2 Big Bets for Week 1 College Football

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  • thomorino
    Restricted User
    • 06-01-17
    • 45842

    #1
    2 Big Bets for Week 1 College Football
    I had a good year in college football last year, finishing strong, I like Michigan at -1.5 and the under in Miami-LSU at 48.

    Michigan returns most of a solid defense and the team has good talent and upper classmen at all 3 levels of the defense. Patterson should be a big upgrade over what the team has had at QB and ND's defense was very mediocre last year and his mobility should help Michigan a lot. ND loses 2 all-american offensive linemen and their QB play got exposed late last year. Wimbush looks like he will start week 1, and he's been very mediocre.

    Rozier is a senior but he was garbage against good defenses last year, completing less than 50% of his passes against top level defenses. LSU's front 7 will be strong and they have a top corner and good young talent in the secondary, Miami was also much better at home last year. LSU's offense should start slow, they will start transfer QB Burrow from Ohio State who was not a 5 star recruit out of college and has thrown less than 40 passes in his college career, and LSU will likely be very conservative on offense early. I think both teams will want to be conservative offensively and not committ turnovers.
  • A Quant
    SBR MVP
    • 05-14-18
    • 1357

    #2
    Originally posted by thomorino
    I had a good year in college football last year, finishing strong, I like Michigan at -1.5 and the under in Miami-LSU at 48.

    Michigan returns most of a solid defense and the team has good talent and upper classmen at all 3 levels of the defense. Patterson should be a big upgrade over what the team has had at QB and ND's defense was very mediocre last year and his mobility should help Michigan a lot. ND loses 2 all-american offensive linemen and their QB play got exposed late last year. Wimbush looks like he will start week 1, and he's been very mediocre.

    Rozier is a senior but he was garbage against good defenses last year, completing less than 50% of his passes against top level defenses. LSU's front 7 will be strong and they have a top corner and good young talent in the secondary, Miami was also much better at home last year. LSU's offense should start slow, they will start transfer QB Burrow from Ohio State who was not a 5 star recruit out of college and has thrown less than 40 passes in his college career, and LSU will likely be very conservative on offense early. I think both teams will want to be conservative offensively and not committ turnovers.
    I am on the fence with Shea Patterson and Michigan. Food for thought.

    In Patterson's 5 games against Power 65 teams, he threw 14 TDs and had 11 INTS, his QBR was 49, and he was sacked 16 times. Notre Dame's defense was Top 30 in S&P+ with a very young defense. ND did a solid job last year on defense against Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, they wore down late. Agree with you on Wimbush, until he shows me, I am suspicious.

    I have the game as a "No Play". Best of luck on it, hope you cash it.
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    • thomorino
      Restricted User
      • 06-01-17
      • 45842

      #3
      Originally posted by A Quant
      I am on the fence with Shea Patterson and Michigan. Food for thought.

      In Patterson's 5 games against Power 65 teams, he threw 14 TDs and had 11 INTS, his QBR was 49, and he was sacked 16 times. Notre Dame's defense was Top 30 in S&P+ with a very young defense. ND did a solid job last year on defense against Georgia, Michigan State, NC State, they wore down late. Agree with you on Wimbush, until he shows me, I am suspicious.

      I have the game as a "No Play". Best of luck on it, hope you cash it.
      I wouldn't compare Patterson's 5 games against tough SEC defenses to Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense was very mediocre. The Georgia game was against a first year starters first start ever on the road, MSU wasn't good offensively, and the NC State game their top running back got hurt early, they moved the ball but couldn't finish.

      I don't see Michigan as a top 10 team, but I think they are clearly better than a Notre Dame basically replacing the entire core of the offensive line.
      Comment
      • ikid2groove415
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-08-18
        • 11981

        #4
        LSU haven’t had a legit passing attack since that FAT PIG JaMarcus Russell- good call on the under
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        • A Quant
          SBR MVP
          • 05-14-18
          • 1357

          #5
          Originally posted by thomorino
          I wouldn't compare Patterson's 5 games against tough SEC defenses to Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense was very mediocre. The Georgia game was against a first year starters first start ever on the road, MSU wasn't good offensively, and the NC State game their top running back got hurt early, they moved the ball but couldn't finish.

          I don't see Michigan as a top 10 team, but I think they are clearly better than a Notre Dame basically replacing the entire core of the offensive line.
          Okay, did you see his numbers versus Cal and Vandy? Still pretty lousy.

          Honestly, I have no dog in the fight, but Notre Dame's defense was a lot better than you think. Through their first 8 games last year, I think only 1 team broke 20, Georgia.

          They held USC to 14, NC State to 14, Michigan State to 18. I am not saying they are a top 10 defense. One more note. Michigan played 3 ranked teams last year in the regular season and lost by an average of 18 points. Harbaugh's last 6 games against ranked teams he is 1-5.

          Again, good luck on it. Not trying to talk you out of it, just discussing picks.
          Comment
          • JAKEPEAVY21
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 03-11-11
            • 29311

            #6
            yes ND lost 2 stud OL but they have blue chip talent to fill in...OL won't be as good as last season but still will be good. I expect Winbush to be much improved in the passing game this season. No play for me but gun to my head, I'd take the slight dog at home with the Irish.

            tough for me to back LSU with Orgeron..I have no faith in him as a head coach. I trust Richt a heck of a lot more to have his team prepared and ready to play week 1.
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            • ikid2groove415
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-08-18
              • 11981

              #7
              I miss les miles - he couldn’t beat Alabama - but those game was epic with defense on both sides
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              • thomorino
                Restricted User
                • 06-01-17
                • 45842

                #8
                Originally posted by A Quant
                Okay, did you see his numbers versus Cal and Vandy? Still pretty lousy.

                Honestly, I have no dog in the fight, but Notre Dame's defense was a lot better than you think. Through their first 8 games last year, I think only 1 team broke 20, Georgia.

                They held USC to 14, NC State to 14, Michigan State to 18. I am not saying they are a top 10 defense. One more note. Michigan played 3 ranked teams last year in the regular season and lost by an average of 18 points. Harbaugh's last 6 games against ranked teams he is 1-5.

                Again, good luck on it. Not trying to talk you out of it, just discussing picks.
                Notre Dame's schedule was a joke last year - they were ranked top 10 before they got obliterated by a good but not great Miami team and they barely finished the season ranked. USC wasn't impressive last year either, Darnold was already preparing for the NFL. NC State was an interesting team, but if you look at their stats last year, the offense was garbage on the road, MSU's offense was bad.

                Patterson was in his first full year starting last year and he wasn't always consistent, but Harbaugh is a good offensive mind, and I think he will make Patterson better.
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                • thomorino
                  Restricted User
                  • 06-01-17
                  • 45842

                  #9
                  Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21
                  yes ND lost 2 stud OL but they have blue chip talent to fill in...OL won't be as good as last season but still will be good. I expect Winbush to be much improved in the passing game this season. No play for me but gun to my head, I'd take the slight dog at home with the Irish.

                  tough for me to back LSU with Orgeron..I have no faith in him as a head coach. I trust Richt a heck of a lot more to have his team prepared and ready to play week 1.
                  Notre Dame get good recruits, but they don't recruit like Alabama and Clemson, they won't replace 2 first round picks, 1 a top 10 pick, in a year.
                  Comment
                  • thomorino
                    Restricted User
                    • 06-01-17
                    • 45842

                    #10
                    Originally posted by ikid2groove415
                    I miss les miles - he couldn’t beat Alabama - but those game was epic with defense on both sides
                    I miss Miles too, his press conferences were epic, not a great head coach, but entertaining.
                    Comment
                    • ikid2groove415
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-08-18
                      • 11981

                      #11
                      Originally posted by thomorino
                      I miss Miles too, his press conferences were epic, not a great head coach, but entertaining.
                      LSU got worst without him - he was consistently in the Top 10-15 every year - won a championship- then nick saban show up
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                      • Demonata
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 07-12-11
                        • 25829

                        #12
                        Betting against notre dame home opener scary...

                        I would take notre dame.
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                        • ikid2groove415
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-08-18
                          • 11981

                          #13
                          Man I love banging the under when LSU play Alabama back when les miles was still coaching -
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                          • bonzaii
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-07-17
                            • 5000

                            #14
                            You missed the value that there was on this game when the line opened at some places as MICH +6,+7. Wish I lived in Vegas so I could have gotten those numbers. As the line currently stands, I wouldn't bet this game.
                            Comment
                            • thomorino
                              Restricted User
                              • 06-01-17
                              • 45842

                              #15
                              Originally posted by bonzaii
                              You missed the value that there was on this game when the line opened at some places as MICH +6,+7. Wish I lived in Vegas so I could have gotten those numbers. As the line currently stands, I wouldn't bet this game.
                              I don't think the line ever opened there, ND was a small favorite, I don't think was ever a 6 or 7. When the line is under 7 college football is a pick the winner sport. The single dumbest bet in all of sports is teasing college football - the points just don't matter that often unless the spread is double digits.
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                              • bonzaii
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 07-07-17
                                • 5000

                                #16
                                Originally posted by thomorino
                                I don't think the line ever opened there, ND was a small favorite, I don't think was ever a 6 or 7. When the line is under 7 college football is a pick the winner sport. The single dumbest bet in all of sports is teasing college football - the points just don't matter that often unless the spread is double digits.
                                It opened at least at +6 at South Point. You are right about teasing college football being dumb but saying that lines under 7 and points don't matter is
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                                • thomorino
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 06-01-17
                                  • 45842

                                  #17
                                  The line was never 6 for any extended amount of time at any large offshore book, 6 points underdogs that cover the spread win straight up over 70% of the time - spreads under 7 in college football usually don't mean dik.
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                                  • bonzaii
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 07-07-17
                                    • 5000

                                    #18
                                    05/21 1:02pm ND-6 -110 MICH+6 -110
                                    05/21 1:03pm ND-4 -110 MICH+4 -110
                                    05/21 1:09pm ND-3 -110 MICH+3 -110
                                    05/21 1:28pm ND-2 -110 MICH+2 -110
                                    05/21 1:35pm MICHPK -110 MICHPK -110
                                    05/21 2:03pm ND-1 -110 MICH+1 -110
                                    05/21 10:12pm MICHPK -110 MICHPK -110
                                    Comment
                                    • thomorino
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 06-01-17
                                      • 45842

                                      #19
                                      You're looking at the opening line at a couple isolated books - most offshore books don't even have college football lines up that early. That line was never available market wide. Anyways, look at the data on college spreads under a TD - they very rarely matter - less than 25% of the time, I don't see them mattering here.
                                      Comment
                                      • thomorino
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 06-01-17
                                        • 45842

                                        #20
                                        Don't you see the contradiction between your agreement with me that teasing college football even though you're still arguing that spreads under a TD matter, either 6 points matter or it doesn't - most of the time in college football it doesn't.
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                                        • 2daBank
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-26-09
                                          • 88966

                                          #21
                                          How much longer till they actually play these games? I know it getting really close just curious on the dates?
                                          Comment
                                          • 2daBank
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-26-09
                                            • 88966

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by thomorino
                                            Don't you see the contradiction between your agreement with me that teasing college football even though you're still arguing that spreads under a TD matter, either 6 points matter or it doesn't - most of the time in college football it doesn't.
                                            IMO teasers are far less valuable in the college game than then nfl, from my experience anyways.

                                            Sure I can find the occasional sec defensive slugfest where teasing a team up from a 2.5 spread to 8.5 or taking the fav down under a fg makes sense but those are really few and far between imo. Nfl on the other hand teasers can give a lot of value if done right with most games really only coming down to a few plays either way.
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                                            • thomorino
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 06-01-17
                                              • 45842

                                              #23
                                              How can you argue college football teasers are dumb because 6 points doesn't usually matter but argue that point spreads under 7 aren't pick the winner games.
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                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by thomorino
                                                How can you argue college football teasers are dumb because 6 points doesn't usually matter but argue that point spreads under 7 aren't pick the winner games.
                                                I’m assuming that question isn’t for me cause don’t think I said either of those things.
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                                                • bonzaii
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 07-07-17
                                                  • 5000

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by thomorino
                                                  The line was never 6 for any extended amount of time at any large offshore book, 6 points underdogs that cover the spread win straight up over 70% of the time - spreads under 7 in college football usually don't mean dik.
                                                  Yeah, offshore needs to put up their lines sooner. How often do they win? Your leaving out losses and when you push on 6. Yes, they do mean dick especially in a game where the line is more likely to be on point lol.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • thomorino
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 06-01-17
                                                    • 45842

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by bonzaii
                                                    Yeah, offshore needs to put up their lines sooner. How often do they win? Your leaving out losses and when you push on 6. Yes, they do mean dick especially in a game where the line is more likely to be on point lol.
                                                    I can recall 1 game I've bet in the last several years where a spread under 7 mattered, obviously it does matter about 15-20% of the time - not enough to matter though, and that's exactly why college football teasers have no value.
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                                                    • bonzaii
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 07-07-17
                                                      • 5000

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by thomorino
                                                      Don't you see the contradiction between your agreement with me that teasing college football even though you're still arguing that spreads under a TD matter, either 6 points matter or it doesn't - most of the time in college football it doesn't.
                                                      No, teasing for one involves at least two games which you have to win both versus betting on just one game. Also, your never going to tease a team at +6. Of course spreads under a TD matter. Moving from +6 to -1.5 is a huge move. Anything crossing the 3 is a big move.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • thomorino
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 06-01-17
                                                        • 45842

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by bonzaii
                                                        No, teasing for one involves at least two games which you have to win both versus betting on just one game. Also, your never going to tease a team at +6. Of course spreads under a TD matter. Moving from +6 to -1.5 is a huge move. Anything crossing the 3 is a big move.
                                                        There are no key numbers in college football worth paying money for and no one is arguing the a spread under a TD matter 0% of the time, but its pretty damn close. If you are betting underdogs of 6 or less and not taking them on the moneyline in college football you don't know what you're doing.
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                                                        • bonzaii
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 07-07-17
                                                          • 5000

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by thomorino
                                                          I can recall 1 game I've bet in the last several years where a spread under 7 mattered, obviously it does matter about 15-20% of the time - not enough to matter though, and that's exactly why college football teasers have no value.
                                                          Has nothing to do with spreads under 7 not mattering according to you and all to do with totals being higher in college football and offensives being more explosive which means more points and less predictably. Usually when someone is teasing like in the NFL not only are they only doing it when it involves crossing key numbers but also usually involves low totaled games.
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                                                          • thomorino
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 06-01-17
                                                            • 45842

                                                            #30
                                                            Opening lines in college football don't mean anything to me - those lines are available for 2 second, a couple big bets move the lines 6-7 points.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • thomorino
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 06-01-17
                                                              • 45842

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by bonzaii
                                                              Has nothing to do with spreads under 7 not mattering according to you and all to do with totals being higher in college football and offensives being more explosive which means more points and less predictably. Usually when someone is teasing like in the NFL not only are they only doing it when it involves crossing key numbers but also usually involves low totaled games.
                                                              No shit. That's why teasing the NFL has value, there are key numbers. There really aren't any key numbers in college football, and none worth paying for, 2 point conversions, higher scoring games, and missed field goals, the key numbers in the NFL are nowhere near as important in college football.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • thomorino
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 06-01-17
                                                                • 45842

                                                                #32
                                                                The best way to tell if you got value is to compare your number you got against the closing number, not the opening number - I think this line closes at Michigan -3.
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                                                                • bonzaii
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 07-07-17
                                                                  • 5000

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by thomorino
                                                                  You're looking at the opening line at a couple isolated books - most offshore books don't even have college football lines up that early.
                                                                  Hmm... I wonder why that is?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • thomorino
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 06-01-17
                                                                    • 45842

                                                                    #34
                                                                    If you look at betting markets like the stock market - what does it matter if you get the opening number or first price with an IPO - you usually got value if you beat what the number is today or in the case of betting markets the closing number.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bonzaii
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 07-07-17
                                                                      • 5000

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by thomorino
                                                                      If you look at betting markets like the stock market - what does it matter if you get the opening number or first price with an IPO - you usually got value if you beat what the number is today or in the case of betting markets the closing number.
                                                                      You always want to get the best number possible. O and I got bad news Morino. Tarik Black, Michigan's top receiver, just went down again this year and is going to miss at least 6 weeks. I don't even know who is going to be that third wide receiver now when Michigan works out of their shotgun 3 wide/single back formation.
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