Just out of curiosity do you guys watch CFL? And do you enjoy it?
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I've been watching most of the games on WatchESPN. They have almost every game.
Because of this thread, I've tried to stay on top of watching it.Comment -
I don't watch it too much. I go to the occasional game here in Ottawa. I much prefer NFL.Comment -
I picked up OVER 47.5 (-119) LIVE for Ottawa vs. Saskatchewan.
Good Luck.
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I'll strike once with the LIVE over play.
I get the feeling Saskatchewan wins this game by 3 points.
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Last week we saw 3 upsets against the moneyline. That's the first time this season there have been at least three upset wins in a single week. In the first two weeks of the season, every underdog covered but each week only saw two upset winners against the close.
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I agree with you KVB. I think Sask wins by three so I tool the ML. BIG.
Sask, don't let me down!Comment -
I'm also okay with Sask winning big time as to not sweat this one out.
2H will be high(er) scoring and will challenge the original total.Comment -
Dang so many good field position wasted by the riders in the first half. The game should be more like 14 points now, not 6.
I know Ottawa stayed out west, but it’s almost midnight in Ottawa. I hope their body clock wears them out nComment -
I know my body clock is wearing me out
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Those late points at the end of the half were good for me, but watching the live lines it feels more like a 46 point game. I think it still goes over the closer but I didn't like how they stretched it out so much before the two TD's.
It's not so good for that Sask moneyline. Like HngKng said, Saskatch should be up more. The sharp forecast was right against the moneyline in game one, but wrong against the spread.
I would think that the moneyline prediction needs to be failing as this season closes down, it's just part of the give and take. But I guess I keep saying that. This game is a tough one with new convincing metrics either way.
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Is it just me or does this feel like a 2 point Sask win? ML cashes, dog spread and over. 29-27 Sask.Comment -
The sharp forecast says:
Winnipeg wins with 30 or 31 points to British Columbia’s 20 or 22 points.
Toronto wins with 33 or 34 points to Edmonton’s 24 points.
The stacking forecast says:
Winnipeg wins with 28 points to British Columbia’s 24 points.
Toronto wins with 28 points to Edmonton’s 24 points.
The public gauge shows:
Winnipeg wins 31-28.
Edmonton wins 30-27
Those are the other forecasts and numbers. The only thing to say now is that every number points to the dog with Toronto and both forecasts predict the upset. It’s tough to predict the flow of money tomorrow, but that’s already looking like pretty generous upset given the last six games. It just doesn’t seem realistic. Then again, neither did Philly in the NFL on Thursday night, but they won outright.
It just seems like Edmonton is in an interesting spot here. It’s also the third straight final game of the week in a row for them.
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BetOnline looks like they've hung a Winnipeg -7 line, but nobody else is reporting a line for that game.
Edit, The Greek and a couple of others are already showing the 6 and 6.5, pulling off the 7 towards the forecasts.Comment -
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Talk about a sense of give and take with Calgary, who went on a streak of covering and winning games.
The first game against Montreal they lost, the rematch they blew them out. With the first game against Hamilton it was a blowout, but with the rematch Hamilton covered.
There's always a story, always some history.Comment -
I was reluctant to take the Overs today because of the line movement and just used betpoints. I looked to make up the movement live in the first game and had no choice for the second game. The game tipped off before Hamilton’s two point conversion, which assured the Over result.
It worked out well today.
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Wow is all I can sayComment -
That PI call with 4 seconds left is a disgrace for American football. Outright disgustingComment -
Matt Nichols starting at QB for the Bombers today.Comment -
The sharp forecast shows the favorite here while the other numbers point to the underdog. The line opened between the forecasts and seems a pretty sharp. That said we’ve seen it move through the 6, away from the sharp forecast.
It seems like a move to create steam on the Underdog and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Winnipeg cover here, even though I expect the sharp forecast to slide a bit. The line move to -5.5 is similar to the placement I mentioned in the first game this week with Calgary -9.5. While this implies the underdog with that same reasoning from that post, there is not enough indication to counter the sharp forecast here and I am passing on any trades. We could see multiple forms of give and take come in this first game with a Winnipeg cover. I think we trust the sharp forecast in this first game.
The Total also opened between the forecasts and the public gauge, with a slight move toward the sharp forecast. Again I expected a Total slide and we could see another Over this morning, with an Under in the second game. This would make the sharp forecast 0-4 for the week and doesn’t seem likely but the CFL can be cold like that, especially in the face of so much sharp forecast success against the spread.
As this game develops I may be seeking the favorite in game two today, as mentioned last night, where the sharp forecast predicts an upset with Toronto.
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Both the sharp forecast and stacking forecast predict the upset moneyline in this game. We are seeing pressure on the 7 point underdog, toward the forecast. This pressure is also consistent with the market seeking a natural settlement with an underdog as Winnipeg looks to cover as the favorite in the first game.
We’ve seen some settlement with this Winnipeg cover in the first game and it adds to the risk of seeking a settlement for this second game, especially on the underdog.
Without saying much more, I’ve countered the movement and the sharp forecast with Edmonton Eskimos -6 (-103) over Toronto Argonauts.
Good Luck.
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Late points by BC in the first game weren't enough to cover the closing line of 5.5 but the game did push the 6 points picked up early by most houses and technically BC covered the early opener of 7. It's never perfect world.
For the first three games this week the sharp forecast is 1-2 against the opening and 2-1 against the closing spread. It is 2-1 against the moneyline and 1-2 against the Totals.
For the final game this week the sharp forecast predicts the upset and Over.
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I'm on the over 54 in the Toronto game.Comment -
Good Luck Canuck, it seems like Over was a popular play but I feel like the money is more split. It's a tough one to read.
This week has been a bit tricky with these lines in general, they seem a bit tight, until tonight's moneyline and spread, which seems a bit off.Comment -
Well the Toronto moneyline failed after all, but they managed to cover the spread making the sharp forecast 3-1 against the closing spread, 2-2 against the moneylines and 2-2 against the Totals this week.
Since failing three times against the spread in week 12, the sharp forecast is 15-3-1 against the closing spread. (14-4-1 against the openers)
That's pretty solid for this part of the second half of the season.
Like I said, prepare for the 4 pick parlay in the final week that counters the sharp forecast in every game...lol.
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thanks KVB for the insightsComment -
The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 23 points to Saskatchewan’s 10 points.
The stacking forecast says Calgary wins with 36 points to Saskatchewan’s 16 or 17 points. Basic numbers can yield a 7 to 12 point Calgary win in games from the upper 40’s to lower 50’s and the public gauge has Calgary winning 31-17.
The line opened at -10 and we’ve seen a tick to -9.5 away from the forecast. I still believe Calgary will be cruising to finish out the season but that alone is not reason to take Saskatchewan. Both teams have motivation to win as Saskatchewan wants in the playoffs and Calgary seeks the #1 seed in the west, and that may certainly point to an underdog bet with this high line.
Further, while there is an expectation for the sharp forecast to fail against the moneyline and spread, there isn’t enough in the metrics to warrant the upset play.
This is the first game this week and I am passing on countering the forecast with a trade despite some expectations I have with this game.
In terms of the Total, I am not pressing the sharp forecast with a bold play and again don’t have enough to counter it with trade either.
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I'm short for time tonight so that's all I've got, just the forecasts. There were a few areas I did want to touch upon but we'll tonight's game see which direction I look for the next games.
I hope I don't regret passing on the Saskatchewan moneyline tonight. Good Luck whatever you play.
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One thing I forgot to mention was that Saskatchewan had a fight in practice on Monday, causing some distractions.
Duron Carter, a Saskatchewan receiver, was involved in the fight, which may have been encouraged by coaches, and he is also going to be starting on both offense and defense tonight.
He will start at DB. The fight on Monday occurred after it was decided Carter would start at DB as he was practicing the spot before the fight.
Distractions in SSK never good for a team, especially this time of season.Comment -
Good points KVB
You may be dialed in on this next oneComment
