Need Help on How to Maximize Winnings by Playing Line Moves

[TheGambler]

Here is the situation - My bookie provides lines on Thursday and doesn't account for any line changes that take place over the weekend. For example, the line on Thursday is Dallas Cowboys -3. By Sunday, the line moves to Dallas -5 and I still get it at -3 (approximately -150 but I get it at -110). This holds true for both the game and the total.

There are also many games that get movement right before kickoff, moving the line several points. Once again, I get the original line at all times for -110.

In alll seriousness, what recommendations do you have for me to maximize this? What expected return should I expect if I am getting -130 to -150 lines at the -110 price?

Any advice and insight is greatly appreciated as I have zero math skills!

[Optional]

Bet the other side elsewhere after moves?

[grease lightnin]

Bet the other side elsewhere after moves?

Exactly. Arbitrage.

What is your wager limit?

[unde0087]

If that is the case, how are you not mauling this guy? He is potentially giving you a fieldgoal or more on line changes.

[TheGambler]

To be honest, I have done arbitrage back in the good old days before 2006 and the laws changed. I just remember that when I did arbitrage, mainly with Pinnacle, I would usually end up winning at the other book and losing at Pinnacle. That made sense because I was obviously getting fair price at Pinnacle and great price at the other book. Over thousands of plays, I believe I hit about 58% of the games with the "bad line". My limits are $500 per game and I don't have ability to fund offshore like I used to, it's just too complicated now days. I'm thinking that I should easily hit 55% on these plays so I'm tempted just to play them for the same dollar amount and hope to clear 52.5%.

[dlowilly]

I would say find some books you can sell points at so u can arb instead of trying to middle the spreads. You could go all season and never hit a few point middle and be out the juice.

Also bet the favorable stale money line and just keep all the action, don't try to arb it. That will be a sure money maker for the season

[RudyRuetigger]

what should you do?

bet the fukkin weak line

you guys saying arbitrage are fukkin amateurs

[TheGambler]

Okay, sounds like I should just make the plays on the stale lines and hope for the best!

[RangeFinder]

Just bet the bad lines, over the long haul you'll be okay. Yes, you will have losing weeks, even month's, but you will win long term with the right BR management.

[d2bets]

The most important questions are what are the limits (and what can you get away with) and what is your bankroll?

Assuming sufficient bankroll, bet as much as you can get away with on the bad line. If that unit is too high in comparison to what you can afford, then middle/arb some portion (but not all) back the other way.

You will not lose. But your goal is to make as much as possible, right? Again though, you may have to consider your bookie's threshold for pain and whether he might catch on and cut your off.

[pimike]

Hey buddy!! Good 😊 d to see you!!


Call or text me bro.

[jjgold]

Thread over
Rudy sharp

what should you do?

bet the fukkin weak line

you guys saying arbitrage are fukkin amateurs

[dlowilly]

You may go the whole season without those extra few points making a difference with the spread. I would find a book I could buy points, get a nice signup bonus you are sure to rollover, and arb the spreads. Whatever you do bet a stale moneyline though within reason. Don't bet a +700 ml because it went down to +600

Also start a thread so you can list your plays and we can follow your progress

[bobbywaves]

My bookie provides lines on Thursday and doesn't account for any line changes that take place over the weekend.

Is your guy in the tri state area by any chance, NJ, PA, or NY?

If so, send me a PM.

[BuckyOne]

You have a gold mine! I think you have to worry about getting kicked out for winning too much if you bet big. So, I say you disguise that you are just attacking value. Try to play some break even value where you think you are on the other side of the public where he likes your bet. Pay attention to his reaction when you play the huge value on whether he groans or not. Oh, and put all your plays in with one bet and if there is late breaking line movement don't call back and pop just that one play. Also, do not play the big value if it is there because an injury issue created the line movement. Be fair in that regard.

If I arbed anything here it would be trying to lose his side of the arb so you can maintain some of your square status and not get kicked out for winning too much. You have to play this like a banjo to maximize what you can win.

[Itsamazing777]

I'm sure he will be just fine with it, and pay you as much as you want every week without complaint...