Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague U21 2 at 2.2
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Sporting VS Maritimo X2 at 4.65Comment -
Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2 at 1.8Comment -
Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1 at 2.4Comment -
Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2 at 3.2Comment -
Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1 at 1.95Comment -
Necaxa VS Leon 2 at 3.55Comment -
Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell Reserves 1 at 1.55Comment -
Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1.5 at 5.2Comment -
Wattens VS Wacker Innsbruck II X2 at 2.03Comment -
I stand by my comments I made over a dozen years ago, winning long-term is nearly impossible. And I am not pulling this crap out of my arse, I as most of you know, have had decades of experience taking action. No individual wins long term. I am not writing about a season or maybe even a year but even a year is a very long and very rare win streak.
Is it possible that a rare individual can win very long-term, yes of course, but I have never witnessed it. We seldom had a losing week in college or pro foot, almost never. I had Saturdays and Sunday action in which no one individual won money. They won individual pieces but since most gamblers have to play 10 or 12 or even 20 pieces the chance of those guys winning is slim and none.
I am very willing to say, it is possible. However, I want to see it. You claim to be a long-term winner, show it to me. Post your plays for one year and if you win for one year I congratulate you and say you are a champ. Many have tried on this very forum and all have crapped in their pants.
And you are right JG it is an oxymoron.Comment -
what makes it impossible in your opinion? I mean we know the roulette table has 37 spots and only pays out 35 to 1, it is simple to see how you probably wont win long term but sports betting if you have an edge over the closing line how could you not win just like the roulette table?Comment -
Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1 at 4.0Comment -
Done for the day. Update, up 17.48 units so far but a big bunch still open.
22/sep Yeni Malatayaspor VS Rizespor 2 3,81 -1 Madrid VS Raye Vallecano Women X2 2,5 1,5 Torpedo VS Gomel 1X 1,33 0,33 DPMM Brunei VS Tampines BTS 1,52 0,52 Peterhead VS Berwick BTS 2,31 -1 BK 46 VS Musa Pori 1x 3,05 -1 akranes Vs Throttur Reykjavic X2 2,8 1,8 Honka VS TPS Women X2 6,2 -1 Botev Vratsa VS CSKA Sofia BTSN 1,73 0,73 Kelanta VS Sabah 1 2,1 1,1 DPMM Brunei VS Tampines 1x 1,84 0,84 Man United VS Wolves Unt wins by 1 3,85 -1 Rabotnicki Skopje VS Vardar Skopje x2 2,79 1,79 Greuter Furth VS Hamburg 2 2,45 Caernarfon VS Llanelli 1 1,75 0,75 Njardvik VS Selfoss 1 2,1 1,1 Aris VS Dynamo Tbilisi 1 min 19,5 1,85 0,85 Lillehammer VS Stavanger 2 2,15 1,15 Votuporanguense VS Batatais X2 2,75 -1 Alebrijes oaxaca VS Dorados X2 1,92 -1 23/sep Universidad VS Colunga 2 2,2 1,2 Barcelona VS Girona BTS 2,15 1,15 Dynamo Minsk VS Luch Minsk X2 3,8 -1 Albirex VS Hougang BTS 2,95 1,95 Rosengard VS Kristianstadt Women X2 2,99 -1 Akzhaiyk VS Astana 1X 3,05 -1 GBK Kokkola VS kufu 98 X2 3,05 -1 Dynamo Kiev VS Desna X2 5,75 -1 Ilves Tampereen VS Pallokissat Women X2 3,2 -1 HJK Helsinki VS Jypk Women X2 6,5 -1 Prykarpattya VS Volochysk 2 3,58 -1 Vita Hasten VS Bjorkloven 2 2,2 -1 24/sep Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2 1,8 Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X 4,05 Shanghai VS Xinjian X2 3,75 -1 Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2 2,2 1,2 Sporting VS Maritimo X2 4,65 Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2 1,8 -1 Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1 2,4 -1 Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2 3,2 Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1 1,95 Necaxa VS Leon 2 3,55 Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1 1,55 0,55 Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5 5,2 Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II 2,03 2,03 Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1 4 17,48 Comment -
I can only evaluate by my experiences, along with my experiences I know the math. So simple example which I am sure you know, let's say you play four games on a Sunday. That isn't many for most players, most punters (in my experience play many more). The mathematical chance of having a great Sunday and winning all four is 1/16 not counting ties. One out of 16 is not a good deal. If you get lucky you hit 3 and that is good. More than likely most of the time you will be praying the last game hits so you can split--and lose.
Now, I didn't say it is impossible, I think it is next to impossible to have a long run, meaning at least a year. I have never witnessed that in more than two decades booking and much longer playing. I have had winning seasons that is for sure. And I am up in sports betting, but not because I personally am a winner, it is only because the players are mostly losers and I made a bunch of big money most years. However, many years I gave it all back by betting myself.Comment -
one more comment, maybe just maybe RAS is one of those very rare guys that does have a long winning streak. I bought his picks twice and I believe he did win, not much but he won. But his cost is almost prohibitive unless you have no problem laying at least 1000 on each pick. and when I had his service it was difficult to get the correct line.
I don't know how he is doing lately, is he still moving the line. That is one way an individual can claim he is a winner. If the books respect a tout enough to move the lines, that is the guy I respect. How many asshole touts are out there claiming they win every year--it is total BS. that is another way check out the REAL records of these touts. One year a guy does decent the next year he sucks. Plus, many of them lie and twist the figures and do every dishonest thing in the book to convince young kids they win. If you actually do your homework, very few of them win and very few win constantly.
another perfect example, I did pretty well last year in BTP, every person that congratulated me I said watch next year I will stink up the place and that is exactly what is happening. It is just too difficult to win constantly. I would love to know how many BTP winners, let us say in the top 20 have been consistently in the top 20. If there is a guy on this forum playing BTP and he has been in the top 20 for oh let's say 8 out of 10 years. He is the exception I am talking about.Comment -
see I think here is the problem and of course most people dont like to talk about this so they disregard me or call me stupid
Problem 1 thinking you are smarter than the closing line- this problem is what most people do and win or lose this formula will take your money long term.
Problem 2 Variance- most people call out Line beaters and say see he did not win but the sample size is so small like 1000-2000 records that is nothing. PInnacle does not win on 4 out of 10 of their 1000 sample sizes and that is with a margin.
Only way to win is HUGE HUGE sample size and to be consistently beating the line.
Real problem with that
how the heck does a guy in his bedroom do this, you cant build a model for 1000s of games a day and you even if you could how do you get down at a high enough stake to make it worth it.
so here comes back to what you said win 2 out of 4 and lose a little, that is what everyone does that cant generate a huge sample size 100s of games daily and beat the line consistently on those games, so yes in theory it is impossible to win!Comment -
you're not stupid, you are sharp, very sharp.
I think problem 1 is very valid. when I was a kid and friends told me about betting baseball and how it works I thought omg this is easy, I don't need to work. yep, the first week I lost 500 and I was just a kid. also, via my booking, I learned that many punters are former athletes, either in HS, college or pro. In fact, I had two pros who gambled in my shop, a former NFL tight end which many of you would know, and a pitcher for the Cardinals, which few of you would know. Former jocks think they have an edge in gambling, they think they know the game and they do know the game, but they don't know gambling. they lose just like everybody else.
sample size is very important also, the guy who finally does build a near perfect model might become an overnight billionaire.Comment -
The thing is, Vegas, or any other books will tell you that they only want equal action on both sides so they can bank
the 10%. But we all know they win MUCH more than that.
The point is, that yes, maybe 2% of the gamblers out there have a positive "Lifetime" winning record on bets,
but the other 98% are losers. What side do you want to be on?Comment -
right, I have been aware of this for decades, but I love to gamble on sports. so instead of losing tens of thousands a year, I am satisfied to bet much smaller and lose maybe a thousand or two. doesn't bother me because it is one of my only vices, don't smoke, rarely drink and running around is no longer a big deal. btw, the same rush is available for me betting small than large, the difference is now I am seasoned, and I no longer throw the remote at the TV.
I like so many seasoned players have seen so many different ways to lose a game it no longer bothers me, in fact, I usually laugh when I lose a game I should have won. seriously, I do. you are winning a piece the entire game, your team is outplaying them by huge margins and something weird happens in the last minute and you lose. it is the only time you are losing the game, that would make an unseasoned player very angry.
many many years ago when they changed the rules in football OT I lost a game which I still think is my very worst bad loss. My team was getting 9 or 10. the game goes into OT and I think good I can't lose this game. I didn't know the rules properly, the other team scores and goes up by 7, my team turns the ball over and it is returned for a TD, I lose. that was the way the rules were written in those days, today that can't happen if a ball is turned over in that same scenario the game is auto over. even if it is returned for a TD that score doesn't count. but in the first year, it happened and it happened to me. I was fckin wild.Comment -
I feel like if I go back over my betting that I do well in certain sports, during certain times of the year - when a lot of $ / tickets are bet on a game. Most people will argue that the most $ to be made is in the opposite situations where less is known about a matchup. But I don't know enough about sports to be able to know that. Instead I use line movement and think that's why I only do well when big $ / interest is on a game because it's easier to trust line movement
For example, I did pretty decent at baseball early in the season and right after allstar beeak - but I cannot pick a baseball game worth shit right now towards the end of the year and I think that's because big $ / sharp $ is focused on football. I know big $ doesn't always = sharp $ but stillComment -
I had one very good year in baseball using basically line movement, but then the door closed and it ended. I thought I found a real deal, line movement games seemed to be winning at a very high rate. I couldn't wait to find line movement in baseball and I did very well for months, but it came to a screeching halt.
so many times players think they found a gimmick, a sure fire way to win, sometimes it works for a while simply because of various reasons that usually have nothing to do with their gimmick. I at one time spent hours trying to handicap one game, sitting down with stats and this and that and it becomes almost overbearing. but, I loved doing it, I thought I had an advantage. usually, I had a big pile of crap.Comment -
interesting subject guys, my advise is to talk to old-time bookies, but they are becoming rare. however, make sure they are out of the game because every single one that I knew lies, they all would tell you how much they are losing. It is all BS. I have heard so many old time bookies claim they must be the only bookie who loses. It is BS none of them lose unless they are total idiots and even the total idiots win.Comment -
that is because they take bets from idiots
if it weren't possible to win long-term then why does anyone get limited/booted from online sportsbooks?
i posted a thread once telling people to take brooklyn nets to score first every game when brook lopez was winning every tip... they scored first 21 times in a row and were an underdog pretty much every time
so there are things out there to bet on, other than nfl sides/totalsComment -
I am not a soccer fan or a fan of betting small markets but your picks seem interesting in terms of results. I would recommend experimenting your picks using the 3% compounding money management strategy. It can do magic to the bankroll as long as your picks doesn't wet the bed too much. Just download the spreadsheet in that money management, clear the log and try plugging in all your completed picks to see how the bank would have grown.Comment -
I honestly never met someone who got kicked out of a book for anything more than being a pain in the ass, shady ************ or some other BS. Most of the time if they do its syndicate betting and syndicate betting is real and alive and profitable. Syndicates do exactly what i said bet millions on tons of games that have value and that is a profitable methodComment
I consider the term Professional Gambler to be an oxymoron. If you're truly a Professional... you're not a Gambler.
