A Big Bet For Week 1 in the NFL

**turbobets** · 08-19-18, 11:24 PM

Completely agree with your 49er's analysis, overrated.

**lakerboy** · 08-19-18, 11:31 PM

Great bet

**TTA_President** · 08-19-18, 11:33 PM

49ers may lose first four so nice assumption.

**thomorino** · 08-19-18, 11:35 PM

I have this number at 8.5, I give the Vikings 4 for home field, i think they are about 4-5 points better on a neutral. I like the matchup too with questions about the 49er secondary, I don't think Sherman will be the same player he was in Seattle, where got away with a lot of grabbing at home and he had Thomas and Chancellor behind him and a good pass rush.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-19-18, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by thomorino

I like Minnesota at -6, I think the line closes at 7. Everyone is high on this 49er team based on 3 fairly meaningless strong performances by Garrapolo last year against Jacksonville after they had just found out they won the division before the game, the Rams without the 1st team on the field, and a Tennesee and Houston team that had bad defense after kay players got hurt. The 49ers defense still has a lot of holes, no pro bowl pass rusher, and a secondary with lots of questions since a 32 year old Sherman coming off an ACL tear is their best player on the back end.

The Vikings defense got destroyed in the NFC championship game, but the Vikings and their defense are far better at home where the crowd noise and turf gives their speed a big advantage. The Vikings have been the best home team in the NFL the last several years, and they were 7-1 last year at home, with the only loss early in the season when Keenum was still figuring out the offense.

Cousins could have gone anywhere, but he wanted to go to a winner, while Garrapolo got a $100 million dollar contract based on 4 starts, and it will be interesting to see if Garrapollo has the same focus now that he's gotten paid.

Would 49ers be 1-15 without jimmy g last year ? They were horrible before he arrive - Not saying 49ers will win the game- but they will put up points - Kyle shanahan is a great offensive mind - Vikings will not be the cover machine like last year - Take the points

**thomorino** · 08-19-18, 11:47 PM

I agree the 49ers will score, I like the over, I just don't think the 49ers can get stops, and I think Minnesota's offense has far better weapons than the 49ers. I think the 49ers are still a year or 2 away, they need better wideouts.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

I agree the 49ers will score, I like the over, I just don't think the 49ers can get stops, and I think Minnesota's offense has far better weapons than the 49ers. I think the 49ers are still a year or 2 away, they need better wideouts.

I don’t wanna be a homer - because I’m a 49er fan- but this jimmy G dude is the real deal - 7-0 as a starter - I think the Vikings game will be real close - losing Shurmur is bigger then people think-- Viking offense was micky mouse for years before he took over as offensive cordanator — He change Keenum career

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:08 AM

I like Shermur a lot, i agree he is underrated, winning 10 games with Bridgwater and no Peterson was a great accomplishment, but Cousins has proven he's a solid NFL QB - better than Keenum and Bridgewater, so I think that since the VIkings upgraded the QB position losing Shermur isn't as big of a deal. I also think the 49ers defense has a lot of flaws, Sherman is good against bigger receivers he can get physical with, but he's struggled with smaller receivers like Diggs.

**johnnyvegas13** · 08-20-18, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

I like Shermur a lot, i agree he is underrated, winning 10 games with Bridgwater and no Peterson was a great accomplishment, but Cousins has proven he's a solid NFL QB - better than Keenum and Bridgewater, so I think that since the VIkings upgraded the QB position losing Shermur isn't as big of a deal. I also think the 49ers defense has a lot of flaws, Sherman is good against bigger receivers he can get physical with, but he's struggled with smaller receivers like Diggs.

Ya I agree cousins is an upgrade over keenum not by a lot but I understand y Vikings did it

as for week 1 this spread is sharp

I have no doubt viksss win but 6 is a lot

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:24 AM

6 isn't a small number but 6 points underdogs that cover the spread win straight up 70% of the time - when the spread is 6 the spread only matters 30% of the time. 6 is also a fairly dead number, very few games land on it. I think there is value at anything under 7.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

I like Shermur a lot, i agree he is underrated, winning 10 games with Bridgwater and no Peterson was a great accomplishment, but Cousins has proven he's a solid NFL QB - better than Keenum and Bridgewater, so I think that since the VIkings upgraded the QB position losing Shermur isn't as big of a deal. I also think the 49ers defense has a lot of flaws, Sherman is good against bigger receivers he can get physical with, but he's struggled with smaller receivers like Diggs.

Bro let’s just say 49ers put up 21 points? Which is more then possible - Jimmy G is the real deal - there’s a reason Bill Belichick didn’t wanna give him up ? So you got a legit QB and a great offensive mind in Kyle shanahan - Matt Ryan best years was under him as offensive cord- it’s hard 2 convince me 2 give 6 points - I just know Vikings defense won’t be able to stop the 49ers passing game -

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:33 AM

I think the 49ers will score, but Garrapolo was in a system in NE with very good receivers, he has Shanahan, sure, but he doesn't have the receivers he did in New England, and the 49ers running backs aren't very good either. I think the Vikings put up 27-30 points, I see a 31-21, 31-24 game.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

6 isn't a small number but 6 points underdogs that cover the spread win straight up 70% of the time - when the spread is 6 the spread only matters 30% of the time. 6 is also a fairly dead number, very few games land on it. I think there is value at anything under 7.

I just don’t think it’s going be a blow out - 6 is the correct number for this game - better team with home field -

**johnnyvegas13** · 08-20-18, 12:35 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

6 isn't a small number but 6 points underdogs that cover the spread win straight up 70% of the time - when the spread is 6 the spread only matters 30% of the time. 6 is also a fairly dead number, very few games land on it. I think there is value at anything under 7.

I don't think that's true

it's proven -3.5 covers 75%

and -4 cover / pushes 75%

so ur telling me 4-6 pts is only worth another 5% ?

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:37 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

I don't think that's true

it's proven -3.5 covers 75%

and -4 cover / pushes 75%

so ur telling me 4-6 pts is only worth another 5% ?

I'm talking long-term you might be talking 1 season, but 3 point underdogs that cover the spread win straight up 90% of the time, so the fact 6 point underdogs that cover the spread win straight up 70% of the time makes sense. The spread only matters in 18% of NFL games.

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

I don't think that's true

it's proven -3.5 covers 75%

and -4 cover / pushes 75%

so ur telling me 4-6 pts is only worth another 5% ?

There's no way 3.5 point underdogs cover 75% of the time - if the spread is less than 4 you almost always need to win straight up to cover ATS.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:40 AM

Morino so your positive jimmy g takes his first NFL lost in Minnesota? This dude is tough man 7-0

**johnnyvegas13** · 08-20-18, 12:41 AM

No I'm saying -3.5 favorites cover if they win su 75% of the time

**johnnyvegas13** · 08-20-18, 12:44 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

There's no way 3.5 point underdogs cover 75% of the time - if the spread is less than 4 you almost always need to win straight up to cover ATS.

So a 3.5 pt underdog would cover the spread but lose su 25% of the time

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:45 AM

Books will inflate every Vikings game on the spread this year - they killed it last year ATS- remember that

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

No I'm saying -3.5 favorites cover if they win su 75% of the time

That number is too low, 3 point favorites cover the spread 90% of the time they win, a half point doesn't make a 15% difference.

You have to remember too, games are higher scoring every year, and the higher scoring a game is the less value each individual point will have - its much easier to cover a point spread the more points you score.

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:47 AM

I respect Jimmy G and Shanaha, I don't see the receivers or running game to make the playoffs or win on the road against a tough Minnesota defense this year.

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by ikid2groove415

Books will inflate every Vikings game on the spread this year - they killed it last year ATS- remember that

I don't think so, the Vikings have been killing it ATS since Zimmer took over, not just last year, the Vikings just aren't that public of a team. They don't get the same action as GB with Rodgers or NE with Brady, the 49ers with Garrapolo will get a decent amount of public action.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

I don't think so, the Vikings have been killing it ATS since Zimmer took over, not just last year, the Vikings just aren't that public of a team. They don't get the same action as GB with Rodgers or NE with Brady, the 49ers with Garrapolo will get a decent amount of public action.

This means there due 2 give back this year - ? RB/WR is overrated bro - New England rarely values them and Keeps winning -

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 12:54 AM

I’m out peace - we will bump this thread in a few weeks

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 12:56 AM

Jimmy G had far better targets at NE than he does in San Francisco, he had Gronk, Edelman, Amendola. San Francisco's receivers are very mediocre. I agree only dumb teams pay receivers big money, but you still need at least average receivers, I think San Francisco's receiving corp is bad, and they have no running game. New England has always had good receivers for their system - welker, branch, Hernandez, Gronk, Edelman. Good players but system players.

**MoonPond** · 08-20-18, 01:15 AM

The strong finish by SF last season may have been a mirage, but because of it they're going to go it Minnesota with confidence and keep the game close. Maybe SF implodes later on into the schedule, it won't happen game 1.

The bet is a mistake.

**The J-Dizzle** · 08-20-18, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by thomorino

Jimmy G had far better targets at NE than he does in San Francisco, he had Gronk, Edelman, Amendola. San Francisco's receivers are very mediocre. I agree only dumb teams pay receivers big money, but you still need at least average receivers, I think San Francisco's receiving corp is bad, and they have no running game. New England has always had good receivers for their system - welker, branch, Hernandez, Gronk, Edelman. Good players but system players.

Why are they dumb? The passing game is more important than the running game today, more correlated to team success.

It's hard to know where Minnesota is at the moment, It's hard to lose your offensive coordinator since it usually takes some time to adjust and be fully comfortable in it, depending on the complexity of the offense. Like with the case of Shanahan that you have brought up. Matt Ryan's production went high up in Shanahan's second year with Ryan still playing just as well as every year. Last year Ryan played equally good, according to PFF, but his production went down in Sarkisians first year. It's just a thought. Cousins has better supporting cast in Minny so he may play better because of that. But It's still Week 1.

I agree that 49ers are overrated because of their wins last year. They won with 1-2 points over Bears and Titans, and Bears were a very inefficient team (poorly coached). Rams didn't care week 17. Garoppolo is among the worst in the league on deep throws. BUT this is his second year with Shanahan so who knows? 49ers has clearly the better offensive minded coach among the two teams.

Good luck.

**BIGDAY** · 08-20-18, 04:22 AM

MN wins by 17pts.

**ikid2groove415** · 08-20-18, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by The J-Dizzle

Why are they dumb? The passing game is more important than the running game today, more correlated to team success.

It's hard to know where Minnesota is at the moment, It's hard to lose your offensive coordinator since it usually takes some time to adjust and be fully comfortable in it, depending on the complexity of the offense. Like with the case of Shanahan that you have brought up. Matt Ryan's production went high up in Shanahan's second year with Ryan still playing just as well as every year. Last year Ryan played equally good, according to PFF, but his production went down in Sarkisians first year. It's just a thought. Cousins has better supporting cast in Minny so he may play better because of that. But It's still Week 1.

I agree that 49ers are overrated because of their wins last year. They won with 1-2 points over Bears and Titans, and Bears were a very inefficient team (poorly coached). Rams didn't care week 17. Garoppolo is among the worst in the league on deep throws. BUT this is his second year with Shanahan so who knows? 49ers has clearly the better offensive minded coach among the two teams.

Good luck.

Rb/WR can easily be replace (Yes it’s dumb 2 over paid those positions ) - Most important positions 1.QB 2.O-line 3.D-line - 100% without jimmy g 49ers go 1-15 - It’s dumb 2 ignore the 2-0 Start in New England start and the 5-0 Start in SF- The Guy wins !!!

**Sam Odom** · 08-20-18, 07:17 AM

Dont overlook the fact Jimmy G may have a STD

**shocka1212** · 08-20-18, 07:21 AM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

Dont overlook the fact Jimmy G may have a STD

the barstool caption was the best. Jimmy G had himself QUITE the Friday night....

on a side note, so mad at myself for knocking out early last night and missing this thread

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by The J-Dizzle

Why are they dumb? The passing game is more important than the running game today, more correlated to team success.

It's hard to know where Minnesota is at the moment, It's hard to lose your offensive coordinator since it usually takes some time to adjust and be fully comfortable in it, depending on the complexity of the offense. Like with the case of Shanahan that you have brought up. Matt Ryan's production went high up in Shanahan's second year with Ryan still playing just as well as every year. Last year Ryan played equally good, according to PFF, but his production went down in Sarkisians first year. It's just a thought. Cousins has better supporting cast in Minny so he may play better because of that. But It's still Week 1.

I agree that 49ers are overrated because of their wins last year. They won with 1-2 points over Bears and Titans, and Bears were a very inefficient team (poorly coached). Rams didn't care week 17. Garoppolo is among the worst in the league on deep throws. BUT this is his second year with Shanahan so who knows? 49ers has clearly the better offensive minded coach among the two teams.

Good luck.

Garrapolo played 3 games last year for Shanahan, I'd say this is his first real year. I think you have to pay receivers a decent amount, but paying them 15-20 million when you don't have a good offensive line makes no sense. I don't know of any team that has been able to win anything with a receiver getting paid over 15 million.

**thomorino** · 08-20-18, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by The J-Dizzle

Why are they dumb? The passing game is more important than the running game today, more correlated to team success.

It's hard to know where Minnesota is at the moment, It's hard to lose your offensive coordinator since it usually takes some time to adjust and be fully comfortable in it, depending on the complexity of the offense. Like with the case of Shanahan that you have brought up. Matt Ryan's production went high up in Shanahan's second year with Ryan still playing just as well as every year. Last year Ryan played equally good, according to PFF, but his production went down in Sarkisians first year. It's just a thought. Cousins has better supporting cast in Minny so he may play better because of that. But It's still Week 1.

I agree that 49ers are overrated because of their wins last year. They won with 1-2 points over Bears and Titans, and Bears were a very inefficient team (poorly coached). Rams didn't care week 17. Garoppolo is among the worst in the league on deep throws. BUT this is his second year with Shanahan so who knows? 49ers has clearly the better offensive minded coach among the two teams.

Good luck.

I completely disagree with the take that we don't know where Minnesota is - they return their entire team with an upgrade at QB - only replacement is Shermur.