Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[d2bets]

OK its time to get rid of those calls I got Tuesday. This play has worked pretty much as I thought it would. Today will get progressively less busy and just like in Gymnastics and porn movies, the finish can be all the difference between a good showing and a disastrous outcome. For the SPY, I'm first looking for a gap fill at $439.40 to begin with, that' 9 bucks worth of gain on a 4 dollar start. The QQQs are a little more muted but the exit starting point today is the $366.30 spot which is only about 6 bucks gain on a 4 dollar start. Either way, taking a more than 100 or 200 percent gain right before the holiday will have me celebrating.

Looks like some nice market cheer heading into the holiday weekend capping off a super strong first half of the year. I continue to think the market might make new highs before the end of this year.

[Slurry Pumper]

Looks like some nice market cheer heading into the holiday weekend capping off a super strong first half of the year. I continue to think the market might make new highs before the end of this year.

I'm looking at the bond market telling me that doom and gloom is a coming, but the stocks are full steam ahead. I trust the bond market more and think a rude awakening is coming sometime later in the year, but it just may be a correction and not a complete collapse. I've taken a slight bath on my long term doom and gloom strategies this year, and my call of tech being dead is laughable to this point in the year due to a couple of stocks.
My tin foil hat is in operation with the new roll out of Bidenomics. Sure he's brain dead, stupid and can't remember his own name most of the time, but what he does do well is make shifty underhanded deals to benefit his interest, and right now going into the election, he has got something going on with the economy. As a poker player he would be lousy because of his tells, and he has that look lately like there is something in the works.

[homie1975]

melt up continues.

i am not fighting the tape.

[Snowball]

melt up continues.

i am not fighting the tape.

It's just a cup formation to the June 16th High. 4386.22
Now it has to close above that June 16th High, or it's a bearish indicator.
About a point under now.

[d2bets]

It's just a cup formation to the June 16th High. 4386.22
Now it has to close above that June 16th High, or it's a bearish indicator.
About a point under now.

Been way above 4386.22 all day. 4,450 now (+1.24%).

[Madison]

I'm looking at the bond market telling me that doom and gloom is a coming, but the stocks are full steam ahead. I trust the bond market more and think a rude awakening is coming sometime later in the year, but it just may be a correction and not a complete collapse. I've taken a slight bath on my long term doom and gloom strategies this year, and my call of tech being dead is laughable to this point in the year due to a couple of stocks.
My tin foil hat is in operation with the new roll out of Bidenomics. Sure he's brain dead, stupid and can't remember his own name most of the time, but what he does do well is make shifty underhanded deals to benefit his interest, and right now going into the election, he has got something going on with the economy. As a poker player he would be lousy because of his tells, and he has that look lately like there is something in the works.

My tin foil hat is in operation with the new roll out of Bidenomics. Sure he's brain dead, stupid and can't remember his own name most of the time, but what he does do well is make shifty underhanded deals to benefit his interest, and right now going into the election, he has got something going on with the economy. As a poker player he would be lousy because of his tells, and he has that look lately like there is something in the works.

Bidenomics ... Can I puke now. Who comes up with this shyt for him. And yeah, let's add more to or debt with student loan forgiveness which most of us have repaid for generations.

"A Look" ... Like he's clueless and stumbling to find the next fabrication his feeble mind is about to espouse.

I pray we don't end with a Biden/Trump rematch. What a joke/tragedy. God help us we don't have a real tragedy with JB in control. Other countries must be laughing at us!!

[Madison]

melt up continues.

i am not fighting the tape.

The president of buy and hold. Like you would??

[homie1975]

The president of buy and hold. Like you would??

hahahaha

[homie1975]

The president of buy and hold. Like you would??

I might look to take some profits at some point soon. Just take a little something off the table, as I agree with Slurry and do not fully trust this move higher since 1/1.

[d2bets]

My tin foil hat is in operation with the new roll out of Bidenomics. Sure he's brain dead, stupid and can't remember his own name most of the time, but what he does do well is make shifty underhanded deals to benefit his interest, and right now going into the election, he has got something going on with the economy. As a poker player he would be lousy because of his tells, and he has that look lately like there is something in the works.

Bidenomics ... Can I puke now. Who comes up with this shyt for him. And yeah, let's add more to or debt with student loan forgiveness which most of us have repaid for generations.

"A Look" ... Like he's clueless and stumbling to find the next fabrication his feeble mind is about to espouse.

I pray we don't end with a Biden/Trump rematch. What a joke/tragedy. God help us we don't have a real tragedy with JB in control. Other countries must be laughing at us!!

Business loan full forgiveness is fine but student loan partial forgiveness isn't?

[ex50warrior]

...I'm hoping they get around to home loan forgiveness next!

[milwaukee mike]

Business loan full forgiveness is fine but student loan partial forgiveness isn't?

those small business loans were dumb too... but at least they were meant to pay employees while the government forced their business to shut down. nobody forced anyone to go to college, and student loan forgiveness is pretty much a handout to doctors

i turned down free money for me and my son, didn't want to be a mooch, now i just feel like a moron since my business closed anyway

[d2bets]

those small business loans were dumb too... but at least they were meant to pay employees while the government forced their business to shut down. nobody forced anyone to go to college, and student loan forgiveness is pretty much a handout to doctors

i turned down free money for me and my son, didn't want to be a mooch, now i just feel like a moron since my business closed anyway

If I'm not mistaken, there is an income limit on the forgiveness, so that's not typically going to be the case.

You should have taken what you were entitled to. My office qualified, so I did it. Probably could have done the second one too, but didn't.

[Madison]

I might look to take some profits at some point soon. Just take a little something off the table, as I agree with Slurry and do not fully trust this move higher since 1/1.

My belief, and that of many professional money managers, believe this to be a sound long term strategy. The strategy is wonderful when you can buyback at a lower price, however it takes years and years to manage the art/stomach for the buyback when the position tracks higher. Sort of like a CB or Kicker in the NFL. You need a short memory and conviction that your decision at the time was of sound thinking.

One of my long term friends and gambling mentors always reminds me, "You never lose $ taking a profit.

Anyway, I would definitely be a proponent of the strategy.

All my best, and happy 4th to you and yours.

[Madison]

Business loan full forgiveness is fine but student loan partial forgiveness isn't?

Personally, I'm fine with the control being "Debtor pays no more than x% of their disposable income". Just you, took the $$, now pay it back. This generation and society in general with always looking for a handout/bailout is ruining our society and work ethic.

[Madison]

those small business loans were dumb too... but at least they were meant to pay employees while the government forced their business to shut down. nobody forced anyone to go to college, and student loan forgiveness is pretty much a handout to doctors

i turned down free money for me and my son, didn't want to be a mooch, now i just feel like a moron since my business closed anyway

For over a decade our wonderful GOV charged 7-8% stafford loans to our youth when nominal rates were ZERO. This was a travesty in and of itself. I paid my daughters 46K in loans at circa 7.5% and made her pay me back at 2.9% which was my mortgage at the time.

[milwaukee mike]

If I'm not mistaken, there is an income limit on the forgiveness, so that's not typically going to be the case.

You should have taken what you were entitled to. My office qualified, so I did it. Probably could have done the second one too, but didn't.

yeah i know... but i have that stupid thing called pride

would qualify for free health insurance and food stamps too but i don't take them, don't want to be that guy that pulls up to the grocery store in a maserati and pays with an EBT card lol

[Madison]

yeah i know... but i have that stupid thing called pride

would qualify for free health insurance and food stamps too but i don't take them, don't want to be that guy that pulls up to the grocery store in a maserati and pays with an EBT card lol

Recently heard Ferrari (RACE) has entry level model 800K with a 3 year waiting list. This is a poor mans recession ... IE 40-60% of the population couldn't afford an unexpected $500 bill. And the wealthy just keep spending.

[d2bets]

Recently heard Ferrari (RACE) has entry level model 800K with a 3 year waiting list. This is a poor mans recession ... IE 40-60% of the population couldn't afford an unexpected $500 bill. And the wealthy just keep spending.

Very true. The poor are stretched thin, but they'll "get by" as long as they don't lose their job. That is to say that if the unemployment rate continues low and inflation continues to abate, there will not be any significant recession.

[veriableodds]

Recently heard Ferrari (RACE) has entry level model 800K with a 3 year waiting list. This is a poor mans recession ... IE 40-60% of the population couldn't afford an unexpected $500 bill. And the wealthy just keep spending.

So relatively true. Anyone who has amassed 2m or more as in savings contribution, matched, capital appreciation, years of working ect ect. Anyone who has followed that path does not have debt, has no mortgage, or crazy ass car payment that you cannot work on yourself/cost $200-m/o to just drive even if paid off. They can invest in super low risk type investments and the net worth just keeps accumulating, while living a very very comfortable life. The regular joe blow well I really don't know what to say. You would figure when you have a good crisis in life say 22 or before in age they would figure it out. Who in the right mind says I want to be a slave the rest of my days??

[Slurry Pumper]

Markets are at an interesting spot now with my favorite market indicator taking a dive yesterday ( IWM). The rest of the index funds are hanging out at recent high points just waiting or gaining energy to push further up. The trend is your friend until you catch the trend trying to bang your girlfriend. I'm in the camp of up up and away until the rug gets pulled. We are at a spot where that trap door can open, but so far this year the markets have pushed ahead.

[Slurry Pumper]

Just like most things with the U.S. government lately, I gotta call bullshyt on the jobs report. 500k jobs in a month is just blatantly pissing on my leg and telling us that it is raining.

[chico2663]

Just like most things with the U.S. government lately, I gotta call bullshyt on the jobs report. 500k jobs in a month is just blatantly pissing on my leg and telling us that it is raining.

Spoken like a true Trump deciple. Really not hard when you start bringing factories back. Or spend a shitload on roads. It bridges that needed fixed since the 80’s. Shame my former party can’t join the picture. Not a Biden fan but hard to bitch except that fuccer allowed corporations to jack the rates up and call it inflation. Big Mac meal used to be 4.99.(probably why I spent 8 days in a coma) Hell it is 11.00 now. Trump could have went down as the best if he would have got roads down as Biden has. But he was too busy taking care of the rich. Asshole took away mileage and home interest on taxes. In my job I used to drive 80 k miles a year with 50 k being work related mileage. Unless someone works for a company that pays mileage for employer they are now collectively fucced.

thanks for allowing me to rant.

[milwaukee mike]

Spoken like a true Trump deciple. Really not hard when you start bringing factories back. Or spend a shitload on roads. It bridges that needed fixed since the 80’s. Shame my former party can’t join the picture. Not a Biden fan but hard to bitch except that fuccer allowed corporations to jack the rates up and call it inflation. Big Mac meal used to be 4.99.(probably why I spent 8 days in a coma) Hell it is 11.00 now. Trump could have went down as the best if he would have got roads down as Biden has. But he was too busy taking care of the rich. Asshole took away mileage and home interest on taxes. In my job I used to drive 80 k miles a year with 50 k being work related mileage. Unless someone works for a company that pays mileage for employer they are now collectively fucced.

thanks for allowing me to rant.

you can still claim mortgage interest on your taxes, if you get a w-2 then you're right no deduction for unreimbursed employee expenses like mileage... but most places reimburse that or pay you accordingly

[d2bets]

you can still claim mortgage interest on your taxes, if you get a w-2 then you're right no deduction for unreimbursed employee expenses like mileage... but most places reimburse that or pay you accordingly

As you know, state, local and property taxes are capped at $10k. So unless you have a massive mortgage, it's not going to be enough to be higher than the standard deduction. So while you can technically deduct mortgage interest if you itemize, a huge portion of people who deducted mortgage interest before 2018, now don't.

2025 will be an interesting year. Much of the TCJA changes expire at the end of 2025.

[trobin31]

I’ve been buying up some PayPal PYPL going into next earnings

PYPL had a nice puke and has been range bound while they’ve been buying back shares and rolling out banking and credit services through Venmo etc. I think their earnings in late July are gonna fuk some azz. Also the cheapest it’s been in awhile as well as remaining the biggest Mandingo in online payments

[ChuckyTheGoat]

George Gammon is calling for a pretty big Stock Mkt downturn.

[homie1975]

George Gammon is calling for a pretty big Stock Mkt downturn.

he is known for his real estate investing right? if so, he wants people to flee the market and head to RE so his investments go up.

i cannot recall who it was but a famous market investor just predicted a week ago that the second half of 2023 will see new ATH's in all three indexes.

so these two guys cancel each other out.

everyone has an opinion these days..........

[ex50warrior]

As you know, state, local and property taxes are capped at $10k. So unless you have a massive mortgage, it's not going to be enough to be higher than the standard deduction. So while you can technically deduct mortgage interest if you itemize, a huge portion of people who deducted mortgage interest before 2018, now don't.
2025 will be an interesting year. Much of the TCJA changes expire at the end of 2025.

That's true for many married taxpayers. But much easier for a single person with $10K in SALT to reach the
itemized threshold.

[d2bets]

That's true for many married taxpayers. But much easier for a single person with $10K in SALT to reach the
itemized threshold.

Yeah, so Trump made the marriage penalty worse.

[Slurry Pumper]

Another rare stock pick for me today as I'm shorting the FLS right here at the $37 spot. FLS is pretty much my competitor in the slurry pumping world, and actually they don't even know I exist due to their size and abiity to make money despite their actions, but at $37 they are at a spot of resistance, and a good place to short them. If the price breaks out, I jump out and lick my wounds on a weekly close above $39 so I am giving it a little space here.

[Slurry Pumper]

Another rare stock pick for me today as I'm shorting the FLS right here at the $37 spot. FLS is pretty much my competitor in the slurry pumping world, and actually they don't even know I exist due to their size and abiity to make money despite their actions, but at $37 they are at a spot of resistance, and a good place to short them. If the price breaks out, I jump out and lick my wounds on a weekly close above $39 so I am giving it a little space here.

FLS got a little boost this morning and I had to wait until just now to short this thing at $37.80. This makes my get out price a little better to deal with as I wait for the down action.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

and yet i can still find tons of cheap/undervalued stuff... stocks/bonds/preferreds

"it's not a stock market, it's a market of stocks"

amcx trading at a p/e of less than 2... btu less than 3... lol

BTU doing pretty well. Keep it going, Mike.

[homie1975]

melt up continues...........

[Slurry Pumper]

Yepper, more financial news coming out today and I'm still in the trend is your friend until the end camp. The banks come out with earnings later this week and I suspect the big boys were making money hand over fist while the little guys are barely hanging on. I've been long XLF for the last week and I even bought all the big bank with the exception of BkofAma because I can't stand them so much that I can even use their stock as a means to make money. They pissed me off that much a few years ago. Gonna add to my Flowserve short as it gets closer to the $39 dollar range. If it closes a week above that level, I'll come in on the next Monday and buy back the shares.