So you think winning long term is impossible?

[dante1]

more likely to be limited than booted, but if someone has $10 limits that is essentially being booted

the object of a business is to maximize profits if these run of the mill books are tossing a guy who wins once in a while that is not good business. I had a bookie eliminate me because I won two weeks in a row, that is a true story. his wife told me they don't want winners. lol

I have seen it with my own two eyes my friends, almost nobody wins, and I am not writing about a few dozen people. Through the years hundreds of people gambled at the store my partner and I ran. Believe it or don't believe it.

having said that, is it possible. of course, it is possible but it is rare no it is extremely rare. long time winners, basically meaning lifetime winners in sports betting are as rare as a dodo bird.

[danshan11]

that is usually people that chase steam or stale lines, they dont like stale line chasers, wonder why??? hmmm maybe because lines mean something, maybe it has nothing to do with picking winners just lines? maybe that is why they dont like steam chasers

[dante1]

that is usually people that chase steam or stale lines, they dont like stale line chasers, wonder why??? hmmm maybe because lines mean something, maybe it has nothing to do with picking winners just lines? maybe that is why they dont like steam chasers

I could be wrong about this because I personally have no real connection to offshore books. However, intuitively I would guess that the better books, the real action books seldom if ever eliminate an occasional winner. and if they do it is my opinion they are making a business error. I can see limiting a players action, locals do that all the time. books naturally want you to play as many pieces as possible, every time you increase your action by even one play you give them a better vig. this is common sense. so if one hot player is steaming action in on one game or two and he is hurting them it makes sense to limit him. but, I believe the better books wouldn't even do that, but as I wrote I have no exact knowledge of this and I may be wrong.

also what I write about this subject is certainly my personal opinion. It is backed by observation, common sense and math. Add to that the fact that I have never met any individual that I can state unequivocally is a long-term winner. Milw Mike thinks I am wrong and that is fine, maybe I am wrong. I simply need proof, when I see the proof that a few people consistently beat the book for years and years then I will change my mind.

[dante1]

let me add that when I and my partner thought we had too much action on one game we laid it off to another book. you know what my friends, in my weak memory I seem to remember always paying the other book, meaning those hot/hammered teams usually lost. maybe it was just a coincidence but that seems to be true to me.

we had one very big book in town, probably 10 to 20 times the action we had because we were a cash book he was a phone book. So one day I was speaking to a kid that worked for him, and this kid actually said often when that book had a too heavy side they (the partners) actually bet the other side. Yeah, how about that, they didn't lay it off but they purposefully played the other side. that too is a true story.

[milwaukee mike]

the object of a business is to maximize profits if these run of the mill books are tossing a guy who wins once in a while that is not good business. I had a bookie eliminate me because I won two weeks in a row, that is a true story. his wife told me they don't want winners. lol

I have seen it with my own two eyes my friends, almost nobody wins, and I am not writing about a few dozen people. Through the years hundreds of people gambled at the store my partner and I ran. Believe it or don't believe it.

having said that, is it possible. of course, it is possible but it is rare no it is extremely rare. long time winners, basically meaning lifetime winners in sports betting are as rare as a dodo bird.

i realize that almost nobody wins, especially the losers you were taking bets from

but that doesn't mean there are only a handful of lifetime winners, thousands of people gamble professionally

i'm pretty sure you weren't taking small market soccer, props, etc. where the lines aren't sharp

and there are tons of bets with value available all over the board at major sportsbooks every day

[dante1]

i realize that almost nobody wins, especially the losers you were taking bets from

but that doesn't mean there are only a handful of lifetime winners, thousands of people gamble professionally

i'm pretty sure you weren't taking small market soccer, props, etc. where the lines aren't sharp

and there are tons of bets with value available all over the board at major sportsbooks every day

Mike, you might be correct, and that is your opinion. and I don't mean to be a wise guy but how many of these people do you personally know, I have been around gamblers for decades and I would be hard pressed to name one. It is easy to call people losers, IMO they are all losers. If you have not been around 100's of gamblers on a daily basis what makes you believe what you believe? It is your intuition or do you have some facts, again not attempting to be a smart ass and that has to be explained when you are communicating via text or forum.

also, I would guess that you are younger than 40, am I correct?

[milwaukee mike]

Mike, you might be correct, and that is your opinion. and I don't mean to be a wise guy but how many of these people do you personally know, I have been around gamblers for decades and I would be hard pressed to name one. It is easy to call people losers, IMO they are all losers. If you have not been around 100's of gamblers on a daily basis what makes you believe what you believe? It is your intuition or do you have some facts, again not attempting to be a smart ass and that has to be explained when you are communicating via text or forum.

also, I would guess that you are younger than 40, am I correct?

no i am older than 40... cpa that owns my own business

have met enough professional gamblers to know that they exist lol

even bonus whores, scalpers, etc can be considered "professional"... tell me how someone is gonna lose money in this scenario

deposit at bookmaker, take a 100% bonus, bet something at -120
deposit somewhere else, take a bonus, bet the other side at +120

[PhillipKessel]

no i am older than 40... cpa that owns my own business

have met enough professional gamblers to know that they exist lol

even bonus whores, scalpers, etc can be considered "professional"... tell me how someone is gonna lose money in this scenario

deposit at bookmaker, take a 100% bonus, bet something at -120
deposit somewhere else, take a bonus, bet the other side at +120

Because now you have to satisfy at rollover both places ...

[dante1]

no i am older than 40... cpa that owns my own business

have met enough professional gamblers to know that they exist lol

even bonus whores, scalpers, etc can be considered "professional"... tell me how someone is gonna lose money in this scenario

deposit at bookmaker, take a 100% bonus, bet capitals to win nhl east at +1025
deposit at 5dimes, take a bonus, bet NOT capitals to win nhl east at -880

and i just grabbed that line because i'm looking at futures, there are plenty of ways to scalp on a daily basis

you know after I made that comment I saw the badges you have for trivia and since I know question three sometimes goes back decades I then realized you are probably not a kid. or using SIRI, (that is a joke, I bust one guy's balls who attempted to cheat)

that is a nice play, good for you. I imagine with hard work, diligence and patience a smart player could find great plays and that would definitely help the bottom line.

good luck to you, I hope you find yourself in that 1% of lifetime winners, actually I wish that for everybody. but naturally, that can't happen.

[milwaukee mike]

you know after I made that comment I saw the badges you have for trivia and since I know question three sometimes goes back decades I then realized you are probably not a kid. or using SIRI, (that is a joke, I bust one guy's balls who attempted to cheat)

that is a nice play, good for you. I imagine with hard work, diligence and patience a smart player could find great plays and that would definitely help the bottom line.

good luck to you, I hope you find yourself in that 1% of lifetime winners, actually I wish that for everybody. but naturally, that can't happen.

well if you ask around you'll find that many posters here have been quite successful, and personally i already have more $ than i can ever spend... wish i had better health rather than more money at this point

[dante1]

well if you ask around you'll find that many posters here have been quite successful, and personally i already have more $ than i can ever spend... wish i had better health rather than more money at this point

exactly right, health is number one. It is certainly a cliche and we didn't think much about it when we were a youngster, but omg money without health is nothing. I must have heard that 1000 times when I was a kid but never gave it much attention.

[danshan11]

I dont know any long term winners, I have never met one in person or online. I personally probably would not consider someone a lifetime winner by the same standards some people use here.
I would need to see 1000s of records and I would only care about line value I could care less about wins and losses. I have never ever met one yet. I thought DrH was when I seen his record before this year but once I smartened up and learned about deviations and variance that was all smoke. Even people beating the lines I dont trust because most of them are popping the lines themselves by selling picks. I am shocked how little the amount of money it takes to really move a line. The thing is these guys pumping lines they cant do it on enough games to make the lines overall not efficient.

[PAULYPOKER]

Too many variables in just one single game to be successful as anything can happen.........
Add betting ATS chalk to the equation makes it much harder to win
consistently no matter what side you take,even if you wait for the
"right"number that only you think has value.........

[milwaukee mike]

I dont know any long term winners, I have never met one in person or online. I personally probably would not consider someone a lifetime winner by the same standards some people use here.
I would need to see 1000s of records and I would only care about line value I could care less about wins and losses. I have never ever met one yet. I thought DrH was when I seen his record before this year but once I smartened up and learned about deviations and variance that was all smoke. Even people beating the lines I dont trust because most of them are popping the lines themselves by selling picks. I am shocked how little the amount of money it takes to really move a line. The thing is these guys pumping lines they cant do it on enough games to make the lines overall not efficient.

you met dante here online, yes he was on the other side of the counter but still up lifetime

and alfa, there's no way he's down lifetime with those kinds of bets

so that makes at least 2... people that sell picks are long-term winners... they are scumbags but still ahead overall in the gambling biz

[milwaukee mike]

i'll give you guys a tip, check out live betting at bookmaker... for nfl tv games they have "yes/no overturn call" bets on challenges/reviews

last night on godwin's catch, the yes overturn hovered between +200 and +380, and anyone watching closely could see his foot hit the shoulder

so you could pound bets in at $300 per... easily get 4 in at an average of +300, that's $1200 to win $3600 on something that should've been at least -300 rather than +300

where else is someone gonna make an easy $3600 in a minute... but like dante's customers, 99% will never do it, they would rather bet something dumb like tampa -1 that is just a coin flip at -110 odds

[u21c3f6]

let me add that when I and my partner thought we had too much action on one game we laid it off to another book. you know what my friends, in my weak memory I seem to remember always paying the other book, meaning those hot/hammered teams usually lost. maybe it was just a coincidence but that seems to be true to me.

we had one very big book in town, probably 10 to 20 times the action we had because we were a cash book he was a phone book. So one day I was speaking to a kid that worked for him, and this kid actually said often when that book had a too heavy side they (the partners) actually bet the other side. Yeah, how about that, they didn't lay it off but they purposefully played the other side. that too is a true story.

I absolutely believe the above two stories because they both make sense to me and coincide with my own experience.

The bottom line is (and I know I am pissing in the wind to most of you) that not all lines are 50/50.

Joe.

[dante1]

I absolutely believe the above two stories because they both make sense to me and coincide with my own experience.

The bottom line is (and I know I am pissing in the wind to most of you) that not all lines are 50/50.

Joe.

yep, they are true stories, what sense does it make to tell BS stories to strangers on a gambling forum, you need to be half fckin nuts.


not sure I know what you mean by not all lines are 50/50, does that mean that they don't get 50/50 action, or something different. sorry just don't understand it.

[danshan11]

he is saying he has an edge over the line on some games, lots of people believe that and the books are not going to disagree with them that is for sure but the evidence contrary to this is blatant and obvious it is not even worth discussing honestly. but anyway winning long term is hard shit
A you need to crush the line
B you need to do it 100s of times per day to overcome variance or you can wait 2 lifetimes to see any profits from your edge

[danshan11]

i'll give you guys a tip, check out live betting at bookmaker... for nfl tv games they have "yes/no overturn call" bets on challenges/reviews

last night on godwin's catch, the yes overturn hovered between +200 and +380, and anyone watching closely could see his foot hit the shoulder

so you could pound bets in at $300 per... easily get 4 in at an average of +300, that's $1200 to win $3600 on something that should've been at least -300 rather than +300

where else is someone gonna make an easy $3600 in a minute... but like dante's customers, 99% will never do it, they would rather bet something dumb like tampa -1 that is just a coin flip at -110 odds

that is very cool but man i dont trust those reviews, they mess them up often, I ahve seen this season 3 or 4 bad calls on review, I cant recall them specifically but they do penetrate up these calls

[dante1]

he is saying he has an edge over the line on some games, lots of people believe that and the books are not going to disagree with them that is for sure but the evidence contrary to this is blatant and obvious it is not even worth discussing honestly. but anyway winning long term is hard shit
A you need to crush the line
B you need to do it 100s of times per day to overcome variance or you can wait 2 lifetimes to see any profits from your edge

got it, I should have realized that. thanks

[danshan11]

you know for me the hardest thing is I dont trust anything.
I believe in something and then I am like forget that, that is just variance. I talk to a few experts and they tend to agree its variance.
I go crazy with this business because I really want to do well and up to this point, I have not and I really do appreciate and respect the level of difficulty.

[flakeandbake]

I had one very good year in baseball using basically line movement, but then the door closed and it ended. I thought I found a real deal, line movement games seemed to be winning at a very high rate. I couldn't wait to find line movement in baseball and I did very well for months, but it came to a screeching halt.

so many times players think they found a gimmick, a sure fire way to win, sometimes it works for a while simply because of various reasons that usually have nothing to do with their gimmick. I at one time spent hours trying to handicap one game, sitting down with stats and this and that and it becomes almost overbearing. but, I loved doing it, I thought I had an advantage. usually, I had a big pile of crap.

100% how I feel right now with trying to pick a single baseball game. Luckily I've switched focus. I remember those baseball days lol.

I'll re-evaluate in the playoffs though

[PAULYPOKER]

The funniest thing I hear is posters who say I got a great value on my wager and it is the right
side win or lose..........

[flakeandbake]

interesting subject guys, my advise is to talk to old-time bookies, but they are becoming rare. however, make sure they are out of the game because every single one that I knew lies, they all would tell you how much they are losing. It is all BS. I have heard so many old time bookies claim they must be the only bookie who loses. It is BS none of them lose unless they are total idiots and even the total idiots win.

Being a bookie really isn't (shouldn't be) that easy and a lot more complicated / various risks I would assume. One being risk of delinquents. On the other hand, I feel like there's so many "bookies" / "agents" out there who think being a bookie is just like planting a tree in the forrest - when it's green they collect and when they owe $ they just wait to collect from other losers on the week or once the book goes red. It's like dude idc what your other clients are doing - it should always be a 1-on-1 relationship.

[danshan11]

The funniest thing I hear is posters who say I got a great value on my wager and it is the right
side win or lose..........

can you elaborate on this, I will give you my 2 cents the right side to me is having line value and of course I want to win. I prefer to win to beating the line but I know that I cant win long term if I dont beat the line but shit brother I dont mind being fricking lucky and winning ten in a row!

[flakeandbake]

I am not a soccer fan or a fan of betting small markets but your picks seem interesting in terms of results. I would recommend experimenting your picks using the 3% compounding money management strategy. It can do magic to the bankroll as long as your picks doesn't wet the bed too much. Just download the spreadsheet in that money management, clear the log and try plugging in all your completed picks to see how the bank would have grown.

I set up something similar but totally different as an experiment and I think it's a great idea:

I gave my friend $1,000 cash and about 5 rules to follow and he bets for me on the side. I make all the picks and take on 100% of the risk, I just have to text him to put in the bets. In return I give him 20% of the profits. All he has to do is put the plays in and follow the rules.

Investment = 1,000

Rules for the first 6 weeks this season - I can only bet College Football and NFL period

College Football:
1. Only allowed to bet NCAFF on Saturday
2. Limit 1-3 games
3. Max wager $200
4. No over / unders yet

NFL Football:
1. Can bet any NFL game
2. 1-5 games
3. Max wager $300
4. No over / unders yet

My guy is a decent sports better himself and extremely quick / good at finding the best line on various books when I ask. But even if he wasn't I still think this is a good plan for anyone who feels like they are decent pickers but struggle with discipline issues or tilt or whatever it is.
Simply put, I just felt like I step on my own shoes sometimes and wanted some exposure to an actual system.

[danshan11]

I set up something similar but totally different as an experiment and I think it's a great idea:

I gave my friend $1,000 cash and about 5 rules to follow and he bets for me on the side. I make all the picks and take on 100% of the risk, I just have to text him to put in the bets. In return I give him 20% of the profits. All he has to do is put the plays in and follow the rules.

Investment = 1,000

Rules for the first 6 weeks this season - I can only bet College Football and NFL period

College Football:
1. Only allowed to bet NCAFF on Saturday
2. Limit 1-3 games
3. Max wager $200
4. No over / unders yet

NFL Football:
1. Can bet any NFL game
2. 1-5 games
3. Max wager $300
4. No over / unders yet

My guy is a decent sports better himself and extremely quick / good at finding the best line on various books when I ask. But even if he wasn't I still think this is a good plan for anyone who feels like they are decent pickers but struggle with discipline issues or tilt or whatever it is.
Simply put, I just felt like I step on my own shoes sometimes and wanted some exposure to an actual system.

why do you do this? what is the reasoning?

[PAULYPOKER]

Betting on spreads is all but guaranteeing you'll lose as they are 50% odds period........

Bet on +money wagers or nothing.......

Keep juice out of your diet and you'll have a fighting chance.............

[flakeandbake]

The funniest thing I hear is posters who say I got a great value on my wager and it is the right
side win or lose..........

I have a quote I use and I think it's pretty accurate (I'm sure Pauly would agree). It's "Never use the word value when describing a play." "And if I hear someone use the word value in their analysis, it's a fade."

Seriously think about how square that sounds... someone saying "ah man, it's just great value". 9 times out of 10, the "value" they are seeing is because they're on the wrong side and someone else is moving the line up on the other side.

One thing I try to do is look at the entire board and then look at what just looks "too obvious" or "value" or "exciting" or "oooo" and then I'll look up the % of the tickets being placed on that bet. 6-7 times out of 10, when I find something that looks too good to be true in my own eyes and the public is also on it - the opposite is usually worth looking into (especially if the line is reversing). When I fade what I just described - the more nervous I get about fading this "exciting" play that even I myself may like - the better it seems to do. There is certainly such thing as "good odds" and there are some people who actually do understand the meaning of "value" but I've actually done well fading people when I hear that word.

[flakeandbake]

Betting on spreads is all but guaranteeing you'll lose as they are 50% odds period........

Bet on +money wagers or nothing.......

Keep juice out of your diet and you'll have a fighting chance.............

That is absolutely absurd to say. You cannot be serious. Try betting a 10 point under dog and the money line and seeing them up 20 to 10 at half, and then its 20 to 17 with 10 mins left in the 4th quarter. You'd be sweating it out with this theory vs. essentially locking up $. The correct play would be something like $300 on the spread and then 100-300 on the money line depending how confident you were. You could also try something like - $100 spread, 50 money line, and 50 1st half spread in that situation.

Even if you bet favorites - what's the point of laying 500 to win 200 on a money only every time? There's so many different plays scenarios, open-parlays, teasers, live lines, 1st half to work a bet than "money line only"

[milwaukee mike]

that is very cool but man i dont trust those reviews, they mess them up often, I ahve seen this season 3 or 4 bad calls on review, I cant recall them specifically but they do penetrate up these calls

of course the refs mess up some of the reviews, that's why I said it should be -300 instead of -3000000

live betting presents tons of opportunities, if you're finding sports betting tough then take the low hanging fruit of bonuses, props, and live bets

keep an open mind and open eyes

[flakeandbake]

why do you do this? what is the reasoning?

The reasoning is discipline. I like having my own account as well but sometimes find myself doing the stupidest things. The advantage with my own account is that when I am right I'm going to make a shit ton of $ and don't have to answer to anyone (probably my style - I'm super aggressive when I'm confident and understand how to scale). But what about when it's just a 50/50 game and I myself know I should step away? I just do not have the discipline or self control. I cannot even tell you the amount of times that I have been up $1,000 only to end the week negative. And I don't mind losing $ on my real plays but I'm talking about absolutely blowing up. Watching main plays go 6-2 and being negative, or watching small $ being won on real plays b/c I dicked around during the week and low on buying power.

Another thing I have done is that now I only bet in cash. If I have an account - it's a cash account with a real bookie (if you're allowed to say that). Theoretically the $ is written off right off the bat - and I can cash out whenever I want as long as it's not more than twice a week. This way I don't have the Monday morning pressure if I'm down for the week. This way if I'm down but my account auto resets with credit I'm not doing something I shouldn't. Idk why but I learned I just cannot handle credit accounts mentally. But actually have been even and now up $ ever since I started doing only cash.

Another example - I have bet the NFL playoffs extremely well over the years. I was on the Birds last year, I was on the Broncos, I was on the Ravens that year they won (decent amount of wild cards through super bowl). I also have lost 1,400 to win 1,000 and even higher juice both Patriots loses to the Giants where I thought that the Patriots were a total lock (those are the losses I can go to sleep at night). My point is I can pick winners and I am life time negative b/c of myself. Even last week I won 500 on MNF and next thing you know I'm actually down on the week on dumb little baseball bets (notice how those rules are football only) and luckily made everything back in football to finish positive. Simply put, I'm tired of penetrating myself and starting to listen to my P/L.

[flakeandbake]

I consider the term Professional Gambler to be an oxymoron. If you're truly a Professional... you're not a Gambler.

Exactly

[u21c3f6]

he is saying he has an edge over the line on some games, lots of people believe that and the books are not going to disagree with them that is for sure but the evidence contrary to this is blatant and obvious it is not even worth discussing honestly. but anyway winning long term is hard shit
A you need to crush the line
B you need to do it 100s of times per day to overcome variance or you can wait 2 lifetimes to see any profits from your edge

Danshan, I would have thought by now that your own spreadsheet would make you at least give a little consideration to the possibility that not all lines are 50/50. But of course the one and only answer that is always given for the poor showing is variance. It is not variance. When you make non-random selections, those selections do not necessarily mimic the aggregate.

Your selections mimic the stories told by dante1, where you are on the over bet side (regardless of whether or not you beat the closer) making the other side under bet from a winning % point of view (again, not 50/50).

I would further assume that anyone claiming to win because of BTCL, actually has something going for them in addition. Otherwise, if you firmly believe that all lines are 50/50, then after a decent sample you should not make any profit on wagers that did not BTCL and you should only make the % you BTCL on the wagers that BTCL. Any other result only proves that not all lines are 50/50.

Thousands of wagers waiting for your edge to show? If my edge didn't show well before thousands of wagers I would certainly at least consider that what I thought was an edge is not and/or would definitely be on to something else.

I cannot prove this to you, only your own results can do that. If you believe that BTCL is the only way to profit but you can't show a profit, why wouldn't one at least begin to consider something else?

What I find surprising are those that follow a method that produces losses greater than throwing darts but still support that method. Doesn't make any sense to me.

Joe.

[danshan11]

of course the refs mess up some of the reviews, that's why I said it should be -300 instead of -3000000

live betting presents tons of opportunities, if you're finding sports betting tough then take the low hanging fruit of bonuses, props, and live bets

keep an open mind and open eyes

I have not learned how to calculate value fast enough for live betting. I cannot even handle ATS lines