Edge math help regarding horse racing favorite...

[cutchemist42]

I know I'm being dumb here but trying to figure out an edge for a possible bet. It involves the amount of times one is right about the favorite winning in horse racing.

The fave in horse racing wins about 35% of races. For this, assume the average odds across all favorites was 2.5ish. If you wanted to create a bet/lay system for when you have an opinion on if the favourite is legit or not, how often would you need to be right, whether deciding to bet or lay, to have an edge?

[danshan11]

the favorite wins about 35% overall but the $2.10 faves win a lot more and the $3.20 faves a lot less, so grouping it as the favorite wins 35% of the time will make it very difficult.

example
NFL favorites win 70% of the time but only 54% of the time as favorites <3 pts

[sweethook]

3rd fav. or the 6 horse . wins 1/3

[littlekona]

I know I'm being dumb here but trying to figure out an edge for a possible bet. It involves the amount of times one is right about the favorite winning in horse racing.

The fave in horse racing wins about 35% of races. For this, assume the average odds across all favorites was 2.5ish. If you wanted to create a bet/lay system for when you have an opinion on if the favourite is legit or not, how often would you need to be right, whether deciding to bet or lay, to have an edge?

The most profitable lay angle I have is laying ML Fav that are drifters... Say the ML is 8/5 and closes at 4-1 I take a good look at that one as a lay option....I have also found that the exchange favorites esp oods on like 3/5 or less are stronger favorites then tote 3/5 favs...exchanges seem much sharper on solid favorites

[littlekona]

I will also tell you that certain races and how the race card is put together can also tell you what Favorites are stronger...Example is NY and So. Cal races in the pic 6 esp the first race of the pick six are more difficult. They often card the heavy favorites in earlier races so they are not in the pick 6

[biggie12]

save your money

[eaglesfan371]

If a fav wins 35% of the time, you need minimum 2.86x payout. However, tracks take 15% so you’re likely to see 2.431, making it hard to overcome this large house edge.

TLDR I have never been to a horse track and think it’s a highly -EV proposition.

[LT Profits]

If a fav wins 35% of the time, you need minimum 2.86x payout. However, tracks take 15% so you’re likely to see 2.431, making it hard to overcome this large house edge.

TLDR I have never been to a horse track and think it’s a highly -EV proposition.

Not just that, but favorites if 2.86+ win a lot less than 35% of the time, the 35% lumps ALL favorites together, be it 1.10 or 3.50

[littlekona]

Not just that, but favorites if 2.86+ win a lot less than 35% of the time, the 35% lumps ALL favorites together, be it 1.10 or 3.50

It’s like anything..if you put in the study and follow you can gain an edge..the biggest edge is when pools have carryovers which can basically eliminate the take out...love playing pic 4 and 5s when carryovers exist....

[jjgold]

There is no edge in horseracing it’s why it’s a dying sport in the United States many tracks are on the verge of bankruptcy and if it wasn’t for casinos in the race tracks 70% would be gone

[danshan11]

OTB will never die but you dont need tracks everywhere for that

[littlekona]

There is no edge in horseracing it’s why it’s a dying sport in the United States many tracks are on the verge of bankruptcy and if it wasn’t for casinos in the race tracks 70% would be gone

I disagree, there is an edge esp in pari mutual pools where many bet blind, names, hunches ect....put in the time and follow like anything you gain edge...greyhound racing too.....

also consider that smart guys are getting nice daily rebates from offshore and at adw’s

[Snowball]

If you're going to bet horses you need to know horses, jockeys, stables and tracks.

It is a very specialized competition that you will never win at by just looking at odds and math.

[danshan11]

If you're going to bet horses you need to know horses, jockeys, stables and tracks.

It is a very specialized competition that you will never win at by just looking at odds and math.

come on snowball now you know that is not true! books win at horses all day and they dont know crapola about stables, horses and tracks! it is nothing but MATH!

[littlekona]

If you're going to bet horses you need to know horses, jockeys, stables and tracks.

It is a very specialized competition that you will never win at by just looking at odds and math.

And thus gives you an edge due to the fact many have no clue...I’d say 50% don’t even buy a form

[danshan11]

And thus gives you an edge due to the fact many have no clue...I’d say 50% don’t even buy a form

if you are talking para mutual sure, you can take advantage of grandma but if you are talking about betting with books, you need more than a racing program brother!

[BigJay]

You can’t get a mathematical edge in horse racing because the odds are adjusted approximately 20% in the track’s favor because of the percentage of pre-race handle they take out of each pool.

Just like anything else, best bet is either not to play or to take one shot on a play you really like and get out while ahead.

[trytrytry]

And thus gives you an edge due to the fact many have no clue...I’d say 50% don’t even buy a form

much more than 50% of the money in the pool is from people who have or claim to have some info or edge or form or whatever.

yes there are many $2 play the names, play the numbers, look at that odds daily players with no real info (fav jockeys etc),. but the computer people, overlay bots, workout persons, form and fig guys put in most of the real money in the pools, that makes it a hard hard hard game to eeeek out any profit. only can be done parimutual with patience and a rebate per wager at ADWs. maybe become an amazing handicapper with info and figs and perhaps instead of losing 18% -25% takeout par, lose say 5% long term but with a 10% rebate you do ok, something like that. have lots of volume to make the 5% a reasonable amount. unless your cheating somehow with inside info or fixing but hard to know about that.

[littlekona]

much more than 50% of the money in the pool is from people who have or claim to have some info or edge or form or whatever.

yes there are many $2 play the names, play the numbers, look at that odds daily players with no real info (fav jockeys etc),. but the computer people, overlay bots, workout persons, form and fig guys put in most of the real money in the pools, that makes it a hard hard hard game to eeeek out any profit. only can be done parimutual with patience and a rebate per wager at ADWs. maybe become an amazing handicapper with info and figs and perhaps instead of losing 18% -25% takeout par, lose say 5% long term but with a 10% rebate you do ok, something like that. have lots of volume to make the 5% a reasonable amount. unless your cheating somehow with inside info or fixing but hard to know about that.

Rebates are a savior...so many days Il take 500 bet high volume aLL day nite lose all and then have 400 rebate pop up In account next day..sweet

[littlekona]

favorite swept all 8 races Thursday at Santa Anita. The winners paid $3.80, $4.00, $4.60, $4.40, $4.40, $3.80, $4.60 and $4.20.

SO.CAL LOTS MORE CHALK WINNING THEN ANYWHERE

[biggie12]

littlekona you have a bit of knowledge..... you are 100% wrong when it comes to horse racing stay away. you think you know about takeouts and rebates but you will get burried.

[big joe 1212]

You can’t beat the ponies without inside info

[biggie12]

You can’t beat the ponies without inside info

its hard to win with it also. unless u get a ton and ton of money down on one race and never look back

ive had morning walkers, trainers, vets, owners, etx cost me thousands

[Foxx]

It's beatable with exchange wagering. Also beatable parimutuelly with high rebates.

[ThaWoj]

its hard to win with it also. unless u get a ton and ton of money down on one race and never look back

ive had morning walkers, trainers, vets, owners, etx cost me thousands

This. I had countless false info from sources at Balmoral and maywood park (RIP to both).
The only info id get that was correct on a regular basis would be if a horse was lame.

One night at the otb in illinois a state trooper who pulled over either Michael Oosting or Anthony Morgan (can't remember which) for a suspected DUI, let him off the hook in exchange for a guaranteed winner the following night at Hoosier park (might have been Indiana downs, not sure)...a mutual friend of mine and my buddy and the trooper was at the otb and gave us the horse. It was 18-1 and won by 5 lengths. I think Jason Dillander rode the winner. Me and my buddy each had 20 on it (we were young, broke, and used to 'tips' not coming through..otherwise we would have unloaded..probably killing our own mutual lol). This was maybe 10 years ago.

Horse racing without a doubt is fixed except for the big, big races. Harness racing is so easy to fix. At the very least there is a lot of stable info that the general public has absolutely no clue

I've been watching and playing the ponies since i was 16. I've heard and seen it all. Battery whips, needles, syringes, the 'whip and jerk' etc etc

I play for fun, mostly looking for the big score playing pick 4s and pick 5s buying out races and dumping to win on steamed morning line favorites and steam in the will pay doubles and pick 3s

[littlekona]

This. I had countless false info from sources at Balmoral and maywood park (RIP to both).
The only info id get that was correct on a regular basis would be if a horse was lame.

One night at the otb in illinois a state trooper who pulled over either Michael Oosting or Anthony Morgan (can't remember which) for a suspected DUI, let him off the hook in exchange for a guaranteed winner the following night at Hoosier park (might have been Indiana downs, not sure)...a mutual friend of mine and my buddy and the trooper was at the otb and gave us the horse. It was 18-1 and won by 5 lengths. I think Jason Dillander rode the winner. Me and my buddy each had 20 on it (we were young, broke, and used to 'tips' not coming through..otherwise we would have unloaded..probably killing our own mutual lol). This was maybe 10 years ago.

Horse racing without a doubt is fixed except for the big, big races. Harness racing is so easy to fix. At the very least there is a lot of stable info that the general public has absolutely no clue

I've been watching and playing the ponies since i was 16. I've heard and seen it all. Battery whips, needles, syringes, the 'whip and jerk' etc etc

I play for fun, mostly looking for the big score playing pick 4s and pick 5s buying out races and dumping to win on steamed morning line favorites and steam in the will pay doubles and pick 3s

I’m illinois too and grew up watching boom boom Ronnie marsh, busse, paisley and my fav Darrel Jacobs...used to love the old 5/8 track at sportsman park....fixes a plenty back then....I used to work with old man Stanley banks daughter Back then and he would give me his live horses at times...fun times back then....now one thing I’ll say is that the biggest scum of earth is Ooosting, drunk wife beater rap sheet longer then this post

[biggie12]

It's beatable with exchange wagering. Also beatable parimutuelly with high rebates.

proove me wrong lets see uve won over a season. impossible unless you get lucky and win a big pool. There is no skill in that though

[Easy-Rider 66]

It's beatable with exchange wagering. Also beatable parimutuelly with high rebates.

Maybe by the few and proud. For most not realistic.

[Louisvillekid1]

Lol good luck man ...

I love horse racing , nothing more exciting to wager on...

Handicapping is truly an art form , extremely difficult

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lol good luck man ...

I love horse racing , nothing more exciting to wager on...

Handicapping is truly an art form , extremely difficult

Hey Kid: do you incorporate replays into your capping?

[Louisvillekid1]

Hey Kid: do you incorporate replays into your capping?

Sure on big race days

ncaabb season I’m totally occupied with that

Saratoga is my best work, cuz I watch & review everyday

[Easy-Rider 66]

Sure on big race days

ncaabb season I’m totally occupied with that

Saratoga is my best work, cuz I watch & review everyday

OK Kid. Yeah the SPA is your wheelhouse. I do not watch many replays. Think the heavy hitters/sharks do more so than the small players like me. Anyway SAR starts one week earlier this year. NO Monday racing though.

[biggie12]

there are no heavy hitters or sharks at least at woodbine there sint. just guys with more money betting bigger doesnt mean they have any clue.

[ThaWoj]

I’m illinois too and grew up watching boom boom Ronnie marsh, busse, paisley and my fav Darrel Jacobs...used to love the old 5/8 track at sportsman park....fixes a plenty back then....I used to work with old man Stanley banks daughter Back then and he would give me his live horses at times...fun times back then....now one thing I’ll say is that the biggest scum of earth is Ooosting, drunk wife beater rap sheet longer then this post

Dam you're going way back. Me and my buddy met Del Chupps lady friend one time and she told us 'Delbert's 2 horse looks pretty good here' lol yeah he was like 4-5 in the race and won easy, not sure how much of a 'tip' that was. But yeah if you remember joe Anderson had that superstar Big Tom and then he got suspended for drugging. Me and my buddy used to call it 'joe juice'. Then that prick Eric ledford got caught out east. Brent Holland probably had something to do with the shit his buddy Paul Blumenfeld was doing. Not sure how both of them are still active at Yonkers.

I'm sure you followed Northfield in Ohio, never forget the legend Walter Case used to win everything and then got caught with the battery whip and then arrested for stabbing his wife...crazy mofo. Dave Maxwell blew his brains out if u remember that too.

A lot of bad karma and shady ppl in the racing industry.

[biggie12]

Dam you're going way back. Me and my buddy met Del Chupps lady friend one time and she told us 'Delbert's 2 horse looks pretty good here' lol yeah he was like 4-5 in the race and won easy, not sure how much of a 'tip' that was. But yeah if you remember joe Anderson had that superstar Big Tom and then he got suspended for drugging. Me and my buddy used to call it 'joe juice'. Then that prick Eric ledford got caught out east. Brent Holland probably had something to do with the shit his buddy Paul Blumenfeld was doing. Not sure how both of them are still active at Yonkers.

I'm sure you followed Northfield in Ohio, never forget the legend Walter Case used to win everything and then got caught with the battery whip and then arrested for stabbing his wife...crazy mofo. Dave Maxwell blew his brains out if u remember that too.

A lot of bad karma and shady ppl in the racing industry.

still infested with them but not as bad .. just not as much money in it anymore