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i have always disagreed with that term, "marriage penalty"
my wife never worked so we got a huge benefit from being married, certainly didn't get punished tax-wise
weird how democrat-leaning people nitpick certain items under republican presidencies and say "bush made that worse" or "trump made that worse"... pretty much nobody paid more federal income taxes under W or trump than they paid under the previous administration, on the same income
state of illinois, the most liberal-leaning in the area, jacked up their income taxes from 2.5-3% up to 4.95%, lied claiming it was temporary, and then made it permanent... so if you're gonna criticize lying scoundrels and tax thieving governments, we could all start there, in addition to their ridiculous sales taxes, and privatizing stuff like chicago parking meters so that nobody could afford themComment -
IWM holding a nice clean breakout so imma roll with some TNA up until IWM sees $200. Assuming we test back down just gonna average in
probably last week or two to jump on PYPL before they do some sookin n fookin in earningsComment -
Wow. I didn't realize that ATH was over 16k. S&P is actually closer. Somewhere in the 4800's. Almost 4,500 now, so really not very far away. I think this keeps running through the ATH either late this year or early next. 5,100-5,200 then a breather. Economy in a good place and AI automation is gonna bring efficiencies that drive earnings. Oh, and NVDA is gonna be the first 5 trillion dollar company within 3 years. It will beat Apple in that race.Comment -
Well the banks kick off the earnings season with all the big boys making the cash. This was one of the easier calls of the year here, and I hope you all are making the money too.
Can't help but notice one of my mid term plays is also doing the deal. GLD after spiking through some support, is making the bounce but it is coming up against resistance at around the $183 level, so as it gets closer, I'll be unloading, if it gets above I'll jump back in with a retest in price when that happens, or just enjoy the continued run in the gold price as I have plenty of physical on hand stashed away in various spots.
Finally my FLS play has yet to start happening, as the price got closer to the $39 level, I cost averaged down as some of yous say, but the price didn't get to the magical bail out price of $39, and even if it does, it has to close the week to get me to unload and buy my short position back.Comment -
Looks like everyone had the same idea with the banks as I did, sell into the bank earnings this morning. Its like we all know the economy is teetering on destruction and negative issues, and the banks will once again be at the center of the collapse. Enjoy the rally as dark clouds are comin.Comment -
I'm not saying we can't hit a new ATH on the S&P 500, but the market is insanely overbought. Seeing internals in the economy are falling apart as well, I'd be shocked if we're not in a new bear market and recession by the end of the year.Comment -
jacked up their income taxes from 2.5-3% up to 4.95%, lied claiming it was temporary, and then made it permanent..
Please point out when this isn't the case. Kind of like inflation and price reductions. Get used to $15 hamburgers.Comment -
i am very glad that while i thought about selling some portions of my positions a couple, three weeks ago, i ended up not doing so.
i would have seen the market continue to climb after my selling.
no doubt we are pretty frothy right now but as I said to Josher, it is not the frothiness of 2000 and let me add not the frothiness of Nov 2021 either.
currently we are off the ATH on the SPX by ~5% and the Nasdaq by ~12%.
DOW? also ~5%
inflation is cooling and that along with the AI craze are the two main drivers of our melt up.
as someone already mentioned, AI *should* bring up company profits and realization rates across most industries and we know that cooling inflation is almost always good for profits.
get ready for tremendous Q2 earnings and extremely favorable forward guidance by all of the CAPS whether mega, large, medium or small.Comment -
Regarding the S&P 500 p/e ratio, we're not, but we're not off by much. We're in the mid-20s now, in the upper 20s in 2000, and that was still enough for a short, mild recession to cut the S&P 500 in half. If earnings drop a little bit we can be back to where we were in 2000.
Other indicators, like bullish % or % of stocks above their 50 & 200-day moving averages are at overbought levels, levels where you get trend reversals that last months.
We'll start with government tax receipts. Every time it crashes to -5 or more year over year (the red horizontal line), it coincides with a recession. We are there now.
Permanent job losers are creeping up again, up to almost 19. We're higher than we were in February 2000 (a recession began in March) and September 2007 ( a recession began in December)
Banks needing help is going parabolic
Real GDI is negative year over year. Every other time this has happened since WWII, we've had a recession.
M2 is negative year over year. This is the 5th time this has happened since the Civil War. In other instances, it coincided with either panics or depressions.
The yield curve has been inverted for over a year and in terms of the ratio of the inversion, it's never been more inverted. In terms of basis points it's the most inverted in roughly 40 years. Core PCE was up .3% month over month. I know annualizing 1 month's worth of data isn't a great idea, but it would be 3.6% annualized. The past 6 months of core PCE is 4.8% annualized, and the Fed wants us at 2%. I seriously doubt the Fed will be cutting rates this year, meaning we would have to be inverted for 1.5 years at a minimum and see no recession, which I think we're on the cusp of. If one doesn't start this year I'd be shocked.Comment -
Yeah, but what do all of those charts have in common? Crazy spikes up and down coinciding with covid stuff. There is no analogy to that, so you can't look at direction. I think it's just a lot of noise. And you're citing percentage changes that are skewed with that. I'd say be careful if you're just trying to find something to support what you wanted to find. Just a little too creative here IMO. But we'll see. There is still room for the Fed to screw this up.Regarding the S&P 500 p/e ratio, we're not, but we're not off by much. We're in the mid-20s now, in the upper 20s in 2000, and that was still enough for a short, mild recession to cut the S&P 500 in half. If earnings drop a little bit we can be back to where we were in 2000.
Other indicators, like bullish % or % of stocks above their 50 & 200-day moving averages are at overbought levels, levels where you get trend reversals that last months.
We'll start with government tax receipts. Every time it crashes to -5 or more year over year (the red horizontal line), it coincides with a recession. We are there now.
Permanent job losers are creeping up again, up to almost 19. We're higher than we were in February 2000 (a recession began in March) and September 2007 ( a recession began in December)
Banks needing help is going parabolic
Real GDI is negative year over year. Every other time this has happened since WWII, we've had a recession.
M2 is negative year over year. This is the 5th time this has happened since the Civil War. In other instances, it coincided with either panics or depressions.
The yield curve has been inverted for over a year and in terms of the ratio of the inversion, it's never been more inverted. In terms of basis points it's the most inverted in roughly 40 years. Core PCE was up .3% month over month. I know annualizing 1 month's worth of data isn't a great idea, but it would be 3.6% annualized. The past 6 months of core PCE is 4.8% annualized, and the Fed wants us at 2%. I seriously doubt the Fed will be cutting rates this year, meaning we would have to be inverted for 1.5 years at a minimum and see no recession, which I think we're on the cusp of. If one doesn't start this year I'd be shocked.Comment -
I'm right with ya guitarjosh. Early this year I was buying PUTS to expire in late December. Needless to say that was not the right move and I had to get out of that position with about a 40% loss before I got on the Long train. As of now starting this week, I'm back on the Puts train. Slowly at first, but as the end of the month wears on and August hits, I'll be adding to the position. I used to call this the steel Ibeam pattern, which is where the big money takes out their cash as the retailer gets in. I think I saw a graphic where we are in the extreme greed zone for stock buying. That and a bunch of other stuff I look at are telling me to take profits now and hang on for the catalyst. I think that catalyst will be the collapse of Ukraine. No one reports on it yet but they are barely hanging on there with Russia in full control and no desire to negotiate now that they have all the cards on their side. Don't forget the announcement of the BRICS currency is coming later in August. Add it all up and you got a few good reasons to at the very least take a little profit here if you have long positions that have profits.Comment -
I keep adding PYPL on every dip…this is going to $100 once we break $80Comment -
i agree.
but i have also picked up that you and Slurry both of right leans politically.
you want to be careful about that also.
you might dislike the guy in the WH right right or the "woke lefties" but you have to be careful about letting it color your world.
nearly everyone i read online and in my circle of friends, thought the market was going to tank this year "Winter is Coming" etc etc etc.
i held my nose and ignored the noise and last year i bought the big drops in march, june, sept, and december. every quarter.
it is documented right in this thread.
this market, barring some major cataclysmic event, is going north the remainder of the year.Comment -
While I've ridden the majority of the ride with you it's time to take a little of the table. I followed my own advice a week 10 days ago and lost a little off. I'm in prime position here to take advantage of a dip. Just thinking higher and higher is awaiting a fall.
BOL to all!!Comment -
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Anyone have T or VZ? I don't, but the move down lately is pretty crazy. I kind of know what's going on, but is it overblown? The dividends now are quite high, although I imagine many owned before for the dividends and are none too happy about now. Id this a buy cheap and hold?Comment -
I was a raging bull through all of 2021 and didn't turn bearish on the economy until the past few months. I don't understand how anyone can look at the graphs I posted above + a yield curve that has been extremely inverted over a year and not see a problem. My issue with the stock market is that we're at levels that usually precede a reversal. The bullish % on the S&P 500 closed today at 78.2%, and on the Nasdaq 100 is 80. 84% of the stocks on the Nasdaq 100 are above their 50-day moving averages, and 81% are above their 200-day moving averages. When you get all that at over 75, it's at best going to go sideways for a while, but more likely fall.Comment -
On turn around Tuesday I'm starting to slowly build my long term (Jan 24ish) Put position, while continuing to buy short term ( This Friday) calls in all the indices. After BkofAma and JPM report this morning I'll be looking to load up on the PUTS in the banks as well. Kind lof mixed bag for me, but several index funds are at an "important spot", above and I'll place more on the long side, below, and I'll hang onto more short positions and wait for another important spot to add or switch back to long.Comment -
wait till wall st finds out about Pfizer and Moderna toxic poison kill shots.
already making money on those PUTS. OTM.
and yes to do well you have to be ahead of the curve and others.
Right now people still think "vaccines" are great and even taking their kids in to get the 8th shot.
BIG mistake.
watch what happens. :-0Comment -
keep pushing it higher,
have a look.
95% of people are making a big mistake.
He will huff and he will puff and blow the house down!
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