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Ok. Maybe I'm wrong. Let's flesh it out slower.
The lines themselves aren't going to make a big difference.
Say Wild Card is A's +110. Yankees should be favored. Perhaps more than that.
Then Div series say it's Yankees as a dog. Hedge team -140.
Then AL small dog -130 again. Then World Series will be around even. -110.
I believe this is being generous as the Yankees will get a lot of hype and respect if they win.
Bet 100 to win 1050 is the future. Start with down 100.
WC: Bet A's to pay for hedge. 90 to win 100 back. Result: A's - break even (up 10, but whatever)
Div: Start down 100 (future), down 90 (A's hedge). Cost -140 to hedge= 266 @ -140 = 190
Result: Yankees lose. break even. Yankees win, you've spent 266+90+100 = 456.
AL: got to hedge 456 @ -130. That's 593. Result: Yankees lose, even.
WS: You've spent 593 + 456 + 90 + 100(future itself).
payout if Yankees win WS = 1050 + 100 returned. 1150.
1150 - (593+456+90) = 11.
but. now try this. hedge against the hedge.
Bet 100 to win 1050 is the future. Start with down 100.
WC: Bet A's hedge. 90 to win 100 back. Bet Yankees for game @ -120 to pay for A's hedge.
108/90. Result: A's win = lose 98. Yankees win =90-90=0 (future alive)
Div. only need to hedge 100. -140 to win 100. Yankees win. Down 140 +100 future bet. (240)
Yankees lose ? breakeven.
AL: Got to cover 240. odds -130. That's 312. Bet 312 to hedge. Yankees lose, breakeven.
Yankees win? move to WS. You spend 312+140+100 all in all. Pays 1150 back.
1150-(312+140+100) [552] = 598 less original 100 = +498 odds Yankees in world series
just if you expose yourself to a potential loss of 98 in the WC game does that.Comment -
Ok I figured out what I meant all along. If you take the +1050
then let it go unhedged for Wild Card game, you're scooping up around 500
in odds difference because the line will be cut in half. That's a lot better than
just taking the Yankees to beat the A's because if you think they can get to WS
even if you hedge them in Div and AL, you are left with around +500 for WS paid for.Comment -
I am not making sense. There is no way to make the future better than single games or series
without letting it ride for more than 1 step. This is why I don't take futures.
I thought at this high odds there was a way but it doesn't appear to be anymore.
Futures are no good.Comment -
Red Sox bullpen is garbage, I think the value is on Houston to win the ALComment -
Jury still out on him after last night IMO. He did get out of the inning he pitched but his pitches were flat and he had trouble with his 4 seamer that acted like a fastball with no movement. His velo is down also. I think he needs to do what Kershaw did and not rely on his fastball as much and use location and spin the ball. Easier said than done but he's not getting the ball by hitters anymore. We may see Wood in the closer role.Comment -
Yeah, that series is going to be great.
Houston hosts Cleveland in what I think is a dream match up.
This one I'm pumped up for.
These two teams match up pretty much evenly, I think Clevelan wins the best of five 3 games to 2 despite the lack of the home field advantage but it's not going to be easy.
Houston's starters are lethal.
You got Verlander and his 12 K's per nine inning ratio.
You got Garret Cole and his 12.5 K's per nine inning ratio not to mention his stellar 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WH/IP
You got Dallas Keuchel (who's the only starter in this entire series that does not average 9 K's per nine innings)
You got Charlie Morton and his 10.8 K's per nine inning ratio, to go along with his gaudy 15 and 3 record.
Know this front line is loaded.
Cleveland's starting rotation is just as lethal.
You like strike outs? This series is loaded with strike out artists.
Cleveland's ace is Corey Kluber, his K per nine inning ratio is 9.1, with a 2.92 ERA and a WH/UP of 0.98, with a 19 and 7 record.
Then you get Trevor Bauer (just off the DL) and his 11.6 K per nine inning ratio, with an eye popping 2.22 ERA and 1.09 WH/IP
Then you got Mike Clevinger and his 9.4 K per nine inning ratio, a steady ERA of 3.06 and WH/IP of 1.17
Then you got Carlos Carrasco and his 10.5 K per nine inning ratio, ERA of 3.43 and WH/IP of 1.13.
Both teams have high and low points regarding the relievers.
Houston's bullpen ERA leads the majors at 3.01 a full 1 1/2 runs better than the Indians.
Houston's bullpen also leads the majors with a stingy .216 batting average against.
But Houston has blown more saves than the Indians.
Having said all that I don't trust either teams relievers.
On the Indians side Cody Allen used to be one of the best in the business, now he's horse shit.
Dan Otero and Neil Ramirez also are getting whipped like a red headed step child.
The only dependable reliever is old man senior citizen Ollie Perez, but he's just a one batter left handed throwing specialist.
The good thing about the Indians is the outstanding starters all go deep in the game, and don't rely on the bullpen much.
All four of the Indian starters average over 90 pitches a start, with three of them averaging over 100 pitches per start.
The Astros bullpen may lead the league in ERA but I still don't trust them either.
Chris Devinski may lead the team in saves, but he's a long ball home run waiting to happen. You know he's going to serve one up.
Hector Rondon the set up guy gives up too many hits.
I do like Brad Peacock and his 13.4 K per nine inning ratio and 1.12 WH/IP
Colin McHugh has been rock solid out of the bull pen too, with a K per nine inning ratio of 13.6, ERA of 2.12 and WH/IP of 0.91.
Like I said, you like strikeouts? This series has a ton of K artists.
Astros sport 3 starters and every regular reliever averaging more than 9 K's per 9 innings.
All the Indians starters average more then 9 K's9 per innings, and every reliever also with the exception of Otero.
Is it any wonder why Houston and Cleveland are top 5 per in the majors in pitching strike outs.
Here's an interesting tid bit.
Guess which teams strike out the least in the majors.
Astros and Indians.
Both teams are dangerous at bat.
Indians with Brantley batting .306
Lindor is batting .282 with 35 HR's 86 RBI's 41 doubles and 23 steals Speed and power.
Jose Ramirez is having a dream season. Batting .281 38 HR's 36 doubles 33 stolen bases and 102 runs scored. Speed and power again.
Encarnacion has 31 home runs and 99 RBI so far.
Alonso has 23 HR's and 79 RBI's.
Plucking Josh Donaldson from the Blue Jays can be huge.
Depending on which metrics you use, Indians are a top four hitting team in the majors, and can beat you every which way.
As good as the Astros bats are Cleveland actually has a slightly better advantage.
First half of the Astro line up can also kill you in so many ways.
Altuve hits for average, hits for power, and steals bases.
Springer hits for power and steals an occasional base.
Don't sleep on Marwin either.
Bregman is an absolute monster with power numbers of 30 home runs 100 RBI 101 runs scored 50 doubles hitting .289 with a sparkling .398 OBA, if it wasn't for those two dudes in Boston and Jose Ramirez in Cleveland Bregman would be in the MVP mix.
Correa is having a very off year, just .180 (9 for 50) in September but still has an amazing glove at SS.
Gurriel is a legit hit hit machine.
And what's up with Tyler White? Has 12 homers in just 182 at bats ! That pro rates to about 40 HR's if he plays every day. Hits both lefties and right handed pitching equally well.
I like both managers equally Hinch took the Astros to the promised land last season, and Francona took the entire Red Sox nation twice to the promised land, both managers have big time experience, both know how to win.
OK, having said all that, both starting pitching staffs are equally loaded, I don't like either teams bull pens, I think the Indians have a slightly better offense. This series has the potential to be epic.
Just my opinion this is a coin flip pick 'em series, I think the winner of this series wins the World Series.on
I'm all about value, there's almost three times more value at +930 on the Indians then +340 for the Astros.
If I can get +130 or better on this Houston / Cleveland on the Indians like stink on poop.
Not for nothing Oakland is sneaky dangerous, they just hung a 21 burger on the Angels, and can beat anybody in a one and done game.
However if the A's advance they could get by either Cleveland or Houston, Oakland has lost their staff ace Manea until at least 2020. Oakland would have to go with a rotation of Edwin Jackson, Mike Fiers, Trevor Cahill, and Brett Anderson.
That unit is little league pitching to Houston or Cleveland's bats, and Oakland's staff is like 4 light years beneath Houston and Cleveland's big 4.
If I can get say +140 or so on the A's against the Yankees I'll take Oakland.
If Boston beats either New York or Oakland that'll also be a fun series, but I don't think Boston will get past the Indians or Houston.
I'll get back to this post when the National League dust is settled.
I'll say this much the Braves had a miracle season but inexperience in big time games will kill them.
The wild card race is interesting, Three teams fighting for two spots.
Rockies are 1.5 games back (one in the loss column) of the 2nd wild card team Cardinals.
Brewers all but have a play off spot locked up, are three games ahead in that race and three games back of the division leading Cubs.
I think the dark horse Brewers can do some damage.
If the Brews beat (providing they get in) Cards in a one and done play in game I can see Milwaukee beating the Cubs in the next round.
Nothing is settled yet though in the NL, I'll get back to this post in a few days.
Right now I like the Indians to win it allComment -
The Red Sox have won 104 games under Alex Cora, the 2nd-highest total for a team behind a rookie manager. The 1961 Yankees won 109 games under Ralph Houk.Comment -
Thx for posting Nash
wow tyComment -
A legit chance Rockies will steal the div from dodgers
they Finnish w 7 at hm
dodgers last 6 on the roadComment -
Mil-Stl-LAD-Colo 4-way tie would be fun.Comment -
Daaaaaa Rockies for my sleeper/value pick. Count it!Comment -
way more excited for this than these crappy nfl games and ncaa blowoutsComment -
The only team with odds longer than Baseball Prospectus' World Series odds is the Braves. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
That was enough evidence for me to take a small chance in the pointbook and IRL.Comment -
Well rocks get the w
id say 5050 they beat or tie the dodgersComment -
Well it's
dodgers -500
field +400
is home field worth nothing in baseballComment -
Correct to win the div
if dodgers lost today it would go along wayComment -
Rockies win again
cards and dodgers lose
gonna b very interesting
likely a tie breaker gmComment -
Another dback win would b huge for rocks
I think cards win tonight to stay in itComment -
I JUST want lad outComment -
Dbagsss tied it
Rockies seem destined to win the westComment -
Rockies +1800 would sure look good now. Hottest team in baseball, they'll probably overtake the Dodgers. If so, they should probably be NL favorites. They may very well go in on a 9-game win streak,Comment
