*imgv announcement* IfLSU don't win by more thn 3 pts I'm qutting gambling for awhile

[imgv94]

Serious.. Will not post another play for months!!!

Hammered LSU for 10 Units @ -7.5 right when the line came out..
Have 59 teasers ending to LSU -2.5 and -3
Have about 8 Parlays ending to LSU ML...

This is a huge play for me.. Largest wager I've made in a very long time!!!

If LSU loses or doesn't win by 3 or more you will not see me posting plays here for a very long time..

Anyone else have LSU big in here??

[freebie]

Good luck, Dude

[HAPPY BOY]

I love LSU but line is all way up to 9. That may be a bit high, Im with u if LSU doesn't win by at least a fg than fvck maybe we should find another hobby. Think that defense is sick and should craete turnovers. GL BRO

[imgv94]

LSU has the best defense in the nation.. Numerous players on that defense will be in the NFL...

ND has no team speed and Quinn will be sacked a lot..

[Checkerboard]

Luck Shall
Unfold!

for imgv94 in 2-007 Bond, James Bond . . . GL from checkerboard

[imgv94]

LSU will not

Lose
Straight
Up

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

IMGV, I really see LSU taking it to the Irish on Wednesday... The Tigers defense will be all over Quinn and Walker... I believe Jemarcus will have a solid game Wednesday in hopes that he can declare for the upcoming draft! My prediction for this game is LSU 27 Notre Dame 17! If the real Tigers defense shows up, it might be less than 17 for the Irish! I have a lot of eggs in the "LSU BASKET" as well! Let's hope for the best! This has been an absolutely horrible bowl season for me! I need to LSU to bring me back a little bit! I still think the Florida has a great shot at beating Ohio State in the title game! Anyone else lookin to take a shot on the Gators ML next Monday?

LSU Tigers will win big on January 3rd, 2007!

[Jay Edgar]

I am passing it, but GL bro.

Lord knows it's about time for an SEC squad to live up to the hype.

[onlooker]

I have no play in the Sugar Bowl bro. But good luck with your bet, and not sure laying off betting for months is the answer. Im sure you would beable to bounce back from it.

But again, good luck.

[nevadaside]

GL imgv ......tear it up!

LSU

[imgv94]

My predicted score

Notre Dame 20

LSU 38

Thanks for all the support guys.. 2007 BABY!@!

[Aces]

IMGV tell you what i'll do for you. I'll put a small wager on Notre Dame this will assure you a win. Every game I bet on has come up pure shit. GL I like LSU as well.

[imgv94]

Don't do that bet LSU bro..

Don't throw away $$ on ND..

[Illusion]

I love LSU imgv. I have the ml and spread very big.

[imgv94]

I love LSU imgv. I have the ml and spread very big.

[Chuck Sims]

Good luck. I have LSU in a teaser too. My big play is Ohio St. They are going to blow the doors off that Fla team.

[Razz]

I'm really starting to like Notre Dame.

[imgv94]

Good luck. I have LSU in a teaser too. My big play is Ohio St. They are going to blow the doors off that Fla team.

[JoshW]

Whenever anyone puts their future gambling or posting on one game that is a sign in and of itself to get out for a while, win or lose. Whether is really backing yourself in a corner or not, time to quit.

[imgv94]

Like poker---

Going all-in feller.. Feel I have the right hand to do it with.. Chances like this do not come everyday or every week.. How many times did I actually make a HUGE wager like this is in 2006 maybe once or twice..

LSU is the right play and it will take intervention from God for ND to win this game or lose within a TD...

[aceking]

so is your total bets over $100 ?

don't sweat the small change.

[primo_skillz]

LSU all the WAY!




Lets win this one and make the end of the NFL season not feel so bad!!!!

Best of luck Bro!

[Ganchrow]

Serious.. Will not post another play for months!!!

Hammered LSU for 10 Units @ -7.5 right when the line came out..
Have 59 teasers ending to LSU -2.5 and -3
Have about 8 Parlays ending to LSU ML...

This is a huge play for me.. Largest wager I've made in a very long time!!!

If LSU loses or doesn't win by 3 or more you will not see me posting plays here for a very long time..

Anyone else have LSU big in here??

Just out of curiosity, what probability do you give Notre Dame of winning the game SU?

[imgv94]

Just out of curiosity, what probability do you give Notre Dame of winning the game SU?

I'm being extremely honest with this answer.. 2%

It would be one of the more shocking things I've ever witnessed in sports..

Notre Dame is not a real team...

[tacomax]

I'm being extremely honest with this answer.. 2%

Either:

a) The books have got their calculations off by a mile.

b) You have got your calculations off by a mile.

[imgv94]

Either:

a) The books have got their calculations off by a mile.

b) You have got your calculations off by a mile.

[aceking]

Either:

a) The books have got their calculations off by a mile.

b) You have got your calculations off by a mile.

+260/-320 , its actually 27.78%

and the line is dropping fast , you can probably get -7 later .

[imgv94]

Really why Aceking?

[Ganchrow]

Either:

a) The books have got their calculations off by a mile.

b) You have got your calculations off by a mile.

taco's quite right here. I would hasten to add, however, a third possibility, specifically that the books' and your numbers are all off by a bit. At +275/-300 (which is the inside market among non-exchanges that I'm currently seeing) LSU's implied win probability is "only" 73.77%.

If your 98% estimate is indeed correct, then this would imply an expected return of about 30.67% and a whopping single-bet Kelly stake of 92% of your bankroll. That's pretty huge.

Whenever I see an apparent opportunity like this I always try to answer these two question:

1. What am I seeing that the rest of the market is ignoring?
2. Why in this case do I think I'm that much smarter than the market as a whole?

Now you may very well have excellent answers to these two questions, and I'm not asking you to tell me what those answers might be. But just make very sure that you do think long and hard about them. Remember that it's not only about why you're right ... but also about why the rest of the market as a whole is so incredibly wrong in totally missing what you're seeing.

Now even if the market were indeed correct, you're still three times more likely to win a straight-up bet on LSU than you are to lose it. But if you bet this game and its derivatives as if your single-bet Kelly stake were 92% when in fact we're really only looking at (let's say) a SB Kelly stake of 15% (implying a still hefty 5% edge and an LSU win prob of 78.75%) this becomes a likely recipe for eventual disaster (although to be fair your expected profit after a large number of bets would be quite positive indeed -- it's just that most of the time you'd expect to lose nearly everything).

So just take this as a note of caution. You have nothing whatsoever to prove to me or to anyone else. But just be 100% sure you've proven it to yourself.

Anyway, best of luck to you on this set of bets (and of course on all your others, too). I know I'll be pulling for LSU.

[imgv94]

No I'm not smarter than everybody else, just need to be smarter than the ones betting ND..

I mention many reasons as to why I'm wagering so much on LSU in a detailed analysis..

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/23334-imgv-100-unit-play-long-writeup-inside.html

Bro I'm considering this an investment.. I don't wager like this frequently a lot of my wagers are 99% less than what I have wagered in this game..

This is how I feel in poker terms, feel I have a great hand and basically going all in.. I'd be shocked if LSU lost..

Can't really explain it cause it's not scientific, I just believe LSU is superior to that of ND and there isn't a bone in my body that tells me otherwise..

[The Genius]

GL imgv and everyone else.

Your thinking is correct, I like LSU by a big margin here. Speedy wideouts to much for ND.

The only thing stopping this will be the desire of the ND players to break a 7 bowl game skid. If LSU can score early all u guys can go to ur bookies at the end of the 1st qtr and ask for your money and here them crying.

If by some chance ND scores an upset win, I wouldn't be too upset with the bet u placed.

I have no wager in this game, but it's very tempting.

[aceking]

the price is not worth it .

I'd rather risk it on Federer winning the Australian Open at -220

[SBR_John]

Good luck img.

I have ND because I feel the back door is wide open at +9. ND's two lossed showed they were simply overmatched to what we now know are two of the best teams in Michigan and USC.

I'd put LSU's talent a rung below USC and Michigan but still they have a rather healthy talent advantage. We see it evey year where these big dogs use the month to prepare better than the laid back big favorites. I think that will replay again tonight.

How about an LSU 7 point victory and we can bot dance in the streets!

[Dark Horse]

I don't really like either of these teams.
8.5 pts in a game like this sure makes a 6 pt teaser both ways look pretty.

[imgv94]

Thanks fellas.. I believe LSU talent is under appreciated..