They have hung right around or inside this number vs a few teams I’d rank fairly close to Hofstra. Hofstra defense nothing to brag about, I could def see this somewhere between 10-15. Nothing wrong w this one, clearly starting to get shaded lines due to Monmouth poor play.
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Don’t really get this move in the n.texas/Indiana st gm. Sycamores flipping to dogs but seems like a gm they should win at home. N.texas hadn’t beaten anyone inside the top 200 yet this year. Mean green beat them at home last season in a gm that went to ot. Think I’ll wait and see but if we can get Indiana st at plus money be though to pass on.Comment -
Bought N. Texas in the Tech Value Fund at +2.5.
The stacking percentages forecast has N. Texas winning 73-58.
That non-predictive public gauge I make has Indiana St. winning 71-68.
On top of that, my sources show Indiana St. with more tickets but N. Texas with more money, much more.
That discrepancy implies sharper money that disagrees with the public, not unlike my forecast and gauge.
Then, on top of that, we are basically seeing RLM on N texas and I can identify what I consider sharp trades at multiple books I track at N. Texas +1.5 that attracted steam and, apparently, a following.
That might explain the line movement a bit.
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Great results so far, taling. Also to improve even further I recommend you check your stats on home favs/dogs, away favs/dogs and under/over separately. The #1 mistake of all serious bettors is tracking all stats together so they'll never learn their biggest strengths and weaknesses. For example there's this guy I follow who makes absolutely fantastic picks on away favs but he doesn't even know he's bleeding money on home favs because overall he's in profit.Comment -
That's the nature behind my multiple Funds these last couple months in my posting.
It really is to highlight different strategies instead of just lumping then together.
(Visiting Dogs are solid in both Hoops and NCAAF, the public has a bias to the faves and overs, always have, but they also have one for the home teams. Probably why he's bleeding)
We need to know what's working and what's whore shit.
It helps us see what condition our condition is in...
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You’ve been doing extremely well! Great workComment -
Yea, so far so good. Thanks pal. Honestly 1st of season I’m generally more back and forth w big swings, have managed to avoid that. Long as I’m up going into conf play feel pretty good we should have a solid year. I do like we been getting these early big10 games last few years, nice!Comment -
big night!! lets do it boys!Comment -
I seem to find myself against so called sharp moves quite often, I trust my capping in this sport more than enough not to sweat disagreeing w so called sharp money. Not to mention I’m not really against, more taking the perceived value I get after they beat the line to shit.. no problem w getting in early on mean green where you did, I think it be pretty close. Just feel Indiana st as dogs has to be the play..strongly disagree with your 73-58 mean green prediction but I been wrong before. What I think happens often times is sharps get down on a line like n.tex +2.5 and drive it down then you get the steam chasers that help push the value to the other side. The way both teams play I think sets up for a gm that gonna be won in the final 2 minutes.. I might just pass cause have plenty of action already but gun to my head I’d have to back sycamores getting +1.5 now. Wouldn’t be worst idea to be on both sides as dogs as really think it comes down to last few possessions.Bought N. Texas in the Tech Value Fund at +2.5.
The stacking percentages forecast has N. Texas winning 73-58.
That non-predictive public gauge I make has Indiana St. winning 71-68.
On top of that, my sources show Indiana St. with more tickets but N. Texas with more money, much more.
That discrepancy implies sharper money that disagrees with the public, not unlike my forecast and gauge.
Then, on top of that, we are basically seeing RLM on N texas and I can identify what I consider sharp trades at multiple books I track at N. Texas +1.5 that attracted steam and, apparently, a following.
That might explain the line movement a bit.
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Nice startComment -
Yeah Banker, that line has moved a ton at this point and I think you're right, this could be a tough issue to settle.
I'll try to get it up on a screen.Comment -
Yeah, when I say sharp, especially for Hoops, I'm really just talking about market moving money from books that allow certain bettors. It isn't by any means meant to say they are the best bettors or have tonight's answer.
But, I will say, that when the money and tickets disagree, the "sharper" money gets the best of them long term.
There's a reason this line moved, long term money saw an edge but that edge can take many, many plays to be realized for any workable gains.
Having both teams as dogs not sounding like a bad idea.Comment -
First half belonged to N Texas, 39-26, but we all know it's a game of halves.
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Great call bud. I think a lot of those “sharp money” sides is when we get a play released by one of several strong touts w big following. When you get on their side before they release it you way ahead in the game. Sometimes I feel better about a pass than a win as in a case like this. Knowing when to pass as important as knowing when to play!! Another thing I’ve noticed this year when kenpom has a team winning yet that team dogs like Indy st closed those have been strong plays, ala n.texas. You capped that spot on as I was with the slu/siu game!! If guys not learning things in this thread they will never learn. Appreciate you adding to the discussion my friend! Last few years our styles have given guys a great deal of solid angles!!Comment -
3-2 night. I actually pushed my straight bet on the osu:Illini under, lost RR as I got the 143.5 in that but my straight ended up being 144.., thread purposes it a loss but hopefully some got the push.. another winning day none the less!!!
Capped the nut sack st gm very well. Outright winner!!
Crushed the over in the Illi st game. Going over 160 easily as predicted (on a 154 total!).
And we were spot on with the slu under as numbers ended very close to predicted.,
Could have easily cashed the osu under, Illini scored 2-4 points more than predicted, and osu scored few more than our number, will have to go back and look at few things to see how well it was capped.,
Corn fell apart on us, def want to go back and look at the numbers there to see what happened, did minny beat them on the boards? Did minny get to charity stripe a lot?? Looks like the only game i feel was probably off on.,
Anyways winning night always good!!
Brings us to a grand total of 41-20.Comment -
Kvb you nailed Monmouth as well and regret not joining you as I mentioned I thought you were def on the right side there!!Comment -
2 biggest regrets passing on San Fran and not joining kvb on Monmouth. Coulda been a 5-2 day if we played those but is what it is. Of course also passed on sycamores which was a good move., overall happy w results.Comment -
Glad I passed., at risk of sounding cocky I think im every bit as sharp as the sharps!! Ultimately I don’t care who moves the line, when it gets moved where I see value i play it. This one just had enough issues for me to pass., while mean green played a atrocious schedule to date I gave them credit for how they closed out last season winning one those weird .com tourneys! Lol.,sometimes knowing when to paas just as valuable as a winning play!!Comment -
Not bad advice. I know my biggest strength is totals. Tend to do better w unders, believe I am better than .500 on both but my overs def don’t hit at high a clip as unders over the years.,
one thing I’d caution is just cause doing better at one thing opposed to another these things tend to balance themselves out over a full season of a lot of plays. Even if I found to this point I’m doing better w dogs than favs, home/road, vice versa, I think be a mistake to shy away as I said they tend to balance out., for me it simply all about playing numbers I see value in regardless of any of those factors. If you were interested in tracking this for me I would’nt have a problem w it, time a issue for me anyways so I simply don’t have the time to break it all down.
Appreciate everyone chiming in with their opinions/ideas, one the things I’m proudest of is running a thread where everyone feels comfortable sharing and being respectful to one another!! . We all have a lot to learn from each other and just like life this is a constant learning process, if you not open minded and trying to improve you will never stay on top of the game!
Hope to hear from you more pal, welcome aboard!!Comment -
I see minny got to line 13 more times and were +9 at charity stripe. Had lot of offensive boards but huskers hung pretty tough w bunch of second chance points as well. Ultimately minny was able to continue winning big at the FT line despite corn typically not allowing that to happen, won’t be able to see the game chart till 2marro to see at what point gophers flipped this game sometime in 2nd half.,
Another thing I think callers don’t do enough is evaluating losses and figuring out what lead to game not going as planned.. the only bad losses are ones we don’t learn from!!!Comment -
2DB 41 20 .675 0.5 - - —41 19 .683 -- 320 230 .647
Right on the heels of the WS winner.
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Yeah, I noticed you're doing great with unders. Although it's surprising you don't do as well with overs because I thought it would be easier for the free 5% edge in case of OT. I guess the possibility of OT is calculated in the totals?
I would disagree that things balance themselves out over long term. When I see someone go at 20% ROI in one area and -5% in another after 100 picks in each, I'm just gonna assume they're not as good in the latter, especially when that category is home favorites, the most popular bet of all.
I play the numbers too but for some reason they have vastly different meanings for home and away sides, at least in soccer. Odds are super important too, they tell a story, including opening lines. When my picks go into certain odds ranges I simply have to disqualify or fade them because the numbers don't matter at that point. When a line looks too good to be true it often is.
I will start tracking your bets some time later because I do that for everyone I intend to follow so I know exactly where my money goes.Comment -
Don’t disagree w premise. Guessing you talking someone else? I don’t think I’m negative in any subset. 100 plays should give a pretty good idea in each sub, while I’m better w some I don’t think I’d be negative in any subset. Ot got me quite a few times on under last year so I’d expect it be much less this season.. my overs have picked up of late so again think it be foolish to forgo them just cause struggled early on (way to small a sample, just over the years pretty confident I hit unders better, defensive games just easier for me to sniff out., if after 200 plays you show me im down in any category I’d still prob think I turn it around but I’d consider looking at things a little different!! LolComment -
i applaud your success with unders this year, man. taking an under right now is a tough pill to swallow. the ones i have played, i can't even watch and won't look at until the game is over. so many momentum shifts, teams still figuring out who they are and what pace they play. i've noticed a ton of careless turnovers which lead to auto-fouling. the last unde ri played was the belfast tournament, (that was my first mistake), with albany vs. rhode island. they scored low 40's the first half. thought my under was locked up. these scum bags scored 52 points in the first five minutes to completely dismantle my beautiful under. i love taking unders but the pace and strategy of ncaa, with little adjustments made to totals, has drawn me away.. this can be said about damn near every sport now, though. lol
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I actually feel this the one sport where they still a viable option!!! (Well also baseball, which of course happen to be my 2 best/most consistent sports! Go figure! Lol) Last year or year before whenever they reduced the clock to 30 seconds it took a second for books to adjust but they were pretty quick and has stabilized a lot this year again., all about finding the right matchups (defensive strengths opposed to what teams do well offensively, along with pace of play). Had a rough start with overs during the tourneys but those been hitting the select few of those I play lately too!!! Bottom line is I love ncaa hoops totals, I think they one of the few things left where a lot of value can be found!! (Along with 1st half dogs in the mlb season while books still trying to figure teens out and there a lot of coin flip or slightly better dogs!!).,i applaud your success with unders this year, man. taking an under right now is a tough pill to swallow. the ones i have played, i can't even watch and won't look at until the game is over. so many momentum shifts, teams still figuring out who they are and what pace they play. i've noticed a ton of careless turnovers which lead to auto-fouling. the last unde ri played was the belfast tournament, (that was my first mistake), with albany vs. rhode island. they scored low 40's the first half. thought my under was locked up. these scum bags scored 52 points in the first five minutes to completely dismantle my beautiful under. i love taking unders but the pace and strategy of ncaa, with little adjustments made to totals, has drawn me away.. this can be said about damn near every sport now, though. lolComment -
Just getting coffee in me, was still pretty faded out this morning, last night. Capped and played 1 game already but gonna have to go back and look to give a writeup as I don’t remeber wtf I saw. Just see that I made the play..
So play 1 for Thursday:
Iowa st/Iowa over 152.5.. I see it starting to move up so get quick as you can. My notes said I’d play it up to 154..Comment -
My only play also. Lets get it
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Might have few more, really limited card but been running errands. Seriously was pretty fukked up late last night/this morning, knew I was gonna be off work today so stayed up trying to cap but had a nice mix of zannys and some perks mixed so was in opiate capping zone but z’s had me not remembering what I did. Looked in account around 9 and saw this was only play I had pending!! Dunno if I capped other games or not!! Lmao!!Comment -
Ahead of the market for sure.
Good capping, I actually have a 144 point game here.
Totals for me have been off a bit for sure. It's killing my records right now and I can't seem squeeze a win out of it.
With a 1/2 point discrepancy against the line, my stacking forecast for every game (which I don't bet, but track at 1/2 point difference) over the last 100 games is down 30 units.
Brutal stretch for Totals for me, but I still don't have enough to abandon or even adjust, it probably comes back.
There are plenty of games to make that happen.
That's what we love about Hoops, so much opportunity.
Light day today, though.
On the UNDER in Fairifield, bought the opener at 149.5.
Might finally get a win with a Total bet...lol.
Good Luck Banker!
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Good post for sure.
I'm excited about this methodology, it's not new, so I'm comfortable being a little confident. It will have winners and losers of course but by season's end, I think it will realize it's EV...
We should all look forward to more plays along these lines that qualify for that Fund. I know I am.Comment -
Should start a Family of Funds thread, you're probably talking me into right now whether you know it or not...lol
Been hiding out in the Saloon and then post the dailies in Gold's thread. Been tracking it weekly where MLB was summed up daily.
If you click the Fund name, it goes to the most recent summary. At the top of each summary is the Fund title and that link describes the strategy.
I post the link to every plays original post so any play I post that has a hyperlink takes you to that post.
Not much for write-ups each game as the Fund it's in kind of already shows the reason I picked.
I quote it a lot and any play or quote can send you to the links. They are all in FlyMe...
Here's the latest summaries...
NCAAF...
Week 14 NCAAF Week 14 Season to Date Funds # Plays Units # Plays Units Totals 3 -1.07 136 6.67 ATS/ML 1 -1 92 13.01 UPSET Basket 5 -0.6 126 2.5 Visiting Dog 0 0 83 18.73 Market Reads 0 0 14 -6.02 Total: 9 -2.67 451 34.89
Been beating the closer bad in Hoops, but one Wed day where I posted 17 UNDERS, I should have known better..lol, murdered me.
I don't think anyone tracks like I do, with ta closing comparison and links like crazy.Week 4 NCAAB Week 4 Season to Date Funds # Plays Units # Plays Units ATS/ML 12 -6.23 44 3.12 Totals 3 -1.09 3 -1.09 Weekday Under 21 -9.3 21 -9.3 Visiting Value 3 0.86 3 0.86 Techinical Value 11 -1.25 11 -1.25 Total: 50 -17.01 82 -7.66
The links help since you might have to wade through ass and bewbz to find my plays.
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