Anyone have MLS data?
The more years the better...
In particular, I'd like a score log that shows which minute each goal is scored.
In particular, I'd like a score log that shows which minute each goal is scored.
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covers has it for the past 5 years. should be easy enough to scrape.Comment -
NO--DATA
but short term, I can tell you we've paid out many many many DRAW--TICKETS in MLSComment -
Look at the standings. Out of 75 games 31 ended draws. Draws pay between +240 to +340. I'm being conservative and assuming that all draws were +250.
If you played all games as draws for $100 you spend $7500 (with juiced already counted).
31 X +250 = $10850 - $7500 = $3350
So even with the very conservative approach of all draws being equal at +250 when clearly some of them were at much higher odds especially when the favorite was chalk you could have made $3350 just by betting all games as draws. Now if your bet size was $1,000 per game you could have been up $33500 in 2 months.
Someone needs to verify my math but if someone wants to make money in MLS the easiest way is to bet draws week after week.Comment -
40% of games this season are ending in draws
65% of games are going under 2.5 goals
betting 2K per game on each of these this season you would no longer need to bet ever again.Comment -
Thanks Racer
31--Draws, wow, I knew there were many but did not know 31 of 75 IE almost 41.5%
Thanks for the research . . . .Comment -
Originally posted by pavyracer
nice returnComment -
If you concentrated only on these four teams it would have been even better:
Los Angeles 8 draws from 10 games
Columbus 6 draws from 9 games
DC United 7 draws from 11 games
Chicago 6 draws from 10 games
This is unreal! (some of these games may have been between these teams so the draws count twice)Comment -
Very interesting thread. I never even thought about betting soccer. But hey if it makes money then why not.
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"THE--DRAW" is extrememly underated in my opinion for this one reason
who the hell wants to wager on an event & Hope for a "TIE"
answer = very few People
Reality is 0-0 & 1-1 is a Pretty decent % of how Professional and even high School & college games end up (after 90-min of play)
The draw is a great wager .........
even Better if a Draw in many cases will Benifit one of the Sides
Meaning DRAW = them advancing to next round etc etcComment -
Tommorow's game between Col/SJ is at +325 draw at matchbook. Haven't bet it yet just wondering how much to put down.
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Originally posted by dreamjobTommorow's game between Col/SJ is at +325 draw at matchbook. Haven't bet it yet just wondering how much to put down.
Realize that Columbus is much better squad than San Jose
at +325 it's not worth more than $100 (in my opinion)
as Columbus is Much Much Better & Should win
That said 1-1 is Possibility in almost ANY MLS--GAME
meaning Columbus WON'T LOSE, but could very well "DRAW"
Good Luck!Comment -
Originally posted by BETFIRSTCLASS
Thanks a lot Bet, but my bankroll is nowhere near betting $100 a game. 5 or 6 no draws would cripple my bankroll. I probably bet around $20 or so.
Best of luck to you too.
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MLS fans/experts speculate that the draw trend might stem from expansion and the fact that the playoffs isn't a given anymore. Four teams used to qualify from each conference and the league has gone from 10 to 14 teams. So qualifying isn't as easy as before, and more away teams are happy with the "win at home, draw away" philosophy.
But this trend might even out soon enough as they're almost 1/3 through the season. 1-1 draws have been the norm so far, trend is significant enough that everyone is noticing.
1. Don't bet on San Jose away, they are horrific. 0-4.
2. Seattle has drawn their last 4 games.
3. Chicago are undefeated overall and Chivas USA is the best team at home.Comment -
Originally posted by ZXCVBNM
my point exactly, you take a team that is content with a DRAW & they pack 8-9 people in back 1/3 field they are very very hard to beat ..........
I have great friend that won 4 High School Boys STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS with very very AVG--SQUADS that used this same Philosophy play for P-KICKS & hope to get luckyComment -
There is a old coach who use to coach the Italian national team who is credited with this philosophy, cant think of his name. It is a great stragey if you have a pair of strikers who work well together and have exceptional talent, and let them roam the field and create among themselves.Originally posted by BETFIRSTCLASSComment -
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Oh dear. Historically speaking, the draw is an AWFUL bet. This season is an anomoly thus far. I have every MLS game since inception (sorry, Justin, nothing like you mentioned for live betting, though I'd also love to have this info), and draws occur 23.9% of the time from 1996-2008 (counting any game that went to shootout early on as a draw). That's a +318 line. Hell, bump it to 25% and you'd still need +300 just to break even, and I've never ever seen a draw line that high. Further, in my analysis, the draw runs a random pattern with no real discernable predictability. Avoid the draw bet. It's one of the worst wagers in all of sports betting.Comment -
In a league with a salary cap with no significant team disparity the draw is the biggest gift to sharp bettors since sliced bread.Comment -
I don't have MLS data. I have studied time of goals in soccer, and have noticed that the quality of players factors in rather heavily. High quality players will turn a big scoring opportunity into a goal a lot more than average quality players. By my preferred standard, MLS is low quality so I stay away. (the same goes for giving goals away due to lack of quality).
Totals may be a different story. The league averages per different league could present opportunities. In Europe I would look at the Dutch and Spanish leagues for goals scored, and the Italian league for goals prevented. Totals are almost always preferable to sides, because fewer bettors consider them seriously.Comment -
interestingComment
