MLS Soccer Bettors

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 12:56 PM

In particular, I'm wondering what is likely the highest volume offshore book for two-way MLS...

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 12:59 PM

I probably posted this in the wrong place too. Could a mod please cross-link this thread with the Sportsbook and Industry Forum, please?

englishmike · 06-20-09, 01:15 PM

I'll say at the outset I don't know the answer to your question although i will have a look because I'm interested in the answer myself.

As I'm sure you know, Euro books are pretty clued up as regards soccer and as a point of reference, I don't know how useful it would be for you to know what the Euro lines are, but if you wanted to cross reference and get a feel of a stale or loose line this link would certainly be helpful in giving you an idea of a Euro book consensus in trying to find an edge. Just click the tab on the right of any match, you can change it to US odds at the top of the page.

Just a moment...

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-leagues/usa

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 01:37 PM

Thanks, Mike. Unfortunately, all of the books there list three-ways. Greek is the only book I've found that lists two-ways for MLS. Do you know of any others offhand? In particular, I'm looking for a 2-way Seattle/New York line today. I'm finding huge value on the Red Bulls at a book here compared to The Greek offering (even though the have a 62 cent line!). Thanks for the help.

englishmike · 06-20-09, 01:52 PM

Draw no bet lines

Just a moment...

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-leagues/usa/us-major-league/new-york-red-bulls-v-seattle/draw-no-bet

red Bulls range from -137 to -175. What line did you find?

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 02:45 PM

Thanks, Mike. I got em at -125.

englishmike · 06-20-09, 02:54 PM

Good luck with it, that line is an 'edge' right there.

Emily_Haines · 06-20-09, 02:56 PM

betphoenix uses the asian line

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:00 PM

I don't believe there's enough volume on BetPhoenix, Emily, but thanks. From what I see of this match, The Greek does seem to have decent volume on MLS. However, I'll clearly need to look into it further if this becomes a regular occurance.

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:05 PM

The amount of vig in MLS lines across the board is staggering. Probably a relatively easy market to beat...

durito · 06-20-09, 03:11 PM

pinnacle has 8 cent lines on em $5k limits

Matt Rain · 06-20-09, 03:15 PM

I'm not sure what the situation is at SBO, but seeing how they're offering a couple of AH's on top of the 3-ways, they either feel confident in their numbers and/or they've got decent volume. 8-cent lines on the AH.

I average Pinny's and SBO's price as my market indicator for smaller soccer leagues, MLS included. Been working fine so far.

durito · 06-20-09, 03:24 PM

greek's vig on soccer is absurd, i find it hard to believe they get any sharp action

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:24 PM

Sadly, this book only offers 2-way. There only seem to be a handful of places to compare to. I wish I didn't have so much on my plate right now. I'm not gonna have enough time to delve very deep into MLS this year.

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by durito

greek's vig on soccer is absurd, i find it hard to believe they get any sharp action

Bet365, Stan James, William Hill all have insane vig on their 2-ways too, ranging from 32 to 50 cent lines on this match. Crazy.

durito · 06-20-09, 03:33 PM

i have <$10 limits at all of those books, you'd last less than a week

pinny's dynamic was lighting up on these just now, they must get decent action. otherwise, yea as matt said, look at asian books.

Matt Rain · 06-20-09, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

In particular, I'm looking for a 2-way Seattle/New York line today.

SBO:

NY -0.25 +102
Seattle +0.25 -111

NY PK -145
Seattle PK +129

durito · 06-20-09, 03:36 PM

pinny has pk at -144/130 pk&-.5 +105/-114

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by Matt Rain

SBO:

Seattle -0.25 +102
NY +0.25 -111

Seattle PK -145
NY PK +129

Eh?

NY -192
SEA +128

PK @ The Greek.

Is there really this big of an arb out there?

Or are those lines reversed?

durito · 06-20-09, 03:48 PM

he's reversed, nice 64 cent line, why do they even bother

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:52 PM

Heh. No kidding. Looks like they want no action on MLS...

smitch124 · 06-20-09, 03:55 PM

Isn't there a way to find the effective 2 way line inherent in the 3 way line?

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 03:55 PM

The 30 cent lines here on these markets don't look that bad all the sudden...

Matt Rain · 06-20-09, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Isn't there a way to find the effective 2 way line inherent in the 3 way line?

Of course. This is how you find out that the vig is enormous on 3-ways. Using the NY/SEA game as an example:

NY +137
SEA +189
Draw +221

You can compute the PK line by combining the draw and each side. If you risk 100 to win 221 on the draw and 221 to win 302.77 on NY, you're effectively risking 321 ro win 202.77 if NY wins, breaking even if there is a draw. 202.77/321=0.63, which is -158.7.

Seattle PK is -115.4 in this scenario. 74 cent line

Matt Rain · 06-20-09, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by durito

he's reversed

Woops, my bad.

durito · 06-20-09, 04:16 PM

Pinny usually has <3% holds on 3ways but way smaller limits than 2x where they have <2% holds.

The euros 3x holds are often as high as 15% which is like a 90 cent 2x line

MonkeyF0cker · 06-20-09, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Isn't there a way to find the effective 2 way line inherent in the 3 way line?

The problem is that I don't wanna be sitting in the book trying to calculate them while a good number passes me by...

I was hoping to find an efficient 2-way to avoid that.

smitch124 · 06-20-09, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by Matt Rain

Of course. This is how you find out that the vig is enormous on 3-ways. Using the NY/SEA game as an example:

NY +137
SEA +189
Draw +221

You can compute the PK line by combining the draw and each side. If you risk 100 to win 221 on the draw and 221 to win 302.77 on NY, you're effectively risking 321 ro win 202.77 if NY wins, breaking even if there is a draw. 202.77/321=0.63, which is -158.7.

Seattle PK is -115.4 in this scenario. 74 cent line

NY +139
SEA +220
Draw +245

NY risk 100 to win 245 and 245 to win 340.55 on NY so 240.55/345 for draw no bet or push=69.7 which is -143.4

Sea risk 100 to win 245 and 245 to win 539 on Seattle so 439/345 for draw no bet or push=127.2 or +127.2

These lines are from Pinny so at -143.4/+127.2 yields a no-vig of +- 133.86.

Is this right Matty? If so, MF has my blessing to bet NY -125

smitch124 · 06-20-09, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

The problem is that I don't wanna be sitting in the book trying to calculate them while a good number passes me by...

I was hoping to find an efficient 2-way to avoid that.

I understand, I was more asking to understand it myself. Good luck.

Matt Rain · 06-20-09, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

NY +139
SEA +220
Draw +245

NY risk 100 to win 245 and 245 to win 340.55 on NY so 240.55/345 for draw no bet or push=69.7 which is -143.4

Sea risk 100 to win 245 and 245 to win 539 on Seattle so 439/345 for draw no bet or push=127.2 or +127.2

These lines are from Pinny so at -143.4/+127.2 yields a no-vig of +- 133.86.

Is this right Matty? If so, MF has my blessing to bet NY -125

Right on.

20Four7 · 06-20-09, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by MonkeyF0cker

Thanks, Mike. Unfortunately, all of the books there list three-ways. Greek is the only book I've found that lists two-ways for MLS. Do you know of any others offhand? In particular, I'm looking for a 2-way Seattle/New York line today. I'm finding huge value on the Red Bulls at a book here compared to The Greek offering (even though the have a 62 cent line!). Thanks for the help.

Betroyal offers 2 way lines and I think 5 dimes does too.

Rich Boy · 06-21-09, 12:57 AM

I think BetFair's MLS lines would be the sharpest out there.