Factors for line movement

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  • daneblazer
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 09-14-08
    • 27861

    #1
    Factors for line movement
    Actual sports betting discussion.

    Money, weather, injuries can do it. What else? Is there a particular trend setting book? One who moves the line first and then others follow?
  • pavyracer
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 04-12-07
    • 82840

    #2
    The biggest factor is line was set up wrong and the betting corrects it. Line managers make mistakes.
    Comment
    • daneblazer
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 09-14-08
      • 27861

      #3
      Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other
      Comment
      • jjgold
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-20-05
        • 388179

        #4
        Originally posted by daneblazer
        Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other
        dont want scalpers thats why
        Comment
        • pavyracer
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 04-12-07
          • 82840

          #5
          I know books adjust the juice instead of the line. If they want you to bet +7 they will make the juice as high as -140 before giving you +6.5 line. The difference between -12 and -13.5 is very small to adjust juice. Key numbers are 3, 7, 14, 17, 21 etc.
          Comment
          • SharpAngles
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-15-14
            • 9467

            #6
            Dont forget the trap line moves. When the trendy dog or favorite gets an extra half point hours before kick it’s usually the books trying to catch the steam bettors.

            Originally posted by daneblazer
            Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other
            Because most books are scared to be wrong so they let the few originators set the number and adjust the juice accordingly.
            Comment
            • d2bets
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 08-10-05
              • 39995

              #7
              Originally posted by daneblazer
              Guess the question I have is why don’t we see more variance in lines across all books? Why isn’t a line -12 at one book and -15 at another? With the exception of bovada, everyone seems to be a half point within each other
              Because if the prevailing line is -15 and the book posts -12, all of the money will come in at -12 and the book will have totally lopsided action. If the book wants a little more action one way or another a slight juice move or perhaps a half point will do the trick. No need to be so off-market.
              Comment
              • daneblazer
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 09-14-08
                • 27861

                #8
                When i worked for a local years and years ago, if we were getting pounded on one side, he’d move it until the action on that side reduced. If it didn’t they were taking a “worse” line. Have a hard time believing every book is getting the same amount of action on one side. Maybe it’s different now with internet books and people ready to jump on an advantageous line.
                Comment
                • d2bets
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-10-05
                  • 39995

                  #9
                  Originally posted by daneblazer
                  When i worked for a local years and years ago, if we were getting pounded on one side, he’d move it until the action on that side reduced. If it didn’t they were taking a “worse” line. Have a hard time believing every book is getting the same amount of action on one side. Maybe it’s different now with internet books and people ready to jump on an advantageous line.
                  Bingo. Easy to compare and shop. Been that way for 20 years.
                  Comment
                  • gauchojake
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 09-17-10
                    • 34116

                    #10
                    Sometimes books want action on the same team at a different number.

                    All the guys who say books want 50/50 crack me up.
                    Comment
                    • d2bets
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 39995

                      #11
                      Originally posted by gauchojake
                      Sometimes books want action on the same team at a different number.

                      All the guys who say books want 50/50 crack me up.
                      For the record, I certainly did not say that.
                      Comment
                      • jtoler
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-17-13
                        • 30967

                        #12
                        Originally posted by gauchojake
                        Sometimes books want action on the same team at a different number.

                        All the guys who say books want 50/50 crack me up.
                        all the guys that say they dont crack me up
                        Comment
                        • Louisvillekid1
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-17-07
                          • 52143

                          #13
                          Jeez no wonder so many lose

                          Lol They just want the best OPP to get their vig as safely as possible
                          Comment
                          • gauchojake
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 09-17-10
                            • 34116

                            #14
                            Originally posted by d2bets
                            For the record, I certainly did not say that.
                            I know that there are guys who will come in and say that, so just a preemptive comment not related to your earlier comment.
                            Comment
                            • jjgold
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-20-05
                              • 388179

                              #15
                              Lines just copy Pinnacle for the most part to avoid exposure

                              It is real simple
                              Comment
                              • Mrtop7
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 08-08-16
                                • 435

                                #16
                                if you want differences in the line look at post time. Not the middle of the week. Need to be in quite a few places.

                                last week houston closed at -2 one place and the other side texas tech had -2.5 .
                                same game ...vegas and offshore.
                                sometimes cris stays open 30 seconds - minute longer that is why they are valuable.
                                Comment
                                • thetrinity
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-25-11
                                  • 22430

                                  #17
                                  i had a very reckless friend who won around 200k in parlays over the bowl season about 10 years ago.

                                  he would bet 10k (his max, these were straight bets) on college basketball and they (a big book) would move the line a half point each time he did it.

                                  it was definitely not sharp action, he of course lost all but enough to pay a semester of his classes.

                                  that was the only time i really got to see behind the curtain

                                  lets be honest, every game and situation is different, as is every book, but they all end up about the same
                                  Comment
                                  • Mrtop7
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 08-08-16
                                    • 435

                                    #18
                                    there is a lot of movement the last 10 minutes till post.. they don't end the same.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      The existence of line services basically eliminated the large variances. Back in the day before they existed, bettors would not know better price was available somewhere else and would accept any line.
                                      Comment
                                      • Mrtop7
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 08-08-16
                                        • 435

                                        #20
                                        not on the closing lines offshore to vegas. if you look now you can see 1 point differences right now on NCAA totals
                                        Comment
                                        • Mrtop7
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 08-08-16
                                          • 435

                                          #21
                                          right now western michigan game 349 caesars -8
                                          draftkings -7
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Mrtop7
                                            not on the closing lines offshore to vegas. if you look now you can see 1 point differences right now on NCAA totals
                                            Unless you are in Vegas, variance between offshore and Vegas is irrelevant. I am talking strictly among the offshore shops.
                                            Comment
                                            • Mrtop7
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 08-08-16
                                              • 435

                                              #23
                                              agree offshore is the same overall
                                              Comment
                                              • LT Profits
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-27-06
                                                • 90963

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Mrtop7
                                                right now western michigan game 349 caesars -8
                                                draftkings -7
                                                That is even worse comparison because you can't bet at both places.

                                                EDIT: Unless DK has shop(s) in Vegas?
                                                Comment
                                                • Mrtop7
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 08-08-16
                                                  • 435

                                                  #25
                                                  why not?

                                                  in new jersey you can
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mrtop7
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 08-08-16
                                                    • 435

                                                    #26
                                                    you outside usa?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Mrtop7
                                                      why not?

                                                      in new jersey you can
                                                      OK, edit my edit to Ceasars in Jersey.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Mrtop7
                                                        you outside usa?
                                                        No I am in PA, I just didn't realize Caesars was in Jersey.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mrtop7
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 08-08-16
                                                          • 435

                                                          #29
                                                          if you are outside USA . better. pinny and matchbook
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mrtop7
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 08-08-16
                                                            • 435

                                                            #30
                                                            did PA open yet ?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mrtop7
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 08-08-16
                                                              • 435

                                                              #31
                                                              you are one of my favorite posters in all of the forums. I like the way you attack the games.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • LT Profits
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-27-06
                                                                • 90963

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Mrtop7
                                                                did PA open yet ?
                                                                Nope, state was demanding excessive taxes on gambling at last check. Frankly not as important to me as it seems to be to many others, I will continue to bet online with -105 juice and more betting options.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Mrtop7
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 08-08-16
                                                                  • 435

                                                                  #33
                                                                  i like heritage and 5dimes , bol, cris outfit myself

                                                                  i agree
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LT Profits
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                                    • 90963

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Mrtop7
                                                                    you are one of my favorite posters in all of the forums. I like the way you attack the games.
                                                                    Aw shucks! How much do I owe you again?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Mrtop7
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 08-08-16
                                                                      • 435

                                                                      #35
                                                                      lol
                                                                      Comment
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