NFL and NCAAF picks that you should be banging hard this week

[danwinkler]

NCAAF

South Carolina -1.5
Cali +2.5
Penn St +3.5
Central Michigan +29.5
Mid Tenn St +2.5

NFL

Chicago -3
Cleveland +3
Detroit +3
Green Bay -10
Miami +7
San Francisco +10.5


3% on each.

[icon]

NFL

Chicago -3
Detroit +3
Miami +7


3% on each.

Love these 3 games as well. My only plays on Sunday.

[danwinkler]

Love these 3 games as well. My only plays on Sunday.

I like them all equally. I am using the 3% compounding strategy for my bankroll but I dont use a 1 to 10 unit scale. I just use the same % on all bets. This strategy is one of the most underrated strategies in sports betting. Does magic for bankroll. The more games you play, faster you double your bankroll but of course you will have to make decent picks.

[icon]

I will be betting a 3 team parlay for $60.

[danwinkler]

I will be betting a 3 team parlay for $60.

Then you should bet $180 on each of the 3 games. cant go wrong with that because at worst those 3 games go 2-1.

[thetrinity]

I like them all equally. I am using the 3% compounding strategy for my bankroll but I dont use a 1 to 10 unit scale. I just use the same % on all bets. This strategy is one of the most underrated strategies in sports betting. Does magic for bankroll. The more games you play, faster you double your bankroll but of course you will have to make decent picks.

i usually do 1.5% or 3% on my bets always, no in-betweens, i should say ive been doing this and prefer this approach for about 2 years

[icon]

Then you should bet $180 on each of the 3 games. cant go wrong with that because at worst those 3 games go 2-1.

I already bet. I changed my mind on Chicago and used Seattle instead.

[danwinkler]

i usually do 1.5% or 3% on my bets always, no in-betweens, i should say ive been doing this and prefer this approach for about 2 years

If you look at the spreadsheet on that page, you will notice that they use mostly same sized bets too. But the amount is always RISK rather than to win, so an 8 unit bet is same amount risked on any odds. The 1 to 10 unit scale is there to adjust the risk size based on odd size. over 80% of the bets on that spreadsheet is for risk of 8 units and the odds range is -110 to +130. Lower size risk unit is used when underdogs are played.

But i personally risk 3% on all my picks regardless of the odds. I don't follow their picks, just using that strategy and spreadsheet to do my own picks. Their picks are good but I travel every other week for work from time zone to time zone and its hard to consistently follow their releases.

So in weeks when i don't travel, i put some time to research and play as many value games as possible. Then when i am travelling, i dont bet at all.

[danwinkler]

NCAAF

South Carolina -1.5
Cali +2.5
Penn St +3.5
Central Michigan +29.5
Mid Tenn St +2.5

NFL

Chicago -3
Cleveland +3
Detroit +3
Green Bay -10
Miami +7
San Francisco +10.5


3% on each.

NCAAF went 3-2
NFL went 4-1-1
All together 7-3-1

[jm8122]

NCAAF went 3-2
NFL went 4-1-1
All together 7-3-1

Note to self to never take Miami ever again Tannehill is beyond attrocious

[danwinkler]

Note to self to never take Miami ever again Tannehill is beyond attrocious

He is one of those dudes who will repeatedly wet the bed when you back him and put up 350+ yards and 4+ TDs on those occasions you bet against him.

[SportsPedagogy]

Good stuff man.

[danwinkler]

Tonight:

NFL: Philadelphia -1

3%

[The J-Dizzle]

Then you should bet $180 on each of the 3 games. cant go wrong with that because at worst those 3 games go 2-1.

At worst, they go 0-3. Like your confidence though, good luck buddy!

[danwinkler]

Texas St +17.5 in ncaaf
3%

[alamo]

Can you do write ups or are you just guessing on these picks ?

[danwinkler]

Can you do write ups or are you just guessing on these picks ?

Write ups are for marketers. I can do a convincing write up for both side of any games because keep in mind that odds and spread are dynamic. Write up matters only if all games are -110 at both sides without any spread, but that is not the case. The picks that i post are based on line value where i estimate the edge to be +ev over the long run with many bets.....thats pretty much to it in terms of real write up.

[Snowball]

thinking about Nevada or UNLV
both getting generous points.

what do u think

[danwinkler]

thinking about Nevada or UNLV
both getting generous points.

what do u think

haven't looked that far. i dont play many games, but will post if i play something and get a chance to get online. i am on the road quite a bit, so don't get to bet as much as i used to.

[danwinkler]

Texas St +17.5 in ncaaf
3%

Tonight:

NFL: Philadelphia -1

3%

2-0 tonight.

4-2 NCAAF
5-1-1 NFL

9-3-1 Overall.

[pimike]

2-0 tonight.

4-2 NCAAF
5-1-1 NFL

9-3-1 Overall.

Good stuff!

[bababoyee]

Nice work Dan!
Keep it going

[Rambo]

Dan, whats a nice Christian boy like you doing here?

[danwinkler]

NCAAF:

Wisconsin +10
Memphis +5.5

NFL

Jacksonville -3
Chicago -3.5

3% each

[danwinkler]

NCAAF:

Iowa St +6.5
Nevada +16.5 (lost a lot of line value on this but still think its good)
San Jose St +16.5
USC -6.5

3% each.

I think few of those doggies win straight up but gonna stick to the spread.

[A Quant]

NCAAF:

Iowa St +6.5
Nevada +16.5 (lost a lot of line value on this but still think its good)
San Jose St +16.5
USC -6.5

3% each.

I think few of those doggies win straight up but gonna stick to the spread.

Why? Not trying to be a dick but if you really believe a dog is going to win, why would you not bet on it?

[danwinkler]

Why? Not trying to be a dick but if you really believe a dog is going to win, why would you not bet on it?

That comment includes my other two picks that i posted as well with wisky and memphis.

I never said I didn't bet them. Just don't want to post them because i use this 3% compounding money management that I talked about in the earlier posts. I almost always all bets as 10 units, i.e. 3%. Sometimes when I like the money line, I would bet 8 or 9 units on the spread (2.4% or 2.7%) and bet 1 or 2 units (0.3% or 0.6%) on the moneyline. I track my portfolio with the spreadsheet used in that money management article; everything is automatic once you log the bets and grade them.
I didn't want to complicate things here so i am simply sticking to the spread.

[shocka1212]

Chicago not the play boss......

[gauchojake]

Very disciplined Dan...PASS

Just kidding - gl with your bets

[danwinkler]

Chicago not the play boss......

For me, it is. Good Luck.

[danwinkler]

Another:

Liberty +10
3%

For those who like write up, Troy's QB Kaleb Parker is out for season after getting injured last season, look him up and see his passing and running stats. Line is already reflecting that injury but there are few other factors in play that makes Liberty a play for me.

[danwinkler]

Few More for NFL:

Atlanta -3
Denver +6.5

3%

[danwinkler]

NCAAF:Wisconsin +10Memphis +5.5NFLJacksonville -3Chicago -3.53% each

NCAAF:Iowa St +6.5Nevada +16.5 (lost a lot of line value on this but still think its good)San Jose St +16.5USC -6.53% each.I think few of those doggies win straight up but gonna stick to the spread.

Another:Liberty +103%For those who like write up, Troy's QB Kaleb Parker is out for season after getting injured last season, look him up and see his passing and running stats. Line is already reflecting that injury but there are few other factors in play that makes Liberty a play for me.

Few More for NFL:Atlanta -3Denver +6.53%

NCAAF 5-2
NFL 2-2

Overall

NCAAF 9-4
NFL 7-3-1
Combined: 16-7-1

[shocka1212]

Chicago game could've gone either way... but that game had public burial written all over It which is why I bet Miami.

[danwinkler]

Chicago game could've gone either way... but that game had public burial written all over It which is why I bet Miami.

At -3/-3.5 i thought it had it as decent value. Had, no idea the line went all the way to -7. That was an automatic no brainier hedge on +7 but I didn't really pay attention the line after i bet it. I don't normally hedge but that was a perfect must hedge situation when the line moves by more than a field goal and touches/passess a key number.