Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[milwaukee mike]

Seems to be based on expectation that California will reject Prop 27. Why??? Cal residents are actually going to vote against getting sports betting? Bizarre.

Cali a massive market. Huge problem if it doesn't happen.

because the scummy tribal casinos have prop 26 on the ballot as well... so people will think it's a situation where "ok i'll vote for it but with all the restrictions"... if it was just prop 27 then i think it would pass, but given a choice between 2, most non-gamblers who are also cowards and morons that follow the tribal ads/propaganda will take prop 26 yes and prop 27 no

[d2bets]

because the scummy tribal casinos have prop 26 on the ballot as well... so people will think it's a situation where "ok i'll vote for it but with all the restrictions"... if it was just prop 27 then i think it would pass, but given a choice between 2, most non-gamblers who are also cowards and morons that follow the tribal ads/propaganda will take prop 26 yes and prop 27 no

So then there will only be sportsbooks run by tribal casinos? No Draftkings, Fanduel, MGM, etc?

This is just such a tough business. Limited states, huge tax rates, bettors addicted to promos, competition. I'm afraid it's going to end up being 3 or 4 books and everyone else folds. And what happens when all of the loser shmucks finally realize they'll never win and throw in the towel? Going to make it harder an harder on the pros. Draftkings and Fanduel are so easy to beat it's mind-boggling. I just can't believe they'll let me do this in perpetuity. I need as many options as possible to spread around my winnings.

[milwaukee mike]

So then there will only be sportsbooks run by tribal casinos? No Draftkings, Fanduel, MGM, etc?

This is just such a tough business. Limited states, huge tax rates, bettors addicted to promos, competition. I'm afraid it's going to end up being 3 or 4 books and everyone else folds. And what happens when all of the loser shmucks finally realize they'll never win and throw in the towel? Going to make it harder an harder on the pros. Draftkings and Fanduel are so easy to beat it's mind-boggling. I just can't believe they'll let me do this in perpetuity. I need as many options as possible to spread around my winnings.

that's correct... just like the tribals here in wisconsin that bribe anyone and everyone to get what they want... absolutely ridiculous that there is 1 casino in all of southeastern wisconsin, and they no longer even have a poker room, simulcast, bingo... there's no competition so they don't care, and the dummies around here keep giving potawatomi net profits of $1 million/day

a terrible casino in milwaukee shouldn't be able to make more money than the biggest and best in vegas

no idea how long dk/fd/etc can keep giving promos and being easy to beat... even 10-15 years ago there were tons of decent online sportsbook choices that would give 100% bonuses over and over, then it just kind of drifted away for the most part

[homie1975]

3 big items of the micro and macro variety hanging overhead which would typically mean another sell-off day but it is not happening at high volume quite yet:

1. jobs report too hot. we saw what happened this past Friday. selling continues but not nearly the levels of the past two fridays.

2. putin is on tilt now which has the russia-ukraine war at highest russian shelling since the beginning of the war back in february.

3. china and taiwan tensions which was featured on 60 mins last night.

[trobin31]

But won't the market bottom beforehand because somebody knows something, but it isn't the average Joe? Once the pivot is known, it will be too late.

I guess to be more specific I would like to see Fed start to breath about a pivot, transports(IYT) break up through major weekly moving averages and bond yields puke hard, until then I really just don’t see how the market rebounds, personally, based on my observations and reading/listening closely to people with esoteric knowledge about political machinations, I believe we are in for some of the hardest years from a geopolitical and macroeconomic standpoint…I don’t know what’s coming but it’s pretty clear in the charts it’s gonna be bad and I would be prepared for a worse case scenario.

[homie1975]

Tug of war going on today between sellers and buyers (intentionally flipped the order).

Imo this is a good sign for bulls considering what we saw last Friday and the macro event of the Crimea bridge blow up over the weekend causing Putin to step up his game.

[guitarjosh]

Josher, All of this is easier said than done for the average joe passive retail investor like me.

stock market hell in 2007? the true bottom was March 2009.

let's do an experiment:

let's pretend i am sitting in cash right now. all cash.

and instead of buying incrementally into positions right now, or lowering my cost base like i am, i am sitting in cash and waiting to try and time a bottom.

when should i buy? where is the bottom?

you or anyone else, please tell me where the bottom is, when it happens.

or maybe it already has?

Start looking for divergences under the hood. Junk bonds tend to change trend before stocks. When junk bonds start making higher lows, you're probably reaching bottom, and that's when you DCA.

[homie1975]

Start looking for divergences under the hood. Junk bonds tend to change trend before stocks. When junk bonds start making higher lows, you're probably reaching bottom, and that's when you DCA.

Josher how strong is the correlation and how did they look in the range between July 2007 and July 2009? (we know the true bottom was March 2009).

Also, you and I like to look at the inversion of the 10 Year Treasury Yield as a harbinger of a recession. it happened back in Aug 2019 and was a fake out.

then it happened this past March, then went back up and now then crossed again in July.

it's so hard to know just how accurate these correlations are.

[guitarjosh]

Josher how strong is the correlation and how did they look in the range between July 2007 and July 2009? (we know the true bottom was March 2009).

Also, you and I like to look at the inversion of the 10 Year Treasury Yield as a harbinger of a recession. it happened back in Aug 2019 and was a fake out.

then it happened this past March, then went back up and now then crossed again in July.

it's so hard to know just how accurate these correlations are.

Non DRIP adjusted MHCAX topped out at $6.60 in Feb of 2007 and hit $6.59 in April and May. It hit $4.12 in December 2008 and $4.26 in March of 2009.

I like the 1-30 year spread, it has never had a false positive (it wasn't inverted in 2019) and there has never been a recession without it inverting since the invention of the 30 year.

[homie1975]

MHCAX is at $4.85 as of 10/7.

Josher what do you think.

[homie1975]

[KVB]

Yeah, that 1 yr and 30 yr spread has been flipped conistently since August 1st and off and on two weeks before that.

I made a quick graph from here...

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022

[JIBBBY]

401k's in the shitter! Stock market will tank again with next interest rate hike announcement which is coming. Prepare to lose cash!

[chico2663]

Good thing you get s.s.I. For being a dumb ass.

[guitarjosh]

MHCAX is at $4.85 as of 10/7.

Josher what do you think.

9% of the stocks on the S&P 100 are above their 50 & 200 day MAs, so I wouldn't go short here. That being said, I doubt we're anywhere near a long-term bottom.

[jjgold]

There are no good buys

We are in dark times

People chasing bottoms getting destroyed

[JIBBBY]

Stocks about to get rocked again with next interest rate hike announcement.

Thank you Joe Biden and your spending and growing inflation act! Investors pull back when rate hikes keep climbing to try and combat inflation. It's a no win scenario!

[RangeFinder]

Stocks about to get rocked again with next interest rate hike announcement.

Thank you Joe Biden and your spending and growing inflation act! Investors pull back when rate hikes keep climbing to try and combat inflation. It's a no win scenario!

Jibs,

The rate hike is already baked in. There will soon be a shift toward tech as soon as the fed relaxes their position. I think it happens sooner than most think.

[Yulia74]

[d2bets]

Jibs,

The rate hike is already baked in. There will soon be a shift toward tech as soon as the fed relaxes their position. I think it happens sooner than most think.

Of course the fed will eventually relax, but when? They are bound and determined to not pull back too early.

[ex50warrior]

Powell's stuck between a rock and a hard place. No easy solution.

[milwaukee mike]

Powell's stuck between a rock and a hard place. No easy solution.

when your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail... and we're getting nailed and hammered!

the fed creates bubbles and then crushes them, nothing new, except this time they're really destroying everything... with the bond market getting crushed as well, so many pension funds are gonna be broke

[homie1975]

holy BEAR rally ??

[homie1975]

the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.

[d2bets]

the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.

Happened two weeks ago Mon/Tues also. But will it hold? One of these rallies these, but might not be this one. Sometime before the end of the year.

[homie1975]

Happened two weeks ago Mon/Tues also. But will it hold? One of these rallies these, but might not be this one. Sometime before the end of the year.

2er, the earnings can be the catalyst here, specifically how strong the numbers are YoY after goalposts have been moved up, and if the guidance looks anything better than BAD, I think we have some tailwinds for a decent leg up over the next 4-5 weeks.

[d2bets]

2er, the earnings can be the catalyst here, specifically how strong the numbers are YoY after goalposts have been moved up, and if the guidance looks anything better than BAD, I think we have some tailwinds for a decent leg up over the next 4-5 weeks.

That's a factor, but inflation/fed will continue to dominate and will be the catalyst for any big move in either direction. Any sign that the fed is reversing course can lead to a massive rally, perhaps to 4,200.

[milwaukee mike]

once october is over, i'm gonna be selling out of the money puts on the vix... my thought process is always that markets don't ever crash in nov/dec... but imho they're not just gonna rally big time either

[homie1975]

[d2bets]

Apple warns and the market yawns. Apple just isn't innovative anymore. Nobody cares. Doesn't necessarily translate.

[Yulia74]

CHINA TO SELL PORK AGAIN FROM STATE RESERVES AFTER PRICE SURGE

the only country to have a 'strategic pork reserve'.

[homie1975]

the market is dying to rally. it's dying to.

Upward pressure now. Reverse of what we've seen for a long time.

[milwaukee mike]

Upward pressure now. Reverse of what we've seen for a long time.

very volatile, just like before the 1929 crash and 1987 crash

be careful, it's still october, and i'm hearing oct 28 is the real danger zone

[Yulia74]

Golden dragon china index sinks to lowest since july 2013

[Yulia74]

Hong kong's hang seng index drops to lowest close since 2009