444 NBA picks

[444]

Thanks for the picks. Been tailing since day 1

Thanks for being a part of this roller coaster!

[tokyotuna]

Good call so far! Gl

[444]

Saturday November 17th 2018

Clips -4.5 (1.99)

Charlotte -3 (2.00)

Pelicans ML (1.98)

Jazz +4 (1.9)

Rockets -12.5 (2.00)

Raps -10 (2.01)

Phx +5.5 (1.952)

NBA 48-41-1 YTD


Good luck guys!

[scarolinakid]

Any plays for the day sir

[444]

^^^^Posting shortly..sorry been so busy with NFL.

[scarolinakid]

Hope u got them i took a couple bad beats late

[444]

Hope u got them i took a couple bad beats late

So far so good I posted in the NFL section. 1pm's were good but 4pm looking like a battle lol

[444]

Sunday November 18th 2018


Lakers -1.5 (1.943)

Orlando -4 (1.97)

Wiz ML (2.00)

NBA 53-43-1 YTD.


Good luck guys!

[444]

100 UNIT SUMMARY

Since we are 3 weeks in I have posted a screenshot of my excel with my picks thus far that I have posted here on SBR..

Zoom in on the picture as it's very small.

We are up 8 units and the ROI is around 8% which is about right.

Again in order to generate these units we had to wager on 100 games which will take us typically about 3 weeks to achieve.

[444]

Monday November 19th 2018

Celtics -3 (1.98)

Detroit -9.5 (1.943)

Nuggets +5.5 (1.943)

OKC -2.5 (1.99)

Philly -11.5 (1.934)

NBA YTD 55-44-1. Good luck guys!

[danshan11]

100 UNIT SUMMARY

Since we are 3 weeks in I have posted a screenshot of my excel with my picks thus far that I have posted here on SBR..

Zoom in on the picture as it's very small.

We are up 8 units and the ROI is around 8% which is about right.

Again in order to generate these units we had to wager on 100 games which will take us typically about 3 weeks to achieve.

does your summary include the line value anywhere?

[444]

does your summary include the line value anywhere?

Line value? Are you asking relative to the best line possible? The answer is no and it’s something I need to work on because my ROI would increase if I maximized on each line. I do feel like I get pretty good value but it’s far from optimal.
The headers are wrong it should read: date team odds and result instead of date all across.

[danshan11]

Line value? Are you asking relative to the best line possible? The answer is no and it’s something I need to work on because my ROI would increase if I maximized on each line. I do feel like I get pretty good value but it’s far from optimal.
The headers are wrong it should read: date team odds and result instead of date all across.

I am talking about the line you bet at compared to the closing line. I feel its a very important factor

[444]

I am talking about the line you bet at compared to the closing line. I feel its a very important factor

Nope I don’t account for line value..never have on my excel. I check the closing line to compare every day for myself visually and I’m usually beating the closing line but I don’t have the numbers for you.

[danshan11]

interesting, well good luck of course!

[444]

Tuesday November 20th 2018

Raptors -6.5 (2.01)

Washington ML (2.1)

Portland -7 (1.961)

Miami -3.5 (1.934)

56-48-1 YTD NBA. Good luck guys!

[444]

Wednesday November 21st 2018

Been a rough past couple of days...


Philly -4 (1.909)

Hornets -4 (1.917)

Raps -7.5 (1.99)

Celtics -14 (1.97)

Rockets -9 (1.934)

Bucks -7 (1.952)

Nuggets ML (1.98)

Spurs -3 (1.97)

Jazz -9 (1.917)

57-51-1 YTD. Good luck guys!

[danshan11]

you should be proud you are still winning at 52% and assuming normal juice you are darn near even

[444]

you should be proud you are still winning at 52% and assuming normal juice you are darn near even

Yes the swings are part of it especially when you're averaging 6 picks a day. But historically speaking the numbers are a little lower than I'd like them to be. One day and week changes that though..for better or for the worse lol. 8-10% ROI is where I want to be..right now it's down to 3-4%.

[danshan11]

Yes the swings are part of it especially when you're averaging 6 picks a day. But historically speaking the numbers are a little lower than I'd like them to be. One day and week changes that though..for better or for the worse lol. 8-10% ROI is where I want to be..right now it's down to 3-4%.

I dont know your math but most of your lines seem to be a little fave and at 52% you are still at 4% ROI? not paying much juice I guess????

[444]

I dont know your math but most of your lines seem to be a little fave and at 52% you are still at 4% ROI? not paying much juice I guess????

When I post my picks those are the exact lines at pinnacle sports at that given moment which is the lowest juice on the market. This is to keep it transparent even though I get way better lines the night prior or in the morning. I also buy down..a lot of my bets are + money. If a game is -4.5 I sometimes will go -5. My avg bet as you can see in the excel is over 1.95 and that's because of low juice and the lines I pick.

[danshan11]

so if you average 1.95 that means assuming even stake bets

you bet
108 dollars
you won
111 dollars
isnt that about 2.7% ROI or is my 6th grade math education wrong?

also the 2.7% is nothing to laugh at, that is twice what most people win at, even the best pros! Also 100 games is not enough to even toss a salad besides think we are on to something

[danshan11]

When I post my picks those are the exact lines at pinnacle sports at that given moment which is the lowest juice on the market. This is to keep it transparent even though I get way better lines the night prior or in the morning. I also buy down..a lot of my bets are + money. If a game is -4.5 I sometimes will go -5. My avg bet as you can see in the excel is over 1.95 and that's because of low juice and the lines I pick.

here is my sales pitch again but Pinnacle has good odds but Fairlay and the other exchanges are better every single time!

[444]

so if you average 1.95 that means assuming even stake bets

you bet
108 dollars
you won
111 dollars
isnt that about 2.7% ROI or is my 6th grade math education wrong?

also the 2.7% is nothing to laugh at, that is twice what most people win at, even the best pros! Also 100 games is not enough to even toss a salad besides think we are on to something

At that given moment the ROI was higher than 2.7%. Either way it doesn't matter because it just dipped lower. Doesn't matter though because just two days ago it was at 8. The sample is too small right now so it's moving too much. When we get to about 300-400 units things will stop moving so much and we will sail around 8%. My volume is batshit insane..I average about 30-40 NBA picks a week therefore the swings are also batshit insane. 9 unit downswing 2 weeks ago and recovered in a few days...now AGAIN I'm on a 6 unit downswing. Crazy!

I'll check out fairlay..looks like a BTC site?

[444]

Friday November 23rd 2018

Brooklyn ML (2.1)

Grizz +4 (1.909)

Rockets -4.5 (1.98)

Pelicans -7 (1.925)

Wiz +9.5 (1.98)

Miami -3 (1.961)

Charlotte +6.5 (1.9)

Denver -7.5 (1.934)

Boston -8.5 (1.934)


61-56-1 YTD NBA

[444]

Saturday November 24th 2018

Houston -8.5 (1.99)

Pelicans ML (2.04)

Bulls +11 (1.9)

Bucks -9.5 (1.925)

Gstate -6 (1.943)

Boston -2.5 (1.97)

65-61-1 YTD NBA

[444]

If I parlayed the opposite on all 6 of my games yesterday I'd be rich.

Slump continues..it's a long stretch and I have hit a massive bump.

I think I am on a 13 unit downswing this week. First 100 picks were fine numbers wise..these 100 I will be extremely happy to just break even. True testament to bankroll management. This is why I keep everything 2% of my BR. I'd be a dead man otherwise. I flat every thing..helps take the emotion out of it too a bit. Anyways the grind continues..

Sunday November 25th 2018

Phx +9 (1.94)

Miami +12 (1.917)

Memphis -8.5 (1.97)

Portland -4 (1.925)

I think I am on a 13 unit downswing this week. First 100 picks were fine numbers wise..these 100 I will be extremely happy to just break even. Anyways the grind continues...

65-67-1 NBA YTD.

[endzone22]

Watched the games. Pure bad luck. Gl today sure you’ll turn it around.

[444]

Monday November 26th 2018

Twolves -5.5 (1.925)

Bucks -4.5 (1.961)

Bulls +6 (1.97)

Pelicans -2 (1.961)

Gstate -7.5 (1.943)



Rockets -2.5 (1.99)
NBA 66-70-1 YTD

[danshan11]

how do you know if you should continue on? I am looking at my own sorry record right now and I am just about a hair off the line value I need to say hang it up and figure out something. My line value has deteriorated almost every day. I am gonna rest a couple days and fire up again ONLY because of line value but if line value does not change soon, it is wasted anyway! long winded LOL but anyway how do you know when to stop or continue on? Why do you post picks anyway?

[444]

how do you know if you should continue on? I am looking at my own sorry record right now and I am just about a hair off the line value I need to say hang it up and figure out something. My line value has deteriorated almost every day. I am gonna rest a couple days and fire up again ONLY because of line value but if line value does not change soon, it is wasted anyway! long winded LOL but anyway how do you know when to stop or continue on? Why do you post picks anyway?

I continue because I have been doing this for many years with success. A 15 unit downswing occurs couple times a season so I’m not surprised. I post because I don’t see people posting several picks a day and have a winning record. Trying to show that I can.

[danshan11]

444, do you believe you need an edge on a bet or can you just flat out pick winners?

like say the Barnstormers are -7 do you bet the Barnstormers because you think it will close at -9 or do you bet the Barnstormers because they will win by more than -7?

if you dont know if you have an edge then how do you know your advantage however it is derived is still there?

[444]

444, do you believe you need an edge on a bet or can you just flat out pick winners?

like say the Barnstormers are -7 do you bet the Barnstormers because you think it will close at -9 or do you bet the Barnstormers because they will win by more than -7?

if you dont know if you have an edge then how do you know your advantage however it is derived is still there?

No I don’t need an edge. It helps though. My advantage is there because I’ve tracked for years and generated a positive ROI, specifically in mlb.

[444]

Tuesday November 27th 2018

Knicks +7.5 (1.925)

Miami -7.5 (1.909)

Toronto -5.5 (1.917)

Suns +3 (1.952)

Denver -3.5 (1.97)

NBA 68-74-1 YTD.

[danshan11]

No I don’t need an edge. It helps though. My advantage is there because I’ve tracked for years and generated a positive ROI, specifically in mlb.

but doesnt the game change over "years" how is your model or way still relevant after years?