactly the same as the book, which means your edge should be whatever their edge is (around 2.3% on baseball).
                                        It doesn't work that way.

                                        When the line moves one direction with no reversals, the closing line is the move after the last bet good enough for a pro to fire. If a pro thought he had a 2% edge and fired at -127, perhaps the book moved to -132. In that case, -127 had a player advantage of 2%. You got -121, so your advantage is closer to 4.5%.

                                        If a player consistently beats a big market closer by 10 cents, he will crush that market.
                                        Comment
                                        • Sam Odom
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-30-05
                                          • 58063

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by vampire assassin

                                          If a player consistently beats a big market closer by 10 cents, he will crush that market.

                                          Comment
                                          • TheMoneyShot
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 02-14-07
                                            • 28672

                                            #22
                                            Don't worry about beating the line... just pick winners.
                                            Comment
                                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 04-04-11
                                              • 37438

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                              Don't worry about beating the line... just pick winners.
                                              U Rockefeller now?
                                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                              Comment
                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 04-04-11
                                                • 37438

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Sam Odom
                                                Sam, how did u go about picking that avatar?
                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                Comment
                                                • Sam Odom
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-30-05
                                                  • 58063

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat


                                                  Sam, how did u go about picking that avatar?
                                                  Guy is a Tout... Fuk Him
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheMoneyShot
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 02-14-07
                                                    • 28672

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Sam Odom
                                                    Guy is a Tout... Fuk Him
                                                    Looks like a politician
                                                    Comment
                                                    • kingdom
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 07-25-10
                                                      • 10099

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                                      Looks like a politician
                                                      Trump, Al Gore, and Jimmy Carter in a blender.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stackz125
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 01-03-16
                                                        • 6191

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by jjgold
                                                        IT MEANS NOTHING, random beating closers

                                                        WHY?????

                                                        Yeh you beat some closers 10 -30 cents but you also have tons of bets you get 20 cents or worse!!!

                                                        Squares born every minute here, long run you get destroyed gambling daily all sports unless your risk free arbing, hedging and bonus pros
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BuckyOne
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-02-15
                                                          • 2728

                                                          #29
                                                          Sam - you would have the world by the NUTS! If you average beating the closing line in baseball on a 10 cent line or better by 10 cents (unless they are all -200) you will make a lot of money and you could do it several ways.

                                                          But, you are in la la land dreaming. Nobody is that good!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Sam Odom
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-30-05
                                                            • 58063

                                                            #30
                                                            Thanks Bucky

                                                            GL

                                                            Comment
                                                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 04-04-11
                                                              • 37438

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by BuckyOne
                                                              Sam - you would have the world by the NUTS! If you average beating the closing line in baseball on a 10 cent line or better by 10 cents (unless they are all -200) you will make a lot of money and you could do it several ways.

                                                              But, you are in la la land dreaming. Nobody is that good!
                                                              Bucky is spot on here. It's a simple concept. But hard to execute.

                                                              Think about it like a compound interest machine. If you had a printing press that was spitting out +2.3% on every spin, what's not to like?
                                                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 04-04-11
                                                                • 37438

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
                                                                Looks like a politician
                                                                Funny thing, Shot. He IS a politician!

                                                                Root is noted as a Tout. But he also dabbled in politics. Amazingly, Root was VP on Libertarian ticket in 2008 (w/ Barr).
                                                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 04-04-11
                                                                  • 37438

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Though in the same graduating class as
                                                                  Barack Obama
                                                                  at
                                                                  Columbia University
                                                                  , Root has stated on a number of occasions that he has no recollection of having met or seen Obama at Columbia.
                                                                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Sam Odom
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-30-05
                                                                    • 58063

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat


                                                                    Root has stated on a number of occasions that he has no recollection of having met or seen Obama at Columbia.


                                                                    So have others
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bettingman6
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-21-18
                                                                      • 626

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Sam Odom
                                                                      Sammy's dear friend NoCoin used to say zero advantage... Maybe you'll lose more

                                                                      Example : Get Team A -121... Closes at A -131

                                                                      Any real $$$ advantage ?
                                                                      Of course it has an advantage. You'd automatically get more money if you win the bet. The advantage for a better line is more obvious in baseball than it is in any other sport. Getting a better line will help you in about half of your baseball bets. (The bets you win)

                                                                      In basketball and football, getting an extra point on the spread is only going to make a difference in a small number of games, but the games where it will help you it will be a huge deal. (Since it would mean the difference between winning and losing the bet, or at least would turn a push into a win or a loss into a push.) Basically in baseball a better line will help you a little bit in a large number of games, while in basketball and football a better line will help you a lot in a small number of games.
                                                                      Comment
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