Nash September MLB selection and blog thread (guaranteed to be loaded with opinions)

Grivas_Digeni · 09-01-17, 07:07 PM

Good early texture, as someone would say.

What do you think of fading Kershaw? Isn't this line a little too close to what it should be with him fully healthy and w/o pitch count?

stevenash · 09-01-17, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Grivas_Digeni

Good early texture, as someone would say.

What do you think of fading Kershaw? Isn't this line a little too close to what it should be with him fully healthy and w/o pitch count?

Yeah, Kershaw is on a tight leash tonight, and SD's starter Lament has filthy shit, if SD had a better lineup I'd probably fade away, I am considering taking SD + 1 1/2 on the run, as of right now it's a lean and not a play.

stevenash · 09-02-17, 06:52 PM

Just walked in the door, out all day, which is another reason why I'm a spot player on this site, because I don't have the time to devote to it these days like I did four and half, five years ago.

As I was saying, just walked in the door, checked out the early scores noticed Kluiber is bitch slapping Detroit.
Could be your Cy Young Award winner there.

Up 5-0 late, looks like the Sons of Wahoo are about to win their tenth consecutive game.
Meanwhile I see the Dodgers lost to the SD Padres, and if it wasn't for Mr. Kershaw last night shutting out SD 1-0 your fancy LA Dodgers would be on a seven game losing streak.

Mighty quiet in Dodger town these days, those chatty LA fans not so chirpy any more.

OK, times running out here.

My Reds play hit yesterday for +120
So that would make me 1-0 +120 for the month.

Tonight's play

Under 11.5 total runs in the Colorado and Arizona game.

Why?

Because Jon Gray is one of the greatest pitchers that ever pitched for the Rockies at home.
Look it up for yourself if you doubt me.
The dude is sporting a 3.00 at Coors, which is like Bob Gibson's entire 1968 season.

Patrick Corbin goes for Arizona, he's not what you call their ace by any stretch, by no means a cheeseburger either, ho-hum numbers across the board except for a stellar 141 K's in 159 IP's and his last start was a gem.
I can see the Rox pushing across four or five runs across tonight, not nearly enough though to send the total to 12 plus runs.

Actually I feel the Coors-men with Gray might be able to end Arizona's 8 game winning streak, but I ain't fading this Arizona team right now, like the line in Bull Durham goes "got to respect the streak"

ARIZONA v. COLORADO UNDER 11.5 RUNS (my only play tonight)
1*

mackave · 09-02-17, 07:11 PM

Nasher my god what happened with KC, hopefully no one laid money on them. Jeez

stevenash · 09-02-17, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by mackave

Nasher my god what happened with KC, hopefully no one laid money on them. Jeez

Who uses 102 pitches to get the first six outs.
Scherzer doesn't need 102 pitches to throw a complete game shutout.

I'm a numbers guy, my hobby involves numbers, my career involves numbers.
As a numbers guy I can not wrap my head around this.

102 pitches to get the first six outs.
That's unbelievable, well it's believable because it just happened.

O Garcia	0.1	4	4	4	1	0	23-15	13.50
A Machado	0.2	4	6	6	3	0	47-25	81.00
E Skoglund	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	32-18	9.75

HockeyRocks · 09-03-17, 08:41 AM

2-0 Nasher...

stevenash · 09-03-17, 12:51 PM

Holy shit, I was looking at the later game lines, when was the last time you saw a 7 flat total on a Yankee and Red Sox game, and the under is juiced to the bee-jeezus at -120.

Could we actually see a Sunday night (oh no, yet another Sunday ESPN night game involving the Yankees and Red Sox?) that doesn't involve Yanks and Red Sox.
Hello ESPN there are 28 other teams in the league.
How many times have those two teams met on Sunday night before? 1000?

Who knows, this one could end before 1 am east coast time for a change.

OK, I'll have more time for my opinions later, I got things to do.

Hit yesterday's play

September to date record is 2-0 (for those of you who think that's really really imperative to keep a running update of such things)
+2.2 * or +$220 if you will.

Today's play

Tampa Bay Rays (Andriese) run line -1.5 runs over Chicago White Six (Giolito) +105

Why?
Because I think Tampa Bay wins this but I don't like laying -156 on the road, hell I don't like laying -156 anywhere.
I'll only bet run lines on games I like only on the road, because the road team is guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, no batter the score.
Also (God forbid) if the play goes south I'm only on the hook for 100 instead of being on the hook for 156.
(Also if the play goes south, you can count on the miseralbes to jump ugly on me calling me all sorts of names and stuff)

Andriese was on his way to a fine season before getting hurt, he made 8 full starts in April and May, 7 of them he gave up 3 earned or less.
Giolito is making his third start for the White Sox this year, he made four last year and was brutally bad.
He gives up too many fly balls, and Tampa loves to hit fly balls, may of them go over the fence.
Guys like Sousa, and Morrison, and even Longoria can go deep on him today, plus the rest of that line up can rake.

TB has the better starter here, better offense here, and they are fighting for that second wild card spot, if this play does go south it won't be from a lack of effort.

2:10 start
Rays +105 (run line)
1*

stevenash · 09-04-17, 05:18 PM

I'm probably walking into a big steaming pile of dog shit here but I'm betting the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight and taking +157 odds, I'm not going to try to figure out why the books are offering me +157 on in my opinion an even up proposition, you want to make LA -125 for home field advantage, I'm OK with that, but if you're offering me +157 on this game I'm betting 8 days a week.

Rich Hill got ambushed his last start, against this very Arizona team, Hill didn't fool any of the Snakes hitters, why should he fool them tonight?

Hill's recent starts have not been very good, he's given up at least one home run in each of his last six starts, he coughed up three homers against the Mets, he's given up 3 earned runs or more in each of his last six starts, Robbie Ray is nasty (starter for the D-Backs) the Diamondbacks hit left handed pitching better than the Dodgers do, the Diamondbacks have a better offense too.

Dodgers are playing ordinary baseball, 14 and 11 in their last 25 games, the only thing LA has going for them is they are home.

I am forgetting anything?
Oh yeah, something about a ten game winning streak.
I'm not fading no 10 game winning streak.

Tampa Bay forgot how to hit yesterday and that dopey run line bet shit the bed.
2-1 for September and +1.20 units are the profits or + $120.00 if you will.

Snakes tonight +157
1*

goduke · 09-04-17, 05:52 PM

He gave up 6 runs because he pitched 9 innings 10ks and gave up one hit the start before that. He was probably burned from his last start, most pitchers suck after throwing or nearly throwing a no hit game. You skewed your write up slightly to fit the side you were betting.

stevenash · 09-04-17, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by goduke

He gave up 6 runs because he pitched 9 innings 10ks and gave up one hit the start before that. He was probably burned from his last start, most pitchers suck after throwing or nearly throwing a no hit game. You skewed your write up slightly to fit the side you were betting.

Hill pitched that game on an extra days rest, don't give me that he was burnt out bull shit.
Point #2, he needed only 99 pitching in that nine inning game he threw, two starts before that he used 101 pitches and lasted only six innings.
Doesn't change the fact Hill has looked not nearly as good the past month and half as he did in the beginning of the season.
You just made my point anyway, seems like as the season wears on Hill runs out of gas.
He gave up one homer in May, three homers in June, two homers in July, then in August he coughs up seven in August.

Your argument with me is he was probably burnt, I disproved that as he pitched on an extra day of rest.
Then I went on to further disprove that by saying he only used 99 pitches in that game you claim he was burnt out, in which to I say he has used more that 100 pitches earlier this season in several games.

Then you said I skewed the write up slightly to fit the side I was betting, to which I say I skewed nothing, I am pointing out facts.

You tried to do the same shit with me when I stated a large majority of baseball games are decided by more than one run, you called me out on that one, then I proved out my statement with stone cold facts it was, what? 71.2 percent of the games that were decided by more than one run.

Then this is what I heard out of you after that.
Crickets.

The more you try to discredit me, the more you look like the idiot that you are.
Hey, my thread, I said it's going to be loaded with opinions, that's my opinion, your're a jackass.

goduke · 09-04-17, 09:29 PM

You think 99 pitches of a perfect game is the same as 101 pitches. Not a chance. You said hills recent starts have not been good even though one of them was a one hitter. again you skew stuff in a way to help your argument but not necessarily completely truthful. I expect nothing less from you I guess. You'll never change

goduke · 09-04-17, 09:34 PM

In your argument you say he isn't burned out then you say he is. Must be hard to be wrong when you argue both sides. F.ucking moron

stevenash · 09-04-17, 09:55 PM

Originally posted by goduke

In your argument you say he isn't burned out then you say he is. Must be hard to be wrong when you argue both sides. F.ucking moron

No I said he didn't burn himself out in that game.
99 pitches is 99 pitches, and 101 pitches is 101 pitches.
I was a catcher for years, the same amount of strain is put on the arm throwing a 80 MPH curveball whether it's a one hit effort or a 4 run effort.

I get it, you laid the 8 to 5 on the Dodgers, and now you are looking to take out your frustrations on anyone or anything.
I made the sharp bet and I am counting my money.

This is my problem with you, and there are thousands.
If I make a selection and don't back it up, you'd call me a dart thrower.
If I make a selection and back it up, and I always back my selections up with reasoning because I like to let people know why I am making a selection you will try to cherry pick it apart.

You say Hill threw a masterpiece but the next start he must have been burnt out the next start and that's why he got hammered.
I said he threw 99 pitches, that did not burn him out, and I said he also had an extra days rest.

I also said this:

Rich Hill got ambushed his last start, against this very Arizona team, Hill didn't fool any of the Snakes hitters, why should he fool them tonight?

Hill's recent starts have not been very good, he's given up at least one home run in each of his last six starts, he coughed up three homers against the Mets, he's given up 3 earned runs or more in each of his last six starts, Robbie Ray is nasty (starter for the D-Backs) the Diamondbacks hit left handed pitching better than the Dodgers do, the Diamondbacks have a better offense too.

Dodgers are playing ordinary baseball, 14 and 11 in their last 25 games, the only thing LA has going for them is they are home.

The part that is confuses you is the part where I said his recent starts.
Oh, so sorry I didn't say his recent six starts haven't been very good except for the Pirate start.
And even if I did write it up that way you would have tried to cherry pick from some other angle.

Bottom line, I hit another spot play, you must have laid the lumber like squares do.
Pay the bookie chump, the money you pay him is going into my pocket.
Want the last word, go for it, you ain't getting a response, so that makes you have the last word.
And my money is on it'll be some dumb final last words, every time you have come at me, I've only made you look foolish.
Thanks for dropping by, don't go away mad, just go away.

By the way that makes me 3 and 1 for the month +2.77 units.

Carry on.

stevenash · 09-04-17, 10:00 PM

OK, I did make one mistake, I said 3 earned in each of his last six.
What was meant, and it's an honest mistake, 3 earned in 3 of his last six starts.

I had to re-read it three times to see what the fuk you were talking about.
Honest mistake.
Still, the point was still he's not pitching like he did in the first half, you keep telling me your smart, you must have gotten my point.

JD Martinez just hit a fourth home run.

JD Martinez - 4 home runs.
LA Dodgers - 3 hits

stevenash · 09-05-17, 12:29 PM

You know, I've been writing up MLB games here at SBR going on six years now.
This is what I have observed.
In six years (almost) not one veteran poster or respected poster here has even questioned my integrity or credibility.
The very few that has in the past all have zero or next to zero integrity. Funny how that works.
If I make a mistake in providing details in my write ups, it's just that, an honest mistake.
And I don't make many of them, but being a human being and all I am going to make a mistake.
If I say I made a bet for whatever amount, if one has trouble with my claim, ask me about it, I'll always back in up with a screen shot.
I've done it every time in six years, I have gotten this a few times "umm, Nash, did you really bet xxx dollars on xxx team"
My response is always "yes, sure did, hang on a second let me get a screen shot for you"

I don't do this for pay, I do this for shits and giggle.
I'm a) a baseball junkie b) a numbers geek c) I love to write about a and b.
I can't think of any other forums better than this one right here.

Like I said, I don't do this for pay, I don't have a proof reader and I don't have an editor, of course mistakes are going to be made.
If there is a mistake in my bookkeeping, it's just that, an honest mistake.
If there is a mistake in a detail in my write ups, it's just that, an honest mistake.
It's so easy to type 42 and what you really wanted to write is 24.

Funny, if you don't provide reasoning to your selection and just post "Detroit Red Wings 100 dollars" your'e labeled a dart thrower by the ones whose sole purpose on these boards is to troll.
If you provide details to your selections and God forbid make a mistake in the details you're accused of skewing facts.
Like I said, the very select few that try to question one's integrity are the ones that have no integrity and have posted no plays here or if they have they are very few and far between.

Oh well, I hate this expression but here goes anyway.
"Haters going to hate", and as the former great Mayor of NYC Rudy G. once said "if all the people all the time liked everything I was doing, I'm not doing by job.

I guess I'm doing my job here.

September 5 MLB

Everybody has their own methods of handicapping.
I have my methods, I know the poster Biggie who is extremely successful here has his own way of handicapping.
if a method works for you and you are successful that's all that matters.

After Labor Day I try to make it a practice to stay away from betting games where both teams have nothing to play for.
Usually when you get a game between two teams after Labor Day that are totally out of contention for post season play the managers will start some of the minor league players called up when you can expand the dugout roster.
Those games are crap shoots, it's like betting NFL exhibition games.

Today is an interesting slate.
Full complement of 15 games, of which 9 of the 15 games the road team is favored.
I'm what's known as a spot bettor, I don't do these ongoing threads much anymore, this one I'm doing is because I was asked and it's only for a month,
I don't like to lay lumber (bet chalk) when I bet baseball, if you've been doing this for awhile you'll learn betting chalk will cripple your bankroll, and the only successful handicapper that I know of that bets chalk is Benjamin Lee "Dr. Chalk" Eckstein.
I don't want to say never, so I'll say it's extremely rare I'll bet a baseball game over odds over -140
I don't like to go over -134, why 134? 134 is pretty much 4 to win 3. I'll lay 400 to win 300 only if I really love the side.

When handicapping MLB I always, always start with pitching.
Why, pitching wins, it always has and always will.
Been like that since the T-Rex was roaming the earth.

Want proof? The top 12 ranked MLB pitching teams are all teams that are leading their division or are still in contention for a wild card game. The best ranked pitching team not in contention for October baseball are the #13 ranked Pittsburgh Pirates.

As I was saying, usually you don't get 9 road favorites (or 9 home 'dogs if you will) on a baseball slate.
Tonight you do.
As a spot player that really dislikes laying chalk there are two ways to look at those nine games.
Find the spot where the home underdog has value, or bet the road favorite that has the superior pitching match up, bet that game on the run line, for example make that -150 road favorite a +120 underdog and lay 1 1/2 runs.
Betting run lines is a sucker bet (usually) when the side you like is the home team, because you're team is not guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, there are spots when betting the road favorite on the run line can be extremely advantageous, because your side will always get a ninth inning at bat, where you get a chance to expand on a 4-3 lead and win that -1 1/2 bet, a home team winning 4-3 after 8.5 innings doesn't get that chance, your team wins 4-3 but you lose your bet.

The Cubs are -168 on the road tonight against the Pirates.
I'm passing on both sides there.
I don't trust Kyle Hendricks as a big favorite, and reducing the -168 on the run line to -110 has no value in my eyes.
That's my opinion, and I can't bet Pitt because they are starting a cheeseburger lefty that gets killed by RH batters, and Cubs have LH and RH batters that love to eat cheeseburgers. I can not make a case for Pitt, I can for the Cubs, but I don't like Kendricks.

The Nationals with Strasburg are -180 on the road in Miami.
Even though the Nats have the superior pitching match up, I'm not betting either side.
Stras has crippled many a bank roll as a heavy favorite in the past.
Several times he's shit the beat at -200 odds, I don't trust him at either -180 or -120 where in my opinion has next to no value.
Secondly, I would't fade a team that has a road runner at the top of the order followed by Mr. Stanton, Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Realmuto. No way no how do I like fading that line up.

Yankees are -111 on the road in Baltimore.
I can't bet fat CC because his knee is creaky and can't bend down to pick up a ball, and that makes him a liability, and the Balty bats are lethal.
And I can't bet Hellickson because, well, he's a hamburger that the Yanks bats should abuse.

Can't bet the Indians, well I love to bet the Indians and the Diamondbacks right now because right now those are the best two teams in the majors, you don't have to have the best won-loss record to be the best team in the league.

Anyhow, I can not lay -260 on the road with Salazar, I can't even bet the run line at -150 because laying 3:2 on a run line is still a ton of lumber to lay. BIG.FAT.PASS there.

The Angels are -147 with Garrett Richards making his first start since making his first start back in April when he got hurt.
I'm a huge Garrett and Shoemaker fan out there in Angel land, however I think he's going to be on a short leash pitch count and I don't trust the Angel bull pen, but pulling for the dude big time never the less.

There are four road favorites I am considering betting, and I'm going to handicap those three games hard and will bet the road favorite that has the best value.

They are:
The KC Royals with Vargas over the Detroit Tigers and Dirty Sanchez
Royals are -121, I (after really breaking down the situational splits) can bet straight up, on a run line or use in parlays.

The other two:
Astros with Verlander over Mariners and Miranda at +110 on the run line

This is how I handicap this game.
I determine who has the pitching match up advantage.
The answer is Mr. Kate Upton.
The three batters that can do damage against Veralnder (Cano, Cruz, and Seagar) only Seagar has shown in the past, and the BvP sample size is huge. Cano and Cruz both have pretty weak numbers against JV.

OK, so I've broken down the situational splits on JV I move on to Ariel Miranda.

Like a kick to the nuts, like a punch to my yam bags this sticks out.
Miranda has given up THIRTY (30) home runs to right handed batters alone.
That's an incredible amount of big fly long balls coughed up, and that's just to right handed hitters.
And in case you are wondering yes, Miranda and Porcello are tied for giving up the most HR's in the majors.
And to put it in prospective, I stopped counting after 24 of the number of every day starters that have made all or most of their starts of starting pitchers that have given up less that 20 home runs, forget about 30.

So, even though I know the answer I'll double check the Astro regular everyday hitters that bat right and that can hit left handed pitching well because Miranda pitches with his left hand, and if I don't double check my work I can expect a visit from a trolling idiot or two.

Springer who leads off for Houston loves to hit left handed pitching and bats right. Springer had nine home runs off of southpaws this season, and Altuve your probable AL MVP (him or Trout) many consider the best LH pitching hitter in the game today has seven HR's off of LH batters. Correa the hot shot short stop has 5 HR's off of lefties and get this, he's back off of the disabled list and has only 77 at bats this season off of LH pitchers, Bregman at 3B has 5 homers too.

Correa hits .390 vs. LH pitching, Bregman hits .3497 vs LHP, Altuve, the major league leading hitter hits ONLY .339 against LH pitching and that's considered an off year for him. And Springer and his nine home runs vs. LH pitching, hits .319

Those four all hit at the top of the order, I say nothing is a lock (then the idiot trollers say I am hedging my bets because I say nothing is a lock) well there is no such thing, there is a strong likelihood that Houston wins this game with Mr. Verlander on the hill over Miranda, and I say there is a strong likelihood Houston with those four at the top of the order wins this game too by more than 1 run, since most games are won by more than 1 run.

But first before you bet the game check the lineup card, you never know who might get a day off.

You like propositions?
Only if you can get a good price consider Springer or Correa or Altuve or Bregman to hit a HR in the game prop.
Or a 'YES' to will there be a run scored in the first inning prop. That is if you like prop bets.

I'm wagering that Houston wins by 2 runs or more, damn, the line was +110 half an hour ago, now it's +105.
Damn it.
OK, I am still wagering 100 dead presidents to win 105 dead presidents that Houston does just that.

The final games I am looking at are the Brewers with Davies, but I'll get back to that one, Reds do hit a ton of bombs with Votto and Duvall and their pals, and Scooter is having himself a very nice season, but the Reds starter is a laughing stock punching bag (Stevenson)

The last one is the Cards with Wacha on the road against SD, but I'm throwing that out after looking at the home splits of SD Padres.
They're really a pretty good home team, and the Cards are 33-36 on road, I was starting to look at this game from SD point of view Travis Wood starts for them, as a Royals fan I know Travis Wood, he was an ordinary reliever for KC, then right before being traded Wood was starting, trouble with Wood is he uses 100 pitches to get 6 full innings, he likes giving up the walks, but Wacha is not a road warrior.
The number in my head that'll make me bet SD is +150, and it's sitting right now at +145

These are run line lines I am posting

As of 1 pm

Reduced Juice - Internet Only
Tue 9/5	901 Chicago Cubs K Hendricks - R	-1½ +100	o8½ -115
7:05PM	902 Pittsburgh Pirates S Brault - L	+1½ -110	u8½ +105
Tue 9/5	903 Milwaukee Brewers Z Davies - R	-1½ +130	o9½ -107
7:10PM	904 Cincinnati Reds R Stephenson - R	+1½ -140	u9½ -103
Tue 9/5	905 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R	-1½ -110	o8½ -105
7:10PM	906 Miami Marlins O Despaigne - R	+1½ +100	u8½ -105
Tue 9/5	907 Philadelphia Phillies B Lively - R	+1½ -120	o8 -103
7:10PM	908 New York Mets J deGrom - R	-1½ +110	u8 -107
Tue 9/5	909 San Francisco Giants T Blach - L	+1½ -115	o12½ +100
8:40PM	910 Colorado Rockies T Chatwood - R	-1½ +105	u12½ -110
Tue 9/5	911 Arizona Diamondbacks Z Greinke - R	+1½ -185	o8 +100
10:10PM	912 Los Angeles Dodgers H Ryu - L	-1½ +170	u8 -110
Tue 9/5	913 St. Louis Cardinals M Wacha - R	-1½ +115	o8½ +105
10:10PM	914 San Diego Padres T Wood - L	+1½ -125	u8½ -115
Tue 9/5	915 New York Yankees C Sabathia - L	-1½ +140	o10 -103
7:05PM	916 Baltimore Orioles J Hellickson - R	+1½ -150	u10 -107
Tue 9/5	917 Toronto Blue Jays M Estrada - R	+1½ -115	o9½ -122
7:10PM	918 Boston Red Sox E Rodriguez - L	-1½ +105	u9½ +112
Tue 9/5	919 Minnesota Twins B Colon - R	+1½ -150	o9½ +110
7:10PM	920 Tampa Bay Rays J Odorizzi - R	-1½ +140	u9½ -120
Tue 9/5	921 Kansas City Royals J Vargas - L	-1½ +130	o10 +100
7:10PM	922 Detroit Tigers A Sanchez - R	+1½ -140	u10 -110
Tue 9/5	923 Cleveland Indians D Salazar - R	-1½ -145	o9½ +110
8:10PM	924 Chicago White Sox D Holmberg - L	+1½ +135	u9½ -120
Tue 9/5	925 Los Angeles Angels G Richards - R	-1½ +120	o9½ -105
10:05PM	926 Oakland Athletics K Graveman - R	+1½ -130	u9½ -105
Tue 9/5	927 Houston Astros J Verlander - R	-1½ +105	o9½ +110
10:10PM	928 Seattle Mariners A Miranda - L	+1½ -115	u9½ -120
Tue 9/5	929 Texas Rangers M Gonzalez - R	+1½ -200	o9½ -105
7:35PM	930 Atlanta Braves L Gohara - L	-1½ +185	u9½ -105

I'm starting to swing back to the Brewers, right now it's a strong lean, no play.
If I bet the Brews you guys will be the second to know, I'll be the first to know.

Right now, it's Houston for 1* on the run line.
100 to win 105.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

454161160-1

9/5/17 1:01pm

$100.00

$105.00

Pending

9/5/17 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 927 Houston Astros -1½ +105* vs Seattle Mariners (J Verlander - R must Start A Miranda - L must Start)

vegaschulo · 09-05-17, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

You know, I've been writing up MLB games here at SBR going on six years now.
This is what I have observed.
In six years (almost) not one veteran poster or respected poster here has even questioned my integrity or credibility.
The very few that has in the past all have zero or next to zero integrity. Funny how that works.
If I make a mistake in providing details in my write ups, it's just that, an honest mistake.
And I don't make many of them, but being a human being and all I am going to make a mistake.
If I say I made a bet for whatever amount, if one has trouble with my claim, ask me about it, I'll always back in up with a screen shot.
I've done it every time in six years, I have gotten this a few times "umm, Nash, did you really bet xxx dollars on xxx team"
My response is always "yes, sure did, hang on a second let me get a screen shot for you"

I don't do this for pay, I do this for shits and giggle.
I'm a) a baseball junkie b) a numbers geek c) I love to write about a and b.
I can't think of any other forums better than this one right here.

Like I said, I don't do this for pay, I don't have a proof reader and I don't have an editor, of course mistakes are going to be made.
If there is a mistake in my bookkeeping, it's just that, an honest mistake.
If there is a mistake in a detail in my write ups, it's just that, an honest mistake.
It's so easy to type 42 and what you really wanted to write is 24.

Funny, if you don't provide reasoning to your selection and just post "Detroit Red Wings 100 dollars" your'e labeled a dart thrower by the ones whose sole purpose on these boards is to troll.
If you provide details to your selections and God forbid make a mistake in the details you're accused of skewing facts.
Like I said, the very select few that try to question one's integrity are the ones that have no integrity and have posted no plays here or if they have they are very few and far between.

Oh well, I hate this expression but here goes anyway.
"Haters going to hate", and as the former great Mayor of NYC Rudy G. once said "if all the people all the time liked everything I was doing, I'm not doing by job.

I guess I'm doing my job here.

September 5 MLB

Everybody has their own methods of handicapping.
I have my methods, I know the poster Biggie who is extremely successful here has his own way of handicapping.
if a method works for you and you are successful that's all that matters.

After Labor Day I try to make it a practice to stay away from betting games where both teams have nothing to play for.
Usually when you get a game between two teams after Labor Day that are totally out of contention for post season play the managers will start some of the minor league players called up when you can expand the dugout roster.
Those games are crap shoots, it's like betting NFL exhibition games.

Today is an interesting slate.
Full complement of 15 games, of which 9 of the 15 games the road team is favored.
I'm what's known as a spot bettor, I don't do these ongoing threads much anymore, this one I'm doing is because I was asked and it's only for a month,
I don't like to lay lumber (bet chalk) when I bet baseball, if you've been doing this for awhile you'll learn betting chalk will cripple your bankroll, and the only successful handicapper that I know of that bets chalk is Benjamin Lee "Dr. Chalk" Eckstein.
I don't want to say never, so I'll say it's extremely rare I'll bet a baseball game over odds over -140
I don't like to go over -134, why 134? 134 is pretty much 4 to win 3. I'll lay 400 to win 300 only if I really love the side.

When handicapping MLB I always, always start with pitching.
Why, pitching wins, it always has and always will.
Been like that since the T-Rex was roaming the earth.

Want proof? The top 12 ranked MLB pitching teams are all teams that are leading their division or are still in contention for a wild card game. The best ranked pitching team not in contention for October baseball are the #13 ranked Pittsburgh Pirates.

As I was saying, usually you don't get 9 road favorites (or 9 home 'dogs if you will) on a baseball slate.
Tonight you do.
As a spot player that really dislikes laying chalk there are two ways to look at those nine games.
Find the spot where the home underdog has value, or bet the road favorite that has the superior pitching match up, bet that game on the run line, for example make that -150 road favorite a +120 underdog and lay 1 1/2 runs.
Betting run lines is a sucker bet (usually) when the side you like is the home team, because you're team is not guaranteed a ninth inning at bat, there are spots when betting the road favorite on the run line can be extremely advantageous, because your side will always get a ninth inning at bat, where you get a chance to expand on a 4-3 lead and win that -1 1/2 bet, a home team winning 4-3 after 8.5 innings doesn't get that chance, your team wins 4-3 but you lose your bet.

The Cubs are -168 on the road tonight against the Pirates.
I'm passing on both sides there.
I don't trust Kyle Hendricks as a big favorite, and reducing the -168 on the run line to -110 has no value in my eyes.
That's my opinion, and I can't bet Pitt because they are starting a cheeseburger lefty that gets killed by RH batters, and Cubs have LH and RH batters that love to eat cheeseburgers. I can not make a case for Pitt, I can for the Cubs, but I don't like Kendricks.

The Nationals with Strasburg are -180 on the road in Miami.
Even though the Nats have the superior pitching match up, I'm not betting either side.
Stras has crippled many a bank roll as a heavy favorite in the past.
Several times he's shit the beat at -200 odds, I don't trust him at either -180 or -120 where in my opinion has next to no value.
Secondly, I would't fade a team that has a road runner at the top of the order followed by Mr. Stanton, Christian Yelich, Ozuna, and Realmuto. No way no how do I like fading that line up.

Yankees are -111 on the road in Baltimore.
I can't bet fat CC because his knee is creaky and can't bend down to pick up a ball, and that makes him a liability, and the Balty bats are lethal.
And I can't bet Hellickson because, well, he's a hamburger that the Yanks bats should abuse.

Can't bet the Indians, well I love to bet the Indians and the Diamondbacks right now because right now those are the best two teams in the majors, you don't have to have the best won-loss record to be the best team in the league.

Anyhow, I can not lay -260 on the road with Salazar, I can't even bet the run line at -150 because laying 3:2 on a run line is still a ton of lumber to lay. BIG.FAT.PASS there.

The Angels are -147 with Garrett Richards making his first start since making his first start back in April when he got hurt.
I'm a huge Garrett and Shoemaker fan out there in Angel land, however I think he's going to be on a short leash pitch count and I don't trust the Angel bull pen, but pulling for the dude big time never the less.

There are four road favorites I am considering betting, and I'm going to handicap those three games hard and will bet the road favorite that has the best value.

They are:
The KC Royals with Vargas over the Detroit Tigers and Dirty Sanchez
Royals are -121, I (after really breaking down the situational splits) can bet straight up, on a run line or use in parlays.

The other two:
Astros with Verlander over Mariners and Miranda at +110 on the run line

This is how I handicap this game.
I determine who has the pitching match up advantage.
The answer is Mr. Kate Upton.
The three batters that can do damage against Veralnder (Cano, Cruz, and Seagar) only Seagar has shown in the past, and the BvP sample size is huge. Cano and Cruz both have pretty weak numbers against JV.

OK, so I've broken down the situational splits on JV I move on to Ariel Miranda.

Like a kick to the nuts, like a punch to my yam bags this sticks out.
Miranda has given up THIRTY (30) home runs to right handed batters alone.
That's an incredible amount of big fly long balls coughed up, and that's just to right handed hitters.
And in case you are wondering yes, Miranda and Porcello are tied for giving up the most HR's in the majors.
And to put it in prospective, I stopped counting after 24 of the number of every day starters that have made all or most of their starts of starting pitchers that have given up less that 20 home runs, forget about 30.

So, even though I know the answer I'll double check the Astro regular everyday hitters that bat right and that can hit left handed pitching well because Miranda pitches with his left hand, and if I don't double check my work I can expect a visit from a trolling idiot or two.

Springer who leads off for Houston loves to hit left handed pitching and bats right. Springer had nine home runs off of southpaws this season, and Altuve your probable AL MVP (him or Trout) many consider the best LH pitching hitter in the game today has seven HR's off of LH batters. Correa the hot shot short stop has 5 HR's off of lefties and get this, he's back off of the disabled list and has only 77 at bats this season off of LH pitchers, Bregman at 3B has 5 homers too.

Correa hits .390 vs. LH pitching, Bregman hits .3497 vs LHP, Altuve, the major league leading hitter hits ONLY .339 against LH pitching and that's considered an off year for him. And Springer and his nine home runs vs. LH pitching, hits .319

Those four all hit at the top of the order, I say nothing is a lock (then the idiot trollers say I am hedging my bets because I say nothing is a lock) well there is no such thing, there is a strong likelihood that Houston wins this game with Mr. Verlander on the hill over Miranda, and I say there is a strong likelihood Houston with those four at the top of the order wins this game too by more than 1 run, since most games are won by more than 1 run.

But first before you bet the game check the lineup card, you never know who might get a day off.

You like propositions?
Only if you can get a good price consider Springer or Correa or Altuve or Bregman to hit a HR in the game prop.
Or a 'YES' to will there be a run scored in the first inning prop. That is if you like prop bets.

I'm wagering that Houston wins by 2 runs or more, damn, the line was +110 half an hour ago, now it's +105.
Damn it.
OK, I am still wagering 100 dead presidents to win 105 dead presidents that Houston does just that.

The final games I am looking at are the Brewers with Davies, but I'll get back to that one, Reds do hit a ton of bombs with Votto and Duvall and their pals, and Scooter is having himself a very nice season, but the Reds starter is a laughing stock punching bag (Stevenson)

The last one is the Cards with Wacha on the road against SD, but I'm throwing that out after looking at the home splits of SD Padres.
They're really a pretty good home team, and the Cards are 33-36 on road, I was starting to look at this game from SD point of view Travis Wood starts for them, as a Royals fan I know Travis Wood, he was an ordinary reliever for KC, then right before being traded Wood was starting, trouble with Wood is he uses 100 pitches to get 6 full innings, he likes giving up the walks, but Wacha is not a road warrior.
The number in my head that'll make me bet SD is +150, and it's sitting right now at +145

These are run line lines I am posting

As of 1 pm

Reduced Juice - Internet Only
Tue 9/5	901 Chicago Cubs K Hendricks - R	-1½ +100	o8½ -115
7:05PM	902 Pittsburgh Pirates S Brault - L	+1½ -110	u8½ +105
Tue 9/5	903 Milwaukee Brewers Z Davies - R	-1½ +130	o9½ -107
7:10PM	904 Cincinnati Reds R Stephenson - R	+1½ -140	u9½ -103
Tue 9/5	905 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R	-1½ -110	o8½ -105
7:10PM	906 Miami Marlins O Despaigne - R	+1½ +100	u8½ -105
Tue 9/5	907 Philadelphia Phillies B Lively - R	+1½ -120	o8 -103
7:10PM	908 New York Mets J deGrom - R	-1½ +110	u8 -107
Tue 9/5	909 San Francisco Giants T Blach - L	+1½ -115	o12½ +100
8:40PM	910 Colorado Rockies T Chatwood - R	-1½ +105	u12½ -110
Tue 9/5	911 Arizona Diamondbacks Z Greinke - R	+1½ -185	o8 +100
10:10PM	912 Los Angeles Dodgers H Ryu - L	-1½ +170	u8 -110
Tue 9/5	913 St. Louis Cardinals M Wacha - R	-1½ +115	o8½ +105
10:10PM	914 San Diego Padres T Wood - L	+1½ -125	u8½ -115
Tue 9/5	915 New York Yankees C Sabathia - L	-1½ +140	o10 -103
7:05PM	916 Baltimore Orioles J Hellickson - R	+1½ -150	u10 -107
Tue 9/5	917 Toronto Blue Jays M Estrada - R	+1½ -115	o9½ -122
7:10PM	918 Boston Red Sox E Rodriguez - L	-1½ +105	u9½ +112
Tue 9/5	919 Minnesota Twins B Colon - R	+1½ -150	o9½ +110
7:10PM	920 Tampa Bay Rays J Odorizzi - R	-1½ +140	u9½ -120
Tue 9/5	921 Kansas City Royals J Vargas - L	-1½ +130	o10 +100
7:10PM	922 Detroit Tigers A Sanchez - R	+1½ -140	u10 -110
Tue 9/5	923 Cleveland Indians D Salazar - R	-1½ -145	o9½ +110
8:10PM	924 Chicago White Sox D Holmberg - L	+1½ +135	u9½ -120
Tue 9/5	925 Los Angeles Angels G Richards - R	-1½ +120	o9½ -105
10:05PM	926 Oakland Athletics K Graveman - R	+1½ -130	u9½ -105
Tue 9/5	927 Houston Astros J Verlander - R	-1½ +105	o9½ +110
10:10PM	928 Seattle Mariners A Miranda - L	+1½ -115	u9½ -120
Tue 9/5	929 Texas Rangers M Gonzalez - R	+1½ -200	o9½ -105
7:35PM	930 Atlanta Braves L Gohara - L	-1½ +185	u9½ -105

I'm starting to swing back to the Brewers, right now it's a strong lean, no play.
If I bet the Brews you guys will be the second to know, I'll be the first to know.

Right now, it's Houston for 1* on the run line.
100 to win 105.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

454161160-1

9/5/17 1:01pm

$100.00

$105.00

Pending

9/5/17 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 927 Houston Astros -1½ +105* vs Seattle Mariners (J Verlander - R must Start A Miranda - L must Start)

Great breakdown guy..lets go Astros! !! Gl man

Yee Area · 09-06-17, 01:47 AM

Loved the write up! Tailed on Astros $$$

stevenash · 09-06-17, 05:52 AM

^
Thanks, the result was a success, not exactly the way I thought the Astro's would win though.
I thought the top four in the order would go 6 for 16, not 1 for 12, but a win is a win is a win.

OK
Month to Date (for those of you keeping score at home, and I Know you are)

4 and 1
Picked up 105 there for the effort
+3.82 or $382.00

I knew Hendricks and the Cubs (well I didn't know for sure, let's say I had a feeling) that they would shit the bed last night at what -170 give or take, I don't know where the number settled at come first pitch. Hendricks is not a pitcher you wager when he's a big favorite on the road.

Arizona got bet down to like +120 last night, a bigger number I would have pulled the trigger but I didn't bet them, but I still watched them beat the most overrated 92 win team in baseball.

Cleveland just keeps steaming too, just because the Dodgers have the best record in baseball doesn't make them the best team in baseball, right now Cleveland is better than the Dodgers, and Arizona is just as good even though the record says LA is 11.5 games better, what happened in June and July doesn't apply to what happens (or happened) in September.

Got up to take a leak at around 2:10 am, looked real quick at the west coast scores because I fell asleep at 11:30, and the Red Sox game was in the 18th inning. Sox win in 19, they have to start Fister tonight, and they had to use 13 innings of bullpen relief, Blue Jays 12 innings of BP relief.

When handicapping this game tonight (Sox and Jays) you start with the bullpens first.
Pay attention to who is available and who is not.
The best bullpen that is available to pitch tonight will likely be your winner.

I have to go to my real life job, this what I do here is not real life, it's just fun and games.
Peace

jjgold · 09-06-17, 06:18 AM

grinding

Kid just a grinder with data

stevenash · 09-06-17, 06:28 AM

^
A spot play grinder.
Baseball is a grind, baseball is not a get rich quick sport

NFL you can get rich quicker, find two soft spots hammer that hard, not so much in baseball.
You know that Gold, you've known me longer than you think you have.

stevenash · 09-06-17, 04:56 PM

September 6 MLB

Back in post 1, when I first started this thread I wrote this:

The one game I'm really looking forward to is the Phillies and Marlins.
Why? Because the phenom out of the University of Texas and holder of a boatload of Big 12 awards
Dillon Peters makes his major league debut.
Peter's is a left handed starter who tore it up as a Longhorn at University of Texas, and tore it up in his short minor league career.
The Fish called him up (it's September 1, you can expand your roster) out of AA, no need to see him in the minor leagues any more he's all that. And if you're going to make your Major League debut who better to make your first start than the Phillies.

As I mentioned, Peter's throws left, he's 5' 10" 175 lbs, which is considered very small for pitchers, but is ripped and strong for the size and has one of those real slow delivery with a real fast whip of an arm, those of you who played the game know that style of delivery is tough to time and will keep you off balanced, and Peter's the advanced scout says closed and balanced.

His arsenal consists of a fast ball of average velocity around 86 to 88 MPH with sink movement as it approaches the plate which is very important if you're not throwing hard cheese. He has a + curve ball/change up, and his best pitch is his slider, almost Chris Archer type (even though Archer throws right handed) Peter's slider has big, big, sharp bite. Like I mentioned has electric arm speed.
Marlins are -165, I don't lay that kind of juice, and MLB first time starters are a dicey bet, hit or miss.

And the kid did not disappoint.

Tonight I expect Peters to keep the Nationals lineup off balanced as well.
With Harper Washington is a pretty good hitting left handed pitcher team, without Harper nothing special.
Peters faces Gio Gonzales tonight, a very difficult left handed pitchers to hit against, having an outstanding season.
He's not Kershaw, but the next tier down of left handed pitchers, border line but not quite elite.
I don't want to fade Gio, and I don't think the Nats are going to hurt the phenom.

The total is nine, I don't see much hitting tonight, the guy to fear of course is Stanton and he hasn't touched Gio in the past.
Stanton is 6 for 29 .207 0 home runs and of those 29 at at bats versus Gio, 9 times he struck out (or just a little less than 1 k every 3 at bats.

4 and 1 is the monthly record
+3.82 ($382.00) is the profit.

My best play tonight is Washington and Miami total nine runs UNDER
1*

stevenash · 09-07-17, 03:55 PM

Funny how the Dodgers in a two month span have gone from the second coming of the 1927 Yankees to the second coming of the 1962 Mets.

Kershaw probably stops the bleeding tonight, but I'm not laying the -310 to find out, just like Kluber should keep the Indian express going, but I ain't going to lay -275 to find that out either.

Believe it or not, betting these two gigantic favorites on a two team parlay takes a bite out the books edge.
I can prove it in math, but I don't have as much free time today as I have in the past few days.

If you bet both the Indians and the Dodgers straight up 100 dollars each, you would have to lay 310 to win 100 on LA, and in the Indian game you would have to lay 275 to win 100.

If you bet the two on a 100 dollar parlay, -310 and -275 in a two teamer pay off 80 dollars, or 4:5.
Of course both sides need to win for you to collect the 80 dollars.

If you wagered two separate 100 dollar bets, one on the Indians and one on the Dodgers, and let's say Kluber loses you owe the book 275, and let's say Kershaw wins, you collect the 100. 275 lost on the Indians, and 100 won on the Dodgers leaves you 175 dollars in the hole, reverse that say Cleveland wins and LA loses again, you're 210 in the hole (collect 100 on Cleveland, lose 310 on LA).

On the two team parlay if one of the two loses, the parlay loses, but you're only out the 100.
Of course you'd collect 200 if both teams win, and 200 won is better than 80 dollars won, but you'd have to lay 585 (310 + 275 ) to win the 200., where as you'd only have to lay 100 to win the 80, or 250 to win 200.

The parlay is the smarter bet, and if you want to bet both Kluber and Kershaw that's the smartest way to bet it, on a two team parlay. You're getting paid less on the parlay for sure, but if one of the two goes down your bankroll is not taking nearly as big a hit.

Moving on.................

Last night I got the Nats and Marlins under 9 total runs.
Bottom of ninth, Nats up 8-0, first and third one out, Marlins batter hits a ankle high line drive to the first baseman, who makes the catch (apparently) step on first umpire calls game ending double play as first baseman steps on the bag to double up the runner running on contact.
Game over, Nats win 8-0 Nasher collects his total bet.

But wait a minute, here come manager Don Mattingly to contest the call, he says the ball skipped into the first baseman (Zimmerman's) glove. Call gets over ruled, the out at first counts, making it two out, but they let the runner at third base run at home count.

Bull shit, so instead of game over 8-0, it's now 2 out 8-1.
Next batter makes lame out, instead of win, I settle for a push.
Don't you hate that?

MLB 9/7

2 plays I like tonight, one I'm going to post now, the other I am going to wait until the line up card is posted.

My top play is the Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves and this is why.
It is true that both starters will never win any Cy Young Awards any time soon, the Marlin pitcher (Strailey) is in my opinion the better of the two and much more trust worthy.

The only knock on Strailey is this, he's prone to give up a home run too many to right handed hitters, but he's facing the Braves here, not the Indians or the Cubs, and looking at the Braves line up the only right handed batters with some pop are Kemp, and the catcher Suzuki. (Freeman hits from the left side)
I'm OK with Strailey's 3.91 ERA, and the 1.22 WH/IP is nice, almost solid and his K ratio is about 8 K's per nine innings iand doesn't walk many,

Braves start Newcomb, a beefy lefty out of Brockton Mass. if your'e from Brockton Mass (like the boxer Marvin Hagler) you better know how to use your hands. As I was saying, Newcomb goes 6' 5" 255 lbs and throws left.
He owns a 2 and 8 record, a not very good 4.31 ERA and an God awful 1.59 WH/IP or almost 15 base runners per nine (his K ratio is high on his behalf, but the K's don't bail him out)

Here's the problem with Newcomb tonight.
He's in a real bad spot.
The top five in the Marlins line up tonight all mash left handed pitching, and Newcomb in not a good one (but I'm not going to tell Newcomb he sucks because, well, he's a big beefy white kid from Brockton Mass that goes 6' 5" 255 lbs for the love of God)

Marlins top five in the batting order tonight are the usual top five and here's how they do versus LH pitching.

Miami Marlins 2025 MLB Regular Season Batting Stats - ESPN

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/mia/split/31

Get the full batting stats for the 2025 Regular Season Miami Marlins on ESPN. Includes team leaders in batting average, RBIs and home runs.

This is where I stop breaking down this game.
Marlins have the better starter.
Marlins have the better line up.
I'm done breaking this game down.

There's two ways to bet this game.
Get greedy and bet the road favorites Marlins at +140 on run line.
or do it this way.
Game line is -115, which is the same as a juiced pick 'em game

My top play tonight is

Marlins - 115 over Braves
1*

I pushed my bet last night and the total for the month is 4-1-1
+3.82*

2daBank · 09-07-17, 04:02 PM

If anyone really likes those big ol juicy MLB favs tonight they could also put them together w pats ml to knock the juice down, doesn't seem very likely you would get burnt w the NFL half of the equation!!

stevenash · 09-07-17, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

If anyone really likes those big ol juicy MLB favs tonight they could also put them together w pats ml to knock the juice down, doesn't seem very likely you would get burnt w the NFL half of the equation!!

Pats at home is like almost automatic, thing is the money line in Pats games at home are always juiced to Neptune.
-480 is way to much, what you can do is buy a touchdown and make it -4 for -220 or -240.
What bothers me there is the Chiefs play staunch defense.

2daBank · 09-07-17, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Pats at home is like almost automatic, thing is the money line in Pats games at home are always juiced to Neptune.
-480 is way to much, what you can do is buy a touchdown and make it -4 for -220 or -240.
What bothers me there is the Chiefs play staunch defense.

Yea I think it too high cause of my respect for kc and fact I think it gonna take pats offense some time to gel w all the new pieces. Just saying if one so inclined to want to play those big MLB favs tonight they have a unique opportunity to cut the juice down by parlaying pats ml with whichever they like, certainly not for me as I wouldn't be caught dead laying -200 or more on a baseball game parlay or otherwise but I know others don't feel that way.

stevenash · 09-07-17, 05:15 PM

^
This is where we disagree, I believe the only time to bet a -200 baseball game is on a parlay.
By the way, Lance Lynn is also in a good spot later tonight.

stevenash · 09-09-17, 12:11 PM

How about those Dodgers huh? Aren't they the best?
Got a funny feeling Tomlin and the Indians finally lose one today, but I ain't touching that.
I've never faded a 16 game winning streak, ain't going to start now, however Tomlin does give up too many long balls, and the homer ball may bite him in the ass.

Was not home all day yesterday, therefore there was no play.
Missed my last play for -115, had Miami with a 3-0 lead, then they though baseball was soccer and kicked the ball for stupid errors and gave the game away.

Can't make excuses, a loss is a loss.
Record now is 4-2-1 and the profit is now 2.68* ( I need to double check that, but it's very close to +$268, I might be off a tad.)

Today in the 4pm eastern time game between Houston and Oakland (Morton vs. Gossett)
I'm wagering Houston on run line - 1.5 at even money (+100)
Morton > Gossett
Houston > Oakland (in offense and defense)

On paper, Houston wins by two runs plus.
On the playing field, I won't know until 7 pm.

Might have a night play later.
For now
Houston (game 1) -1.5 run line +100 1*

SEAHAWKHARRY · 09-09-17, 12:47 PM

Houston offense has been doing very nice of late..im tailing nash got it at -120 though..ugh moving up

stevenash · 09-09-17, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

Houston offense has been doing very nice of late..im tailing nash got it at -120 though..ugh moving up

Yeah, +100 before noon, then -110, -120

I'm expecting big things out of your Russell Wilson this season.
Drafted him in round 7 as my starting QB, for this season and for the first season I'm a Seahawk fan.
(I'm the next round, Graham the tight end is still out there, and I'm drooling, one pick before I'm on the clock, the ass wipe takes him from me, which I knew he would, but damn!)

SEAHAWKHARRY · 09-09-17, 01:23 PM

Hawks gonna do good things this year..im taking the points with Sea tomorrow but waiting to see if the Vegas Sunday Morning drives up the points

stevenash · 09-09-17, 06:05 PM

Man Houston forgot to hit all of a sudden.
Sorry in advance if this game goes down the toilet.

stevenash · 09-12-17, 02:55 PM

Took a couple of days off for football.

I don't have much time today to pound out a thesis I'll get straight to the point.

NY Yankees -1.5 runs run line over TB (Yanks get ninth inning at bat, they are considered a road team at Citi Field)
+115 reduced juice.

a) Yanks hit LH pitching well, Snell isn't a hamburger, but he ain't Koufax either, Yanks should put up five on the Rays.

b) Rays own the lowest wOBA since the All Star Break, and the 3rd highest K rate.

Sonny Gray has been very good for the Yanks, has made seven starts, the only bad one was against the Red Sox, the other six he's given up 2 earned runs or less. Plus a lot of Sonny's pitches misses a lot of bats.

On paper everything adds up to a NYY win.

NYY -1.5 runs +115

Dropped my last two plays, I am 4-3-1 for the month.
+164 (I need to double check, that's about accurate though)(also think Braves can upset Nats tonight, just a lean for now, might be a play)