Question for LTprofits & other model-based cappers

[eaglesfan371]

How do you pull the necessary stats and data every night from major sports?

Especially you LT, you bet at least 4 main sports and seem profitable, how do you gather all the necessary inputs while also managing a marriage?

Are you using coding or a macro to pull the data automatically? If so, what process / sites are you using to do so?

Starting to learn basic code and intrigued to know how you guys are spitting out simulations and scores to find +EV lines along with being efficient.

[Waterstpub87]

How do you pull the necessary stats and data every night from major sports?

Especially you LT, you bet at least 4 main sports and seem profitable, how do you gather all the necessary inputs while also managing a marriage?

Are you using coding or a macro to pull the data automatically? If so, what process / sites are you using to do so?

Starting to learn basic code and intrigued to know how you guys are spitting out simulations and scores to find +EV lines along with being efficient.

I run models on NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, NCAAF, NCAAB, Japanese and Korean baseball.

Data sources:
NFL: scrapped play by play data from fox sports, using VBA, pro football focus

NCAAF: same as NFl, scrapped from fox sports

NBA: NBA.com has a pretty serious amount of statistics, the format makes is hard to automatically scrape so it is a copy paste

MLB: fangraphs.com. copy paste as well due to format

JpY and Kor BB: baseballreference.com

NCAAB: college basketball reference, scrapped using vba

PGA: PGA.com

If you look in the handicapper think tank, I put example code for scrapping play by play data for NCAA football I think

[danshan11]

modeling is a thing of the past, it really is. look at prediction tracker there are some very reliable sources to model a line. there is no need to pull data except for Individual player data for injuries.

you can model a line in 2 seconds just use SaG or Ken
the only thing that counts today is the adjustments. I would argue it is just not necessary to model individual games like it was 5-10 years ago.

Knicks 82.5
Pacers 91.5
that is 9 add 2.5 or 3 for HC
gives you 11.5 to 12
you dont need a model to do that, you can do that with Sag, now the trick is adjusting for injury

Twolves 90
Nuggets 92
Nuggets Home worth say 3 to 3.5
gives you Nuggets by 5 to 5.5
so why is it 9 or 9.5? Towns and Wiggins
Wiggins is worth -1 and Towns is worth 3.5
add 4.5 to Wolves and magic you got 9.5 to 10 and I have no adjustment for rest, I only use played yesterday as a criteria for rest, most
use a 3 in 4 or something like that, I believe the line only accounts for yesterday on rest, personal opinion

see no computer or model there except my algo for player ratings

you dont need a model, you need player data and adjustments accordingly

[jjgold]

Dansher with excellent post

[eaglesfan371]

modeling is a thing of the past, it really is. look at prediction tracker there are some very reliable sources to model a line. there is no need to pull data except for Individual player data for injuries.

you can model a line in 2 seconds just use SaG or Ken
the only thing that counts today is the adjustments. I would argue it is just not necessary to model individual games like it was 5-10 years ago.

Knicks 82.5
Pacers 91.5
that is 9 add 2.5 or 3 for HC
gives you 11.5 to 12
you dont need a model to do that, you can do that with Sag, now the trick is adjusting for injury

Twolves 90
Nuggets 92
Nuggets Home worth say 3 to 3.5
gives you Nuggets by 5 to 5.5
so why is it 9 or 9.5? Towns and Wiggins
Wiggins is worth -1 and Towns is worth 3.5
add 4.5 to Wolves and magic you got 9.5 to 10 and I have no adjustment for rest, I only use played yesterday as a criteria for rest, most
use a 3 in 4 or something like that, I believe the line only accounts for yesterday on rest, personal opinion

see no computer or model there except my algo for player ratings

you dont need a model, you need player data and adjustments accordingly

Consider I have no experience with either, can you provide me links to these "ken" and "sag" I'm guessing ken is kenpom but no idea on sag and no idea how to find these scores you came up with.

[danshan11]

adjust for players injuries , rest and weather, no need to adjust for anything else

[danshan11]

kenpom.com and sagarin.com

[danshan11]

if you want to learn a thing or two on what happened yesterday means, dont listen to me or anyone figure it out yourself

May 20, 2018	recap	Sun	2017	Warriors	Rockets	home	126-85	3&3	-8.0	226.0	41	33.0	-15.0	9.0	-24.0	W	W	U	0
May 22, 2018	recap	Tue	2017	Warriors	Rockets	home	92-95	1&1	-8.0	224.5	-3	-11.0	-37.5	-24.2	-13.2	L	L	U	0

8 points favored beat them by 40 and played again the next day and guess what the line was still -8

[danshan11]

the truth is most modelers are still modeling cause it works, but reality is they probably dont need to do the game part and could put more energy on the adjustments. I know they will call me an idiot and say I am clueless and those are facts too but, I stated this is my opinion and I think my explanation above confirms it as accurate.

if you want eagles me and you can do tomorrow NBA games right now before the lines come out on BOL and you will see its like magic!

our job as cappers is not to cap a better line than the closing which is damn near impossible but to cap as close to closing as we can.

if celtics close -9
we want our model to show celtics -9
we dont want our model saying celtics -5 (this would imply to me the model is not good)
if we can predict accurately the closing line, we can take advantage of more opportunities against the line.

we cant predict games but we surely can predict the closing line and doing that and seeing betting opportunities there will make us money!

if celtics are now -6.5 and you know it will close at -9, you know bet it bet it bet it and magic at the end of the night closes at -8
you got 1.5 pts free, if you could get 1 pt free every bet in the NBA you will make a ton of money IF AND ONLY IF you can do it enough times to overcome variance!

[danshan11]

I hope some smart guys like water, lt and others chime in, I really would appreciate their opinions on this. I am sure most kinda are less wordy than me, they got trade secrets and they want to keep them secret but whatever they can discuss would be cool!

[eaglesfan371]

I will look into this more a bit later but thank you for the info, much appreciated

Looking at the predictor for nhl Kenpom right now

The sport I’ve done well past 3 seasons has been NHL. Profitable past 3 seasons but I’d like to be able to provide modeling or reasoning besides just my belief, which has worked thus far though.

Done well in NFL but obviously limited # of plays to conclude +EV rather than just variance. Definitely -EV historically in anything basketball so I’ve avoided basketball bets past few months.

[eaglesfan371]

I hope some smart guys like water, lt and others chime in, I really would appreciate their opinions on this. I am sure most kinda are less wordy than me, they got trade secrets and they want to keep them secret but whatever they can discuss would be cool!

I get what you’re saying about NBA but I just think it’s by far the hardest sport to cap. I also dislike the sport as basically all that matters is 4th quarter. Seems like 30-40% of the time a team is down double digits in 4th, they come back. That should not happen but it does.

I know the above has nothing to do with spread and long term variance but from an enjoyment and edge perspective I think there are better sports/leagues to cap.

[danshan11]

I do the exact same thing for all major sports, there is no difference in the sport and the reason the 4th qtr seems to matter in the nba is that the number of possessions in most cases in an NBA game is enough to overcome variance and it all evens out close to the end. compared to hockey where they get 20 or 30 shots on goal, chances are its harder to overcome variance in 30 shots compared to the huge number in the nba.

[danshan11]

I will look into this more a bit later but thank you for the info, much appreciated

Looking at the predictor for nhl Kenpom right now

The sport I’ve done well past 3 seasons has been NHL. Profitable past 3 seasons but I’d like to be able to provide modeling or reasoning besides just my belief, which has worked thus far though.

Done well in NFL but obviously limited # of plays to conclude +EV rather than just variance. Definitely -EV historically in anything basketball so I’ve avoided basketball bets past few months.

I love capping the NHL and can kill it except for one major thing the last minute 30-50 cent goalie changes, that shit will kill any value you can find. I had a hard time overcoming those goalie changes.

[danshan11]

I will look into this more a bit later but thank you for the info, much appreciated

Looking at the predictor for nhl Kenpom right now

The sport I’ve done well past 3 seasons has been NHL. Profitable past 3 seasons but I’d like to be able to provide modeling or reasoning besides just my belief, which has worked thus far though.

Done well in NFL but obviously limited # of plays to conclude +EV rather than just variance. Definitely -EV historically in anything basketball so I’ve avoided basketball bets past few months.

how do you know you are negative ev?

[eaglesfan371]

My ATS spread rate in basketball especially CBB has to be below 47%.

I remember countless times year after year running up a huge balance during NFL playoffs, seems to be my strongest time, withdrawing them loss after loss in February / March betting CBB and March madness.

I haven’t kept track of my results in CBB but I can definitely say for certainty my win % is well below 50%. I stopped betting CBB after December and I’ve made a lot sticking with just NHL as per usual.

My CBB flaw is definitely misvaluing home advantage. Always would be on slight away dogs or favs and they get crushed.

I stick to main small dogs or small favs, in NHL majority of my bets are -115 to +160. Never much more either way.

[eaglesfan371]

As for NHL my valuable site is the confirmed goalies page that updates everyday for NHL. I don’t place bets until I see which goalies are confirmed. My plays are often based on goalie mismatch when it’s a matchup of close odds.

[eaglesfan371]

For example, I watched Jordan Binnington of St Louis Blues play several games and noticed his talent. After 5-7 games he still had sub 1.6 GAA. With lines still having STL as dogs, I hammered their ML during their incredible run until books finally started making them favs when he played.

There’s a huge difference between a goalie with 90% save and 0.93% even if their GAA is similar.

Over/under are often over juiced towards the over in NHL as well. Very rarely is the public on the under except for obvious teams like Dallas & NYI in which case the juice is too much. I’d had a lot of success betting under 6 or 6.5 when -115 or less juice for certain matchups.

[jjgold]

LT model not for sale

[danshan11]

For example, I watched Jordan Binnington of St Louis Blues play several games and noticed his talent. After 5-7 games he still had sub 1.6 GAA. With lines still having STL as dogs, I hammered their ML during their incredible run until books finally started making them favs when he played.

There’s a huge difference between a goalie with 90% save and 0.93% even if their GAA is similar.

Over/under are often over juiced towards the over in NHL as well. Very rarely is the public on the under except for obvious teams like Dallas & NYI in which case the juice is too much. I’d had a lot of success betting under 6 or 6.5 when -115 or less juice for certain matchups.

the problem is waiting until they are confirmed "confirmed" is really late and there is no line value left at this point.

BLues -120 open move to -140 now goalie is confirmed and they move to -145 as expected goalie now starts and they close -144, there is no value from -140 to -144 that is a -EV bet. we need to get in when limits rise somewhere near -120-130 range,

[Barrakuda]

If you're using kenpom or sagarin, you're doing it wrong. Danshan -- do you have any public evidence you have a long-term edge?

[Sam Odom]

LT model not for sale

[jjgold]

everything factored into the line

thread over

[SlickFazzer]

stick to better options like real estate, buying and selling classic cars etc.

[jjgold]

LT was offered 125,000 and refused

Models must mean something to some

[danshan11]

If you're using kenpom or sagarin, you're doing it wrong. Danshan -- do you have any public evidence you have a long-term edge?

explain how I am doing it wrong, dont just call it wrong say why?
I have never kept an online record I have maybe a 100 games here that prove I have a edge and I kept a season of WNBA on BT that proved I have an edge. I know I have an edge. but more importantly than my record is why I am wrong?

[danshan11]

LT was offered 125,000 and refused

Models must mean something to some

I have a watch my grandpa gave me its worth 100 bucks maybe, i would not sell it for anything I think never been offered real big numbers but I think you get the point. WHy would he not sell his model, he just opens a new spreadsheet and he still has it. LT will tell you a model is super important but more important is the adjustments and decisions he makes from the data and how the market matures. A model is not everything. I said it in my first thread that all modelers will call me stupid and say I am wrong because their model works. you cant argue with it works.

[danshan11]

think of a model as like the base, can your base get closer to the actual results of games than the opening or midweek line by itself without human adjustments for injuries weather and rest? If it can great you are rich if not I bet you do make adjustments to it for injuries weather, long travel, streaks and more stuff, everyone does it a little different

I count for injuries and no rest only, i do not adjust for long travel or 3in4 or any of that. I work 80% of my time on player algos over team algos. I do still model nba cause it works but I DONT THINK it is necessary. you can do exactly what i did above with any game and get a good line that is going to be better than a base model. again the key is in the adjustments not the base!

[danshan11]

and I hate that you are "just wrong" crap. if you think I look like a duck dont just call me a duck tell me what looks like a duck on me!

[danshan11]

stick to better options like real estate, buying and selling classic cars etc.

in reality if you dont have a huge bankroll and tons of advanced math skills and can ride the variance elevator without folding up, its better to do anything else. most PRO bettors make 1-2% of rollover.

[Chi_archie]

i'd like to hear Danshan's thoughts on this

[danshan11]

i'd like to hear Danshan's thoughts on this

hear my thoughts on what?

[pavyracer]

Modelling is just a waste of time. How do you model players sitting to rest? You can't.

[danshan11]

of course you can, a player out for injury or rest is the same thing

[tsty]

LT was offered 125,000 and refused

Models must mean something to some

lol no penetrating way

you would be retarded not to sell