I'm going to take a stab at MTL +7.5 -125 live.
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Cheers KVB!!! I'd like to feast on a win or two to compliment the food and family.
I'm going to take a stab at MTL +7.5 -125 live.Comment -
Well, on to the next game. This was a disaster.Comment -
Exactly HngKng, there’s some Edmonton success here; but they’ve covered in their some losses. They get the Thanksgiving win, but it really was more about the Montreal failure. It’s one reason I focused so much on Montreal this game. We’ll look again for that relief in pressure from the market.
I always hate to lead early when countering the forecast because it’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.
The resilient sharp forecast finished 3-1 against the spread, 2-2 against the moneyline, and 2-2 against the Totals.
The sharp forecast has only had one other week with two moneyline failures, the “disastrous” week 12. Another week is coming; I hope we can sniff it out.
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I would have much rather seen Edmonton kick a field goal to take the lead today. Had that happened, I would have been buying Montreal live.
I may have regretted it, but that's how I would have traded it.
Not a bad weekend overall for everyone in this thread, good work guys.
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Thank you KVB for all the excellent insight you provide each week.Exactly HngKng, there’s some Edmonton success here; but they’ve covered in their some losses. They get the Thanksgiving win, but it really was more about the Montreal failure. It’s one reason I focused so much on Montreal this game. We’ll look again for that relief in pressure from the market.
I always hate to lead early when countering the forecast because it’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.
The resilient sharp forecast finished 3-1 against the spread, 2-2 against the moneyline, and 2-2 against the Totals.
The sharp forecast has only had one other week with two moneyline failures, the “disastrous” week 12. Another week is coming; I hope we can sniff it out.
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Hello everyone,
We are under 2 hours from some CFL tonight.
I am liking the Over in Calgary @ Hamilton. Small lean on Hamilton +10.0
Saskatchewan -3.0Last edited by Hngkng; 10-13-17, 04:22 PM.Comment -
I'm liking Sask ML -165 and Over Calgary over 52 -110Comment -
Common you CFL sharps...need a winner today...BOL to everyoneComment -
The sharp forecast has Calgary winning with 24 or 25 points to Hamilton’s 13 points.
The stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 33 or 34 points to Hamilton’s 17 points. Many unsophisticated methods have Calgary winning by more than 20 points with Totals from 47 to 52 and the public gauge has Calgary winning 34-14.
I’ve mentioned that Calgary is coming off of covering the largest line of the year and how I expect there to be consequences. This line has been hanging at -9.5, and as can be the case with numbers like -5.5, the hook shy of the higher number can encourage bets on the favorite. This is especially true of more sophisticated decision makers that are directed by the value in the lines. Those bettors can be very sharp, but I am countering all the forecasts here, and risking once again against Calgary with Hamilton Tiger-Cats +9.5 (-105) over Calgary Stampeders.
Let’s see if Calgary can handle the pressure created when you cover the highest line of the year (what they bring) with style (how they bring it).
I’m just passing on countering the forecast with an OVER bet because as it is the first game of the day and week, but notice that the gauge and sharp forecast agree with an Under while the stacking forecast is Under but basically sidelined. The public likes the Over and sees that these teams have potential to score and Hamilton the potential to give some up.
In reality though, the teams have gone to extremes recently in scoring and stats and when you weed out those extremes, things like the sharp forecast can remind us of a more even keel of who the teams are. I’m passing on the Over because both teams can bring the defense and use it to win in spite of the offensive capabilities. We can learn more by just watching what they bring instead of speculating on how they’ll bring it in this first of first games where we have two days of two games each.
That said, as usual in the first game, we could see ambiguity by kickoff, even if the game begins one sided.
Good Luck.
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Good luck on the Over with this game. From a pure market read, it sure looks like an Over play but I just don't have enough to counter that sharp forecast with a trade.
I think you'll get it, a lot of those early bold losses I had should be coming back around, like last week, and this Over is that kind of play.
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The sharp forecast says Saskatchewan wins with 17 or 19 points to Ottawa’s 16 or 17 points. Note there is a possible tie prediction in the forecast and it does have equal probability as with the other predictions, but 3 of those 4 predictions give Saskatchewan a large enough moneyline edge to be given the moneyline prediction. Also note, when Ottawa played Saskatchewan two weeks ago, there was a similar sharp forecast with both a tie and winner predicted. In that game, Saskatchewan was favored by 3 but Ottawa was forecast to win; Saskatchewan won the game by a point.
The stacking forecast says Saskatchewan wins with 27 points to Ottawa’s 24 points. Less sophisticated numbers show Saskatchewan winning in less than 3 points with a total about 52 and the public gauge says Saskatchewan wins 26-22.
These numbers line up with regard to the offered Total in virtually the same way as the first game tonight. While this might imply a natural settlement with give and take in regards to the Total I would be more cautious.
There are indications that the sharp forecast could slide among the Totals and we could easily see two Overs coming today. Once again I certainly won’t be pressing the sharp forecast with bold Under plays.
The line is pretty tight here with Ottawa and Saskatchewan and the spread and moneyline become a different read. We have time before making a decision with this game.
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I got Tabbies +10 and over 51. They've been playing great and are obviously in desperation mode. That 60-1 pasting should be all the motivation they need to at least stay under the number.Comment -
I was looking for a better number on the OVER in the LIVE markets but that quick TD ended that search.
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I picked up Hamilton Tiger Cats +14.5 (-119) LIVE over Calgary Stampeders.
Good Luck
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I picked up OVER 49.5 (-119) LIVE for Calgary vs. Hamilton.
Good Luck.
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KVB
which sportsbook do you use for live betting CFL? I mostly use betonline, but they don't always offer livebetting cflComment -
Oh my....
no offense in the first game.
Line went up to -3.5, but taking Saskatchewan -3.5.
Brad Sinopoli scratched today for OttawaLast edited by Hngkng; 10-13-17, 08:44 PM.Comment -
As it becomes evident the underdog may cover the first games spread, we have seen the line on the favorite in game two grow from -3 to -3.5.Comment -
Sinopoli out also looking to add slight pressure to the favorite as well.
I'm passing on this second game. The lines are tight and both the Total and moneyline are still being tested in the first game.
With the move to +3.5, Ottawa is technically being predicted against the spread by the sharp forecast but the moneyline is on Saskatchewan.
Ottawa could be in trouble here.
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Could get a late TD for OT in game 1Comment -
Need the TD for the Over!!! C'monComment -
Bingo!Comment -
50-50!!
we shall win!
go riders now!Comment -
The spread in this game was never really in question but the Total was just decided and the moneyline is still in question as we approach game two kickoff.
With such a tight line in the second game is anyone surprised that the moneyline in game 1 is undecided by the 2nd game kickoff?
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