Which is better, bonus or no bonus situation

[eaglesfan371]

Book offering 10% cash bonus, 5x
NHL odds -108/-107 (15 cent)

Other book offering no cash bonus
NHL odds -105/-105 (10 cent)

Assume both balances will go through 5x rollover.

[Hman]

All depends what type of better you are and your plans.

Are you wanting to hit & run or are you in it for the Long haul by playing the entire season of a particular sport.

[eaglesfan371]

All depends what type of better you are and your plans.

Are you wanting to hit & run or are you in it for the Long haul by playing the entire season of a particular sport.

Assume economics theory here, moment rollover is complete, player will go to the lowest price so I would withdraw my balance immediately after 5x.

[eaglesfan371]

Assuming I’m doing the calc right would it simply just be 5x / odds...

For example 1000 deposit + bonus = 5500 rollover (11 x 5).

5500 / 1.075 = $5116
5500 / 1.050 = $5238

$5238 - $5116 = $122 which is more than $100 cash bonus.

Is that analysis correct?

[BuckyOne]

Well no - you only pay the juice when the bet loses. The juice is not always going to be precisely 105 or 108 for that matter. Compare prices with the two books and determine if the juice is ever the same on an event. Maybe, they would both be 115 on something.

How about putting a dime in each play and playing the bet at the place with the least juice or if they are even do the one with the rollover?

[Crusherrr]

The correct answer would be the one with 10% bonus but only depositing 1 unit. Lose, re-deposit and take 10% again.

[danshan11]

this is a really good thread, I think the math answer could be interesting

[RudyRuetigger]

this is a really good thread, I think the math answer could be interesting

why not take a stab?

this is 8th grade math so basically right in your wheelhouse

[Cuse0323]

I’d be failing 8th grade math. Think I did that already.

[danshan11]

useless post 34162, I really would if I knew the math but I do not know the math on this one, if someone does please chime in!

[Sawyer]

Pick bonus. Bet one side in that book and other side in other book. Get bonus in other bookie as well. Make profit regardless of result. Repeat.

[Stallion]

Sawyer is right.

[jjgold]

lower juice long term

[ridgeway]

Pick bonus. Bet one side in that book and other side in other book. Get bonus in other bookie as well. Make profit regardless of result. Repeat.

^^^^^^^^^^^ This.

[Brutus84]

Just take bonus. You’re going to lose it all anyways but at least you’ll be able to have more to lose.

[eaglesfan371]

Just take bonus. You’re going to lose it all anyways but at least you’ll be able to have more to lose.

You posted this comment right as I won two more posted bets...if you review all my posted plays since joining SBR...average bet of $400...up over $5k...thank you though for the advice

Edit: Sorry, that was a bit cocky. Just on an insane run, up over $10k since beginning of year, no insanely large bets, just consistency and feeling on top of world. Moved a lot of it to a couple index funds and appreciate the stats I've been incorporating. I stopped betting basketball entirely, my biggest losing sport, almost as bad as Morino in CBB, been killing it in NHL and tennis like I usually do. Its an amazing feeling when your capping and models are hitting right.

[thomorino]

You posted this comment right as I won two more posted bets...if you review all my posted plays since joining SBR...average bet of $400...up over $5k...thank you though for the advice

Edit: Sorry, that was a bit cocky. Just on an insane run, up over $10k since beginning of year, no insanely large bets, just consistency and feeling on top of world. Moved a lot of it to a couple index funds and appreciate the stats I've been incorporating. I stopped betting basketball entirely, my biggest losing sport, almost as bad as Morino in CBB, been killing it in NHL and tennis like I usually do. Its an amazing feeling when your capping and models are hitting right.

Fuk off

[pimike]

Fuk off

You English language seems to be about 2nd grade. Is this the only 2 words you learned?

[eaglesfan371]

Fuk off

Wasn't attacking you dude, you've done horrible in CBB this season, that's the truth. You've done amazing in NBA, that's also the truth. I used to try and bet spots in NBA and CBB and always got crushed. Even though I love college basketball, especially since I graduated 2 years ago, I realize its major -EV for me so just focusing on the sports I've been good at. For example, would've gone large on Maryland CBB tonight, thought there was no way Maryland does not cover here. Did not bet it though, sticking to my rule and oh look, it lost, bad.

Just like I think you should stop betting CBB and instead just bet NBA as you've done well with that Morino.

[jtoler]

Pick bonus. Bet one side in that book and other side in other book. Get bonus in other bookie as well. Make profit regardless of result. Repeat.

wise words from an obvious arbitrageur

[eaglesfan371]

wise words from an obvious arbitrageur

I don't think you can apply the bet both sides with 10% bonus 5x rollover. The juice after 5x, assuming 2.5 losses, would not equal profit (I think my math is correct, please check below). The larger bonus books recently declined my action so not an option there.

15 cent juice
1/1.0375 = 0.9639

(5x / 2 = 2.5x edge applied if u bet both sides)

0.9639^2.5 = 0.912

100% + 10% cash bonus = 1.1

1.1 x 0.912 = $1.003 per $1 of starting balance.

Thus, 10% bonus, 5x rollover, is pretty much breakeven after 5x if you bet both sides. No point in doing that.


If 10 cent lines

1/1.025 = 0.9756
0.9756^2.5 = 0.94
1.1 x 0.94 = $1.034 per $1 starting balance. If 10 cent juice, possible small arb.

[Optional]

Assuming I’m doing the calc right would it simply just be 5x / odds...

For example 1000 deposit + bonus = 5500 rollover (11 x 5).

5500 / 1.075 = $5116
5500 / 1.050 = $5238

$5238 - $5116 = $122 which is more than $100 cash bonus.

Is that analysis correct?

I think that is correct, as in the simplest way to compare, if you are a flat unit bettor grinding it out.

[danwinkler]

Book offering 10% cash bonus, 5x
NHL odds -108/-107 (15 cent)

Other book offering no cash bonus
NHL odds -105/-105 (10 cent)

Assume both balances will go through 5x rollover.

If you are in it for the long term and if you are a long term winning bettor, book with better juice is always the best choice.

[lonegambler23]

only broke dik fuks need bonuses

[5mike5]

Never take bonuses

[nyplayer33]

5dimes the best, no bonuses.

[Big Bear]

Eagles?

[pologq]

better juice is better long term

[allabout the $$$]

Eagles?

Place is better without him

[jjgold]

better juice is better long term

yes wins every time

[pologq]

yes wins every time

i always thought bonuses were better when i first started and then you realize you can make a lot more money with lower juice than you can with a big bonus (and the rollover it forces you to go thru)

[mpaschal34]

Eagles still in training to take on Opti.

I believe he’s doing the Rocky IV thing and is somewhere in Siberia.

[RudyRuetigger]

why not take a stab?

this is 8th grade math so basically right in your wheelhouse

ole danshan banned. ofcourse



whats his new name?

[jjgold]

Heritage -105 you cannot beat that program

[Booya711]

Place is better without him

but just like cockroaches....one goes and four more pop up