Wednesday Plays?? More Focused Today

[jjgold]

[Believe_EMT]

i'm on the Over

jjgold posts today
Over 84.5 -145
Under 84.5 +120

poop line as listed in SBR Sportsbook

[hubie69]

EMT, over for sure is the play. I wish theyd be more specific and let us break it down to which shift JJ has the most.

[KiDBaZkiT]

Taking dabs now going over card.

[funnyb25]

[Duckshit]

Rich guys call this The Daily Fade thread.

[SBR Tony]

JJ out of Betpoints, will start a thread to Genie saying how nice she is -300

[hubie69]

JJ getting picked apart today

[Shev2]

Here's what I'm projecting today:

date	team1	team2	Park	Projected Total	Line	Model Pick
5/29/2019	LAD	NYM	Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California)	8.83	7.5	Over
5/29/2019	TBD	TOR	Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)	7.39	7.5	Under
5/29/2019	FLA	SFG	Marlins Park (Miami, Florida)	5.20	7.0	Under
5/29/2019	BAL	DET	Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland)	9.01	10.0	Under
5/29/2019	BOS	CLE	Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)	10.17	9.0	Over
5/29/2019	SEA	TEX	T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)	8.85	9.50	Under
5/29/2019	OAK	ANA	Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California)	8.12	9.5	Under
5/29/2019	NYY	SDP	Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)	7.38	8.0	Under
5/29/2019	CIN	PIT	Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)	10.35	10.5	Under
5/29/2019	CHW	KCR	Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago, Illinois)	9.11	9.0	Over
5/29/2019	ATL	WSN	SunTrust Park (Cumberland, GA)	9.82	10.0	Under
5/29/2019	PHI	STL	Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	11.16	10.0	Over
5/29/2019	HOU	CHC	Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)	10.05	9.0	Over

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/26/2019	11	3	0	79%
5/27/2019	6	5	1	55%
5/28/2019	7	5	1	58%

[KiDBaZkiT]

Pirates f5 +135

[shocka1212]

Pirates f5 +135

thats a great play

[KiDBaZkiT]

Took 10 posts to get an actual play posted? SBR we are better than this. Remember we are here to gamble not socialize. This is business, not play time.

[The General]

Dodgers

[2daBank]

Took 10 posts to get an actual play posted? SBR we are better than this. Remember we are here to gamble not socialize. This is business, not play time.

That some bs pal. I don’t need this site to gamble, I need it to socialize w my degenerate interweb friends!!!

[BIGDAY]

Twins are off tonight... Might walk the card.

[2daBank]

Blues HUGE!!!

Kinda scared but fukk it, if the ship goes down I’m sinking with it!!!

Blues did look equally bad in game 1 in San Jose too and they bounced back like champs as they have been doing since January!!! This team is resilient as fukk!!!

not gonna lie, after we went up
2-0 in game 1 we were all dancing and celebrating!! Ya’ll know what happened next, we got our asses royally kicked for the next 38 minutes!! Lol., out shot 18 to 2 the remaining 18 minutes of 2nd period after bruins handed us the 2nd goal.

Those 18ish minutes were probably the most dominant stretch of hockey I’ve witnessed these playoffs, even more so than couple stretches of sharks series where blues owned them! I didn’t see very much of the bruins/Carolina series so maybe there been a more dominant stretch, I just havnt seen it..

Bruins style made what blues like to do incredibly difficult. We are big into puck possession and often accomplish that by passing it back and/or side to side and seemed like every one those passes were broken up or worse flat out intercepted to start a bruins rush up the ice. Very good scouting on their part as that definitely where teams have had most success against us getting into those passing lanes and letting us turn it over.

The chief has made excellent adjustments all playoffs so I fully expect blues to alter a bit and push the puck up the ice, dump it in and chase, just get the puck back behind the bruins defense then go get it!!! No more attempting cute passes into areas bruins have flooded w extra guys!!


Then the other obvious thing that killed us game one was those undisciplined incredibly uncharacteristic penalties which while only resulted in 1 bruins PP goal on the 5 chances but gave bruins tons of momentum even after the pp was killed. Killing them drained our energy and also kept certain guys we need having less ice time than normal. I absolutely expect blues will clean that up as they typically pretty good in this department.

Last game looked bad but there a clear and obvious path for blues to come away with the split. No dumb penalties, dump it in behind the bruins defense instead of attempting to control puck and turn over in process, beat the crap out of Boston on the forecheck after dumping it in. Bennington standing on his head as he has all season after a loss!! He wasn’t bad gm1 but that power play goal is a shot he stops 99 out of 100, he must have lost the puck cause he didn’t even react till it was by him and you could tell he was way more pissed than he typically shows after a goal.

Let’s go BLUES!!!!

[2daBank]

Twins are off tonight... Might walk the card.

Only thing that can stop them at the moment is a scheduled day off!!! Lol

[johnnyvegas13]

I'm tempted to chase on the stupid hockey gm

Y is line high again at +150

Is Boston unbeatable right now ?

[magpie878]

Boston is playing extremely good hockey at the moment.

[2daBank]

I'm tempted to chase on the stupid hockey gm

Y is line high again at +150

Is Boston unbeatable right now ?

Seems to be the perception, jury still out if it reality!!! Blues are pretty damn good themselves and don’t see them making same mistakes again and as I mentioned I expect coach to make proper adjustments.

[johnnyvegas13]

Boston is playing extremely good hockey at the moment.

Ya agree the comeback win was good for them

They r taking that momo into gm 2

[2daBank]

Boston is playing extremely good hockey at the moment.

Can’t argue that but so are the blues, as is pretty much every team who gets to this point. Blues looked like the better team early. I’m not gonna let a bad stretch change my views on them when they have bounced back from bad losses all year!!

Maybe I’d feel differently had they played their best and it went down like that. That was not their best tho. The 5 penalties alone way out of character.

[magpie878]

Can’t argue that but so are the blues, as is pretty much every team who gets to this point. Blues looked like the better team early. I’m not gonna let a bad stretch change my views on them when they have bounced back from bad losses all year!!

Maybe I’d feel differently had they played their best and it went down like that. That was not their best tho. The 5 penalties alone way out of character.

I'm not really disagreeing, but I think the bookmakers will keep giving odds like these all series. Bruins getting much book respect. Bucks did, even when not deserved. Tampa Bay did in round one, even when they were clearly done. Happens. Blues can certainly win this. But the Bruins numbers are great.

[Snowball]

Bruins no problem

[2daBank]

I'm not really disagreeing, but I think the bookmakers will keep giving odds like these all series. Bruins getting much book respect. Bucks did, even when not deserved. Tampa Bay did in round one, even when they were clearly done. Happens. Blues can certainly win this. But the Bruins numbers are great.

Yea for sure. Series price kinda said that was gonna be the case... I’m not super confident blues win the series, I’m pretty damn confident they win this game.

[KVB]

Emerging from the lab here with a handful of Contrarian Fund plays...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

903	29-May	STL +160
906		MIA +103
907		WAS +153
910		COL +107
919		CLE -104

...

[jjgold]

[BIGDAY]

JJ, you might go 0-3

[GzaTheGenius]

Blues +150
Too good to pass up guys

[2daBank]

Blues HUGE!!!

Kinda scared but fukk it, if the ship goes down I’m sinking with it!!!

Blues did look equally bad in game 1 in San Jose too and they bounced back like champs as they have been doing since January!!! This team is resilient as fukk!!!

not gonna lie, after we went up
2-0 in game 1 we were all dancing and celebrating!! Ya’ll know what happened next, we got our asses royally kicked for the next 38 minutes!! Lol., out shot 18 to 2 the remaining 18 minutes of 2nd period after bruins handed us the 2nd goal.

Those 18ish minutes were probably the most dominant stretch of hockey I’ve witnessed these playoffs, even more so than couple stretches of sharks series where blues owned them! I didn’t see very much of the bruins/Carolina series so maybe there been a more dominant stretch, I just havnt seen it..

Bruins style made what blues like to do incredibly difficult. We are big into puck possession and often accomplish that by passing it back and/or side to side and seemed like every one those passes were broken up or worse flat out intercepted to start a bruins rush up the ice. Very good scouting on their part as that definitely where teams have had most success against us getting into those passing lanes and letting us turn it over.

The chief has made excellent adjustments all playoffs so I fully expect blues to alter a bit and push the puck up the ice, dump it in and chase, just get the puck back behind the bruins defense then go get it!!! No more attempting cute passes into areas bruins have flooded w extra guys!!


Then the other obvious thing that killed us game one was those undisciplined incredibly uncharacteristic penalties which while only resulted in 1 bruins PP goal on the 5 chances but gave bruins tons of momentum even after the pp was killed. Killing them drained our energy and also kept certain guys we need having less ice time than normal. I absolutely expect blues will clean that up as they typically pretty good in this department.

Last game looked bad but there a clear and obvious path for blues to come away with the split. No dumb penalties, dump it in behind the bruins defense instead of attempting to control puck and turn over in process, beat the crap out of Boston on the forecheck after dumping it in. Bennington standing on his head as he has all season after a loss!! He wasn’t bad gm1 but that power play goal is a shot he stops 99 out of 100, he must have lost the puck cause he didn’t even react till it was by him and you could tell he was way more pissed than he typically shows after a goal.

Let’s go BLUES!!!!

Boom. Playoff hockey is the greatest!

[2daBank]

Bennington scared me a little giving up a big time softy on the 1st pp goal, the second wasn’t as bad but also one he could have and had been stopping. He was nails after that tho!!!

[Shev2]

So far modeling seems to be well worth it. Going to keep running the baseball projections and watching the results.

Surprised at how well the model is doing this week. Last game is finishing up but the daily win/loss numbers for model picks are final:

By Day
Date	Win	Loss	Push	Win %
5/26/2019	11	3	0	79%
5/27/2019	6	5	1	55%
5/28/2019	7	5	1	58%
5/29/2019	9	4	0	69%

Will keep running projections. I'm staying away from Wrigley and Coors projections for now. I need to look at those more closely. In the process of setting up my bankroll to play all of the model picks daily. Hoping to start making either $50 or $100 unit plays with the model starting next week. I'll post those plays with prices too once I start playing.

[2daBank]

It be helpful if we could see the average line you playing Shev

[Shev2]

It be helpful if we could see the average line you playing Shev

I project the scores then go to Bovada and just pull game totals from their main MLB page. I would assume you could use between -110 and -115 if you are trying to approx the unit gain or loss from the model. Sure, some plays may have been even money and some around -120 or -125, but using the model's projections and multiple websites or books to make plays should give you an average price between -110 and -115 over the long run if I had to estimate. I'm actually going to start using the model to make my own plays, and will start recording the price I book them at too.

[2daBank]

I project the scores then go to Bovada and just pull game totals from their main MLB page. I would assume you could use between -110 and -115 if you are trying to approx the unit gain or loss from the model. Sure, some plays may have been even money and some around -120 or -125, but using the model's projections and multiple websites or books to make plays should give you an average price between -110 and -115 over the long run if I had to estimate. I'm actually going to start using the model to make my own plays, and will start recording the price I book them at too.

Oh are those all totals?? Doing quite well if you staying below -120.