I've made money with public/square plays throughout the years..

[imgv94]

(I posted this on another forum and received numerous positive responses)

From imgv:

I've made a ton of money playing both public and non-public plays. If you know how to cap properly you don't need to try to fade the public to win..

I see alot of people throwing money away week after week playing the "supposed SHARP anti Public plays",just for the sake of trying to fade the public. It obviously doesn't work everytime cause if it did we would all be rich just fading what the side the public has the most action on..

It makes people capping the games second guess themselves and it confuses the shit out of them to the point where they bet less or not at all..

I'm on a 4 year winning streak in the NFL and I've won a ton with these "public so called square plays" TONS.. I don't play them all the time but when I do then win just as much as any other play..

Think about it alot of public plays do actually win.. Maybe not at a higher percentage but enough to where we don't just bet the dog or the anti public play solely..



It's all about timing..

[imgv94]

I am just tired of people labeling things so much to try to make themselves look sharp or something.

Last week someone told me they liked SF +7 vs N.O cause the public was all over the Saints. I asked him to give me another reason why he liked them and he couldn't?

Gave him about 10 reasons as to why I liked the Saints and we all know what happened in that game..

Something else thats funny two of biggest plays this season?

One was a major public play(Saints last week)
and
One was major non public play(Cowboys vs Indy)

You have to be open minded... I'm not saying go out and bet every so called square public play but don't just bet against them without capping the game, you might be throwing away money..

[Stumpage]

I am just tired of people labeling things so much to try to make themselves look sharp or something.

I completely agree...In my past, I followed a few touts here and there before learning my lesson. There was one fellow in particular who used to give long and detailed writeups supporting his picks, which was fine as long as he had some compelling information. But I always used to laugh when he would suggest a play simply because he was "betting against the public", "staying away from the trap", "not being suckered by the books", etc. Just state your case, without all the "Here's why I'm so smart" crap...Anyway, just something that always used to bother me, as those plays seemed to lose far more often than not.

[Checkerboard]

Yeah, I'm glad you started this thread. 'Cap and make your
pick. That's it. If your play's with public or sharps doesn't matter, as long as you like your play.

[nevadaside]

Good points imgv.
I think you can certaninly over analyze plays for sure. I'm no expert but I think just watching the games week in & week out & checking everyones opinions to some extent, then just going with your instincts, especially when something is really pulling you that way. I've past on many strong leans I had because alot of experts here & elsewhere were going against it & lost potential $'s I could have had for next week.

I shoot a lot of Craps too, the instinct thing is the same when gambling no matter what the hell it is, once you've been at it long enough to put educated reasoning with that instinct.

Those kooks selling their piks pretty much bite as far as I'm concerned. A hell of a lot of cappers (imgv, pags, razz, primo, austintx, p2min06, & lots others) here on these forums kick ass over those guys......IMO.

[nevadaside]

I meant good points everyone.

[Jay Edgar]

Well said, bro.

It starts and ends with handicapping -- which is hard work. (Oops, I feel a sermon coming on . . . .)

The air's so full of noise about sharps and squares and wise guy moves and sucker plays. Lots of that noise is sloppy and unreliable and some of it contains flat-out lies advanced to serve the liar's interests.

Obsessing on it is the lazy man's way to participate in the game, have action, and feel sophisticated. The better and less glamourous way is to sit your ass at the kitchen table, or whatever, for several hours every night. Find value, manage your money, and use how the public behaves and thinks to get the best price on your own hard work.

(Very high horsey, sorry.)

[imgv94]

Well said, bro.

It starts and ends with handicapping -- which is hard work. (Oops, I feel a sermon coming on . . . .)

The air's so full of noise about sharps and squares and wise guy moves and sucker plays. Lots of that noise is sloppy and unreliable and some of it contains flat-out lies advanced to serve the liar's interests.

Obsessing on it is the lazy man's way to participate in the game, have action, and feel sophisticated. The better and less glamourous way is to sit your ass at the kitchen table, or whatever, for several hours every night. Find value, manage your money, and use how the public behaves and thinks to get the best price on your own hard work.

(Very high horsey, sorry.)

This is a great post that should be in the SBR hall of fame.

Jay Edgar

[LLXC]

Yea, public isn't always wrong...otherwise, I wouldn't win a bet

[louis]

The public and pros are often on both sides of a game

Most games the public is betting both sides of the game, and the sharps have no interest in the game at all.

Those few games that are of interest to professional bettors, you don't have all the sharps on one side and all the public on the other. The public is often on both sides, perhaps in greater numbers on one side or the other. Or maybe the public is evenly split, the professionals start liking one of the sides, and they move the line. But certainly this is not betting "against the public".

On many games pros are on both sides, at different spreads. It all depends on the spread what side a pro likes. There is a spread at which a pro will like any team in any game, and another spread which would get the pro to like the other side very fast.

That is absolutely ridiculous for a tout to say you are betting against the public. yes, you had better know why you are making the bet other than it is against the public.