Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[d2bets]

Strong action buying into the early dip. This rally may have legs.

[chico2663]

I had to get out and buy some goog. Although I am sure it will be lower this summer.

[homie1975]

Strong action buying into the early dip. This rally may have legs.

every rally since 1/1/2022 has fizzled and sold off eventually.

let's see how long this can sustain and if it will last in time for Santa Claus.

[d2bets]

every rally since 1/1/2022 has fizzled and sold off eventually.

let's see how long this can sustain and if it will last in time for Santa Claus.

I think this has legs. I flipped to bullish at the end of September. One of the rare times I may have timed it right.
S&P 500 flirting with 4k.

[milwaukee mike]

I think this has legs. I flipped to bullish at the end of September. One of the rare times I may have timed it right.
S&P 500 flirting with 4k.

good call

once october was over, i guessed that the possibility of a crash went down close to 0

remember when homie said nobody can pick bottoms on individual stocks? well i pretty much did that lately with wynn and vra... both up somewhere around 40% in a heartbeat

[d2bets]

good call

once october was over, i guessed that the possibility of a crash went down close to 0

remember when homie said nobody can pick bottoms on individual stocks? well i pretty much did that lately with wynn and vra... both up somewhere around 40% in a heartbeat

I bought some good ones and monitored vra for awhile, but never pulled the trigger. I did, however, buy GRWG at $3.49 just a few weeks ago. I think that was you that mentioned it. Up like 70%. I didn't have any weed in my portfolio, so figured that made sense.

[milwaukee mike]

I bought some good ones and monitored vra for awhile, but never pulled the trigger. I did, however, buy GRWG at $3.49 just a few weeks ago. I think that was you that mentioned it. Up like 70%. I didn't have any weed in my portfolio, so figured that made sense.

i've gotten buried on cgc and others... definitely lost more on weed (the product AND the stocks) than i have ever made!

trying to time the overall market? i suck... but i can occasionally spot great bargains in individual companies

[homie1975]

good call

once october was over, i guessed that the possibility of a crash went down close to 0

remember when homie said nobody can pick bottoms on individual stocks? well i pretty much did that lately with wynn and vra... both up somewhere around 40% in a heartbeat

very few can, and they will miss more bottoms than they will pick.

well done.

you did something that is extremely rare and difficult to do.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well ever since coming back from South America a few weeks ago I haven't been able to make the right moves and a losing streak has ensued. I keep trying however so true to form before the bell on Friday, I dipped my toes into a few PUTS in the IWM, QQQ, and SPY indices. These puts don't expire until the end of the year, and I expect to add to them in the upcoming weeks regardless of the initial movement. This latest rally has run its course and reality will settle in when investors realize that inflation is still way high, earnings are way low, the election isn't going to change the governmental course of action, and the FED will probably still raise rates 50 basis points. I am in the camp of the FED reducing the rate of raising the rates, but only because the debt payments will make him do so. I believe the latest CPI report will give him the reason to say that he is making progress in December. Between now and when he comes out to speak however, I think it is time for a pullback.
Also think The Russians start to go scorched earth on the Ukrainians starting when it gets cold enough for your piss to freeze as soon as it hits the ground which will probably be around December. An elevation in air strikes of non-nuke related bombs on infrastructure will certainly hurt the Ukrainian people in places that have been largely left alone for the last few months.

[milwaukee mike]

very few can, and they will miss more bottoms than they will pick.

well done.

you did something that is extremely rare and difficult to do.

i've done it (within a couple % of the bottom) at least 5-10 times just in this thread

it's like saying 95% of all sports gamblers are losers... well in life there are that many losers, doesn't mean there aren't a ton of smart people/gamblers/investors

[d2bets]

I bought some good ones and monitored vra for awhile, but never pulled the trigger. I did, however, buy GRWG at $3.49 just a few weeks ago. I think that was you that mentioned it. Up like 70%. I didn't have any weed in my portfolio, so figured that made sense.

Surging again today, $6.41 . Almost a double in a week. Take a quick profit or how high can this ride? GRWG was over $60 last year. Not really sure what's driving this. Doesn't really seem like weed stocks are surging that much generally.

[milwaukee mike]

Surging again today, $6.41 . Almost a double in a week. Take a quick profit or how high can this ride? GRWG was over $60 last year. Not really sure what's driving this. Doesn't really seem like weed stocks are surging that much generally.

i still like it, a big short interest that can be squeezed

if you can trade options and want to lock in some profits, i would sell some calls, the december 7.50s are going for 47 cents... that's almost 8%/month for something pretty far out of the money

[JIBBBY]

Investors are getting out of Crypto and investing back in the stock market.

[d2bets]

i still like it, a big short interest that can be squeezed

if you can trade options and want to lock in some profits, i would sell some calls, the december 7.50s are going for 47 cents... that's almost 8%/month for something pretty far out of the money

Thanks. Nah. I'm a buy and hold kind of guy.

Also on somebody's call I added SE to my Roth recently. Up 40% today.

[d2bets]

Investors are getting out of Crypto and investing back in the stock market.

4,200 EOY
5,000 end of 23
6,000 end of 24
I've turned bullish
Think inflation is quickly abating and we avoid any kind of serious recession

[milwaukee mike]

Thanks. Nah. I'm a buy and hold kind of guy.

Also on somebody's call I added SE to my Roth recently. Up 40% today.

buy and hold until when though? 8%/month on a company that might never make a profit again is a pretty good return... that stock isn't going back to 60 or even 20

[d2bets]

buy and hold until when though? 8%/month on a company that might never make a profit again is a pretty good return... that stock isn't going back to 60 or even 20

What are your favorite buy and hold "forever" plays that also have multibagger potential? Or at least hold 10 years sort of thing. Need some capital gains to fund early retirement. Sell during no income years at 0 cap gains tax. Almost 50 and getting tired of the working grind.

My early retirement age 55 strategy is 4 buckets: pretax retirement, Roths, taxable investments and cash.
55-60 cap gains and cash
60-67 Traditional withdrawals and cash
67+ SS and trad withdrawals
Roths as the backstop
Maybe a little inheritance, hopefully many years down the road

[milwaukee mike]

if you're gonna hold 10 years, i would go with preferred stocks that are still in the dumps, they were cheaper a couple weeks ago but still solid 8% or so on a bunch of them... i guess gun to my head i would go

usb-q
vno-o
bhr-b
vra
coke (the bottler, not ko)

those don't really have multi-bagger potential, except vra... but i think we each have plenty of money that we don't need to make 10 million or anything

i quit working at 48 and will never work again, the life of leisure is really fantastic

[d2bets]

if you're gonna hold 10 years, i would go with preferred stocks that are still in the dumps, they were cheaper a couple weeks ago but still solid 8% or so on a bunch of them... i guess gun to my head i would go

usb-q
vno-o
bhr-b
vra
coke (the bottler, not ko)

those don't really have multi-bagger potential, except vra... but i think we each have plenty of money that we don't need to make 10 million or anything

i quit working at 48 and will never work again, the life of leisure is really fantastic

Nice! I turn 48 next week. Too much family stuff to retire just yet. 55 is a fun goal. I sort of work 16/7 now between regular job and sports. I can handle the grind for now, but not forever. I don't expect the sports thing to last forever, so I'll grind it while I can.

I don't want more dividends in my taxable accounts. I want growth, even if I win some lose some. So that I can have some nice capital gains to recognize hopefully at 0 tax after income dries up but before IRA withdrawals and SS. Already have one huge winner with Nvidia. If only I had put 10x more in it back in 09. I ain't selling either. Still think that can multibag more for awhile.

[milwaukee mike]

Nice! I turn 48 next week. Too much family stuff to retire just yet. 55 is a fun goal. I sort of work 16/7 now between regular job and sports. I can handle the grind for now, but not forever. I don't expect the sports thing to last forever, so I'll grind it while I can.

I don't want more dividends in my taxable accounts. I want growth, even if I win some lose some. So that I can have some nice capital gains to recognize hopefully at 0 tax after income dries up but before IRA withdrawals and SS. Already have one huge winner with Nvidia. If only I had put 10x more in it back in 09. I ain't selling either. Still think that can multibag more for awhile.

qualified dividends are also 0 tax, to the same extent as long-term capital gains... and if you buy a preferred at 15, when it gets repaid at 25 that is also capital gain

bhr, the dividends over the past few years have almost all been return of principal (nontaxable no matter what) and long-term cap gain

good one with nvda, keep in mind i thought penn could be 200 instead of 140, now it's 37... thought btc could be 200k instead of 67k now it's 16k, etc etc... can always at least pull a little off the table each month/year

there are 2 types of companies, those that have problems, and those that WILL have problems

try to make a list of tech stocks that thrived for more than a decade, real short list

[Slurry Pumper]

Kind of just hanging around waiting for the most recent move to Peter out here. Gold is finally showing some life and gold miners are doing better runs up percentage wise than most.

[Yulia74]

biggest recession signal?

amazon is planning to layoff around 10,000 employees before holidays

[Yulia74]

target said net income dropped by 52% as inflation has brought consumer spending to a halt, said that theft is up by 50%, and the company lost $400+ million in stolen inventory.

people are feeling the pain

[Yulia74]

credit card balances in the US increased 15% over the last year, the biggest jump since the 2001 recession.

[milwaukee mike]

i wonder if target and other companies will ever admit they were wrong, when they all went "woke" and loved blm rioters/thieves/defund police/da's run by soros that let criminals run free

my dad's car has been stolen twice this year, nobody i know had ever even had their car stolen once in their lifetime

and they all say it is "targeted groups of shoplifters" instead of the truth, ghetto trash that doesn't get punished

[Slurry Pumper]

So far this week I'm still waiting on the downturn to happen. Sure the markets have made some moves down a little bit, but nothing that says its going down. We could still find ourselves with higher prices and the charts at this point are making a bull flag on the daily chart. For this reason, I am holding my water with adding to some PUT options that expire at the end of the year.

[Slurry Pumper]

Finally a down futures market that I think may be tradable for any of those scalp or day trader types. I'm a buyer on tomorrow's expiration of calls for the SPY when it gets down to the 100 DMA or around $390ish. How about the QQQs the buy the dippers love that stuff? Well lets go for $281.50ish spot, the 50 DMA is too far down I think for a real buy the dip and come back up type of day. If the 50 DMA is not held, we are probably looking at a larger down day and the buy the dip challenge will have been a losing play.
IWM can get in on the act at around $181.50 for a bounce and ride play today.

Still looking for some downside action in the next few weeks, but we probably need a day or 2 in the SPY where they close above the $400 spot and maybe make a run or 2 for the 200 DMA before taking a dump.

[JIBBBY]

credit card balances in the US increased 15% over the last year, the biggest jump since the 2001 recession.

That's why you have to pay off your credditt card debt every month in full to avoid those interest rate charges. Highway robbery if you don't!

[Madison]

That's why you have to pay off your credditt card debt every month in full to avoid those interest rate charges. Highway robbery if you don't!

TRUE ... Interest is EVIL in EVERY way except one ... When you can use borrowed monies and earn more GUARANTEED returns than the interest you borrowed.

I'm not rich by any means but WAY WAY ahead of the game by following that for many decades. DO NOT PAY THE MAN!!!

[Slurry Pumper]

Finally a down futures market that I think may be tradable for any of those scalp or day trader types. I'm a buyer on tomorrow's expiration of calls for the SPY when it gets down to the 100 DMA or around $390ish. How about the QQQs the buy the dippers love that stuff? Well lets go for $281.50ish spot, the 50 DMA is too far down I think for a real buy the dip and come back up type of day. If the 50 DMA is not held, we are probably looking at a larger down day and the buy the dip challenge will have been a losing play.
IWM can get in on the act at around $181.50 for a bounce and ride play today.

Still looking for some downside action in the next few weeks, but we probably need a day or 2 in the SPY where they close above the $400 spot and maybe make a run or 2 for the 200 DMA before taking a dump.

OK lets review:

I said I'll take SPY at $390ish, the low of day was $390.14 which by definition is "ish", bought the Calls at ($390.30) that expire tomorrow for a couple of bucks and it ran back up to close at $394.28 which is better than a doubling. It was actually higher earlier in the day, but whatever. I sold half and added a little bit to my PUTS I've been nursing for the pullback that is coming.

Then I also said I was going to buy the QQQs call options at around $281.50ish. Well the low of day was $280.72 which is a little more than ish, but I grabbed it anyway at $281 and it never looked back. Closed at $284.82, but I sold half when it took a dump intraday at $285. Took that profit an put a little bit into the PUTS I got a few days ago.

How about the IWM? Well the low of day for that was a buck lower than I thought at $180.51 and this one didn't do as well but still a couple of bucks from the $180.75 is great when the call is around 2 bucks to begin with.

Bottom line is all the losses from the last month were erased and now I'm in the black going into the holiday.

I still have half of everything I bought today, I rolled some profits into the PUTS I got earlier in the week to cost average up actually since those are in the money now, and still have calls for tomorrow to sell.

It was a good day for the Pumper today. Now if I can get Tennessee to beat up on the Pack but not score too many points, I wont need a happy ending from the 'ole lady to make it a great week.

[milwaukee mike]

OK lets review:

I said I'll take SPY at $390ish, the low of day was $390.14 which by definition is "ish", bought the Calls at ($390.30) that expire tomorrow for a couple of bucks and it ran back up to close at $394.28 which is better than a doubling. It was actually higher earlier in the day, but whatever. I sold half and added a little bit to my PUTS I've been nursing for the pullback that is coming.

Then I also said I was going to buy the QQQs call options at around $281.50ish. Well the low of day was $280.72 which is a little more than ish, but I grabbed it anyway at $281 and it never looked back. Closed at $284.82, but I sold half when it took a dump intraday at $285. Took that profit an put a little bit into the PUTS I got a few days ago.

How about the IWM? Well the low of day for that was a buck lower than I thought at $180.51 and this one didn't do as well but still a couple of bucks from the $180.75 is great when the call is around 2 bucks to begin with.

Bottom line is all the losses from the last month were erased and now I'm in the black going into the holiday.

I still have half of everything I bought today, I rolled some profits into the PUTS I got earlier in the week to cost average up actually since those are in the money now, and still have calls for tomorrow to sell.

It was a good day for the Pumper today. Now if I can get Tennessee to beat up on the Pack but not score too many points, I wont need a happy ending from the 'ole lady to make it a great week.

the pumper always wins lol

i like your posts, but this one got a bit offensive!

[dlowilly]

What are your favorite buy and hold "forever" plays that also have multibagger potential? Or at least hold 10 years sort of thing. Need some capital gains to fund early retirement. Sell during no income years at 0 cap gains tax. Almost 50 and getting tired of the working grind.

My early retirement age 55 strategy is 4 buckets: pretax retirement, Roths, taxable investments and cash.
55-60 cap gains and cash
60-67 Traditional withdrawals and cash
67+ SS and trad withdrawals
Roths as the backstop
Maybe a little inheritance, hopefully many years down the road

if you're gonna hold 10 years, i would go with preferred stocks that are still in the dumps, they were cheaper a couple weeks ago but still solid 8% or so on a bunch of them... i guess gun to my head i would go

usb-q
vno-o
bhr-b
vra
coke (the bottler, not ko)

those don't really have multi-bagger potential, except vra... but i think we each have plenty of money that we don't need to make 10 million or anything

i quit working at 48 and will never work again, the life of leisure is really fantastic

Nice! I turn 48 next week. Too much family stuff to retire just yet. 55 is a fun goal. I sort of work 16/7 now between regular job and sports. I can handle the grind for now, but not forever. I don't expect the sports thing to last forever, so I'll grind it while I can.

I don't want more dividends in my taxable accounts. I want growth, even if I win some lose some. So that I can have some nice capital gains to recognize hopefully at 0 tax after income dries up but before IRA withdrawals and SS. Already have one huge winner with Nvidia. If only I had put 10x more in it back in 09. I ain't selling either. Still think that can multibag more for awhile.

qualified dividends are also 0 tax, to the same extent as long-term capital gains... and if you buy a preferred at 15, when it gets repaid at 25 that is also capital gain

bhr, the dividends over the past few years have almost all been return of principal (nontaxable no matter what) and long-term cap gain

good one with nvda, keep in mind i thought penn could be 200 instead of 140, now it's 37... thought btc could be 200k instead of 67k now it's 16k, etc etc... can always at least pull a little off the table each month/year

there are 2 types of companies, those that have problems, and those that WILL have problems

try to make a list of tech stocks that thrived for more than a decade, real short list

Guys just don't be surprised if in the future the Gov. starts turning it's eye to previously non taxable or low tax income for added revenue. They have an extensive history of changing the rules on you. For the good of the people of course.

[Slurry Pumper]

Guys just don't be surprised if in the future the Gov. starts turning it's eye to previously non taxable or low tax income for added revenue. They have an extensive history of changing the rules on you. For the good of the people of course.

Yeah taxes suck, and every year my tax guy takes a big chunk of cash out of me and let's me know what I should do to legally hide as much as possible. It's all an industry scam to employ the bean counters. I would rather just have a flat tax.

[milwaukee mike]

Guys just don't be surprised if in the future the Gov. starts turning it's eye to previously non taxable or low tax income for added revenue. They have an extensive history of changing the rules on you. For the good of the people of course.

oh absolutely, i did taxes long enough to know that almost everything eventually changes

the weird thing is that everyone keeps asking me if i'm gonna work, or why don't i work, etc... well if i made 100k on the side (self-employment) i would pay 22-24% fed income tax + 15.3% ss/med + 8% wisconsin + another 8.9% for the obamacare rules, and my income would be higher so i would pay that extra medicare 3.8% on my investment income, dividends and cap gains would be 20% instead of 0... so i would bust my butt to make 100k, and i would lose at least 59k of it to taxes, and possibly taxed as much as around 70k of the 100k!

[milwaukee mike]

Yeah taxes suck, and every year my tax guy takes a big chunk of cash out of me and let's me know what I should do to legally hide as much as possible. It's all an industry scam to employ the bean counters. I would rather just have a flat tax.

most of europe, people don't file tax returns, it's a VAT tax on the stuff you buy... that's even more fair than a flat tax, in the flat tax system it's still based on income where the sales tax/vat is based on consumption like it should be

similar to the unfairness of real estate taxes if your house is worth a bunch, and your kids go to private school or you have 0 kids... people should pay for the services they use, not the current situation where so many mooches have a sense of entitlement