WED Afternoon: Value MLB Play

[danwinkler]

Milwaukee +160 1 units against Cleveland (Anderson and Carrasco)
Over 8.5 (+102) 1 unit

Love these 2 this afternoon. Carrasco is inconsistent at his home park. Cleveland Bullpen is also not in a good state this year and no lead is safe going into 7th inning or later. Milwaukee on the other hand has shutdown bullpen. I don't trust Anderson that much but he has pitched well on the road and his offense should be able to give him necessary run support.

[jts1207]

Looks worth a shot.

[shadymcgrady]

All of this is great but what if Carrasco decides to show up?

[jjgold]

There’s no value in any major league baseball line is everything is factored in

[danwinkler]

All of this is great but what if Carrasco decides to show up?

He has 5.59ERA in 5 home starts this season and averages less than 6 inning per start. He has 5.90 ERA in 5 day starts so far this season and again averages less than 6 innings per start. I am guessing most of the home start also came during day time. Its not just this season, every year he is inconsistent at home and since 2015 i believe his era is almost 5 at home.

Cleveland bullpen is horrible this year. Even if he shows up Milwaukee at +160 is nice value. I expect both pitchers to give up 3 to 4 runs and the game coming down to bullpen and Milwaukee has huge edge there.