Tour De France

Art Vandeleigh · 07-06-09, 03:37 AM

Mike, a question for you, maybe you can help.

I see today (July 6) lots of stage 3 matchups.

At the Greek, (3rd page, "other Events") almost 20 different matchups some with + money on one of the riders in many matchups.

Anyway, today's stage looks like a peleton finsh, so all riders will get the same time.

So what's the deal? If they're grading the winner of the matchup by time, all the matchups will be ties.

If they grade by who physically crosses the finish line before the other, well since everyone gets the same time, if you're not going for a stage win there's no incentive to get closer to the front of the pack then the back of the pack, so you'd think these matchups would be completely random, and neither rider should be getting + money. For example Gil vs. Mondory, or A. Shleck vs. Kreuziger, these guys aren't going for stage wins, right?

Should we just blindly bet any rider that has + money when neither are expected to be going for a stage win?

englishmike · 07-06-09, 03:55 PM

Art: I don't play daily matchups and I didn't see those lines, however I think the finishing order is governed by standings on the podium or any official time difference, meaning anyone in the peleton is graded the same and therefore the bet becomes no action but there are podium positions, that's how it will be graded. If you're going to bet you need to read the rules of the particular book because they can vary, so be careful.

As for playing + money, I'm really not sure but I'm inclined to thinking there could be a marginal perceived edge. Established sprinters will win the flat stages unless there is a breakaway, so if you're guy is in a breakaway you have a chance and conversely, as long as your opponent isn't in the first 3 you have very little downside, but you have to balance that with crashes and mechanical problems. As they say, life itself is a coin flip.

RageWizard · 07-06-09, 04:16 PM

Cavendish has been mopping up the competition, and I haven't been investing in him because he gets bad odds.
For tomorrow though, take team Astana and a whole shitload of chaulk. So for me, it will be $500 on Astana -272.

englishmike · 07-06-09, 04:23 PM

Interesting you say that rage, I feel the same, how can you pull the trigger chalk on Cavendish when one false move will see him off the bike?

RageWizard · 07-06-09, 04:32 PM

He's 2-0 so far, but I didn't pull the trigger the first day because he was at +105 or something like that against the entire field. I didn't even see the 2nd day odds for him, but rest assured for stage 5 in two days, his odds will be even worse. I do think he will get just about all of the sprint finishes, nobody can hang with him, and the columbia team is really good at leading him out. Yeah, he could fall of the bike or a break away could succeed, but if it comes down to a sprint finish like it usually does, there isn't anyone who can challenge him, even that Thor dude.

RageWizard · 07-06-09, 04:39 PM

I also like Team Saxo Bank +124 against team Columbia tommorrow. Columbia used allot of energy today squeezing out a 30 second break away for the team today against some heavy cross winds for a good 15 miles or so, and Saxo Bank has the yellow jersey, and the brothers Schelck who haven't been doing so well this year yet. The pressure will be on.

englishmike · 07-06-09, 09:08 PM

Good analisys Rage. I'm leaving the day-to-day match ups alone and concentrating on the futures market with an eye to trying to predict the mountain stages and create some sort of large profit without Armstrong or Contador, i'm willing to play against both and take nice lines about some others to finish top 3.

englishmike · 07-07-09, 02:24 AM

Just watched todays stage, Armstrong stuck a knife into Contador and you can look out for Armstrong in yellow after tommorows team time trial.

I'm not sure where that leaves my Leipheimer bet, he's 1.11 back which is ok but he's got team-mates Armstrong, Contador and kloden in front of him which renders Leipheimer nothing more than a footsoldier in the team aspect of things.

All I can hope is Astana take more seconds from the field in the team time trial, they then stay solid until the mountains and Leipheimer then rides a fantastic mountain stage to maybe take second or third. It's interesting, that's for sure.

englishmike · 07-07-09, 04:06 PM

Great pick with Saxo bank Rage, well done, and even more impressive because it: A) played out EXACTLY as you said, and B) it was +124.

Leipheimer is up to 5th so I'm hoping he can be point man for Armstrong and take time from the other three Astana riders in the top five.

RageWizard · 07-08-09, 06:34 PM

Thanks Mike, things have been happening for the most part like I thought they would. I was going to bet on Cavendish this morning, but I got up too late, and lucked out when a break away actually made it to the finish. That's a pretty rare occurence. As far as my futures bet against Contador is concerned, I'm just about toast, Evans, Menchov, and Shleck are each a few minutes behind already. The only one I have left is Armstrong, and I really believe that he will find it difficult in the mountains compared to Contador (Valesco). I really believe that your pick of Levi, is starting to look like a good possibility. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see an all Astana podium when they roll into Paris.
As far as predicting the next couple of stages, I'm at a loss. Some of the favorites have been making bad mistakes, and I know that Astana will be protecting their lead through the first set of mountain stages, so I don't expect anyone from Astana to win in the mountains this weekend. There will probably be several attacks from the guys I bet on to beat Contador like the Schlecks, Menchov, and Evans, so maybe taking one of those guys to win a mountain stage might be a play, but only if the price is in the +200 and above range.

englishmike · 07-09-09, 12:04 AM

The whole 'team' make-up of the race puts one in a weird betting position. If Leipheimer can ride well in the mountains I'm very confident he can get third but because of the nature of being a soldier on the team his chance of winning is pretty much zero with four Astana riders ahead of him.

We'll see, but third place would give me a seven unit profit so i'm hopeful.

RageWizard · 07-10-09, 06:13 PM

Well after watching today, I am totally convinced that contador will win. He looks ready to roll. I am in the process of covering my earlier bets against Contador with all of the other guys. They limited me at Pinny so it took a couple of times, but I just put a dime on Contador to win -316. I will probably be adding to this in the next couple of days, when some of the big contenders attack and get nowhere. The only contender who is going to be close is Armstrong, and he won't have the legs to compete. Next week will bear this out, and as a constallation prize, Armstrong will win the second to the last stage in the last mountain climb. Old Levi will have an excellent chance of finishing in the top 3. All of the other big contenders are several minutes behind already, and I don't see Astana cracking enough to give them any time back. This race is over, unless of course Contador gets nailed for steriods, then all my other bets will win, and I can still cover my dime from today's plays. If he does get busted, I hope it happens before monday, because I will probably put another dime on him at that time, and it will probably be -500 by then.

englishmike · 07-10-09, 06:39 PM

You make a great point about steroids and although it's unlikely, anyone who's watched the Tour for long enough knows nothing is impossible.

I agree with you about Contador, I think it's fair to say it's his Tour to lose barring an extraordinary performance from Lance.

As for Levi, who knows, but if you'd have offered me this position at the start I would have taken it, so from a betting point of view I'm happy with the perceived edge I feel I have at the price I took.

RageWizard · 07-13-09, 06:51 PM

Hey people, I was looking at the race schedule, and there are really only 2 more stages that Cavendish could possibly win, well 3 if he makes it to paris. Tommorrow, Wednesday, and the last Sunday. Looking at the matchup odds at Pinny, he is -389 to beat Hushovd tommorrow. WTF, that's huge, although he will probably win.

So I am taking Hushovd as a total dark horse to win +337, how about the vig huh, for $25.

I like Hushovd -146 to beat Farrar to the finish however for $100.

Also the odds on Contador came down a little bit for him to win the entire race outright, -243, so I put another dime on his ass.

There was a question that I just read from the begining of the thread that asked how the natchups are scored if everyone gets the same time. Sorry for taking an entire week to respond, but even though they get the same time, there is a radio transponder connected to the bike that a computer will determine who cross the line first. Even though they all get the same time, the first 25 guys across the line get sprinter's points. Watch out taking some of the riders who have no stake in the sprinter's race however, because allot of the time they don't give a shit as long as they get the same time. The only one's who care about final placement in any stage, are the sprinters, for a flat stage, or the people in contention for a mountain top finish.

RageWizard · 07-14-09, 05:03 PM

Yes another profitable day in the TDF. Sure I'm eatting chalk like Joey Chesnut at a chinese buffet, but they are winning, and I am picking the onew with the least after chalk taste. So for tomorrow, the same shit will continue but I see the books are trying to mix up the heads up matchups.

Take Cavendish (-242) for $150 against Farrar. Are you efing kinding me, Farrar can't beat hushovd, and now they got him heads up on Cavendish with less than 300 odds. Tommorrows ending will be the same as today's except that maybe Freire will take Farrar's place in 3rd place.

So that leads me to pick number 2.
Take old Thor Hushovd -169 for $150 to beat Freire.

Good luck to everyone who plays this totally predictable sport, and by that I mean like maybe 3 people here.

smitch124 · 07-17-09, 02:27 PM

Levi Leipheimer out of the race with a broken wrist

Sucks, was looking like a great pick

RageWizard · 07-17-09, 04:12 PM

Yeah, I feel sorry for EnglishMike, all Levi had to do is make the podium. It was looking like it was going to be an all Astana podium until Levi wiped out.

For tomorrow, I' staying with the Cavendish (-372) for $100 against the Hushovd heads up matchup. The odds are out-freaking-rageous, but I guess until Hushovd can actually beat Cavendish, that's the way it is going to be.

RageWizard · 07-18-09, 11:09 AM

Allot of shit happening today in the tour on a flat stage of all things. Yes Cavendish still beat Hushovd today which is good news for today atleast, but George Hincape has reeled back over 5 minutes in the overall classification, and that has me worried about my Contador pick.
As the tour started I placed wagers against Contador, and then with a week gone by I placed a couple of dimes on him to win. I did this partly because his nearest rival is Armstrong, who happens to be on the same team. The idea being that even if Armstrong is trying to one up his teammate, and he is lets not mistake that, he wouldn't be able to because whatever he has the team do on his behalf will also benefit Contador. Now I believe that Armstrong has let his best friend back into the race so that he can get help from him. I'm not going to go into how he did this, but it totally smells of a Armstrong coup here. Even though Hindcape is on a columbia team that has been pulling for Cavendish, he will now be in the mix going up the mountains for the last week. Don't be surprized if Armstrong and Hindcape team up against Contador. It will be just like old times for Armstrong. If contador is smart, he will look at Armstrong as the main opposition to his making money for me.
So the last week will be as exciting as bicycle racing gets with mostly mountain stages left, and even a time trial happens before they give way to the road to Paris.

RageWizard · 07-20-09, 05:54 PM

Lets face it, with my futures picks on the race aside, I have been kicking ass on this year's tour. Unless Contador falls off his bike or gets caught doing roids, he will make me money, so as a side pick tomorrow, I will back old Contador (+102) for $50against Andy Schleck in the heads up matchup. I don't think contador will allow some time to be taken off of him, but the finish is a downhill right after a climb, so there will probably be a bunch finish with all the major contenders in the group. Hopefully contador can extend his lead so that the stars will align for Saturday's payoff bet with Armstrong likeI told you a couple of weeks ago.

RageWizard · 07-21-09, 08:21 PM

No surprise here, old Contador came from way back in the back as they rounded a corner and went down the stretch for the line and thus helping me collect another easy winner. So tomorrow we will stay with Contador (-169) for another $50 to beat Schleck on the toughest day in the tour this year. I'm sure the increased chalk is due to Contador chasing down riders at the end of today's stage when in reality, he didn't have too. Again enjoy another easy winner tomorrow and good luck.

RageWizard · 07-22-09, 06:23 PM

Nobody gives a shit, but I don't care as long as I keep collecting. Today I just got lucky, what can I say. The Shleck brothers mounted an attack on Contador, and Contador even helped them by launching an attack to drop a rider on his own team. Lucky for me Frank Schleck set all of the pace making on the last couple of climbs today, setting the stage for his brother Andy Schleck to take the lead out to the finish line for his brother to take the stage victory, and in the process letting old Contador finish ahead of him, thus helping me collect for another day.

Tomorrow is a time trial of around 40km or about 24 miles. It will take about an hour to do, so in the heads up category, I'm placing an investment on Wiggins (-149) for $100 against Kloden. They are both time trial dudes, but Wiggins is better, and he looks like he wants it more. Add to the fact that Wiggins is just 9 seconds behind Kloden, 52 seconds behind Armstrong, and more importantly 1 minute 28 seconds behind Schleck for a possible podium finish when they ride into Paris on Sunday.

The way this race is going, I don't want it to finish on Sunday, because that will mark the end of the easy money.

RageWizard · 07-23-09, 05:32 PM

Another ho-hum day of collecting winners for me. As predicted, Wiggins finished better than Kloden and I get to have another few bucks added to my vault.

Tomorrow, I will take old Lance (+142) for $50 against the same Kloden. Kloden is now relegated to being a workhorse for Lance and Contador in the hopes that they can both be on the podium in Paris. Tomorrow will probably be controlled by team Saxo Bank, and columbia until the second intermediate sprint, then the men will come out and attack on the big climb of the day just before the descent to the finish. Old Lance is getting good odds for what will probably be a bunch finish in the end. I just hope he is like Contador, and takes a look at who he has to beat to the line. Even if it really doesn''t matter to his overall time.

JoshW · 07-23-09, 08:54 PM

Some good writeups and picks Rage, thanks.

The General · 07-23-09, 08:58 PM

yep. Good stuff. Sorry for the injury Mike.

RageWizard · 07-24-09, 04:09 PM

Yay, for me Armstrong was able to beat Kloden.
Tomorrow is a big day for Armstrong. He has had tomorrow circled on his calendar for a while now, so he will have the motovation to cart his ass up the worst climb in France. I'm sticking with him (+231) for $100 vs. Frank Schleck. Don't be surprised if he actually wins tomorrow either.

RageWizard · 07-25-09, 01:22 PM

OK Armstrong didn't win, but he did beat Frank Schleck and I win yet again. This race finally ends tomorrow, so I will throw out there 4, yes 4 picks that will win, just like they have been pretty much for the whole tour. OK, I'm really only betting on the first 2, but don't worry, the other 2 will win also.

1. Cavendish (-168) for $100 vs. the field.

No one has beat this dude yet, and it ain't happening tomorrow either. Cavendish is pissed that he got penalized for blocking a couple of days ago, and he will easily beat the entire field to prove the point that he should be in the green jersey.

2. Kloden (-159) for $100 vs. Contador.

Usually the winner of the entire event will hang back and finish the race all by himself, and with over 4 minutes to spare, Contador will come in behind the entire field like tradition dictates. Easy winner, I can't even believe this one is on the board. Maybe they know something at Pinny, but I haven't lost many, so I'll bite on this one.

3. Cavendish (-510) vs. Hushovd.

Too much chalk for me, but since Cavendish will win against the field, he will also beat Hushovd. I guess this would be a fall back position if there is a break away, but in the last stage, that almost never happens.

4. Hushovd (-150) vs. Farrar.

Just like Hushovd can't beat Cavendish, Farrar can't beat hushovd, its that simple.