We all do it to
Going to try and be more selective on favs and not big juice
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We all do it to
Going to try and be more selective on favs and not big juice -
yup kershaw would of lost yesterday the way dodgers batted and jake of the cubs was dealing but if almora didnt catch the hr who knows they might of lost in extra innings, baseball lot harder to bet than other sports like tennisComment -
Baseball tougher than NFL by farComment -
1-5 to start the year coach, im not happyComment -
No ⚾ easy but in the summer most have lives and can't focus on it. Dogs only thoughComment -
To say you can't bet favs and make money is insane... you just have to be selective and not bet blindly... in the same vein you can't just bet dogs and make money either... be a better capper... plain and simple...
And my advice... bet first 5 innings... penetrate bullpens... most of your research should come on SP/team/batter situational shit anyways... only bet full game if youre betting against a team you know statistically has one of if not the worst bullpens in the game...Comment -
Pulse strong post man
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Not all dogs are created equal!Comment -
On the Royals @ -110 today.Comment -
Faves went 8-1 yesterday...Comment -
damn dodgers yesterday
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Thanks DocComment -
Run Lines is where it's at.Comment -
JJ
STOP complicating the issue
pick winners then pound them - that simpleComment -
Best MLB season I ever had was when Brock was posting games every day and you were jackin off to him JJ
His it aint juice when your winning theory made me some big $$
There really was no one better to fadeComment -
Most of the time yes..RL helps with that most.of the time as long as the favorite is on the road. Losing that half inning isn't a road I'll go down againComment -
futures only dogs.....good luck folksComment -
I feel like losing that half inning is well worth the risk when you're getting plus odds. You can still profit while hitting under 50%.Originally posted by funnyb25Comment -
So far its been chalk city.Comment -
Playing against the Dodgers at big prices vs. lefties might be something to take a look at this year.
Picking up right where they left off last year.Comment -
It's not whether you're betting favs or dogs, but are you getting value. That is the key, not favorite or underdog.
Ask yourselves this question when you are done looking at any one game. If this game were played 100 times, how many times would each team win the game? I don't know how many times I hear people say " I like this team a little" or "I like this team alot". Well, how much is a little, 52%? How much is alot, 60%? You won't know unless you stick a number to it. When you are done sticking a number to it, then check the board and see if you are getting value. It's the only way you are going to beat baseball, or any other sport.Comment -
Sammy I like your approachOriginally posted by Sam OdomComment -
That's the recipe for failure,but you normally learn as you go,that's not always the case with certain punters though sadly.Comment -
Sometimes JJ just spouts nonsense. No need to set arbitrary rules like this.
A bettor should make his own spread or moneyline that is more reflective of reality than the markets, then compare it the offered line. Once the bettor understand why the line opens where it opens and why it moves to where it closes, he will go a long way toward winning long term.
Also, if large moneylines, even when they represent value, are burying a bettor, then it is likely a money management issue.
Risk the same each time on selected plays, don't change the bet size because the price of the bet is more or less. Changing that bet size will change a bettor's breakeven point, usually not for the better.
Managing risk is one of the most important aspects you can employ if a bettor wants to increase winnings or even decrease losses, especially over the long haul of an MLB season.
By laying different prices on favorites to win, say a unit or $100, a bettor is helping the book by keeping the book's risk steady...the unit or $100. Instead, he should try keeping his risk flat and steady, while he let's the book's risk jump all over the place.
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Lets all give this post an "AMEN".Originally posted by KVBSometimes JJ just spouts nonsense. No need to set arbitrary rules like this.
A bettor should make his own spread or moneyline that is more reflective of reality than the markets, then compare it the offered line. Once the bettor understand why the line opens where it opens and why it moves to where it closes, he will go a long way toward winning long term.
Also, if large moneylines, even when they represent value, are burying a bettor, then it is likely a money management issue.
Risk the same each time on selected plays, don't change the bet size because the price of the bet is more or less. Changing that bet size will change a bettor's breakeven point, usually not for the better.
Managing risk is one of the most important aspects you can employ if a bettor wants to increase winnings or even decrease losses, especially over the long haul of an MLB season.
By laying different prices on favorites to win, say a unit or $100, a bettor is helping the book by keeping the book's risk steady...the unit or $100. Instead, he should try keeping his risk flat and steady, while he let's the book's risk jump all over the place.
Very well written KVB. You get an "A+". I knew I could count on you coming in here, lol.Comment -
The only chalk that is lethal are the NY Yankees. They always get more public action than they are worth, just like Notre Dame in NCAAF, Dallas Cowboys in NFL, and Duke in NCAABComment -
Originally posted by Machine Choice
LA Lakers when Kobe was in his prime... they laid 16 a lot - win by 10-12Comment -
Bet -180 and above watch out
It does not workComment -
Unless it's in a 2-team parlay with another heavy fave and you've capped both games properly to avoid trap playsOriginally posted by jjgoldComment -
That's right! ML parlay, limit the juice.Originally posted by Machine Choice
Otherwise look for home dogs, first 5 dogs versus poor hitting clubs, or team totalsComment -
Favorites have a 16-7 W/L record so far.Comment -
means nothingOriginally posted by No coincidencesComment -
I never bet favorites personally, but you can't just paint it with a broad brush like this.Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
Seriously? Dime lines are tougher than 20 cent lines?Originally posted by jjgoldComment
