How many games are needed to see if a strategy makes a longterm profit?

[Noriodie]

Hi,


I am a tennis better and my brain is currently testing 48 different Tennis-Bet-Strategies with virtual money to find one that produces $$$ in the long run.

I am tracking all strategies with an excel bettracker which is even with copy and paste really a pain in the a** to fill it all out.
But hey, fom nothing comes nothing right?


Heres my question to experienced bettors:

How many games are needed to see if a strategy makes a longterm profit and to restart it with real money?


I personally thought about 1.000 games to close it if its produces a negative profit or reopen a strategy with real money if its produces profit after 1.000 games.

Is this to less or to much? Could one see a tendecy if 100 games are evaluated? Or is this way too early to see in which directon a strategy leans?




I would really appreciate any help on this topic.


greetings,

Noriodie

[Darkside Magick]

At least 2,000 games

[jjgold]

there is no number, once you imply real money everything changes Son

Systems like picking darts all have runs winning and losing although long term juice buries every gambler

[Noriodie]

At least 2,000 games

there is no number, once you imply real money everything changes Son

Systems like picking darts all have runs winning and losing although long term juice buries every gambler

I dont think so, because this are no strategies where I bet on a gut feeling.
All strategies are based on previous match stats and H2Hs.

[shari91]

If any of those 48 strategies involve Martingaling then none of them will count without real money invested as it's easy to chase with virtual money... are you going to do that when you're on a 8 match chase with actual $$ on the line?

Realistically you've already got a number in your head by starting this thread you believe you're ready so there's no definitive number that any of us say that will help you. Just go for it if you believe in your systems and good luck!

[Darkside Magick]

2,000 has been my benchmark... Along with ROI you need to see if you just guessing or making good bets... If after 2000 bets your z-score is 2 or above(2 standards deviation) above the mean then you are akin to win long term

[cincinnatikid513]

could u name a few of the 48 different systems wanna see if the pms angle is being used for wta matches

[Noriodie]

If any of those 48 strategies involve Martingaling then none of them will count without real money invested as it's easy to chase with virtual money... are you going to do that when you're on a 8 match chase with actual $$ on the line?

Realistically you've already got a number in your head by starting this thread you believe you're ready so there's no definitive number that any of us say that will help you. Just go for it if you believe in your systems and good luck!

No Martingaling. I am no gambler.

[Noriodie]

2,000 has been my benchmark... Along with ROI you need to see if you just guessing or making good bets... If after 2000 bets your z-score is 2 or above(2 standards deviation) above the mean then you are akin to win long term

Thanks 4 that info. What is a z-score? Is it saying if my ROI is 2 or above after 2.000 games than I`ll make money long term?

[Darkside Magick]

Thanks 4 that info. What is a z-score? Is it saying if my ROI is 2 or above after 2.000 games than I`ll make money long term?

If your z-score is 2 or above. ... Z - score is basically standard diviation

Is your systems automated or you make the picks?

[Noriodie]

If your z-score is 2 or above. ... Z - score is basically standard diviation

Is your systems automated or you make the picks?

Every match is checked after specific rules. The bets are then picked in relation of certain stats from prevoius matches and H2Hs. And the players (betting only ATP) are then splitted up in different betforms (but only when the stats fits another specific rules).

[jjgold]

there is no correct answer

[Darkside Magick]

Put your system in action..

Here my play for the Shanghai Masters tennis match within the next hour

Borna Coric +155 vs Juan Martin del Potro

What your system say?

[danshan11]

test your 1000 games
bet at line against closing line and subtract the margin, if it shows +EV you are on your way!
1000 games is nowhere near enough, go to this site put in 2 choices and set the number to 1000 or 2000 and you will see, 1000 is not enough by any stretch. http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/...stableSpinner/
you will see very quickly that 1000 is very very random at best