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wow. thanksComment -
You’ll never be rich watching televisionComment -
2 pointers:
1. If u cant afford Nba, Nfl league passes or sattelite tv etc, no comment here...
2. Watching games lol, even Mikey knows
P.S. PM NoCoin, include in Subject "Line Moves"
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1. I rarely bet the NBA or watch it
2. I received an email and thought some on SBR would like it.
3. If you are an analytical type, watching games can yield valuable gambling information that cannot be identified through advanced statistical analysis. I do watch quite a bit of NHL when possible and know this to be true.Comment -
No problems with first 2, number 3 is absolutely false: Whatever information you can gather from a single game, might not be applicable in future cause of diff. matchups/teams but only give you an illusion of so. In this day of age, there so many stats gathered from wxactly watching those games so you basically dont have 2.
BUT if you do gain some valuable info and you can prove it with handicapping, kudos!Comment -
I agree that there are stats for every little thing, but these statistics are at best useful at describing something that has occurred. Yes, they can be used to help predict outcomes, but there is a lot that they cannot measure and integrate into their models. The real value is being able to answer WHY and there is no better technique for being able to explain and assess the why in anything than qualitative analysis aka our eyeballs.Comment -
I do so much better Live betting. I can get a good feel for what's happening on the court that you can't see from just the stats. Is a matchup creating problems, are the teams in shape or not? Is one team wanting it more, putting out much effort? I've never, ever live betted a game that I was not watching but that's just me.
I posted a thread here on how to get league pass for $14 but the mods deleted it.Comment -
Yes live betting i can agree, i utilize it in soccer mostly, it usually defies motivation but to predict before is completely different...Comment -
I don't understand how you can agree that direct observation is more useful during the actual event, but feel that modeling is better at predicting before the actual event starts. Seems contradictory. If modeling is superior before the game starts, it should still be superior to direct observation once the event has begun and once it is all said and done, right? But like Mac says, there so much that statistical analysis and predictive modeling can't possibly measure because we have not figured out how to perfectly quantify humans, let alone "superhumans"---the ol' positivism paradigm vs interpretivism argument.Comment -
Only dummies pay for these league passess or tv.
You can stream all televised major and college sports in HD stream here. But make sure you run adblocker, if not you are screwed.
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Another issue with relying solely on stats/advanced stats and models is that they can be deceiving, as many teams with a lead, such as in the NHL, will shift gears and start to play more defensively towards the end of the third period, especially with a one goal lead. On the flip side, this will then influence shots allowed, shots taken, puck possession, etc and if you were to solely analyze the game from a statistical view, you'd rate them worse because the context is not taken into account. You also see this if the NFL when teams with a lead start to play not to lose, instead of staying in gear, as they did to build the lead.Comment -
thank you sir. but i dont watch no one run back and forth .. i just bet the numbers on any game. glComment -
I never watch full games. I don't remember the last time i watched a full game from start to finish in any sport. Only time is when i actually go to the game or when i am at the pub/bar with friends but even then i am busy socializing and dont' really watch everything. I usually tune into games towards the last half of the final period/quarterComment -
what is the purpose of tuning in towards the last half of the final period/quarter?Comment -
The majority of hockey games have not been decided in the final 10 minutes of the period. I can't speak for the NBA because my approach to capping/betting forces me to limit my exposure to different betting markets. It's been the first 5/6ths of the game that have largely determined the outcome in the NHL.Comment -
I don't really watch hockey with the exception of playoff time.
I also don't think watching as many games improves your betting. Yes, those who watch a lot of games can breakdown match ups well but when it comes to betting those who watch the most games usually lose more.Comment -
Usually lose more than who? Modelers? Statistical handicappers? There's a lot of generalizations being made and I'd agree that more "observational" gamblers lose because most of the public follows and bets their local markets and watches games. But I'd disagree that the amount of fail associated with "observational" handicapping is a far greater % than the other cursory approaches.Comment
