Horse Racing partner wanted....

tacomax · 07-17-09, 11:59 PM

I'll help you, pal. Want some help with the wife?

Richkas · 07-18-09, 12:06 AM

10 cent supers are where its at. Thursday at Belmont a 10 center paid $4,800.00

Casperwaits · 07-18-09, 12:14 AM

I am there for you Curious.

TodaysAction · 07-18-09, 12:59 AM

Capping horses by just using the toteboard will send you home with empty pockets. Learn "how to" cap a track, get good at it, add another, repeat until you have enough to go year round. Every track is different, and it takes a while to learn each one.

curious · 07-18-09, 06:53 AM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

Capping horses by just using the toteboard will send you home with empty pockets. Learn "how to" cap a track, get good at it, add another, repeat until you have enough to go year round. Every track is different, and it takes a while to learn each one.

After betting 100 races a day for 1 week I disagree. I am up tons using the research and the approach I discuss in my other post. Yesterday I won a net of $19,000.

20Four7 · 07-18-09, 07:00 AM

First off are you talking standardbred (trotters) or thorough bred horses. As someone said every track is different and some have built in bias's. For example certain tracks are known to have a dead rail if the weather has been wet etc. Talking about capping horses is like talking about capping basketball.... are you dealing with NBA, WNBA, college....

GL with it curious but most serious cappers probably won't get involved.

curious · 07-18-09, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by 20Four7

First off are you talking standardbred (trotters) or thorough bred horses. As someone said every track is different and some have built in bias's. For example certain tracks are known to have a dead rail if the weather has been wet etc. Talking about capping horses is like talking about capping basketball.... are you dealing with NBA, WNBA, college....

All tracks.

GL with it curious but most serious cappers probably won't get involved.

Why? All I am asking is that they look at races and filter out the entrants that don't have a chance so that I can build exactas/trifectas/and superfectas around my pick with fewer tickets.

So, you are telling me that picking horses at an average of 10-1 odds that hit the board 40-50% of the time in 700 straight races means nothing? I don't believe that. I have looked at cappers in a lot of forums and I haven't found anyone who even comes close to being able to do that.

PAPSMEAR · 07-18-09, 07:41 AM

Horses are best found in a nice stew

jjgold · 07-18-09, 08:07 AM

Curious great idea but I doubt you will find here, I would try paceadvantage.com

Curious you really seem into horses

Casperwaits · 07-18-09, 08:11 AM

Curious, what do I have to say to convince you I am SERIOUS!! I read your philiosophy and it is similar to mine. I have been playing 8-1 shots for years now and I know how to handicap. Granted, I lose more than I win, but I do bet the horses daily. Yesterday, I bet 6 different tracks and about 50 different races.

KingRevolver · 07-18-09, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by PAPSMEAR

Horses are best found in a nice stew

I like Curious' enthusiasm but horses is a bunch of shit. Don't get me wrong, I like to play them here and there but I view it the same way as roulette.

KingRevolver · 07-18-09, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by Casperwaits

Curious, what do I have to say to convince you I am SERIOUS!! I read your philiosophy and it is similar to mine. I have been playing 8-1 shots for years now and I know how to handicap. Granted, I lose more than I win, but I do bet the horses daily. Yesterday, I bet 6 different tracks and about 50 different races.

It's hard to take you serious Casper after your Michael Jackson video.

Glad to see there's a few folks around here that like racing.

TheIntegrityKid · 07-18-09, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by KingRevolver

I like Curious' enthusiasm but horses is a bunch of shit. Don't get me wrong, I like to play them here and there but I view it the same way as roulette.

So then playing horses often and hoping to make a profit would be a bunch of horse shit?

Casperwaits · 07-18-09, 08:16 AM

KR, at the bash we will sip Pina Coladas, bet the horses and talk about the good ol days. Bank on it.

TheIntegrityKid · 07-18-09, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by Casperwaits

KR, at the bash we will sip Pina Coladas, bet the horses and talk about the good ol days. Bank on it.

Damn Casper, you are making me wanna go to this bash.. Doubt KR likes the girlie drinks, but I sure do haha

Casperwaits · 07-18-09, 08:28 AM

Integrity, I hate them girly drinks, but this one time I am going to allow an exception. You should get to the bash as well. You and KR are like Peanut Butter and Jelly.

KingRevolver · 07-18-09, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by Casperwaits

Integrity, I hate them girly drinks, but this one time I am going to allow an exception. You should get to the bash as well. You and KR are like Peanut Butter and Jelly.

*shudders*

I'm a Scotch drinker, btw.

Integrity Boy knows I'm not into girlie drinks but they can be fun to have at times

jellobiafra · 07-18-09, 08:57 AM

Mmmm. Scotch.

What do you like Kinger? Single Malt? Blends? Smooth and easy or fireplace ashes? Rocks or up?

You can learn a lot about a man from what kind and how he drinks his Scotch. I drink mine straight up usually, but occassionally with a few cubes of ice.

I'm currently on a Laphroaig kick. But I'll take a Macallan any day of the week.

wtf · 07-18-09, 08:57 AM

curious, i was the resident hong kong racing handicapper for the winning edge when they were live.

but i really dont think a handicapper will increase your profits, it will just cloud your selections frankly.

Flying Dutchman · 07-18-09, 08:58 AM

Interesting, a person spends some serious time building a data base, comes up with some interesting results, and most of you guys spit on him.

curious, I'm a mathematician with a license to kill; PM me if you'd like to talk more...

KingRevolver · 07-18-09, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Mmmm. Scotch.

What do you like Kinger? Single Malt? Blends? Smooth and easy or fireplace ashes? Rocks or up?

You can learn a lot about a man from what kind and how he drinks his Scotch. I drink mine straight up usually, but occassionally with a few cubes of ice.

I'm currently on a Laphroaig kick. But I'll take a Macallan any day of the week.

I like Scotch on the rocks.

I prefer single malt but that can get quite expensive so I settle for the blends.

What does that say about me, Jello? I'm a pussy?

jellobiafra · 07-18-09, 09:07 AM

Says you're broke like me. And you might not have been drinking it for quite as long. When I first started drinking Scotch I always watered it down with ton of ice. (not saying that's what you do) Also used to be a Johnnie Walker guy (blends). Then I moved to single malts. Then I started asking for 3 cubes of ice. Now I drink it straight except sometimes on hot summer nights I'll put ice in it. Life is all about evolution son.

milwaukee mike · 07-18-09, 09:09 AM

i agree with wtf here. why would you let human error fault your system?
the system works (or doesn't) because of the combined strengths and weaknesses of every horse bettor, by tweaking it you are voiding it imho.

Dark Horse · 07-18-09, 09:13 AM

Curious, read up on horses. The best values you're looking for (W/P/S, exactas, trifectas, etc) are very well covered in Money Secrets At The Race Track, by Meadow. He does assume that you can cap, however. In fact, he advises, along with many others, that you learn how to calculate your own line for every horse in the race. That, of course, is much more involving than a week of research. If you're looking for a shortcut, good luck. If it were as easy as you suggest, believe me, everybody would be doing it. Horse racing is probably the most researched field in all of sports betting, and the literature compared to other sports is incredible (many ideas carry over to other sports). Read up on it. You'll be glad you did.

Dark Horse · 07-18-09, 09:20 AM

In the races that I cap, quarter horses, I can tell you the horses that don't stand a chance. Are you just looking for a filter?

curious · 07-18-09, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Flying Dutchman

Interesting, a person spends some serious time building a data base, comes up with some interesting results, and most of you guys spit on him.

curious, I'm a mathematician with a license to kill; PM me if you'd like to talk more...

SBR took my pm's away because i stood up to some of the bullies on here.

One thing that I noticed, if I count 4th place as "hitting the board", is that the picks I am making hit the board a really high % of the time. Since these picks average 10-1, I've had them as high as 29-1, a superfecta with my pick as one of the spots has a very high payoff. Problem is since I don't know how to weed out the entrants that have no chance of hitting the board I have to use the entire field in all the slots except 4th (my pick is in the 4th slot). For a field of 8 this is 336 tickets. If I could cut that down to say a field of 5, that would be 60 tickets. Even making it a field of 6 cuts it to 120 tickets.

I bet the pick WPS using a ratio of x 2x 4x and a superfecta of all/all/all/my pick. Weeding out the "dont' have a chance" entrants and cutting the field down might make it possible to use exactas, trifectas, and superfectas instead for the WPS and make the superfecta more manageable. I think this has a huge possibility.

My email address is i_bee_curious@yahoo.com

curious · 07-18-09, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

In the races that I cap, quarter horses, I can tell you the horses that don't stand a chance. Are you just looking for a filter?

Yes, I am just looking for a filter.

I bet my picks WPS using the ratio X 2X 4X, for example $100 Win $200 Place $400 Show. I then bet the pick to come in 4th using a superfecta with my pick in the 4th slot. Right now I have to do all/all/all/my pick. My picks come in 4th A LOT. It would be a lot better if I could use some smaller set of the field for the 1,2, and 3 slots in the superfecta.

Then I started looking at the exacta and trifecta payoffs if my pick came in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. My picks average more than 10-1. These payoffs are usually very high. So, I am thinking it might be better to use exactas and trifectas to make an equivalent of the WPS bet. This will only work if I can cut the number of entrants down.

The number of other entrants you need to look at is smaller depending on what place you think my pick will come in.

For the W equivalent I would say pick 4 entrants that can hit the board and use my pick / 1,2,3. For the P equivalent, you might can cut this list to 3 and do 1,2,3 / my pick. For the S equivalent you might use the 3 list in first position, the 4 list in 2nd position and my pick in 3rd position. 1,2,3/1,2,3,4/my pick. FOr the superfecta you might want to extend the list to a field of 5. 1,2,3/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5/my pick.

This could be done with 30 tickets. Using say $25 per ticket, the payoff should be pretty substantial given that my picks average 10-1.

I'm fairly new at this so there are probably better ways of using exotic wagers than I am describing. But, I think this expresses what I want to do.

Dark Horse · 07-18-09, 09:48 AM

Talk to Ultimateselector. I think he has 20+ years of toteboard betting. He doesn't cap anything but the board.

(posted before seeing your reply)

ICE-BLOOD · 07-18-09, 09:49 AM

tough to overcome almost 20% track take from the wagering pool

reading the toteboard has too many last minute fluctuations to be able to get your horse at the price you think at the time you wager

consider filtering out races from the card

Dark Horse · 07-18-09, 09:59 AM

There is a lot of software that will cap your horses for you. Why not buy a few programs and see what works for you? Since you seem to want to take the fast track.

When you start to talk a very large volume of tickets I'm looking first at the possible leaks. What odds are you using? Your data base will be based on the closing lines, but those lines aren't know until the race goes off. A 10-1 horse three minutes before the race can go off as a 3-1 horse. In order to bet a large combination of tickets you need a certain amount of time... Plus your bets will affect the payout. If you put a lot of money on a 10-1 horse, that horse is not going to be 10-1 anymore. And at the smaller tracks it will not take much money at all to send that horse down to 2-1.

TodaysAction · 07-18-09, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by curious

After betting 100 races a day for 1 week I disagree. I am up tons using the research and the approach I discuss in my other post. Yesterday I won a net of $19,000.

With all do respect, that's not a large sample (1 week/700 races) sir. Congrats on your winnings. If you're looking for 'filters', you need to learn how to read the PP's (past performances) as they give an indication of the horses' conditioning, ability, etc. They use to have a user's guide on the Daily Racing Form's site, drf.com, at least by reading that blip you should be able to eliminate some from contention.

curious · 07-18-09, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

There is a lot of software that will cap your horses for you. Why not buy a few programs and see what works for you? Since you seem to want to take the fast track.

When you start to talk a very large volume of tickets I'm looking first at the possible leaks. What odds are you using? Your data base will be based on the closing lines, but those lines aren't know until the race goes off. A 10-1 horse three minutes before the race can go off as a 3-1 horse. In order to bet a large combination of tickets you need a certain amount of time... Plus your bets will affect the payout. If you put a lot of money on a 10-1 horse, that horse is not going to be 10-1 anymore. And at the smaller tracks it will not take much money at all to send that horse down to 2-1.

i'm using the closing lines and yes I know those are not the same as 2 MTP. I can't find minute by minute lines for all the tracks.

For large wagers, I am not wagering at establishments that send the money to the pool, so my wagers dont affect the odds. For smaller wagers I look at the pool size to make sure I am not affecting the odds. If the pool size is really small I see if there is somewhere else to make the play.

Dark Horse · 07-18-09, 09:34 PM

Capping every race would be impossibly time consuming. You may want to look at Steve Fierro's book (Four Quarters of Horse Investing). He gives examples for standard odds combinations that show if there is value in a bet or not. That sidesteps the time-consuming need to calculate your own lines. To create such a template for your horses, you would have to research the odds of other horses related to your 10-1 horses over a large sample size. I'm not sure that it can be done in 'negative', to filter out outsiders, but he did it for races with four contenders (one template), and three contenders (another template). Fierro's templates are also shown in the book The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping (Quinn).

andywend · 07-19-09, 12:19 AM

I was bored last week so I created a database of all horse races at all tracks for the past 10 years. Then I found the average odds for all horses, then I found the standard deviation. Then I created percentile ranges for the odds from <=.5 to >=31. Then I calculated ROI for each range.

The odds which had the top ROI was 8-1.

So, I watch the toteboard and pick the entrant that is closest to equal to or greater than 8-1.

Curious, just blindly betting on horses closest to or greater than 8-1 is GUARANTEED to result in substantial losses over the long term.

You have a 20% track take to deal with (minus the rebate you're getting from the books you use) and you also have to deal with betting into pools against people who have far more information than you including owners, trainers and handicappers who pay quite handsomely for information that truly matters.

I owned horses for almost 20 years in Southern California and have been betting seriously on horses for almost 30 years.

If you're simply reading the toteboard and betting based on the odds you see, you have ZERO CHANCE to turn a profit betting on horses in the long term.

I believe your research showing 8-1 to be the highest ROI is incorrect.

Most people don't know this but if you're blindly betting based on the board, you will lose the least by betting odds on horses (horses below even money). The longer the odds, the worse return you get with the longest odds showing the worst ROI.

Once again, this assumes you're blindly betting based on the odds without any handicapping.

I developed my own system which is quite complicated having to do strictly with claiming races where I have made quite a nice profit for over 10 years.

I subscribe to DRF.com and have their unlimited plan. I download every single major track in North America (currently 25 racetracks).

Averaging 9 races per track per day, I analyze 225 races per day and over 1500 races per week/6000 races per month.

Out of those 6000 races, I average around 10-15 real plays per month.