Opinion on this fold? Seems standard to me

ChuckyTheGoat · 12-21-18, 08:13 AM

Sweep, listen to Daniel's comment at 5:30. He says he would have paid off a smaller bet.

I think Badz bet too much. Daniel has to pay off a bet of $20k. $60k = an overbet, which shows huge strength.

Props to Daniel for sniffing out the full-house. As for it being a standard fold, I don't think so. Higher-level fold, especially considering that he beats a Tx hand like AT.

SharpAngles · 12-21-18, 01:17 PM

Misplayed on every street by Daniel but the river fold is high level against a killer like Mikita. Very hard to give him credit for a set when he checks back the turn.

sourtwist · 12-21-18, 01:21 PM

I'm sure the million poker pros on 2+2 aren't impressed

RudyRuetigger · 12-21-18, 01:27 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Sweep, listen to Daniel's comment at 5:30. He says he would have paid off a smaller bet.

I think Badz bet too much. Daniel has to pay off a bet of $20k. $60k = an overbet, which shows huge strength.

Props to Daniel for sniffing out the full-house. As for it being a standard fold, I don't think so. Higher-level fold, especially considering that he beats a Tx hand like AT.

i dont think AT raises the flop.

Optional · 12-21-18, 01:51 PM

Daniel just got a read on the guy I think.

Plus the bet size was something to think about.

What would you have done in Mikita's spot after the river?

I could see me firing a "too large" bet there too.

Daniel isn't going to raise with the board paired there but will still call with just the top end of the straight most of the time. Got to try to get paid off well in that situation?

ChuckyTheGoat · 12-23-18, 06:33 AM

A few comments about this hand:

1) Badziakouski is not regarded as a TOP pro. Most view him as a straight-fwd player.

2) FLOP. Is Daneil's pot of 1/3-pot too small on a board this wet? I think it is. An overpair would bet 2/3-pot here, imho.

3) Daniel is a great hand-reader. When Badz raises, Daniel knows he caught a good piece of this flop. Listen to his river comments. Daniel has a good idea where he is. But his hand is too good to fold (yet).

4) TURN. Gin card for Daniel, but should he be checking here? By checking...he's implying that Badz is likely to continue + give Daniel a chance to check-raise. But the 9 screams SCARE CARD. I don't think it's developing as a bluffing hand. You have to make a hand now. I think you can make the case that Daniel should be leading out w/ a HEALTHY bet. Like 30k, which would have a Set calling at inappropriate odds (10 outs) or making a tough lay-down.

ChuckyTheGoat · 12-23-18, 06:39 AM

I think the Turn is going to check thru too often. Feel like u have to charge any Draw. And u might have him stuck, if he has 9T(suited).

5) RIVER. What does Daniel think of Badz? Go back to my 1st comment. I don't think Daniel views Badz as a tricky player. What hands check the Turn and then barrel River. Great read by Daniel. But I have to concede that mortals can't fold the Straight here, when there are no Flushes that got there.

As for Badz bet size, 60k is an overbet of 47k pot. Daniel concedes that he would have paid off a bet of something like 20k. What is proper bet-size that puts Daniel in jail? 30k would be close (imho). So, maybe 30k is the bet-size that Daniel would feel compelled to pay off. 40K+, he feels like he can fold.

thetrinity · 12-23-18, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Sweep, listen to Daniel's comment at 5:30. He says he would have paid off a smaller bet.

I think Badz bet too much. Daniel has to pay off a bet of $20k. $60k = an overbet, which shows huge strength.

Props to Daniel for sniffing out the full-house. As for it being a standard fold, I don't think so. Higher-level fold, especially considering that he beats a Tx hand like AT.

I really dont think he ever has a ten the way it plays out betting 60 into 47 on a paired board. He bet 35 it should have an easy call for daniel. Baz raising the flop with a10 seems highly unlikely.

thetrinity · 12-23-18, 07:55 AM

Baz really lets him off the hook on this hand IMO b/c all sets would shut it down on that turn and then he overbets the pot when the board pairs on the river. Dont know why the announcers were advocating a bet on the turn.

thetrinity · 12-23-18, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by SharpAngles

Misplayed on every street by Daniel but the river fold is high level against a killer like Mikita. Very hard to give him credit for a set when he checks back the turn.

why theres 4 to a straight on the board and negreanu could easily have what he has or just a ten

if he bets only better hands are staying

ChuckyTheGoat · 12-24-18, 05:41 AM

Originally posted by thetrinity

Baz really lets him off the hook on this hand IMO b/c all sets would shut it down on that turn and then he overbets the pot when the board pairs on the river. Dont know why the announcers were advocating a bet on the turn.

That's what I'm saying. Consider the Bet Ratio River/Turn. Going from 0 (check) to 60 (on 47pot) really gives away his hand strength.

Daniel smells Full House. And it's hard to see how he would not have a boat. 8x hand checks it down, imho.

thetrinity · 12-24-18, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

That's what I'm saying. Consider the Bet Ratio River/Turn. Going from 0 (check) to 60 (on 47pot) really gives away his hand strength.

Daniel smells Full House. And it's hard to see how he would not have a boat. 8x hand checks it down, imho.

Yeah I think negreanu calls right away if he bets 30-35k. Baz threw all straights out of his range with the massive overbet. By that time, negreanu could only beat a bluff.