What percent do professional sports handicappers hit against -110?

[JohnGalt2341]

I realize much of Sportsbetting is about beating the closing line but my question is what percent do professional sports handicappers win long term on games that are considered coin flips? Does anyone here hit over 55% long term?

[SportsMushroom]

statistically it's probably one in a billion to hit 55% on -110 odds over the long term

some do it for a season or two, but thats just variance, and in the long term it converges to 50%



the only way to hit that number is to develop better statistical models than the books, and that is almost impossible, cause the firms that come up with the odds employ many people who are good at their job, mathematicians, software engineers etc

to beat them you have to employ better staff, which means huge cost, and even then it might not be worth it, because their models are so good, yours are going to be marginally better, so i doubt you can create a 5% edge over them, it probably doesnt even exist

[lakerboy]

Betting-110 lines is complete stupidity. If you don't play at lower juice numbers you can't win.

[rm18]

You have to get good numbers to have a chance either juice or half point, handicapping basically impossible especially volume betting. I probably could hit 60% if I only bet 100 games a year but no discipline to do it.

[jjgold]

Betting-110 lines is complete stupidity. If you don't play at lower juice numbers you can't win.

end of thread

[slapshot]

it takes an unreal balancing act to make a living betting spreads and over/under....long term i'd say impossible.

teams play to win the game not to cover a spread....hence you have a better chance winning playing moneylines.

[Sam Odom]

gotta find a way to win $$$ at 50%

[BuckyOne]

There are people that can do it. Let's call them pro pros! They have very little needs in the area of social interaction about it. The guys that are scientific enough to make their own line - define value on a case by case basis because they factor in variables.

You guys might be able to answer your question by researching the records in Beat the Prick. Would not surprise me in the least to be able to find players that have a winning record every year.

P.S. The players that do know how to do it do not talk about it - are not on media - do not write books - and I suspect very math and computer educated.

[rkelly110]

Just going by observation, an away pick 'em hits at a higher rate than a home pick 'em.

[Sam Odom]

https://www.random.org/

download their app

[Slipknot26]

It can be done .
Just have to learn other methods than just requiring SU betting .
Nobody ever said you have to bet SU and that's the only method to win long term . That's just what the general public is accustomed to and seldom investigates other ways of going about beating the books .

[JohnGalt2341]

it takes an unreal balancing act to make a living betting spreads and over/under....long term i'd say impossible.

teams play to win the game not to cover a spread....hence you have a better chance winning playing moneylines.

If this is true wouldn't it make more sense to always bet on the Dog on spreads but only bet moneyline favorites?

[jjgold]

The average player hits 49 percent and gets buried

[RangeFinder]

There are people that can do it. Let's call them pro pros! They have very little needs in the area of social interaction about it. The guys that are scientific enough to make their own line - define value on a case by case basis because they factor in variables.

You guys might be able to answer your question by researching the records in Beat the Prick. Would not surprise me in the least to be able to find players that have a winning record every year.

P.S. The players that do know how to do it do not talk about it - are not on media - do not write books - and I suspect very math and computer educated.

Post of the year and it's January 1st

[Rich Boy]

Its possible if you focus on smaller markets that get no attention. Trying to beat NFL sides straight up is an uphill battle, the lines are just too efficient, why try to beat those lines? An old saying is the books have to accept action on every game, you dont, so be selective! Thats the only advantage the average player has.

Simple way to win like I have over 10 years - look at props markets, work out teaser odds and expectancies using historical data and find books that offer value (hint: NFL key numbers on spreads (not totals)), look for books that offer good dog lines. get a good reduced juice book, try and find a square local that offers good lines.

Many ways to win but you have to have a niche market that you specialize in.

[TheMoneyShot]

-110 still possible... but a hard road.

-105 much easier.

[JIBBBY]

I really don't keep a record and probably should but I win alot more then I lose on my best -110 plays.. I'm starting to track my daily best picks on 5dimes betting contest with -110 play as long as remember to play it every day..... ...

Here is almost 2 months of my daily play... I get streaky alot with my wins..

12/27/2017 11:37 AM Basketball NBA
705 Washington Wizards -6 vs 706 Atlanta Hawks
Loss

12/26/2017 03:25 PM Basketball NBA
506 Miami Heat -7 vs 505 Orlando Magic
Win

12/25/2017 01:22 PM Basketball NBA
710 Los Angeles Lakers +5½ vs 709 Minnesota Timberwolves
Loss

12/24/2017 02:52 PM Football NFL
127 Seattle Seahawks +4 vs 128 Dallas Cowboys
Win

12/23/2017 01:49 PM Basketball NBA
509 Chicago Bulls +7½ vs 510 Boston Celtics
Loss

12/22/2017 03:32 PM Basketball NBA
808 Miami Heat +1 vs 807 Dallas Mavericks
Win

12/21/2017 01:14 PM Basketball NBA
503 Chicago Bulls +10½ vs 504 Cleveland Cavaliers
Win

12/20/2017 08:26 PM Basketball NBA
720 Portland Trail Blazers -2½ vs 719 San Antonio Spurs
Loss

12/19/2017 12:59 PM Hockey NHL
58 New York Rangers -1 vs 57 Anaheim Ducks
Win

12/18/2017 01:42 PM Basketball NBA
708 Chicago Bulls +1½ vs 707 Philadelphia 76ers
Win

12/15/2017 01:32 PM Basketball NBA
822 Houston Rockets -8 vs 821 San Antonio Spurs
Win

12/14/2017 03:25 AM Basketball NBA
501 Detroit Pistons -3½ vs 502 Atlanta Hawks
Win

12/13/2017 03:32 PM Basketball NBA
701 Los Angeles Clippers +1½ vs 702 Orlando Magic
Win

12/12/2017 05:01 PM Hockey NHL
2 New Jersey Devils pk vs 1 Los Angeles Kings
Win

12/11/2017 01:25 AM Football NFL
133 New England Patriots -11 vs 134 Miami Dolphins
Loss

12/10/2017 05:30 PM Basketball NBA
507 Dallas Mavericks +8 vs 508 Minnesota Timberwolves
Win

12/09/2017 05:34 PM Hockey NHL
74 Los Angeles Kings pk vs 73 Carolina Hurricanes
Win

12/08/2017 02:40 PM Basketball NBA
503 Cleveland Cavaliers -4½ vs 504 Indiana Pacers
Loss

12/07/2017 01:09 PM Hockey NHL
66 Los Angeles Kings -1 vs 65 Ottawa Senators
Cancel

12/06/2017 01:09 PM Basketball NBA
506 Cleveland Cavaliers -12½ vs 505 Sacramento Kings
Loss

12/05/2017 12:31 PM Hockey NHL
70 Los Angeles Kings pk vs 69 Minnesota Wild
Win

12/04/2017 01:16 PM Basketball NBA
511 Cleveland Cavaliers -8½ vs 512 Chicago Bulls
Win

12/03/2017 12:01 PM Football NFL
357 New England Patriots -7½ vs 358 Buffalo Bills
Win

12/01/2017 01:26 AM Hockey NHL
61 Los Angeles Kings pk vs 62 St. Louis Blues
Win

11/30/2017 02:06 PM Basketball NBA
503 Cleveland Cavaliers -7½ vs 504 Atlanta Hawks
Loss

11/29/2017 03:53 PM Basketball NBA
716 San Antonio Spurs -8 vs 715 Memphis Grizzlies
Win

11/19/2017 03:42 PM Football NFL
471 New England Patriots -7 vs 472 Oakland Raiders
Win

11/17/2017 01:36 PM Basketball NBA
701 Detroit Pistons pk vs 702 Indiana Pacers
Loss

11/16/2017 02:06 PM Basketball NBA
503 Houston Rockets -12½ vs 504 Phoenix Suns
Win

11/15/2017 02:15 PM Basketball NBA
709 Cleveland Cavaliers -1½ vs 710 Charlotte Hornets
Win

11/11/2017 12:10 PM Basketball NBA
717 Orlando Magic +7½ vs 718 Denver Nuggets
Loss

11/10/2017 11:37 AM Basketball NBA
513 Los Angeles Clippers +6 vs 514 Oklahoma City Thunder
Loss

11/09/2017 12:34 PM Basketball NBA
706 Houston Rockets -6 vs 705 Cleveland Cavaliers
Loss

11/08/2017 11:42 AM Basketball NBA
506 Boston Celtics -8½ vs 505 Los Angeles Lakers
Win

11/07/2017 04:29 PM Basketball NBA
717 Memphis Grizzlies +3 vs 718 Portland Trail Blazers
Win

11/06/2017 12:15 PM Basketball NBA
506 Golden State Warriors -15½ vs 505 Miami Heat
Win

11/05/2017 03:04 AM Football NFL
454 New York Giants / 453 Los Angeles Rams o42
Win

11/04/2017 03:54 PM Basketball NBA
509 Golden State Warriors -9 vs 510 Denver Nuggets
Win

11/03/2017 03:40 AM Basketball NBA
709 Houston Rockets -8 vs 710 Atlanta Hawks
Win

11/01/2017 01:26 PM Baseball MLB
913 Houston Astros L McCullers - R +1 vs 914 Los Angeles Dodgers Y Darvish - R
Win

[biggie12]

any pro betting into -110 lines always.

better have a backup plan

[slapshot]

If this is true wouldn't it make more sense to always bet on the Dog on spreads but only bet moneyline favorites?

tracking your plays will tell what works for you....moneylines is more profitable for me.

[DOM_Toretto]

It only takes 52.4% winners to break a profit on -110 lines.

[rkelly110]

The average player hits 49 percent and gets buried

I hit 58% +4 units on the year.

[JohnGalt2341]

The average player hits 49 percent and gets buried

So... the average player is 1% below average? Somehow that math is difficult for me understand. I suppose it's possible... according to this Poll: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...erson-sbr.html 88% of the people on SBR are smarter than the average person at SBR. If someone could explain the math to me on either one of these I would really appreciate it.