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OK the SPY did indeed close below the 200 DMA yesterday so I think the slide is on. My favorite leading index indicators IWM and the Dow transports got smoked pretty good and so far this morning the rebound hasn't been too impressive. For the IWM, it will need to get to and stay above the $184.50 on hourly closing candles for a rescue operation to take hold. On the down side below yesterday's low of $182 will spell trouble for hourly closes, and below $180 is a line in the sand for da bulls.
The transports need to first get to 14165 which is the 200 DMA for any chance to get me to believe anything to the upside has legs and 14300 is a goal for the end of the day if you're in the bull camp. For short side players 14050 is yesterday's low mark and pretty much where it closed. A run to the 100 DMA of 13760ish is the next stop after they lose the 14000 spot.Comment -
I was going to wait until next week but I think the next downturn/leg is in ... shorting. Right Slurry?Comment -
Yeah, I'm on the PUT train here with SPY, QQQ, and IWM for the next month or so. I do supplement with calls with next day expirations when inflection points are reached for each, but my overall feeling is a little bit of a dump here for the next couple of weeks before the Christmas rally. Maybe even new lows but I'm not banking on that. I'll be happy with a pullback to $390 on SPY, and would like $380 better which is where I think it goes before Xmas.Comment -
recession fears overtaking inflation fears
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Well the SPY came down to one of those inflection spots or the 100 DMA where I bought some Calls that expire tomorrow. Got a little bounce so far and lets see how it goes tomorrow.
We got the same thing going on in the QQQ squad but the price today tested the break up candle from when the Fed came out and said some stuff. Either way it was a inflection point that I identified as a possible spot for a short term reversal.
The same thing happen with IWM at $179, but I didn't buy these. $179 is a line I put on my chart but it was long enough ago to where I forgot why. I looked at this spot and it is having an effect on price when it gets near that area, so I probably should have jumped on the 1 day call train.Comment -
Thanks to milwaukee mike for VRA.
I looked into it after you wrote about it and bought a nice chunk and so far its up 50%.
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merger monday was quite the scene.
CPI tomorrow and Fed decision on Weds.
LFG !!!Comment -
The SPY is squarely in a range since mid November. We got a little pullback to the 100 DMA and now it is the run back up. This morning after they tell us that inflation is at the low low number of 7.2% We'll have a rip you a new one rally and possibly a follow through when the Fed marches out tomorrow to announce the 50 point rate hike. All of this may push the tape past the resistance levels of the 200 DMA, 403 and then 410. We may even top out at around 420 before the year is out and at that point we can all say it was only a 12.5% down year for the SPY.
But what if the numbers go the other way and we get a number that is 8% or more? Well in that case the market will drop like a stone because that will signal the FED to keep it up with the rate hikes and that is bad for the markets going forward. The SPY would undoubtably crash through the $393 support level today and head for the 50DMA at $384. It would then be up to the FED tomorrow for more market movement.
Either way I see today as a big mover day. My bets are on the upside, but I could just as easily reverse course and go with the slide down if need be.Comment -
Christmas comes early. Ding dong inflation's dead lol.Comment -
Holy rally sell off !!!Comment -
weird stuff to be sure
meme stocks went into a huge selloff, even stuff like mara took a quick 15% crapper, with bitcoin way up
there really are a lot of stocks/bonds that seem to be trading totally detached from reality... preferreds like vno-o under 14 when they're worth 25Comment -
Yeah what a crazy ass day.Comment -
A gap followed by a big crap with a about as close as it comes to a gap fill without actually filling the gap. Usually I see a almost gap fill as a we'll be back later.Comment -
FJBComment -
most likely STFR crowd who does not believe in a big run so once the DOW went +1200 (+500 yday plus +700 today) they decided it was time to take the profits (or lower losses overall).
in a bear market (and scared one thinking about recession all the time) the rips are ripe opps to take profits or lessen losses, and i think that's what we got.Comment -
Well the action yesterday with a gap not quite filled has me looking for the sell off. Today at 2 the 50 point hike will come in as expected but when Powell trots out he will talk the market down like last time. Line in the sand is the low from yesterday. Even if we get a pop the SPY needs to get above $410 for me to even sniff a long trade.Comment -
markets are more random than sportsComment -
Lots of bad things going on in the world.
Not surprised one bit Goldman sees Commodities as strongest performer in 2023.
In light of high rates to continue, that's somewhat ironic. Shows the full blown currency problems.Comment -
of course! but you are one of the 1% who can do it often.
the other 99% of us will miss more tops and bottoms than we will call and it will cost us long term.
IMO better for the 99% "non milwaukee mike's" to build a position slowly while it is on the way down rather than try to time it.
trust me.Comment -
A beat down yesterday took the markets out of the range it has been in for since early November. This morning it looks like a continuation so we'll see if there is a rescue operation. My Puts I have been buying up are starting to pay off just in time after a few short term losses. Another sizable down day today and I will have to take some profits while letting the rest rideComment
