NFL season wins totals at pinny and Superbowl odds

lakerboy · 05-28-18, 03:46 PM

Some interesting lines

jjgold · 05-28-18, 03:51 PM

too early

do not revolve your life around gambling

Mike75 · 05-29-18, 06:23 AM

Tennessee OVER 8
San Francisco OVER 8.5
Cleveland OVER 5
Tampa Bay OVER 6.5

BigdaddyQH · 05-29-18, 11:25 AM

The reason why most of you lose on wagers like these overall is twofold. First, you get screwed big time on the Vig. Secondly, you NEVER look at the schedule. Let's take our friend Mikes favorite team, Tennessee, for an example. Assuming that Marcus the patsy stays healthy, and can actually play all 16 games, here is what you are looking at:

Home games: Losses to Philadelphia and New England are probable. Baltimore can give them trouble. 2-3 losses.
Away games: Here is where it gets ugly. Away games at the Chargers in England and Cowboys are almost sure losses. Buffalo is certainly not an easy game, nor is opening the season in Miami. 3 probable losses out of those 4 games
Divisional games: 4-2 at best. They may sweep Indy, but they have just as much of a chance being swept by Jacksonville.

Add everything up and a season with 7-9 wins and 7-9 losses seems the most likely outcome. That is nowhere near good enough to wager because there is no cushion at all.

goduke · 05-29-18, 11:56 AM

Browns under, Pitt over but I never bet this stuff. Seems pointless to tie up money for 17 weeks

shadymcgrady · 05-29-18, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

too early

do not revolve your life around gambling

Giants over 6.5 is juiced but easy

I had chargers at +2300 to win superbowl a month ago and plan on hedging

LT Profits · 05-29-18, 11:59 AM

Miami UNDER 6.5 -104 is a GREAT price while you can get it.

Forearm Shiver · 05-29-18, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The reason why most of you lose on wagers like these overall is twofold. First, you get screwed big time on the Vig. Secondly, you NEVER look at the schedule. Let's take our friend Mikes favorite team, Tennessee, for an example. Assuming that Marcus the patsy stays healthy, and can actually play all 16 games, here is what you are looking at:

Home games: Losses to Philadelphia and New England are probable. Baltimore can give them trouble. 2-3 losses.
Away games: Here is where it gets ugly. Away games at the Chargers in England and Cowboys are almost sure losses. Buffalo is certainly not an easy game, nor is opening the season in Miami. 3 probable losses out of those 4 games
Divisional games: 4-2 at best. They may sweep Indy, but they have just as much of a chance being swept by Jacksonville.

Add everything up and a season with 7-9 wins and 7-9 losses seems the most likely outcome. That is nowhere near good enough to wager because there is no cushion at all.

Who doesn't look at the schedule? And in looking at the schedule, we are looking at projected records, not 2017 records. We are looking at game sequencing, and we look for the placement of the bye week. The ideal schedule is home game/road game/home game/road game etc. The further away from that, the more likely there will be trouble. Having back to back home games is not as beneficial as having back to back road games is a negative.

There's a number of other factors to consider but schedule is the starting point. I only wish individual regular season games were as "easy" as RSW totals. There's a reason why some outs will not take action on them.

lakerboy · 05-29-18, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by goduke

Browns under, Pitt over but I never bet this stuff. Seems pointless to tie up money for 17 weeks

See the point of the thread is to give people a idea on what to expect not bet these.

Rams

lakerboy · 05-29-18, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The reason why most of you lose on wagers like these overall is twofold. First, you get screwed big time on the Vig. Secondly, you NEVER look at the schedule. Let's take our friend Mikes favorite team, Tennessee, for an example. Assuming that Marcus the patsy stays healthy, and can actually play all 16 games, here is what you are looking at:

Home games: Losses to Philadelphia and New England are probable. Baltimore can give them trouble. 2-3 losses.
Away games: Here is where it gets ugly. Away games at the Chargers in England and Cowboys are almost sure losses. Buffalo is certainly not an easy game, nor is opening the season in Miami. 3 probable losses out of those 4 games
Divisional games: 4-2 at best. They may sweep Indy, but they have just as much of a chance being swept by Jacksonville.

Add everything up and a season with 7-9 wins and 7-9 losses seems the most likely outcome. That is nowhere near good enough to wager because there is no cushion at all.

Read post #3

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thetrinity · 05-29-18, 01:50 PM

Detroit Under with fat Patricia coaching

semibluff · 05-29-18, 02:42 PM

There are 256 regular season NFL games. By definition there can't be more than 256 regular season game winners. However, books post the Over/Under combined line for the whole league somewhere around 261 wins. On top of that they generally offer shorter prices about the Over than they do the Under. They know most 'recreational gamblers' will just bet the Over on their own team. It's like posting a -125 Heads & -105 Tails line on a coin flip. If you're the sort of gambler who likes to take -125 on a coin flip then betting NFL regular season Overs is for you. The expected outcome is 14 Overs, 16 Unders, with 2 other teams that finish smack on the line.

Waterstpub87 · 05-29-18, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

There are 256 regular season NFL games. By definition there can't be more than 256 regular season game winners. However, books post the Over/Under combined line for the whole league somewhere around 261 wins. On top of that they generally offer shorter prices about the Over than they do the Under. They know most 'recreational gamblers' will just bet the Over on their own team. It's like posting a -125 Heads & -105 Tails line on a coin flip. If you're the sort of gambler who likes to take -125 on a coin flip then betting NFL regular season Overs is for you. The expected outcome is 14 Overs, 16 Unders, with 2 other teams that finish smack on the line.

This is solid analysis.

BIGDAY · 05-29-18, 02:45 PM

Skol ovah 10 with EASE

JMobile · 05-29-18, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

too early

do not revolve your life around gambling

Laker is taking the Houston Rockets ML and spread for NFL too. Lol

Enkhbat · 05-29-18, 09:43 PM

bengals under 6.5 is the only one I like at this point, I also like the Falcons over 9 wins but too much juice on that.

CHOICE · 05-29-18, 09:58 PM

Dallas under 8 wins is free money. Prescott is a fraud and is losing Dez and Witten.. they are big losses, especially for a QB who can't hit the broad side of a barn or read a defense. Stud RB, O-line, a couple D pieces is not enough. QB, WR, coaching will be Dallas downfall. 6-10.

ChiLLx · 05-29-18, 11:29 PM

Bills have the worst QBs in the league. They will miss Taylor big time. 5 wins at most

Seahawks look like a 6-7 win team this year. This could be Carrell's last year there

lakerboy · 01-30-19, 01:56 PM

Wow

theclutch777 · 01-30-19, 02:03 PM

True b ut a year before is a little extreme, Good Pros have confidence in our ability to reconize a good, money bet as compared to a hunch bet. Vegas makes millions on hunch bet losers. WE gamblers need to keep our perception sharp, and reconize a good value, then let our feelings in on it!

ChiLLx · 01-30-19, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

Bills have the worst QBs in the league. They will miss Taylor big time. 5 wins at most

Seahawks look like a 6-7 win team this year. This could be Carrell's last year there

Well I had the Bills right for the most part but the Hawks definitely overachieved this year

gauchojake · 01-30-19, 06:44 PM

How does QH have any money left????

lakerboy · 01-30-19, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

How does QH have any money left????

His post was so funny in retrospect

jjgold · 01-30-19, 07:01 PM

most have no money left