When you beat Pinnacle's closing line by too much, its not a good thing...

[MaddyMax]

I have noticed that when you beat the closing line by few cents, its +ev in the long run. But anytime when you beat the closing line by a lot ...lets say 25 cents or more, the pick loses more often. Its insane. Especially in baseball.

I had Colorado -1.5 at +110. Closed around -116 and its on it ways to lose. Same for anyone who bet the moneyline early...they beat the closing line by more than 30 points and it will be a stinker if it loses. Should probably hedge in the future.

[The Kraken]

I hate it when I btcl by too much

Kinda like getting dealt aces

[Rich Boy]

Thats crazy talk

[MaddyMax]

I hate it when I btcl by too much

Kinda like getting dealt aces

I am telling you man....i never feel good when the line moves a lot and i hold a very nice line. I convince myself not to hedge because i am holding a nice +ev line but in these situations my bets lose more often than not. it sucks because each time it presents a hedge situation for some sure money.

[lonegambler23]

or when over unders in euroball go up by like 5-10 pts

[2daBank]

One baseball season few years back it got to the point I chilled betting overnights and started fading moves over 20 cents pretty much blind after long stretch of losing games I beat closer by large amount like you saying.

Eventually I think it balanced itself out some and really wasn't my style so I got back to business as usual firing when I see value and being happy if I smoke the closer. Havnt tracked it much since then but it always in back of my mind when I do get better of number by 20-30 cents or more.

I want to believe that it can't possibly be a bad thing and as I did then right now you just noticing a temporary amnomoly that will eventually correct itself and once again you can be happy about how well you did to get better of the number by that much!!

[TheMoneyShot]

I have noticed that when you beat the closing line by few cents, its +ev in the long run. But anytime when you beat the closing line by a lot ...lets say 25 cents or more, the pick loses more often. Its insane. Especially in baseball.

I had Colorado -1.5 at +110. Closed around -116 and its on it ways to lose. Same for anyone who bet the moneyline early...they beat the closing line by more than 30 points and it will be a stinker if it loses. Should probably hedge in the future.

I'm a big believer in stuff like this. Every book moves differently... and clearly you're onto something at Pinny.

[2daBank]

Of course if you a far more patient man than me you could continue playing overnights attempting to beat close then when you do proceed to scalp those bitches and lock in your small profit before 1st pitch and don't have to care who wins game

[jjgold]

Beat closer and bet you lose long term

No such thing anymore as edges

Parity and unpredictable athletes makes it impossible

[Sam Odom]

Would like to read NoCoin's assessment

[lakerboy]

Been saying this for years but I keep hearing that pinny had a bigger market so they would hold out longer. I never believed that and felt they were overcharging on the other side

[indio]

Wow, the level of idiocy in this thread is mind boggling. It truly is. Perhaps a few of you should try to understand what variance really is in regards to distribution.

[jjgold]

guys do you realize nobody would work if you just use pinny lines to bet at other books??????????

Also betting overnights and hoping for scalps you will get destroyed ....most lines will not move your way or not enough to create enough scalps all you do is eat lots and lots of juice

[Sam Odom]

Also betting overnights and hoping for scalps you will get destroyed ....most lines will not move your way or not enough to create enough

flipping a coin would yield 50%

avg capper would do better... would it be enough to cover the buy backs + a little profit - depends

[jjgold]

It's very risky bending over nights thinking you're going to bet the other side the next day almost impossible to know which way a line is going to move

[cyp213]

I cant agree more with that statement @indio.

[funnyb25]

A long while ago there use to be a good tip in reference to matchbook and pinnacle. We hit it hard for a while then it got caught on to and went bust. Anyone remember that?

This was like 7-8 years ago.

[jjgold]

all things even out

nobody has the bankroll and can sustain loses of +Ev bets

[TommieGunshot]

Beat closer and bet you lose long term

I'll take that bet for the max

[TommieGunshot]

guys do you realize nobody would work if you just use pinny lines to bet at other books??????????

Beating pinnacle's take back at other books, is doing work. And like most other work, it is a way to earn income for anyone willing to do it.

[Sam Odom]

Would like to read NoCoin's assessment

[TommieGunshot]

all things even out
nobody has the bankroll and can sustain loses of +Ev bets

Anyone with a bankroll can sustain loses and see virtually indefinite growth, making +EV bets. If your statement was correct, casinos and sports books that make continuous +EV bets would always go out of business. The only requirement is to understand the math behind the correct bet size. This comment shows that you do not fall in that category.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Beat closer and bet you lose long term

No such thing anymore as edges

Parity and unpredictable athletes makes it impossible

Your flawed logic is why you will always be sbr’s puppet.

[jjgold]

Gritter thank you

[asiagambler]

If you truly believe so, then just buyback at close.

For the record though, you are wrong.