This is a Strange Sub-Forum

RangeFinder · 08-06-17, 02:02 PM

K,

I thought we was wiped out myself.

Hey, btw, I have an idea for horse racing models but still figuring out how I'm going to do it. I'm going to try to do it around the betting markets just like your sports models.

If I go crazy, it's your fault. You got my wheels turning, lol.

KVB · 08-06-17, 02:11 PM

I say Go for It and Good Luck Range.

Two things I've posted often come to mind.

1. Keep track of your bets and why you made them. (This could go for keeping track of numbers that trigger bets, even if you don't actually bet...the famous mental bet.)

2. If you understand why the line opens where it does and why it moves to where it closes, you can go a long way toward becoming a long term winner.

Tackle the task Range!

RangeFinder · 08-06-17, 02:53 PM

I'll try. I'm working the Del Mar card today. Got two models far. First one is with standard handicapping parameters which is what I will call the public forecast, the second is with adjustments weighted toward the conditions of the race which is what I will call the true forecast. Both come with odds line on each horse. I will start by averaging the two lines and see what happens. This will exclude any maiden races or any races where three or more horses have never run the surface or distance.

See you in the funny farm.

Waterstpub87 · 08-06-17, 02:58 PM

The big problem with horse racing is the odds move correct? I have no experience with it, other than a few bet races at mountaineer. If that is the case, it is impossible to know if you are making a good bet, because the odds can move towards you, and push all the value out.

If you have a public forecast and a true forecast, wouldn't you bet the larger divergence between them, rather than averaging them? In that way, your odds will accrete as the public bets against you.

RangeFinder · 08-06-17, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Waterstpub87

The big problem with horse racing is the odds move correct? I have no experience with it, other than a few bet races at mountaineer. If that is the case, it is impossible to know if you are making a good bet, because the odds can move towards you, and push all the value out.

If you have a public forecast and a true forecast, wouldn't you bet the larger divergence between them, rather than averaging them? In that way, your odds will accrete as the public bets against you.

Mountaineer odds flip a lot more than Del Mar. Pools are much bigger at the major tracks so you don't see as much fluctuation. There is some, but not nearly as dramatic.

As far as betting the larger divergence between the models, I just started this yesterday and just testing for now. I'd rather error on the side of caution until I'm more confident that this will work.

KVB · 08-06-17, 03:17 PM

You guys are going to get me back to horses, lol. I've been there before, harness racing as well...lol.

Horses can be tough to squeeze money out of because of the rake, but the game is the same. If we're competing against the other players, and not the house, it's good to profile those other players.

I think the key is to track and follow and see what surprises come out.

If you do that while also viewing the market through another lens, in a sense that you are competing against the house, then it could get more interesting.

Then, of course, not only would you have to look very closely at the opener, the most important number, but perhaps be open to the idea that there could be movement that isn't true or designed to influence the bettor.

Obviously, the opener is set to influence the bettor, but that's another post...lol.

It is my belief that you will do much bettor at horses if you are in the business, and in the know, and that is the edge that helps overcome the rake enough to make it worthwhile.

But I haven't watched them too closely in a long time.

RangeFinder · 08-06-17, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by KVB

You guys are going to get me back to horses, lol. I've been there before, harness racing as well...lol.

Horses can be tough to squeeze money out of because of the rake, but the game is the same. If we're competing against the other players, and not the house, it's good to profile those other players.

I think the key is to track and follow and see what surprises come out.

If you do that while also viewing the market through another lens, in a sense that you are competing against the house, then it could get more interesting.

Then, of course, not only would you have to look very closely at the opener, the most important number, but perhaps be open to the idea that there could be movement that isn't true or designed to influence the bettor.

Obviously, the opener is set to influence the bettor, but that's another post...lol.

It is my belief that you will do much bettor at horses if you are in the business, and in the know, and that is the edge that helps overcome the rake enough to make it worthwhile.

But I haven't watched them too closely in a long time.

Yea, that 16% takeout is tough to swallow. I might put in a parameter that I need a 50% edge for a play ( Example, 2-1 would require 3-1 for a play). Only way I could do it until I know what my hit rate is going to be which I won't know for about 10,000 plays.

b1slickguy · 08-06-17, 09:08 PM

Very strange place, KVB.
Posters with zero posts (even though they started threads) and threads without titles.
Twilight zone over there.

KVB · 08-06-17, 11:29 PM

Yeah, no replying to threads either. I didn't read much content but got hung up on the unusual sub forum name.

A strange place indeed. Maybe SBR is keeping track of the shit they ban...lol. It would probably be a good reference.

shari91 · 08-07-17, 07:10 AM

I'd never thought of what that subforum must look like to newer posters at SBR

That used to be an active part of the forum where we'd let people come advertise their crap services and often those people were strictly confined to posting there and nowhere else on SBR. It was a total shitshow but John was lovely enough to allow them free publicity. Eventually he was finally sick of it all and figured if they want to advertise, go somewhere else so they shut that subforum down basically. Now I just use it as a dumping ground so if regular posters have replied to a blatant advertising thread, at least they can go back and see how it progressed until the thread was shut down (and the OP banned). But if a tout thread is too full of links and whatnot that will take me some time to edit out, I just usually waste the thing. Oh and no posts in non-reply subforums count towards your overall post count so that's why often the OP's in there are on zero posts although you can obviously see they have in fact posted. Hope that makes sense!

jjgold · 08-07-17, 07:40 AM

If you guys want me to moderate that forum let me know I can get the job very very easily

shari91 · 08-07-17, 07:48 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

If you guys want me to moderate that forum let me know I can get the job very very easily

I'd go in asking for a massive raise to mod that forum. Maybe add the PZ into your pitch when you go in the office. Two forums that no one can post in are a perfect place for your talents!!

Auto Donk · 08-07-17, 09:54 AM

think tank?

reminds me of when JJ Gold was all over my "TWINK TANK" Thread.....

Auto Donk · 08-07-17, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by shari91

I'd go in asking for a massive raise to mod that forum. Maybe add the PZ into your pitch when you go in the office. Two forums that no one can post in are a perfect place for your talents!!

I'd like to apply for the job.....

I have the stomach and experience for handling this type of trash.... particularly since I post most of it in the first place....