Nicky I took some of your advice.....

[icsky3]

You always say fuk trends, fuk past stats, fuk it all. So.... I have. Recently in baseball (the last month) I have taken that in and just started picking who I think will win. I do this as quickly as I can every single day. Sometimes I beat the closing # and sometimes I don't, but the whole key to this idea you have given me is fuk it... so fuk it.

Nicky, pal I'm serious here man. Nicky look at my spreadsheet for baseball it's retarded how easy this is. Nicky THANK YOU for making my sports gamlbing life so much more relaxing and handicap free. Nicky pal you are a fuking genius

Just want to say thanks Nicky

[Nicky Santoro]

thanks buddy, may you never have another losing day.

stats really mean shit in gambling.. that's why there's a line or a thread.. all those stats are already applied into the lines..

People that look at stats all day long make me laugh. they really are wasting their time.

[jellobiafra]

It's not gonna last. You might as well just flip a coin if that's all you're doing. He can say fuk trends, stats, and everything. That's fine. But just because he was a failure at handicapping doesn't mean it's not possible to be successful. I can tell you for a fact your method is not going to prove profitable over the long run.

Good luck though.

[icsky3]

In baseball I think it will Jello, as in other sports with more of a "point spread" it may not... We shall see

[englishmike]

Santoro: This beating the closing number buisness, how do you know you're going to beat it?

Say team A is -105 and it moves to -108 and then goes back to -105 and closes at -103, what number did you get and at what point did you get it?

Just curious. It strikes me that beating the closing number is no different to capping the games, you guess a line will move or has moved and guess it will stay there or be even better, but if it moves the other way you're on the wrong side.

Is that right or not?

[raydog]

you paid sam his poker money yet?

[jellobiafra]

Maybe. I wish you luck with your rapid fire selection process. I really do. It looks like you are enjoying some early success, so what do I know?

I do believe you can handicap totals in baseball using stats and trends and all the other stuff that requires actual effort to make selections. I think you can do this especially with unders because I actually believe overs are much more of a luck bet. But with unders, I think with the proper eye to indicators that are important you can find a game or two a day where the pitchers should be expected to perform better than the line has them predicted to against the respective lineups they are facing. Just my opinion....

[Nicky Santoro]

guessing where a line is going to close is impossible.. some will go for you, some will go against you. i usually bet off #'s or when i get a call from my guys.

just look at justin7. .he always makes vids about having to beat the closing # to win at gambling.. he does all the research of stats all the time.. he handicaps teams, ptichers, bullpens, you name it.

today, he gives CLE +154.. 5 min after, CLE closes at +170.. he's given like 4 picks that i have seen and all 4 have moved big time against him.

Even he has a hard time predicting which direction a line will go.. I can't get everyone right, but I will say that of all my bets.. 15% move against me.. 15% i get the closing price.. and 70% of the time, i will beat the closing #.. and i only beat it cause i get a phone call from my guys or i find weak #'s that i play offshore or with my locals..

no one can predict this stuff. things happen every second

[englishmike]

Right, thats what I thought, so on that basis could it be argued that trying to beat the number is no different to capping the games? One person tries to beat a number, another tries to work out bullpen stats but the end result is the same, both are guessing.

[Nicky Santoro]

Right, thats what I thought, so on that basis could it be argued that trying to beat the number is no different to capping the games? One person tries to beat a number, another tries to work out bullpen stats but the end result is the same, both are guessing.

with the naked eye, or by looking at stats, no one can do it.. IMPOSSIBLE..

i've seen games in NBA with totals of 191 and you see that both teams are very high scoring and have no D and you say to yourself..whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?? how is that total only 191? it should be 206..

then you bet the over 191 thinking you are stealing, and guess what... line went down to 189 now.. and closes at 187.5.. go figure..

there's a reason why that line went down.. linesmakers know something we dont..

btw, final score.

91-82.. waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay under...

[englishmike]

OK, so beating a closing line is basically assuming a line maker knows more than we do and backing his judgement because invariably he's right?

[jellobiafra]

with the naked eye, or by looking at stats, no one can do it.. IMPOSSIBLE..

i've seen games in NBA with totals of 191 and you see that both teams are very high scoring and have no D and you say to yourself..whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?? how is that total only 191? it should be 206..

then you bet the over 191 thinking you are stealing, and guess what... line went down to 189 now.. and closes at 187.5.. go figure..

there's a reason why that line went down.. linesmakers know something we dont..

btw, final score.

91-82.. waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay under...

Nicky, maybe the linesmakers really know the sport they're handicapping and have a better idea what to expect than 99% of the people betting it. Yeah, if all you're doing is looking about a number than seems low because the teams score more than that.... well yeah you're gonna get crushed playing your games that way. If that's how you used to handicap I don't blame you for switching to the way you do things now.

[sickler]

guessing where a line is going to close is impossible..

I take it you don't bet openers. That's where the best number is often found.

That would be anticipating line movement and it's nowhere close to "impossible".

[jellobiafra]

Not to mention, that's exactly what the OP says he's doing now (seeing a number that looks right/wrong and reflexively betting it) thanks to your advice. And you're patting him on the back for it....

[englishmike]

I find this interesting because I've never cared which way a line moves but if I look at a soccer match and a team is +ev I'd beable to tell you if it's a fair price or not and if I feel it is I play it, if not I don't. I've never seen the point of tracking public money (which is what 99% of line movement is caused by in soccer) when that public money could be wrong.

[jellobiafra]

Well since Nicky was never successful picking winners, it's therefore IMPOSSIBLE.

[Nicky Santoro]

Well since Nicky was never successful picking winners, it's therefore IMPOSSIBLE.

yeah, and i assume you can predict winners? maybe i'll just call you jimmy the greek?

i bet more than half your games move against you..

what am i saying, you're a pro, jimmy.. you can predict winners easily...

[englishmike]

Jello, chill man, I'm interested in this stuff.

[sickler]

Nicky, I read your post wrong. Been a long day. Saw it as "guessing where a line is going is close to impossible". Much different meaning than what you actually posted. Disregard my above post.

[jellobiafra]

yeah, and i assume you can predict winners? maybe i'll just call you jimmy the greek?

i bet more than half your games move against you..

what am i saying, you're a pro, jimmy.. you can predict winners easily...

No. Not easily at all. But with a lot of work it's possible to be profitable handicapping. I respect what you do, but you're so dismissive of what many of the rest of us do. Like we're idiots to imagine we can have success handicapping games because you were never able to.

No offense intended. I just take a little offense at your characterizations of handicappers. I put in a lot of work trying to pick a winner or two a day and to read you say you just laugh at people like me is a bit irritating.

[MonkeyF0cker]

OK, so beating a closing line is basically assuming a line maker knows more than we do and backing his judgement because invariably he's right?

When you talk about beating a closing number, you're talking about high volume books like Pinnacle, Cris, Oly, or Matchbook. In these cases, it's not as much the linesmaker that's making that determination as it is the market. These books have high enough volume that their markets are fairly efficient and are determined by the betting public. If the market has enough volume to be deemed efficient, then the no-vig closing number is assumed to be the true odds of the game. If you beat the no-vig closer in these markets, you have an edge. You can beat the closer by a couple of different methods. One is by handicapping the games by way of a probability model. You find what you assume to be numbers that give you value. The people that use this method are the ones that initiate the steam. They find value in the current lines offered and the linesmakers subsequently move the line to take away that perceived value. If your model is profitable, you'll be able to beat the closer more often than not. It doesn't mean you'll find value in every line obviously. The method that Nicky subscribes to is simply steam chasing. After sharps have bet particular sides and moved the lines, there are other books that possibly aren't as efficient and don't move on air (moving their numbers along with books of higher efficiency). You can bet those numbers at these types of books. That doesn't mean that if you bet a side or total early that the line won't move against you. The problem using this method is that books recognize this and will limit or cut you fairly quickly. Eventually, you aren't left with many options especially in the current offshore environment where reliable books are becoming less prevalent.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No. Not easily at all. But with a lot of work it's possible to be profitable handicapping. I respect what you do, but you're so dismissive of what many of the rest of us do. Like we're idiots to imagine we can have success handicapping games because you were never able to.

No offense intended. I just take a little offense at your characterizations of handicappers. I put in a lot of work trying to pick a winner or two a day and to read you say you just laugh at people like me is a bit irritating.

The guy chases steam. It's not revolutionary. In fact, it means he RELIES on OTHER people who accurately handicap and model the games.

[englishmike]

Interesting stuff. So if my model is to look at a game and intuitively make a decision on what I perceive I know(more so soccer than US sports), is my 'model' flawed because there is nothing more to it than me expressing an opinion and over time my opinion will be wrong more times than it's right?

[StyleQ]

The guy chases steam. It's not revolutionary. In fact, it means he RELIES on OTHER people who accurately handicap and model the games.

Monkey - you're right, it is glaringly obvious that this is what Nicky does. Yesterday, he chastised me for not getting the "best closing line" and that one simple wager seemed to indicate to him that I was not profitable. Interesting, coming from a guy who admits that he is in the hole throughout his career.

That's right - let us disregard all trends, statistics and pertinent information and solely look at line movement... it seems to have worked for Nicky.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Interesting stuff. So if my model is to look at a game and intuitively make a decision on what I perceive I know(more so soccer than US sports), is my 'model' flawed because there is nothing more to it than me expressing an opinion and over time my opinion will be wrong more times than it's right?

Heh. Generally when you talk about a model, it is a statistical formula that uses predictive variables to generate a win probability or total. From there, you can calculate your edge against the line offerings. I would say it'd be very difficult to do as you are matching wits against some intensively formulated algorithms. Is it impossible to do with pure intuition? I couldn't say. If you can beat the closing the number more often than not using this method, then you should be profitable long term. It certainly doesn't seem likely, however.

[MonkeyF0cker]

It would also be rather difficult to quantify your edge unless you arrive at a fair price for that particular side, total, prop, or future yourself.

[englishmike]

Obviously everyone is different and everyone does things the way they think best suits them but I think my point is, the biggest single thing I've learned above all else is proper money management. I would argue that proper money management whilst wagering on a sport you feel you have a good working knowledge of is more important than statistical data or seeking a perceived edge. The second biggest thing I've learned is to bet purely recreationally on sports I either know very little about or can't be bothered to research.

[englishmike]

It would also be rather difficult to quantify your edge unless you arrive at a fair price for that particular side, total, prop, or future yourself.

Exactly. But working out a fair price is arbitory, even with a working model, surely?

[raydog]

Monkey - you're right, it is glaringly obvious that this is what Nicky does. Yesterday, he chastised me for not getting the "best closing line" and that one simple wager seemed to indicate to him that I was not profitable. Interesting, coming from a guy who admits that he is in the hole throughout his career.

That's right - let us disregard all trends, statistics and pertinent information and solely look at line movement... it seems to have worked for Nicky.

he admits that he is in the hole his entire capping career. nicky has arb/scalped so much money off books its nauseating. not as easy to do now, but still possible. nicky has been booted from as many books as anyone for chasing steam as well. style, up until a few years ago, some guys could retire off working both sides of a game. i cant remember how many thousands of games i never even looked or cared to see who was playing

[StyleQ]

he admits that he is in the hole his entire capping career. nicky has arb/scalped so much money off books its nauseating. not as easy to do now, but still possible. nicky has been booted from as many books as anyone for chasing steam as well. style, up until a few years ago, some guys could retire off working both sides of a game. i cant remember how many thousands of games i never even looked or cared to see who was playing

I wouldn't doubt it at all. I never had to wager off-shore until a few months ago when several of my local connections were all shut down. Since then, I have found that the possibility to exploit lines is there for someone who possesses that knack. Knew a man in Toronto who was quite well known in local circles for exactly this. He was very successful at thegreek...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Exactly. But working out a fair price is arbitory, even with a working model, surely?

It's not arbitrary. It's based on predictive variables. Your model has to be backtested for predictive accuracy and should be paper traded for some time to insure its predictive validity. That certainly doesn't mean it will be accurate 100% of the time as there are many variables that cannot be quantified or are simply omitted from consideration in your model. But more often than not, it should be within a certain threshold of accuracy which is measured against an efficient closer.

[englishmike]

I get the predictive variables part of this but would I be correct in assuming there's no template for any particular model, it's something that would be tailored differently by each individual person to suit their own needs but would invariably arrive at the same conclusion and an efficiant models success will ultimately be determined by profit/loss?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Exactly, mike.

[englishmike]

I appreciate your time with this, I'm interested in the theory that goes into this stuff on the basis it's something i've never really paid enough attention to.

Knowledge itself can sometimes be an edge, you can never know too much, so thanks for the input.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No problem, buddy. Take a look in the Think Tank. There's some good info in there that goes into a bit more detail.