Trevor Williams/Pirates as an Underdog.

[Chi_archie]

Pirates FF +115

Guy is maybe the most under-rated pitcher in the League.

Market has not caught up with him yet

Guy was basically top ten in ERA and Whip in the NL last year.

But post all star he was literally the best pitcher in the NL

1.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in the 2nd half last year.

Guy is Kyle Hendricks like in his control and methodology with a bit more power


3rd year in the league and he's finally putting it together.

go ahead and take the Pie Rats full game and under. They have one of the top bullpens in league

[RudyRuetigger]

good info

TAILING

[Brock Landers]

Game will be postponed

Look at the radar

[Chi_archie]

Game will be postponed

Look at the radar

ugh

well that's no fun

[Fred The Hammer]

Pirates FF +115

Guy is maybe the most under-rated pitcher in the League.

Market has not caught up with him yet

Guy was basically top ten in ERA and Whip in the NL last year.

But post all star he was literally the best pitcher in the NL

1.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in the 2nd half last year.

Guy is Kyle Hendricks like in his control and methodology with a bit more power


3rd year in the league and he's finally putting it together.

go ahead and take the Pie Rats full game and under. They have one of the top bullpens in league

I'm on Sonny Gray and the Redlegs. Williams was good last year, but PNC is a pitchers park. He's given up 4 er in 6ip in Cincy. Great American Smallpark is a different animal! Kemp is in the lineup today too for the Reds. He's been killing it in April/May before age catches up to him and he wears down.

[TheMoneyShot]

Cincinnati batters are .353 avg and .429 obp lifetime against Williams

Somehow they are hitting him hard....

Could be different today...

Good luck Arch... hope you win!

[Chi_archie]

Cincinnati batters are .353 avg and .429 obp lifetime against Williams

Somehow they are hitting him hard....

Could be different today...

Good luck Arch... hope you win!

looking at the batting vs Pitching stats can be very deceiving

I used to use it as a tool but learned that it really is not valuable at all in predictive data

I will still take a glance at it, but take it with 5 grains of salt

last year Williams faced Cincy twice and won both. in Sept he shut them out for 6 2/3 innings and the bucs won 5-1

so that metric would have lost for you twice in 2018 with Williams

[NYproGambler]

But you realize last year's Cincinnati line up was bit different..

[2daBank]

looking at the batting vs Pitching stats can be very deceiving

I used to use it as a tool but learned that it really is not valuable at all in predictive data

I will still take a glance at it, but take it with 5 grains of salt

last year Williams faced Cincy twice and won both. in Sept he shut them out for 6 2/3 innings and the bucs won 5-1

so that metric would have lost for you twice in 2018 with Williams

I like it as part of the picture but agree can be pretty meaningless. Often times especially if sample small I like a good pitcher who the hitters have had some success against because the law of averages often times plays out in this sport. Sometimes guys just see certain pitchers really well but more than not you can expect limited great numbers to regress.

[Chi_archie]

I like it as part of the picture but agree can be pretty meaningless. Often times especially if sample small I like a good pitcher who the hitters have had some success against because the law of averages often times plays out in this sport. Sometimes guys just see certain pitchers really well but more than not you can expect limited great numbers to regress.

looks like Williams had a few rough outings as a relief pitcher in 2016 and 2017 which skewed the data

but as a starter he's not given up more than 2 ER's in any of his last 4 starts and appearances vs cincy in 2017/18

you gotta dig deeper and make a few extra clicks to see what is behind the numbers


but yeah it can be useful as an alert to dig deeper

[Chi_archie]

Game will be postponed

Look at the radar

brock so sharp

doubleheader for memorial day weekend


good thing they took yesterday off on a beautiful day

[2daBank]

brock so sharp

doubleheader for memorial day weekend


good thing they took yesterday off on a beautiful day

Kinda a double edge sword, need to put a day off in there in case the opener gets rained out, ppl pay a premium to see the opener so you can’t move their game to a later date. At same time run risk of this happening.

[Chi_archie]

Kid hits an RBI single to help his cause

forgot that he also can swing the bat as a pitcher, always a big plus in capping NL games for the time being...

[thetrinity]

pirates should be an under machine

underrated pitching staff with a worthless lineup

[Chi_archie]

pirates should be an under machine

underrated pitching staff with a worthless lineup

good point

they have shown zero Power as a collective lineup. Especially without Polanco for a few weeks

maybe Kang hits 25 for them.

Taillon, Williams, Archer, Musgrove all very under rated to their various levels

remember Archer was a former Cy young candidate and still very young.

[Chi_archie]

Williams 6 innings 3 hits 1 walk ZERO runs and 6 K's


mark your calendars for every 5th day from here on out and try to capitalize on being ahead of the market while it lasts.

This guy is a bulldog

[RudyRuetigger]

good call Archibald

forgot to bet that today

[Mr KLC]

[Chi_archie]

Trevor Williams Day tommorow Sat 4-6

slight home fave -117 full game at 5 dimes

-120 first five at pinny



the way the starters have been as a collective i'm starting to need to go watch pitch by pitch's and see if Ray Searage has made some tweaks or that the group will regress to mean as a whole and what that means for my near auto tails, Taillion and Williams

[HilltopTony]

Williams is the ace of the staff. This guy is a throwback pitcher and if the Pirates Management don't hold him back, he could be the best pitcher in MLB!

Anytime I get -140 or less, it's an automatic play!

[KVB]

Fading here, The Contrarian Fund has picked up Cincy +110.

[downtown2222]

I agree with Williams being underrated...BUT pirates lineup today looks like trash. Possible 4 dead spots in that lineup today....

[Chi_archie]

Pirates 2-0 with Williams starting thus far


+174 today?

are you kidding?

[Mike Huntertz]

Pirates 2-0 with Williams starting thus far


+174 today?

are you kidding?

Good time to fade.

[jjgold]

Archie you still that have a 94 Ford??

[greypimps]

not under rated..dude is trash..gave up a lot of hits and scores...

[2daBank]

Good time to fade.

Not with that price. It be a good time to fade when he starts getting more respect.

[Chi_archie]

not under rated..dude is trash..gave up a lot of hits and scores...

Oh?

I didn't realize

How many scores?

[2daBank]

not under rated..dude is trash..gave up a lot of hits and scores...

Lol. Far from trash, he could use another pitch but guy is incredibly effective.

[Mr KLC]

Only 2 players in the Pirates starting lineup can hit over .235 on sliders, which is Corbin's main pitch. Also, Pirates were up late with rain delay last night, and then lost another hour flying to Washington. Nationals were off yesterday.

[2daBank]

Only 2 players in the Pirates starting lineup can hit over .235 on sliders, which is Corbin's main pitch. Also, Pirates were up late with rain delay last night, and then lost another hour flying to Washington. Nationals were off yesterday.

Yea but way too pricey. Simple solution to Corbin’s slider, don’t swing at it, he doesn’t throw it for strikes all that often.

[Mr KLC]

If we were doing a survivor contest, this would be my #1 pick today.

[Chi_archie]

If we were doing a survivor contest, this would be my #1 pick today.

my bankroll is not a survivor contest. That would be complete wrong strategy for me to employ in my capping.

that is the exact wrong way to approach a sport with the largest number of games and the smallest edges.

you grind for small edges and you try to have patience that over the long haul the edges will out weigh the variance.

to be honest i've not seen a case of the market being this inefficient on a starting pitcher with such sustained run of very goodness

i'll take big plus $ on coin flips blindly for as long as they'll give it to me, or until I see something change with Williams

[2daBank]

my bankroll is not a survivor contest

that is the exact wrong way to approach a sport with the largest number of games and the smallest edges.

you grind for small edges and you try to have patience that over the long haul the edges will out weigh the variance.

to be honest i've not seen a case of the market being this inefficient on a starting pitcher with such sustained run of very goodness

i'll take big plus $ on coin flips blindly for as long as they'll give it to me, or until I see something change with Williams

Spoken like a guy who understands how to win at this sport!!

[thetrinity]

pittsburgh has to be the only place where you cant watch a baseball game because playoff hockey is on! how does attsportsnet not have an alternate