Important advice for all NFL playoff future bettors...

[The Giant]

If you're itching to get down a future bet on the Super Bowl this morning...do not do it.

I don't care what the team is, you're not going to be getting any value out of it.

Instead, do the following: If you planned on putting, for example, $100 on a long-shot, you're much better off rolling that money over each week. Just bet them on the ML, and if it wins, continue to roll it over. The money you'll make will far exceed any odds you're currently given.

Believe it or not, the New Orleans Saints at +260 might be the only thing currently worth its value. After putting in some hypothetical prices, assuming they're going to be favored heavily throughout, they might still be worth a shot. Will investigate further.

Anyway, back to my original point: if you're taking a long-shot, just roll them over weekly. The money at the end will be much greater.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

G, like I said...you're really on top of your game. Study further + report back.

In general, I agree w/ what you're saying. The theory behind it would be that any Futures market is too juiced up. If you sum up the probabilities (1/xx), I think you're easily looking at a 140% pool. Maybe 120% pool, if you isolate best price for each team.

You're saying that a Moneyline parlay (3x or 4x) normally pays out more. In most cases, I think you're right. In the case of the Saints, let's say they DO go the distance vs the top possible seeds. Dallas/Ram/Chiefs. Would that pay more than +260? A 3-team Moneyline Fav parlay often pays more than people think.

[jjgold]

This post by Giants shows why he drives Cadillac and we drive old Fords

[The Giant]

G, like I said...you're really on top of your game. Study further + report back.

In general, I agree w/ what you're saying. The theory behind it would be that any Futures market is too juiced up. If you sum up the probabilities (1/xx), I think you're easily looking at a 140% pool. Maybe 120% pool, if you isolate best price for each team.

You're saying that a Moneyline parlay (3x or 4x) normally pays out more. In most cases, I think you're right. In the case of the Saints, let's say they DO go the distance vs the top possible seeds. Dallas/Ram/Chiefs. Would that pay more than +260? A 3-team Moneyline Fav parlay often pays more than people think.

I believe there is value in New Orleans, which is strange considering they're the biggest favorite on the board.

In the first game, they could play anyone from Philadelphia, Seattle, to Dallas. Hard to know, but they're going to be a solid favorite. Difficult to gauge exactly, but I would say somewhere around -340, maybe? Worst case scenario is they play the Rams in week two. Let's say they are only -200 against them. Does that sound right? Let's go with it. If they make the Super Bowl, they'll be favored no matter what. Let's say it's Kansas City, and we'll make New Orleans a -170 favorite.

Keep in mind, a lot of these numbers could be even higher.

Anyway, -340, -200 and -170 comes out to +208.

I think we have a little bit of value here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Makes sense, G. And if the AFC rep is a real outsider (like Balt)...then that Saints parlay would be short of +200.

[The Giant]

Clear out your inbox, Chucky.

[TheMoneyShot]

This post by Giants shows why he drives Cadillac and we drive old Fords

Giant... I want to drive Cadillacs.... I'm sick of driving Ford Fiesta's

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Clear out your inbox, Chucky.

OK, G. Wish they would give us more msg allowance.

[RudyRuetigger]

giant are you basically copying my advice and making it your own??

[pavyracer]

The only downside is a huge injury. For example, you take Colts +3000 today and they win but Pat Mahomes somehow falls in the shower and doesn't play next week then you won't get +300 ML for Colts but maybe +170 and then the week after Tom Brady hurts his shoulder on a held sneeze then Colts could be favored and all the value of +3000 is gone.

[KingKolzig]

Rams +550 has value

[rm18]

I always do this only time it worked was the Giants 7 years ago.

[Seaweed]

Thanks for passing the message from me Giant

[beefcake]

Well I have a future with a SHIT TOn of value from NOV

11/22/18 11:12am

$2.00

$2,850.00

Pending

11/22/18 12:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl LIII Matchup - Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks +142500

[lakerboy]

Rams +550 has value

Exactly.

[gauchojake]

The Giant do you listen to 710 ESPN?????

[goduke]

Most people balk at the end when they do that. The theory you have is true, its better value but towards the end of the roll its most peoples humans nature to start to question the bet, especially if its an amount of money that is large to them

[BigdaddyQH]

An interesting study, but your numbers are way off.

[ZIPPER HEAD]

An interesting study, but your numbers are way off.

Go smoke a pole you chubby chaser

[Harry N. Lloyd]

That's very logical, Giant! Thanks for the input.

As astute gambling tutorial.

However I am liking the $100 I put down on the Rams last March at 25:1.

[ans61201]

I think rams is off here. However been saying this for years. I do this each year in nba playoffs even works on massive favs in golden state. And much much easier to hedge in weekly scenario and not dead to major injury

[ans61201]

The only downside is a huge injury. For example, you take Colts +3000 today and they win but Pat Mahomes somehow falls in the shower and doesn't play next week then you won't get +300 ML for Colts but maybe +170 and then the week after Tom Brady hurts his shoulder on a held sneeze then Colts could be favored and all the value of +3000 is gone.

Yes but you’re not factoring in the opposite if luck goes down you have no shot

[pavyracer]

Yes but you’re not factoring in the opposite if luck goes down you have no shot

How does this change betting the future at +3000?

If that happens then your weekly carryover betting is toast too.

[semibluff]

I agree with the op's basic premise. If you can get, (near), the best prices about each outcome the overall juice on the Super Bowl winner is around 109% for the 12 outcomes. I double up as a bookie for the equivalent of betpoints on another forum and I posted odds to 111.12% taking an average of the biggest 10 prices offered by European books and then adjusting it slightly with US books. If you only take odds from 1 book you're looking at around 116%. Strictly by theoretical math if you can find books that reduce your money line juice on each match-up then at 103%, (rather than the 104.76% of a -110, -110 line on an even game) then the 3 game combination works out to 109.27% juice whilst a 4 playoff game route to Super Bowl success works out to 112.55%.

[gauchojake]

That's very logical, Giant! Thanks for the input.

As astute gambling tutorial.

However I am liking the $100 I put down on the Rams last March at 25:1.

wow great price! Where'd you get that at?

[The Giant]

Rams +550 has value

I don't see any value with the Rams at that number.

Well I have a future with a SHIT TOn of value from NOV

11/22/18 11:12am

$2.00

$2,850.00

Pending

11/22/18 12:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl LIII Matchup - Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks +142500

Nice job! You won't find a better number for them the rest of the playoffs. Or possibly ever.

The Giant do you listen to 710 ESPN?????

No, I'm more of a 570 guy, Jake. Why??

Most people balk at the end when they do that. The theory you have is true, its better value but towards the end of the roll its most peoples humans nature to start to question the bet, especially if its an amount of money that is large to them

You're right about that. There is a definite psychology at play when rolling over numbers. Certainly not as easy.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rams +550 has value

Kolzig, ignore the prospect of Rams winning for now. Pursuant to Giant's question...what do u think line would be Rams at Saints?

Recall that Rams were favored in 1st meeting. A lot has changed. Saints would be -3 or more in that matchup.

Also, Rams won't be huge fav if they play vs Bears. So, Bear/Saint/Chief route would clearly pay more on Moneyline parlay than Future.

[gauchojake]

No, I'm more of a 570 guy, Jake. Why??

Fezzik has been on the Mason and Ireland show all football season and his advice for futures was doing the same thing - rolling if bets. The timing of your advice was just funny.

[ans61201]

How does this change betting the future at +3000?

If that happens then your weekly carryover betting is toast too.

Lol you simply wouldn’t bet it the following week.

And before you say you hedge, hedging a future that’s not on the final game can set you up for rough middles.

So yes, there’s added value to betting each week besides just the odds. It’s why it’s not smart to bet warriors in season when you’ll get “better odds”


😳😳😳

[tsty]

Futures suck regardless of edge

Locking up money that long is retarded

[The Giant]

Fezzik has been on the Mason and Ireland show all football season and his advice for futures was doing the same thing - rolling if bets. The timing of your advice was just funny.

I've heard the name, but don't really know who Fezzik is. Is he somehow affiliated with RJ Bell? I listen to him on Cowherd, and I think I've heard him mention Fezzik before.

[bettingman6]

I bet on the Patriots +700 before the season began

I might take another bet on New Orleans winning the Super Bowl at +260.

[beefcake]

Well I have a future with a SHIT TOn of value from NOV

11/22/18 11:12am

$2.00

$2,850.00

Pending

11/22/18 12:30pm Football NFL Super Bowl LIII Matchup - Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks +142500

Come on Hawks!! Just give me one more win!!

[ThaWoj]

Saints would be less than -200 vs the Rams. I don't think 260 is good value. You're basically gambling the saints will play anyone else in the nfc championship game than the Rams but it simply won't happen. Saints will be -3 maybe -170 or so vs the Rams. I'd rather parlay the winnings from the eagles/Dallas/sea game SPREAD with the ml against the Rams and than the ml in the Superbowl.

[gauchojake]

I've heard the name, but don't really know who Fezzik is. Is he somehow affiliated with RJ Bell? I listen to him on Cowherd, and I think I've heard him mention Fezzik before.

some scam tout