Kyler Murray is New Heisman Trophy Favorite!

mdunlap3 · 12-05-18, 12:08 PM

Heard that 10% of the votes were already cast before last week. Maybe someone got a little look at something and placed a large wager as a result?

gojetsgomoxies · 12-05-18, 01:56 PM

not that i care that much........ but the award is most outstanding, not most valuable (didn't look up definition so my wording may be off. i think the idea is correct though)

gojetsgomoxies · 12-05-18, 02:00 PM

how can they allow votes before the conference championship games? either those games are supposed to count for heisman or they aren't.......... they should either void those ballots or make everyone vote before the championship games.

rm18 · 12-05-18, 02:10 PM

Also they should not vote before the season is over Army/Navy game is still yet to be played it is a joke that the game does not factor in. Keenan Reynolds was a legit Heisman candidate just a few years ago and his last game would not even be factored in unreal.

ans61201 · 12-05-18, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I read as much as I could and made up my mind. Tyler Murray it is.

Took Tyler -164 at BookMaker and Tyler -190 at Bovada. Come to think of it, I don't know why I even bothered taking Tyler at Bovada with the higher juice; that was rather stupid. My mistake to go to Bovada first and placing the bet there thinking they would have the similar odds instead of checking the odds at both books first.

Too much analyzing will lead me to the wrong decision. I needed to keep it simple and that's Tyler Murray is clearly the more valuable asset to OU than Tua to Alabama as what Jalen Hurts showed in the conference championship game. Without Tyler, OU is not in CFP. Without Tua, Alabama probably still makes CFP. Thus, the more valuable player is Tyler.

Completely disagree. I hear this a lot. Easiest way to answer this question:

What was oklahomas offense last year with a different guy? Nearly identical. Same as it is almost every year.

What was Alabama’s offense last year with a different guy? Average. What are they now? Historically good.

ans61201 · 12-05-18, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by mdunlap3

Heard that 10% of the votes were already cast before last week. Maybe someone got a little look at something and placed a large wager as a result?

Those would almost certainly be tua votes. Coming off a better year, and a 6 td performance off auburn, best player on best team.

Those 10% are only thing giving me hope that my tua bet is still alive.

Watch the odds if they shift anymore dramatically before Saturday that’s your answer. Tua becomes fav again, he will win. Murray goes to -300 he’s got it. This stuff leaks

rm18 · 12-05-18, 02:53 PM

Undertaker was -2500 and lost things dont always leak. Zeke was -1000 and lost.

DA_MOSS · 12-05-18, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by DJK

I read as much as I could and made up my mind. Tyler Murray it is.

Took Tyler -164 at BookMaker and Tyler -190 at Bovada. Come to think of it, I don't know why I even bothered taking Tyler at Bovada with the higher juice; that was rather stupid. My mistake to go to Bovada first and placing the bet there thinking they would have the similar odds instead of checking the odds at both books first.

Too much analyzing will lead me to the wrong decision. I needed to keep it simple and that's Tyler Murray is clearly the more valuable asset to OU than Tua to Alabama as what Jalen Hurts showed in the conference championship game. Without Tyler, OU is not in CFP. Without Tua, Alabama probably still makes CFP. Thus, the more valuable player is Tyler.

Who?

ans61201 · 12-05-18, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by rm18

Undertaker was -2500 and lost things dont always leak. Zeke was -1000 and lost.

Of course not. Or the favorite would win everytime. Things like this have a way of leaking. Nobody thought Baker was going number 1 then overnight, favorite.

ans61201 · 12-05-18, 03:36 PM

Worth pointing out:

Tua average pass defense ranked: 58th in Country

Murray: 85th defense average in county

Also, tua has better QBR and more tds in quarters 1-3 and of course Murray leads in 4th quarter where he played entire 4th in almost all of his games and tua missed more than half of 4th quarters due to blow outs

LT Profits · 12-05-18, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by ans61201

Murray: 85th defense average in county

Is that an all-time best for Big 12?

pavyracer · 12-05-18, 04:40 PM

Murray should be disqualified. His team has no defense so he has to generate a lot of offense all the time. Tuvailoa doesn't play as much on offense because Bama always plays with a big lead and his plays are more conservative.

DJK · 12-05-18, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by shocka1212

who is Tyler Murray?

Sorry, that was bad not getting people's name right. Kyler Murray.

DJK · 12-05-18, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by DA_MOSS

Who?

You know who. It was bad getting the spelling wrong though.

DJK · 12-05-18, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by ans61201

Worth pointing out:

Tua average pass defense ranked: 58th in Country

Murray: 85th defense average in county

Also, tua has better QBR and more tds in quarters 1-3 and of course Murray leads in 4th quarter where he played entire 4th in almost all of his games and tua missed more than half of 4th quarters due to blow outs

Those are arguments in favor of Tua and I've read plenty of them all over the internet, but do they really matter for Heisman when the most important game of the year he wasn't able to perform and a backup had to bail him out to win the game?

On the other hand, Kyler single handily won OU's game with his performance; running and passing. Case closed.

If the voters didn't see that and weren't moved to change their votes, then that's that and I lose my bets.

DJK · 12-05-18, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by ans61201

Those would almost certainly be tua votes. Coming off a better year, and a 6 td performance off auburn, best player on best team.

Those 10% are only thing giving me hope that my tua bet is still alive.

Watch the odds if they shift anymore dramatically before Saturday that’s your answer. Tua becomes fav again, he will win. Murray goes to -300 he’s got it. This stuff leaks

It's not a big shift but the odd did move towards Kyler on BookMaker as it's now at -188 when I got him at -164 last night. Bovada is still the same at -190 though.

DJK · 12-05-18, 05:16 PM

Below is from oddshark.

No matter what the current odds are, the Heisman winner is still a toss up IMO. I just like to think simple and go with it instead of analyzing how Tua played only 1-3 quarters and his stats could be better if he played the full games and he played against better defense, etc, etc.

The fact that Tua played lousy when it mattered the most is what I'm going by.

TAGOVAILOA’S STUMBLE IN THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME COULD BE COSTLY

Heisman Trophy voters like to see how players perform in big games to decide who wins the coveted award, and unfortunately for Tua Tagovailoa, he had his worst performance of the season in the SEC championship game. The sophomore QB completed just 40 percent of his passes for 164 yards with one touchdown and a career-high two interceptions before leaving the game with an ankle injury with 11 minutes remaining in the game. Jalen Hurts stepped in admirably, leading two touchdown drives for a 35-28 triumph.
Tagovailoa was the heavy favorite all season and rightfully so. He threw for the 14th-most passing yards (3,353), tied for the third-most touchdowns (37), threw just four interceptions and had the second-best quarterback rating (94.2). The Hawaii native put up all those numbers while only playing one complete game all year, against LSU. Outside of that game, he played only a handful of minutes in the fourth quarter all season. In my opinion, Tagovailoa deserves to win the Heisman Trophy, but not dominating in the SEC championship game may hurt his chances. This is the first time since Week 5 that he has been offered at plus-money and it’s still not a bad wager.

ans61201 · 12-05-18, 05:55 PM

Eh, we’ve also never seen tua lose, especially to an average team like Texas lol

LT Profits · 12-06-18, 02:52 PM

Murray announced as the AP Player of the Year, beating Tua by 56 votes!

advantageU · 12-06-18, 03:01 PM

-225 at sbr sportsbook

LT Profits · 12-06-18, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by advantageU

-225 at sbr sportsbook

Probably on heels of AP announcement

ans61201 · 12-06-18, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Murray announced as the AP Player of the Year, beating Tua by 56 votes!

Probably could find it pretty easily but does anyone know off the top of the head how often those two awards are the same

DJK · 12-06-18, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Murray announced as the AP Player of the Year, beating Tua by 56 votes!

That means Tua wins the Heisman.

ans61201 · 12-06-18, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by DJK

That means Tua wins the Heisman.

Probably not, unfortunately.

7 out of last 8 seasons the winner of this award won the heisman.

Slipknot26 · 12-06-18, 07:02 PM

Walter Camp Award winner - Tua Tagovailoa
No guarantee but last 5 Camp winners did what ? All won the Heisman

rm18 · 12-06-18, 07:29 PM

Deshaun won the Davey O'Brien but then blown out by Lamar for Heisman it is hard to know.

Slipknot26 · 12-06-18, 07:40 PM

Seen a stat earlier about snaps on offense
Haskins snaps -1009
Murray snaps - 807
Tua snaps - 588
That's a big ass difference and math obviously takes over stats if that's the case , no way Tua can match number to number with those differences .

Shafted69 · 12-06-18, 07:45 PM

Heisman jinx. Who the hell would want that piece of crap trophy and then end up losing in the national title game.

rm18 · 12-06-18, 08:03 PM

Ingram and Cam won though it took injury and cheating refs.

DJK · 12-06-18, 10:36 PM

BookMaker took off their odds on this future.

Bovada's Kyler odd went up from -190 to -205.

DJK · 12-09-18, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by Shafted69

Heisman jinx. Who the hell would want that piece of crap trophy and then end up losing in the national title game.

Yeah, I was planning on betting OU in the semis, but now that Kyler has won the Heisman, it just motivates Alabama so much more and I may have to lay off it.

I will see how the line moves by the game time and go with it then.

jtoler · 12-09-18, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by Slipknot26

Seen a stat earlier about snaps on offense
Haskins snaps -1009
Murray snaps - 807
Tua snaps - 588
That's a big ass difference and math obviously takes over stats if that's the case , no way Tua can match number to number with those differences .

with those numbers tua's numbers far outclass both its not even close not to mention he played against better defenses week to week and did it all in 3 qtrs 90% of the time. either these committee members are stupid or just like controversy

BigDofBA · 12-09-18, 01:50 AM

If you take out Kyler’s 4th quarter stats his numbers are still better than Tua’s. I know this because OU did a great job marketing Kyler for Heisman and compared his stats through three quarters to Tua and kept putting it all over social media. The argument for Tua was he didn’t play in the 4th so they did a comparison.

Tua did play against tougher defenses but without Tua Bama is probably still undefeated. They didn’t even need him to win their hardest game.

Without Murray OU probably has five losses.

BigDofBA · 12-09-18, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by Shafted69

Heisman jinx. Who the hell would want that piece of crap trophy and then end up losing in the national title game.

I would.

I feel like winning the Heisman makes you more famous than winning a national title.

There are thousands of guys that have won a national title that you wouldn’t recognize.

You recognize every Heisman winner.

VeggieDog · 12-09-18, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by Shafted69

Heisman jinx. Who the hell would want that piece of crap trophy and then end up losing in the national title game.

Athletes (of every sport) that say they would give up their individual awards in order to win a championship are lying. They just say that because it's politically correct and they want to be seen as a team player.