Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**TheGoldenGoose** · 11-11-20, 03:50 PM

babyf

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 11:35 AM

Took a gamble on xpev

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 01:29 PM

Not a chartist, but have a gut feeling we are headed lower into EOY. Put pretty tight stops on my holdings.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-12-20, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by Madison

FWIW, I believe DKNG is a good investment longer term. I believe they report before the open tomorrow.

Agreed...assuming that sports are being played

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Agreed...assuming that sports are being played

Well, thus my "longer term" caveat. I'm pecking away at dips and building a long term position.

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Agreed...assuming that sports are being played

Take a look at BLNK and let me know what you think. Moved back up a bit lately but think again may be a nice longer term play??

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Not a chartist, but have a gut feeling we are headed lower into EOY. Put pretty tight stops on my holdings.

Depends what you are in. I used to be in oil and n.g. But changed couple years ago was in hip sock. Ok profits and Roy kept talking tsla. Talked to cousin who took job in fla to work for tsla. He convinced me e.v was the play.Ides up 62 % on the year because of redistribution of stocks.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 11-12-20, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Take a look at BLNK and let me know what you think. Moved back up a bit lately but think again may be a nice longer term play??

Looks like it has a lot of hype behind it right now? I didn't research much just googled it and read some headlines. Not sure what to think, I'll keep an eye on it and see what happens going forward.

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

Depends what you are in. I used to be in oil and n.g. But changed couple years ago was in hip sock. Ok profits and Roy kept talking tsla. Talked to cousin who took job in fla to work for tsla. He convinced me e.v was the play.Ides up 62 % on the year because of redistribution of stocks.

I have a very diverse portfolio as I'm mostly preservation of capital. But yes many of my holdings are EV and 5G related. The one I'm a little confused about is the EV Lithium play which I'm in a little more than my comfort. I have done great with ALB and actually sold a bit as I was overweight. GL

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Looks like it has a lot of hype behind it right now? I didn't research much just googled it and read some headlines. Not sure what to think, I'll keep an eye on it and see what happens going forward.

Yeah, my DCA is in the 7's so I've got quite a bit of room. Trying to figure out who is going to provide charging stations for EV seems destined to succeed. Let us know if you come up with any other ideas.

**RoyBacon** · 11-12-20, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Take a look at BLNK and let me know what you think. Moved back up a bit lately but think again may be a nice longer term play??

I'd be super careful BLNK. Its market cap is $300 million and they did less than $4 million in sales in 9 months. There are subway's that do more sales than this guy.

Total revenue for the first nine months of 2020 grew 84% to $3.8 million, during Covid-19 economy; exceeds full year 2019 total revenue of $2.8 million

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I'd be super careful BLNK. Its market cap is $300 million and they did less than $4 million in sales in 9 months. There are subway's that do more sales than this guy.

Total revenue for the first nine months of 2020 grew 84% to $3.8 million, during Covid-19 economy; exceeds full year 2019 total revenue of $2.8 million

Thanks for your input. Since I opened my mouth down 10% since earlier today.

**RoyBacon** · 11-12-20, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Thanks for your input. Since I opened my mouth down 10% since earlier today.

Well, all the great companies go into the billions of market cap on just a song. So no one knows.

If their widget(whatever their product is) is to die for why is it only selling $6 million a year a couple of years into it? Maybe they are about to get a contract from tsla or nasa? Or maybe they are just a story that fades away? Don't know.

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 05:00 PM

Seems like BLNK has pretty strong support low 9's??

**Madison** · 11-12-20, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Well, all the great companies go into the billions of market cap on just a song. So no one knows.

If their widget(whatever their product is) is to die for why is it only selling $6 million a year a couple of years into it? Maybe they are about to get a contract from tsla or nasa? Or maybe they are just a story that fades away? Don't know.

Roy, admittedly not sure either. Just looking for EV charging buildout and they were the best I could find at the time. Other ideas??

**RoyBacon** · 11-12-20, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Roy, admittedly not sure either. Just looking for EV charging buildout and they were the best I could find at the time. Other ideas??

I hear ya, I'm always looking too. Going to be some winners in that area. One has a pretty good chart; TSLA LOL

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 05:31 PM

Charge point just bought switch back energy sbe to take control of this. They were supposed to ipo. I don’t know how it will play out.

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Well, all the great companies go into the billions of market cap on just a song. So no one knows.

If their widget(whatever their product is) is to die for why is it only selling $6 million a year a couple of years into it? Maybe they are about to get a contract from tsla or nasa? Or maybe they are just a story that fades away? Don't know.

Didn’t amazon,nio and couple of other companies have bad numbers starting out?

**RoyBacon** · 11-12-20, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

Didn’t amazon,nio and couple of other companies have bad numbers starting out?

That's what I said "all the great companies go into the billions of market cap on just a song."

Of course for every TSLA there are a 100++ failures.

I would not expose more than 1% of my portfolio to small caps. That's more gambling than investing.

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

That's what I said "all the great companies go into the billions of market cap on just a song."

Of course for every TSLA there are a 100++ failures.

I would not expose more than 1% of my portfolio to small caps. That's more gambling than investing.

Bet you wished you had nio,li or xpev

**RoyBacon** · 11-12-20, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

Bet you wished you had nio,li or xpev

I had nio. Sold it for a loss. I try not to look at it. LOL

**Shafted69** · 11-12-20, 08:11 PM

NIO reports earnings on Tues, November 17. 5 A.M. ET

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I had nio. Sold it for a loss. I try not to look at it. LOL

Bought 200 units at 2 bucks sold hundy at 21. Still watching it fly.

**chico2663** · 11-12-20, 08:15 PM

Have 2 more seps I am thinking of rolling but afraid luck would run out.

**RoyBacon** · 11-12-20, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

Bought 200 units at 2 bucks sold hundy at 21. Still watching it fly.

Good for you. I've made a small fortune on TSLA but I totally fugged up NIO. I need to stay away from those. I need singles and not boom or busts stuff.

**chico2663** · 11-13-20, 06:26 AM

nio 50
li38
xpev47

**Madison** · 11-13-20, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

Didn’t amazon,nio and couple of other companies have bad numbers starting out?

Not that I'm much smarter now but I judged Amazon by their earnings and didn't realize capital buildout. Passed on it at $3 circa 1994?

**Madison** · 11-13-20, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I hear ya, I'm always looking too. Going to be some winners in that area. One has a pretty good chart; TSLA LOL

I have a few Lithium speculative plays thinking TSLA will eventually step in and possibly buy out. I believe LTHM just extended their agreements with TSLA out another year. I've done awesome with them.

**Madison** · 11-13-20, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

I had nio. Sold it for a loss. I try not to look at it. LOL

LOL, you have to be like a relief picture etc and not look back but forward. I'm net gain but could bore you all to death with my miscues.

**Madison** · 11-13-20, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Shafted69

NIO reports earnings on Tues, November 17. 5 A.M. ET

Well, there won't be any earnings (right?), just expected future forecast.

**RoyBacon** · 11-13-20, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Madison

I have a few Lithium speculative plays thinking TSLA will eventually step in and possibly buy out. I believe LTHM just extended their agreements with TSLA out another year. I've done awesome with them.

A $2 billion company that breaks even. It's book value is $4 and it trades at $14.

Having a really great day today!

Their margins are dangerously thin. Whatever their widget is there are not economies of scale. The more they sell the more they lose. $14 looks like a good price to sell.

Valuation

Industry Average & Percentile Methodology

Market Cap	$1.93B	$12.31B	61st
P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)	--	213.80	--
P/E (5-Year Average)	--	41.05	--
PEG Ratio (5-Year Projected)	--	1.15	--
Enterprise Value	$2.15B	$62.33B	59th
Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)	-84.57	20.59	4th
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)	214.08	25.93	100th
Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter)	6.64	4.23	97th
Price/Sales (TTM)	6.77	4.87	96th
Price/Book	3.47 11/12/2020	4.65	74th
Book Value	3.87 09/30/2020	36.36	34th

Growth

EPS Growth (Last Qrtr vs. Same Qrtr Prior Year)	--	-5.78%	--
EPS Growth (TTM vs. Prior TTM)	--	-86.27%	--
EPS Growth (Last 5 Years)	+0.60%	+1.26%	50th
Projected EPS Growth (Next Year vs. This Year)	--	+31.38%	--
Forward EPS Long Term Growth (3-5 Yrs)	+6.41%	+7.65%	45th
Revenue % Change (Last Qrtr vs. Same Qrtr Prior Year)	-25.69%	-3.64%	18th
Revenue % Change (TTM)	-33.83%	-4.34%	5th
Revenue Growth (Last 5 Years)	+8.02%	+2.97%	77th
Book Value per Share Growth (Last 5 Years)	--	+16.13%	--
Free Cash Flow (TTM)	$-179.10M	$1.99B	3rd
Cash Flow Growth Rate (Last 5 Years)	+2.48%	+2.30%	51st

Profit Margins

Gross Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	16.67%	35.25%	15th
Gross Margin (TTM)	27.99%	34.67%	42nd
EBITD Margin (TTM)	11.81%	17.96%	39th
Profit Margin (Most Recent Quarter)	-16.25%	1.24%	22nd
Operating Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-6.89%	9.72%	25th
Operating Margin (TTM)	3.69%	8.72%	38th
Pretax Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-21.07%	3.92%	21st
Pretax Margin (TTM)	-5.20%	3.11%	32nd

Returns

Return on Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-8.33%	9.47%	29th
Return on Equity (TTM)	-2.54%	2.96%	38th
Return on Assets (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-5.23%	3.59%	31st
Return on Assets (TTM)	-1.60%	2.93%	43rd
Return on Investment (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-5.84%	4.81%	28th
Return on Investment (TTM)	-1.82%	3.94%	40th

Debts

Long Term Debt/Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	42.08%	80.39%	35th
Long Term Debt/Equity (TTM)	38.54%	86.63%	37th
Total Debt/Assets (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	26.62%	33.28%	41st
Total Debt/Assets (TTM)	24.58%	32.10%	33rd
Total Debt/Capital (Most Recent Quarter)	29.73%	--	37th
Total Debt/Capital (TTM)	29.73%	44.35%	37th
Total Debt/Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	42.43%	104.74%	39th
Total Debt/Equity (TTM)	38.90%	98.94%	35th
Current Ratio (TTM)	2.89	1.63	71st
Payout Ratio (TTM)	--	96.96%	--

Operating Metrics

Income/Employee (TTM)	$-17,625.00	$12,798.86		--
Revenue/Employee (TTM)	$355,500.00	$535,560.00		30th

**Madison** · 11-13-20, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

A $2 billion company that breaks even. It's book value is $4 and it trades at $14.

Having a really great day today!

Their margins are dangerously thin. Whatever their widget is there are not economies of scale. The more they sell the more they lose. $14 looks like a good price to sell.

Valuation

Industry Average & Percentile Methodology

Market Cap	$1.93B	$12.31B	61st
P/E (Trailing Twelve Months)	--	213.80	--
P/E (5-Year Average)	--	41.05	--
PEG Ratio (5-Year Projected)	--	1.15	--
Enterprise Value	$2.15B	$62.33B	59th
Price/Cash Flow (Most Recent Quarter)	-84.57	20.59	4th
Price/Cash Flow (TTM)	214.08	25.93	100th
Price/Sales (Most Recent Quarter)	6.64	4.23	97th
Price/Sales (TTM)	6.77	4.87	96th
Price/Book	3.47 11/12/2020	4.65	74th
Book Value	3.87 09/30/2020	36.36	34th

Growth

EPS Growth (Last Qrtr vs. Same Qrtr Prior Year)	--	-5.78%	--
EPS Growth (TTM vs. Prior TTM)	--	-86.27%	--
EPS Growth (Last 5 Years)	+0.60%	+1.26%	50th
Projected EPS Growth (Next Year vs. This Year)	--	+31.38%	--
Forward EPS Long Term Growth (3-5 Yrs)	+6.41%	+7.65%	45th
Revenue % Change (Last Qrtr vs. Same Qrtr Prior Year)	-25.69%	-3.64%	18th
Revenue % Change (TTM)	-33.83%	-4.34%	5th
Revenue Growth (Last 5 Years)	+8.02%	+2.97%	77th
Book Value per Share Growth (Last 5 Years)	--	+16.13%	--
Free Cash Flow (TTM)	$-179.10M	$1.99B	3rd
Cash Flow Growth Rate (Last 5 Years)	+2.48%	+2.30%	51st

Profit Margins

Gross Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	16.67%	35.25%	15th
Gross Margin (TTM)	27.99%	34.67%	42nd
EBITD Margin (TTM)	11.81%	17.96%	39th
Profit Margin (Most Recent Quarter)	-16.25%	1.24%	22nd
Operating Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-6.89%	9.72%	25th
Operating Margin (TTM)	3.69%	8.72%	38th
Pretax Margin (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-21.07%	3.92%	21st
Pretax Margin (TTM)	-5.20%	3.11%	32nd

Returns

Return on Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-8.33%	9.47%	29th
Return on Equity (TTM)	-2.54%	2.96%	38th
Return on Assets (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-5.23%	3.59%	31st
Return on Assets (TTM)	-1.60%	2.93%	43rd
Return on Investment (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	-5.84%	4.81%	28th
Return on Investment (TTM)	-1.82%	3.94%	40th

Debts

Long Term Debt/Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	42.08%	80.39%	35th
Long Term Debt/Equity (TTM)	38.54%	86.63%	37th
Total Debt/Assets (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	26.62%	33.28%	41st
Total Debt/Assets (TTM)	24.58%	32.10%	33rd
Total Debt/Capital (Most Recent Quarter)	29.73%	--	37th
Total Debt/Capital (TTM)	29.73%	44.35%	37th
Total Debt/Equity (Most Recent Quarter, Annualized)	42.43%	104.74%	39th
Total Debt/Equity (TTM)	38.90%	98.94%	35th
Current Ratio (TTM)	2.89	1.63	71st
Payout Ratio (TTM)	--	96.96%	--

Operating Metrics

Income/Employee (TTM)	$-17,625.00	$12,798.86		--
Revenue/Employee (TTM)	$355,500.00	$535,560.00		30th

Roy, I have zero technical skills so I do appreciate your input very much. What are you using to get these metrics?

**Slurry Pumper** · 11-13-20, 03:33 PM

At some point fundamentals matter.

**RoyBacon** · 11-13-20, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Roy, I have zero technical skills so I do appreciate your input very much. What are you using to get these metrics?

Compustat

From running businesses forever I think the hardest thing to overcome is a thin profit margin.

It doesn't mean the stock won't go to $60. But it does tell you there is a problem with the secret sauce.

**KVB** · 11-13-20, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

At some point fundamentals matter.

That will be next fall when stimulus is really out of the question and reality hits.

Congress might hit too by then, but they could be gridlocked which is probably a positive next fall.