Air Force vs Nevada

[Mackballs]

Over 64 is a strong play in my opinion.

This should be up and down the field type game with both teams having success offensively. I see a back and forth high scoring affair in this one.


Thank you

[swordsandtequila]

Like Air Force to cover

[jjgold]

Over

Very few teams play under style football in college

[Kike Anderson]

Nevada and Over

[Cincy Courier]

Air Force -6.5 would be my one play if i had to pick just one this weekend.

[KVB]

Over

Very few teams play under style football in college

Doesn't matter the style they play, the line matters.

That said, if you've been betting the same unit risked on Overs all season, you were double digit units early, but now up about 5 units.

Last year was quite an exception, if you tried to bet all Overs last year, risking the same amount each game, you got crushed, losing 90 units. If you tried to bet all Unders, risking the same on each bet, you might have won 30 units.

Over more than a decade, taking out last year's outlier, you were still better off betting NCAAF Unders, not overs, you will lose significantly less, about 1/3 the units.

[Mackballs]

Doesn't matter the style they play, the line matters.

That said, if you've been betting the same unit risked on Overs all season, you were double digit units early, but now up about 5 units.

Last year was quite an exception, if you tried to bet all Overs last year, risking the same amount each game, you got crushed, losing 90 units. If you tried to bet all Unders, risking the same on each bet, you might have won 30 units.

Over more than a decade, taking out last year's outlier, you were still better off betting NCAAF Unders, not overs, you will lose significantly less, about 1/3 the units.

KVB raining on my over parade

Always got the facts though, I appreciate you.

[BigdaddyQH]

"Over more than a decade, taking out last year's outlier, you were still better off betting NCAAF Unders, not overs, you will lose significantly less, about 1/3 the units." That is a stupid post. A Decade? 10 years? Just where do you get this information? I will guarantee you that your statement is not even close to being true.

As far as the game goes, I cannot see this game going under. There are over 75 points on average scored in the Division 1 games that Nevada is involved in this season and 67 points scored in those games involving the Air Force. 64 seems very low.

[KVB]

KVB raining on my over parade

Always got the facts though, I appreciate you.

Not really raining on your parade. Overs have been good this year...

...That said, if you've been betting the same unit risked on Overs all season, you were double digit units early, but now up about 5 units.

That's supposed to say you were UP double digit units early.

I was really raining more on Gold's assumption that Overs are the college play, even though it's been supported early season because they certainly weren't last year.

As far as Nevada/Force go, I think the coaches may be adjusting the game plans this week to avoid throwing too much in the wind. My sources show the public and money on the Over as well.

Despite the early action, some of it overwhelming, though light in volume, on the Over, we have seen the line move down quite a bit.

Further we have identified several early sharp plays that are consistent with that move.

Those facts might rain on your over parade, even though much more information will come in on this game.

I have no play yet in the Total Fund, but could see a contrarian play on the Under.

The broad Totals basket, sets of advantageous Total plays, that I started tracking but stopped because I am already tracking so much, already bought the Under.

That's a broad basket of plays, a lot of plays, that will give a small positive ROI.

There will be plenty of losers in that basket.

[KVB]

...As far as the game goes, I cannot see this game going under. There are over 75 points on average scored in the Division 1 games that Nevada is involved in this season and 67 points scored in those games involving the Air Force. 64 seems very low.

This basic analysis of averages leading to a conclusion, Mack, is a bigger rain on your parade than anything I posted.

[Rambo]

This was my top college over the total this week. It opened at 68 1/2 and on Tuesday dropped to 63, then back up to 64...

I cant find anything online thaT POINTS TO WHY.

jUST A VERY UNUSUALLY LARGE MOVE WITHOUT ANY MAJOR INJURY OR WEATHER NEWS. OOPs just saw all caps, my bad. Anyway anyone see anything that warrants the big drop?

[stevenash]

Over 64 is a strong play in my opinion.

This should be up and down the field type game with both teams having success offensively. I see a back and forth high scoring affair in this one.


Thank you

Good eye, Air Force can move the ball.

Air Force to cover and the over are my plays here.

[KVB]

This was my top college over the total this week. It opened at 68 1/2 and on Tuesday dropped to 63, then back up to 64...

I cant find anything online thaT POINTS TO WHY.

jUST A VERY UNUSUALLY LARGE MOVE WITHOUT ANY MAJOR INJURY OR WEATHER NEWS. OOPs just saw all caps, my bad. Anyway anyone see anything that warrants the big drop?

There has been an expectation of higher winds, up to 13 mph at the beginning of the game.

There is evidence that these type of winds affect the game plan and scoring as a whole. It's actually a strong indication and can be built into a line with an adjustment.

...As far as Nevada/Force go, I think the coaches may be adjusting the game plans this week to avoid throwing too much in the wind. My sources show the public and money on the Over as well.

Despite the early action, some of it overwhelming, though light in volume, on the Over, we have seen the line move down quite a bit.

Further we have identified several early sharp plays that are consistent with that move...

The market has reacted to sharp early moves on the Under in the face of the public buying of the Over.

That can be a big deal among major books.

The line movement isn't unexplained, in my opinion.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

...I have no play yet in the Total Fund, but could see a contrarian play on the Under.

The broad Totals basket, sets of advantageous Total plays, that I started tracking but stopped because I am already tracking so much, already bought the Under...

The NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up...

NEVADA/ AIR FORCE UNDER 63.5 (-105)...

We're going to battle it out Mack.

[Mackballs]

Now it gets a little interesting kvb.

We SHALL see sir

[Mackballs]

Not really though

[swordsandtequila]

Air Force looks like dog shit