I've been buying picking up some SQ and CRWD. I think in 2 years both these double, or, more. However, I'm picking up shares slowly on downturns on shares. You might think I'm catching a falling knife, but, I think these two are really close to a bottom according to the charts.
-
Comment -
Inflation has peaked.Comment -
JPM, and MS came out with some crappy earnings this morning and the markets are taking note. After a day of ekking out a gain of a couple bucks off of huge inflation numbers, Gold has return to the downside. The dollar continues to destroy the world.
SPY is currently below the $375 spot of support, so now that becomes resistance and the next spot down is a short stay at around $372-$372.50 before the SPY gets to the $370 point which is the latest line in the sand where the range has been setting up for the last month or so. Below the $370 and that would put the $362 low squarely in the bears sights. What about if the cavalry comes in to play? Well they probably got a little worn out yesterday but if they show up, the regaining of $375 is paramount then they have to be able to hold that for a while before making a move back towards $380 with a couple of stops on the way. I just don't see a huge recovery today being in the cards like yesterday. I'm in the maybe hold the line at $370 when the day is done.Comment -
dead as door knob
people crushed chasing bottomsComment -
I have a couple Puts I might dump if SPY goes below 370. May not be today but I think either before tomorrows close or Monday. Bulls have run out of steam for now.Comment -
There are no bulls lolComment -
The bears have had all the chances in the world to push down price over the last few days and couldn't do the deal, but di kind of revisited the $370ish area before bouncing back in the other direction. The SPY is making a bullish flag pattern right under the $380 spot while SMH is are right at a breakout area as well as the hourly chart will show. All in all, it looks like the markets are going to shake off those crappy bank earnings at least going into the weekend so maybe another run to $390 which is the top of this range for the SPY before another pullback is in the cards. Today, I'll be looking for the IWM to catch up to the other indices as it has been lagging slightly. All of these are just day trades started yesterday of course when the low end of the previously mentioned range was almost met, and by the end of the day, I'll be getting out of these things, well mostly anyway. Gotta keep a little bit in reserve for some post weekend bullishness if that happens. That's the plan anyway, we'll wait until the market opens up and see if the floater Friday holds today.Comment -
thanks
they just preannounced earnings last night, around $3/share for the quarter
and that is with so much of their product hedged... if coal is still 400 next year (doubtful) that number would be more like $7/share
so at $20/share there is still a great risk/reward on it... decent chance it's a $50-100 stock and how much downside can there be when they're making $3/share/quarterComment -
it may continue to hold or gain but then take a steeper drop in early August.Comment -
Lower 20% will be wiped out. Already poor and even if they got a 5% raise still have 5% less than they had before. Bottom 50% will mass CC debt and if they don't already own a home prob never will. Top 50% will lose equity as their homes will drop in value due to high interest rates. Demand destruction will be the story but that still takes time to cross supply. Americans are happy to go bankrupt to keep up appearances. I think the market will turn positive but the real risk is a few years down the line when debt catches up and mortgage lenders start seeing defaults as they inevitably will start loaning to less qualified ppl again and home equity loans go under water from dropping home valuesComment -
yeah and without the dollar strength vs the euro inflation would be a lot worse
places like lithuania with 18%+
at some point if a loaf of bread is $500, people are gonna look back and laugh when they thought 8% inflation was a lot
THERE IS NOTHING BACKING THE DOLLAR, AND IT IS GUARANTEED TO LOSE PURCHASING POWER EVERY YEAR OF YOUR LIFE, IT'S JUST A MATTER OF HOW QUICKLY... everyone can read that as many times as possibleComment -
So the above statement worked out just like I said it would and yesterday we had a gap open almost up to the $390 on the SPY. Price hung out just below the $390 price for a while building energy, but couldn't do it and by the time we had an hourly close at 1:30 I was out and turned back to the Put train. This range of 370 to 390 has been going on for a month now, but if you look at the weekly chart, it is making a bullish flag pattern ever since the 362ish lows in May. So until the SPY breaks below $370, I'm going to continue to believe the choppy rise scenario I've been touting for about 2 months now.
Today we have real estate news coming out and even though the futures are bright this morning, I gotta believe that the real estate numbers for housing starts are gonna suck. Who the F is building a house when the interest rate on that house have doubled? I think the materials are slowing in price increases but the interest rates are a killer. So I'm looking for another test of the $370 spot before I turn back around and buy those calls again. As always however I will keep watching to see if I need to adjust my positions.Comment -
Hopefully none of you guys buy puts and calls
Worst investment a trader can makeComment -
Buy during this idiotic administration's run. Republicans get back in and will right the ship.Comment -
Today's action was interesting. How interesting, well lets take a look at the 3 Month chart with daily candle closes of the SPY.
Today the SPY just waltz right up gaining almost 11 bucks which is pretty huge. #1 represents the downtrend resistance line which is the ceiling price for the last few months or since about 4/1/22. With price only making it above and closing once. #2 is the 50 DMA which is usually a spot for pausing. #3 is the top of the most recent range the SPY has been in for the last month. Today the SPY closed above all 3 and passed right through like there was nothing there to give any resistance. If this is a true move we'll soon find the price up in the unmarked bubble area near the 100 DMA. A look at the 1 year chart with weekly closes shows us that the next target in sight is the top of the breakup candle from early June (#3) which we will call $415 (#1). Of note there is a convergence of the 20 and 100 WMA that could also be a target near term top. Some astute chartist will note that there seems to be a big bear flag pattern starting with the big break down candle (#3) and the candle next to it. Maybe so but there was also a bull flag pattern from the smaller of the break down candles that was just about breached today. If the markets are to stay bullish, there isn't much in the way of resistance and the bullishness could get rampant if that were the direction created from people buying thinking things are done with. I can tell you with out a doubt, I don't think things are done going down just yet, and this is the pause in the market cycle or complacency as it is labeled at the very bottom chart.
So a look at a 3 year chart (below) with monthly candle closes shows normal market behavior going on with this months candle climbing up last month's break down candle but not really challenging even the half way point yet. The goal would be the top of the candle stick (#1) at around $415, but that would be a little ways out to think about just yet. This bullish run would need to challenge this level and eventually break out for me to change my mind. In the short term we are working our way up in a choppy formation, and eventually the bottom will fall out and we will see the $220-$240 spot on the SPY when the dust settles in a year or so.
So I didn't sell my PUTS today and actually basically doubled the ones I have near the end of the day. Tomorrow is about 1 of 3 scenarios that I see happening. A) the market has a huge gap and go leaving the resistance levels just breached today behind and making another big move up the ladder possible to around $400. This is my least likely scenario. 2) the SPY pauses and starts off slightly down but unable to get back below the resistance levels from today thus making those levels support. This one is half likely, or C) the market gets the rejection that it should have gotten today and we see some accelerated selling and the range bound area continues with today just being a spike through on some exuberance. Since I'm in the camp of C) for this week, and also in the camp of the SPY making the climb up those breakdown candles I'm a holder of both longer term Calls of the SPY that I bought last month at the $365 level and don't expire until the end of the year, and a holder of shorter term PUTS that expire near the end of the month. Tomorrow is a good indicator so if we see SPY right around the $387ish spot, I'm gonna unload about 35% of the Calls and keep the PUTS, if the SPY just hangs around or goes higher, I have to unload those PUTS as, I'm already taking a little bath on the ones I got a few days ago, and the ones I got today will be under pressure then as well so I'll be cutting the small losses at that point.
If you don't know about Puts and Calls, take JJ Gold's advice, you can get hosed pretty quickly.Last edited by Slurry Pumper; 07-19-22, 07:06 PM.Comment -
Might be a few years of DOW +S+P misery till the ship is straightened.
Hope its not Great Depression 2.
Comment -
Futures pointing slightly down. Profit takers will hit at the open, we'll see about mid day.Comment -
i don't see how it doesn't get even worse than the great depression at some point... back in the 1930s about 80% of the usa population actually believed the media/govt... now that number is around 20%
so you have hetero white men, and hispanic men, the 2 groups that do almost all of the actual work in this country, being more and more bashed and polarized... no other country would make their major population base the enemy in every news story, tv show, and movie... and no other country would have half of the people in all of their major cities speak a different language
yes in ny/la/chicago/houston, more than HALF of the population speaks a language other than english at home... that's not a countryComment
